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Acoustic waves below the frequency limit of human hearing - infrasound - can travel for thousands of kilometres in the atmosphere. The global propagation signature of infrasound is highly sensitive to the wind structure of the stratosphere. This work exploits processed continuous data from three high-latitude infrasound stations to characterize an aspect of the stratospheric polar vortex. Concretely, a mapping is developed which takes the infrasound data from these three stations as input and outputs an estimate of the polar cap zonal mean wind averaged over 60-90 degrees in latitude at the 1 hPa pressure level. This stratospheric diagnostic information is relevant to, for example, sudden stratospheric warming assessment and sub-seasonal prediction.The considered acoustic data is within a low-frequency regime globally dominated by so-called microbarom infrasound, which is continuously radiated into the atmosphere due to nonlinear interaction between counter-propagating ocean surface waves. We trained a stochastics-based machine learning model (delay-SDE-net) to map between a time series of five years (2014-2018) of processed infrasound data and the ERA5 (reanalysis-based) daily average polar cap wind at 1 hPa for the same period. The ERA5 data was hence treated as ground-truth. In the prediction, the delay-SDE-net utilizes time-lagged inputs and their dependencies, as well as the day of the year to account for seasonal differences. In the validation phase, the input was the 2019 and 2020 infrasound time series, and the model inference results in an estimate of the daily average polar cap wind time-series. This result was then compared to the ERA5 representation of the stratospheric diagnostic time-series for the same period. The applied machine learning model is based on stochastics and allows for an interpretable approach to estimate the aleatoric and epistemic prediction uncertainties. It is found that the mapping, which is only informed of the trained model, the day of year, and the infrasound data from three stations, generates a 1 hPa polar cap average wind estimate with a prediction error standard deviation of around 10 m/s compared to ERA5.Focus should be put on the winter months because this is when the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere can mostly influence the surface conditions and provide additional prediction skill, in particular during strong and weak stratospheric polar vortex regimes. The infrasound data is available in real-time, and we discuss how the developed approach can be extended to provide near real-time stratospheric polar vortex diagnostics.

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE), this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere-land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble-member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble-mean and the preindustrial ensemble-mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability.Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling, the latter with a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) of Arctic winter warming for the present-day (future) climate. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce warming with larger magnitude. Observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the “ozone-recovery” period (2000–2020) at northern high latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significantly positive annual trends at Andøya (0.9±0.7 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5±0.1 % per decade) and no significant annual trend at Oslo (0.1±0.5 % per decade) but significantly positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication of Arctic springtime ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.

The practice of initialized subseasonal, seasonal and decadal climate prediction has matured considerably in recent years, with real-time subseasonal and decadal multi-system ensembles joining those established previously for the seasonal to multi-seasonal range. However, substantial scientific, modelling, and informational challenges remain that must be overcome in order to more fully realize the potential for such predictions to serve societal needs. This presentation will examine five such challenges that the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) has identified as crucial for further advancing capabilities for translating the inherent predictability of the Earth system into actionable predictive information. Surmounting these challenges will bring nearer an envisaged future in which global users have access to such information specific to individual needs, across Earth system components and on a continuum of time scales, with degrees of confidence, limitations and uncertainties clearly indicated, as well as tools to guide optimal actions.

Even though ozone-depleting substances have been substantially reduced due to the Montreal Protocol, it is still not possible to state with confidence that the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) recovers globally. A special focus lies on high latitudes, as they experienced strong stratospheric ozone depletion in the 1980s and 1990s. Especially at northern high latitudes, it is still challenging to detect significant total ozone trends. It is therefore important to use carefully homogenized and stable long-term ozone measurements and advanced trend models to derive ozone trends at northern high latitudes.This study uses ground-based total ozone measurements in Norway and the Arctic to investigate total ozone trends at northern high latitudes. We present combined total ozone time series from Brewer Spectrophotometers at Oslo (60°N) and Andøya (69°N) in Norway, from 2000 to 2020. In addition, measurements from a SAOZ instrument and a Brewer at Ny-Ålesund in Svalbard are used. The combined Brewer time series consist of direct sun (DS) and global irradiance (GI) Brewer measurements and are complemented with measurements from ground-based ultraviolet radiometers (GUV). This makes it possible to obtain measurements during cloudy conditions and in winter and spring, where DS measurements cannot be retrieved due to large solar zenith angles and reduced direct sunlight.We present total ozone trends at the three measurement stations using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) multilinear regression model. We test various explanatory variables and select a set of predictors to obtain the best possible regression fit. We found that besides the commonly used predictors QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle, tropopause pressure and stratospheric temperature are also important to improve the fit. We finally present annual total ozone trends and trends for different months at each station. Despite that the annual trends were generally found to be insignificant, we detected significant trends in some months.We believe that our study contributes to a better understanding of long-term ozone changes at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ozone depleting substances and to climate change.

