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We present a mechanism for generating ultralight dark photon dark matter in the early Universe via a dilatonlike scalar field coupled to the dark photon's kinetic term. Energy is initially stored in the condensate of the dilaton, which resonantly produces dark photons when it begins oscillating in the early Universe. While similar scenarios with axion--dark-photon couplings require large coupling coefficients to fully populate the dark photon, the dilatonic coupling features a unique regime: when the dark photon's mass is half that of the dilaton, dark photons are copiously produced even when the dilaton undergoes small-amplitude oscillations. Scenarios consistent with the cosmic microwave background allow for ultralight vector dark matter with mass as light as $10^{-20}$ eV., Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure

The increasingly diverse ecosystem of high-performance architectures and programming models presents a mounting challenge for programmers seeking to accelerate scientific computing applications. Code generation offers a promising solution, transforming a simple and general representation of computations into lower level, hardware-specialized and -optimized code. We describe the philosophy set forth by the Python package Pystella, a high-performance framework built upon such tools to solve partial differential equations on structured grids. A hierarchy of abstractions provides increasingly expressive interfaces for specifying physical systems and algorithms. We present an example application from cosmology, using finite-difference methods to solve coupled hyperbolic partial differential equations on (multiple) GPUs. Such an approach may enable a broad range of domain scientists to make efficient use of increasingly heterogeneous computational resources while mitigating the drastic effort and expertise nominally required to do so.

Pairs of misalignment-produced axions with nearby masses can experience a nonlinear resonance that leads to enhanced direct and astrophysical signatures of axion dark matter. In much of the relevant parameter space, self-interactions cause axion fluctuations to become nonperturbative and to collapse in the early Universe. We investigate the observational consequences of such nonperturbative structure in this "friendly axion" scenario with $3+1$ dimensional simulations. Critically, in a substantial fraction of parameter space we find that nonlinear dynamics work to equilibrate the abundance of the two axions, making it easier than previously expected to experimentally confirm the existence of a resonant pair. We also compute the gravitational wave emission from friendly axion dark matter; while the resulting stochastic background is likely undetectable for axion masses above $10^{-22} \, \text{eV}$, the polarization of the cosmic microwave background does constrain possible hyperlight, friendly subcomponents. Finally, we demonstrate that dense, self-interaction--bound oscillons formed during the period of strong nonlinearity are driven by the homogeneous axion background, enhancing their lifetime beyond the in-vacuum expectation., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures; matches published version

After their generation, cosmological backgrounds of gravitational waves propagate nearly freely but for the expansion of the Universe and the anisotropic stress of free-streaming particles. Primordial signals -- both that from inflation and the infrared spectrum associated to subhorizon production mechanisms -- would carry clean information about the cosmological history of these effects. We study the modulation of the standard damping of gravitational waves by free-streaming radiation due to the decoupling (or recoupling) of interactions. We focus on nonstandard neutrino interactions in effect after the decoupling of weak interactions as well as more general scenarios in the early Universe involving other light relics. We develop semianalytic results in fully free-streaming scenarios to provide intuition for numerical results that incorporate interaction rates with a variety of temerpature dependencies. Finally, we compute the imprint of neutrino interactions on the $B$-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background, and we comment on other means to infer the presence of such effects at higher frequencies., Comment: 33 pages, 8 figures

In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed >1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university.

In the Fall of 2020, many universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening the health of students, faculty and staff, the viability of in-person instruction, and the health of surrounding communities.1, 2 Here we report that a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program mitigated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university, prevented community transmission, and allowed continuation of in-person classes amidst the pandemic. The program combines epidemiological modelling and surveillance (Target); fast and frequent testing using a novel and FDA Emergency Use Authorized low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD (Test); and digital tools that communicate test results, notify of potential exposures, and promote compliance with public health mandates (Tell). These elements were combined with masks, social distancing, and robust education efforts. In Fall 2020, we performed more than 1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests while keeping classrooms, laboratories, and many other university activities open. Generally, our case positivity rates remained less than 0.5%, we prevented transmission from our students to our faculty and staff, and data indicate that we had no spread in our classrooms or research laboratories. During this fall semester, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community. We also prevented transmission from our university community to the surrounding Champaign County community. Our experience demonstrates that multimodal transmission mitigation programs can enable university communities to achieve such outcomes until widespread vaccination against COVID-19 is achieved, and provides a roadmap for how future pandemics can be addressed.