The stratospheric, tropospheric and surface impacts from the 11 year ultraviolet solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variability have been extensively studied using climate models and observations. Here, we demonstrate using idealized model simulations that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which has been shown to impact the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation from sub-decadal to multi-decadal timescales, strongly modulates the solar-induced atmospheric response. To this end, we use a high-top version of the coupled ocean–atmosphere Norwegian Climate Prediction Model forced by the SSI dataset recommended for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. We perform a 24-member ensemble experiment over the solar cycle 23 in an idealized framework. To assess the PDO modulation of the solar signal, we divide the model data into the two PDO phases, PDO+ and PDO−, for each solar (maximum or minimum) phase. By compositing and combining the four categories, we hence determine the component of the solar signal that is independent of the PDO and the modulation of the solar signal by the PDO, along with the solar signal in each PDO phase. Reciprocally, we determine the PDO effect in each solar phase. Our results show that the intensification of the polar vortex under solar maximum is much stronger in the PDO− phase. This signal is transferred into the troposphere, where we find a correspondingly stronger polar jet and weaker Aleutian Low. We further show that the amplification of the solar signal by the PDO− phase is driven by anomalous meridional advection of solar-induced temperature anomalies over northern North America and the North Pacific, which contributes to a decreased meridional eddy heat flux and hence to a decreased vertical planetary wave flux into the stratosphere. © 2021 The Author(s). Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.

Using the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network observations (clustered around 60°N) and NCAR CESM2.0 extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model nudged with reanalyzes, we examine the climatology of semidiurnal tides in meridional wind associated with the migrating component (SW2) and non‐migrating components of wavenumbers 1 (SW1) and 3 (SW3). We then illustrate their composite response to major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Peaking in late summer and winter, the climatological SW2 amplitude exceeds SW1 and SW3 except around late Fall and Spring. The winter climatological peak is absent in the model perhaps due to the zonal wind bias at the observed altitudes. The observed SW2 amplitude declines after SSW onset before enhancing ∼10 days later, along with SW1 and SW3. Within the observed region, the simulated SW2 only amplifies after SSW onset, with minimal SW1 and SW3 responses. The model reveals a stronger SW2 response above the observed location, with diminished amplitude before and enhancement after SSW globally. This enhancement appears related to increased equatorial ozone heating and background wind symmetry. The strongest SW1 and SW3 growth occurs in the Southern Hemisphere before SSW. SW2 and quasi‐stationary planetary wave activities are temporally collocated during SSW suggesting that their interactions excite SW1 and SW3. After SSW, the model also reveals (1) semidiurnal‐tide‐like perturbations generated possibly by the interactions between SW2 and westward‐traveling disturbances and (2) the enhancement of migrating semidiurnal lunar tide in the Northern Hemisphere that exceeds non‐migrating tidal and semidiurnal‐tide‐like responses. The simulated eastward‐propagating semidiurnal tides are briefly examined. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Eastward-propagating planetary waves (EPWs) were investigated prior to the boreal January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics. About 22 days before SSW onset, a background flow with jet maxima around the upper polar stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere developed due to the net forcing by gravity and planetary waves. The mesospheric wind structure was largely unstable and supported a wave geometry conducive to overreflection. With a zonal phase speed of ∼10 m s−1, EPWs appeared near their turning and critical layers as wavenumber-2 perturbations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Accompanied by upward EPW activity from the lower stratosphere, EPW growth exhibited characteristics of wave instability and overreflection. © 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Observations from the Odin/Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) instrument have been assimilated into the DIAMOND model (Dynamic Isentropic Assimilation Model for OdiN Data), in order to estimate the chemical ozone (O3) loss in the stratosphere. This data assimilation technique is described in Sagi and Murtagh (2016), in which it was used to study the inter-annual variability in ozone depletion during the entire Odin operational time and in both hemispheres. Our study focuses on the Arctic region, where two O3 destruction mechanisms play an important role, involving halogen and nitrogen chemical families (i.e. NOx = NO and NO2), respectively. The temporal evolution and geographical distribution of O3 loss in the low and middle stratosphere have been investigated between 2002 and 2013. For the first time, this has been done based on the study of a series of winter–spring seasons over more than a decade, spanning very different dynamical conditions. The chemical mechanisms involved in O3 depletion are very sensitive to thermal conditions and dynamical activity, which are extremely variable in the Arctic stratosphere. We have focused our analysis on particularly cold and warm winters, in order to study the influence this has on ozone loss. The winter 2010/11 is considered as an example for cold conditions. This case, which has been the subject of many studies, was characterised by a very stable vortex associated with particularly low temperatures, which led to an important halogen-induced O3 loss occurring inside the vortex in the lower stratosphere. We found a loss of 2.1 ppmv at an altitude of 450 K in the end of March 2011, which corresponds to the largest ozone depletion in the Northern Hemisphere observed during the last decade. This result is consistent with other studies. A similar situation was observed during the winters 2004/05 and 2007/08, although the amplitude of the O3 destruction was lower. To study the opposite situation, corresponding to a warm and unstable winter in the stratosphere, we performed a composite calculation of four selected cases, 2003/04, 2005/06, 2008/09 and 2012/13, which were all affected by a major mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming event, related to particularly high dynamical activity. We have shown that such conditions were associated with low O3 loss below 500 K (approximately 20 km), while O3 depletion in the middle stratosphere, where the role of NOx-induced destruction processes prevails, was particularly important. This can mainly be explained by the horizontal mixing of NOx-rich air from lower latitudes with vortex air that takes place in case of strongly disturbed dynamical situation. In this manuscript, we show that the relative contribution of O3 depletion mechanisms occurring in the lower or in the middle stratosphere is significantly influenced by dynamical and thermal conditions. We provide confirmation that the O3 loss driven by nitrogen oxides and triggered by stratospheric warmings can outweigh the effects of halogens in the case of a dynamically unstable Arctic winter. This is the first time that such a study has been performed over a long period of time, covering more than 10 years of observations.