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations., Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization. We derive a nonlinear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of long-lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven by, for example, seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest hit areas, such as New York City, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves.

It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is characterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmission is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of the traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of short-term super-spreader events, such as an individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, we demonstrate that the spread of epidemics is primarily sensitive to longterm, orpersistent heterogeneityof individual susceptibility or infectivity. We demonstrate how to incorporate this heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction numberReon the susceptible population fractionS. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of short-term overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynamics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It also significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago, as well as 50 US states provide a consistent characterization of the level of heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the heterogeneity-modified herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic. However, this type of immunity is fragile as it wanes over time if the pattern of social interactions changes substantially.Significance StatementThis study demonstrates how a wide class of epidemiological models can be adapted for applications to heterogeneous populations in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. It is shown that a persistent heterogeneity, rather than bursty short-term variations in infection transmission is responsible for self-limiting epidemic dynamics. Compact generalizations of the classical results for the herd immunity threshold and the final size of an epidemic are derived. The degree of persistent heterogeneity is estimated from data on real-life face-to-face contact networks, and on age variation of susceptibility to COVID-19. The estimate is further supported by the analysis of the empirical data from the epidemic in NYC and Chicago, as well as in 50 US states. The results suggest that by the end of the first wave of the epidemic, the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, have been close to the heterogeneity-modified herd immunity, thereby limiting their vulnerability to a potential second wave of the epidemic.

During inflation, scalar fields with masses less than the Hubble scale acquire vacuum expectation values (vevs) via stochastic processes driven by quantum fluctuations. For nearly massless spectator scalars transforming nontrivially under a continuous symmetry group, we demonstrate that the evolution of the vev depends on the dimensionality of the scalar field space. Fields in larger representations both attain larger vacuum expectation values and converge more rapidly to equilibrium. We present an argument demonstrating how this higher-dimensional evolution can be obtained in unitary gauge for fields transforming under local symmetries with a mass gap that is small compared to the Hubble scale. Finally, we show that accounting for the full number of degrees of freedom in the Standard Model Higgs multiplet tightens Higgs stability constraints on the inflationary scale at the percent level and has more dramatic consequences for both the vev and the energy stored in the Higgs field after inflation., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures Updated to match version accepted by PRD

We present two different scenarios for a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois and simulate them using our previously described age-of-infection model, calibrated to real-time hospital and deaths data. In the first scenario we assume that the parameters of the second wave in Illinois would be similar to those currently observed in other states such as Arizona, Florida, and Texas. We estimate doubling times of hospitalizations and test positivity in all states with relevant publicly available data and calculate the corresponding effective reproduction numbers for Illinois. These parameters are remarkably consistent in states with rapidly growing epidemics. We conjecture that the emergence of the second wave of the epidemic in these states can be attributed to superspreading events at large parties, crowded bars, and indoor dining. In our second, more optimistic scenario we assume changes in Illinois state policy would result in successful mitigation of superspreading events and thus would lower the effective reproduction number to the value observed in late June 2020. In this case our calculations show effective suppression of the second wave in Illinois. Our analysis also suggests that the logarithmic time derivatives of COVID-19 hospitalizations and case positivity can serve as a simple but strong early-warning signal of the onset of a second wave.

We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable time delays without changing its model topology. Bayesian estimation of model parameters is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This framework allows us to treat all available input information, including both the previously published parameters of the epidemic and available local data, in a uniform manner. To accurately model deaths as well as demand on the healthcare system, we calibrate our predictions to total and in-hospital deaths as well as hospital and ICU bed occupancy by COVID-19 patients. We apply this model not only to the state as a whole but also its sub-regions in order to account for the wide disparities in population size and density. Without prior information on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the model independently reproduces a mitigation trend closely matching mobility data reported by Google and Unacast. Forward predictions of the model provide robust estimates of the peak position and severity and also enable forecasting the regional-dependent results of releasing Stay-at-Home orders. The resulting highly constrained narrative of the epidemic is able to provide estimates of its unseen progression and inform scenarios for sustainable monitoring and control of the epidemic., Comment: The manuscript uses data provided by the Illinois Department of Public Health through a Data Use Agreement with Civis Analytics. The source code for the model is freely available online at https://github.com/uiuc-covid19-modeling/pydemic. v3 includes demonstration of modeling for New York City

We demonstrate that gravitational waves generated by efficient gauge preheating after axion inflation generically contribute significantly to the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom $N_\mathrm{eff}$. We show that, with existing Planck limits, gravitational waves from preheating already place the strongest constraints on the inflaton's possible axial coupling to Abelian gauge fields. We demonstrate that gauge preheating can completely reheat the Universe regardless of the inflationary potential. Further, we quantify the variation of the efficiency of gravitational wave production from model to model and show that it is correlated with the tensor-to-scalar ratio. In particular, when combined with constraints on models whose tensor-to-scalar ratios would be detected by next-generation cosmic microwave background experiments, $r\gtrsim 10^{-3}$, constraints from $N_\mathrm{eff}$ will probe or rule out the entire coupling regime for which gauge preheating is efficient., Comment: v2: 6 pages, 2 figures; matches published version

Scalar metric fluctuations generically source a spectrum of gravitational waves at second order in perturbation theory, poising gravitational wave experiments as potentially powerful probes of the small-scale curvature power spectrum. We perform a detailed study of the imprint of primordial non-Gaussianity on these induced gravitational waves, emphasizing the role of both the disconnected and connected components of the primoridal trispectrum. Specializing to local-type non-Gaussianity, we numerically compute all contributions and present results for a variety of enhanced primordial curvature power spectra., v3: 28 pages, 12 figures; matches published version

We study gravitational wave production from gauge preheating in a variety of inflationary models, detailing its dependence on both the energy scale and the shape of the potential. We show that preheating into Abelian gauge fields generically leads to a large gravitational wave background that contributes significantly to the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom in the early universe, $N_\mathrm{eff}$. We demonstrate that the efficiency of gravitational wave production is correlated with the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$. In particular, we show that efficient gauge preheating in models whose tensor-to-scalar ratio would be detected by next-generation cosmic microwave background experiments ($r \gtrsim 10^{-3}$) will be either detected through its contribution to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ or ruled out. Furthermore, we show that bounds on $N_\mathrm{eff}$ provide the most sensitive probe of the possible axial coupling of the inflaton to gauge fields regardless of the potential., Comment: v2: 23 pages, 10 figures; matches published version

We study gravitational wave production during Abelian gauge-field preheating following inflation. We consider both scalar and pseudoscalar inflaton models coupled directly to Abelian gauge fields via either a dilatonic coupling to the gauge-field kinetic term or an axial coupling to a Chern-Simons term. In both cases gravitational waves are produced efficiently during the preheating phase, with a signature louder than most cosmological signals. These gravitational waves can contribute to the radiation energy budget of Universe at a level which will be probed by upcoming cosmic microwave background experiments through $N_{\rm eff}$. For axially coupled fields the resulting gravitational wave spectrum is helically polarized---a unique feature that can be used to differentiate it from other stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds. We compute the gravitational topological charge and demonstrate that gauge preheating following axion inflation may be responsible for the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe via gravitational leptogenesis., v2: 13 pages, 7 figures; adds discussion of constraints on couplings and matches PRD version

It has been recently suggested that oscillons produced in the early universe from certain asymmetric potentials continue to emit gravitational waves for a number of $e$-folds of expansion after their formation, leading to potentially detectable gravitational wave signals. We revisit this claim by conducting a convergence study using graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated lattice simulations and show that numerical errors accumulated with time are significant in low-resolution scenarios, or in scenarios where the run-time causes the resolution to drop below the relevant scales in the problem. Our study determines that the dominant, growing high frequency peak of the gravitational wave signals in the fiducial "hill-top model" in [arXiv:1607.01314] is a numerical artifact. This finding prompts the need for a more careful analysis of the numerical validity of other similar results related to gravitational waves from oscillon dynamics., v2: 6 pages, 2 figures; matches PRD version

We study preheating in models where a scalar inflaton is directly coupled to a non-Abelian $SU(2)$ gauge field. In particular, we examine $m^2 \phi^2$ inflation with a conformal, dilaton-like coupling to the non-Abelian sector. We describe a numerical scheme that combines lattice gauge theory with standard finite difference methods applied to the scalar field. We show that a significant tachyonic instability allows for efficient preheating, which is parametrically suppressed by increasing the non-Abelian self-coupling. Additionally, we comment on the technical implementation of the evolution scheme and setting initial conditions., Comment: v2: 15 pages, 9 figures; references and minor clarifications added, matches PRD version