This study investigates the effect of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs) on Planetary Wave (PW) activity in the Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere (MLT). PW activity near 95 km is derived from meteor wind data using a chain of 8 SuperDARN radars at high northern latitudes that span longitudes from 150° W to 25° E and latitudes from 51 to 66° N. Zonal wave number 1 and 2 components were extracted from the meridional wind for the years 2000–2008. The observed wintertime PW activity shows common features associated with the stratospheric wind reversals and the accompanying stratospheric warming events. Onset dates for seven SSW events accompanied by an elevated stratopause (ES) were identified during this time period using the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM). For the seven events, a significant enhancement in wave number 1 and 2 PW amplitudes near 95 km was found to occur after the wind reversed at 50 km, with amplitudes maximizing approximately 5 days after the onset of the wind reversal. This PW enhancement in the MLT after the event was confirmed using SD-WACCM. When all cases of polar cap wind reversals at 50 km were considered, a significant, albeit moderate, correlation of 0.4 was found between PW amplitudes near 95 km and westward polar-cap stratospheric winds at 50 km, with the maximum correlation occurring ~3 days after the maximum westward wind. These results indicate that the enhancement of PW amplitudes near 95 km are a common feature of SSWs irrespective of the strength of the wind reversal.

Acidification of Norwegian surface waters, as indicated by elevated concentrations of sulfate and a corresponding reduction in acid neutralizing capacity and pH, is a result of emission and subsequent deposition of sulfur and nitrogen compounds. Episodic sea-salt deposition during severe weather conditions may increase the effects of acidification by mobilizing more toxic aluminum during such episodes. Changes in climatic conditions may increase the frequency and strength of storms along the coast thus interacting with acidification effects on chemistry and biota. We found that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked to sea-salt deposition and sea-salt induced water chemistry effects in five rivers. Particularly, toxic levels of aluminum in all rivers were significantly correlated with higher NAO index values. Further, temporal trends were studied by comparing tendencies for selected statistical indices (i.e. frequency distributions) with time. The selected indices exhibited strong correlations between the NAO index, sea-salt deposition and river data such as chloride, pH and inorganic monomeric aluminum, pointing at the influence of North Atlantic climate variability on water chemistry and water toxicity. The potentially toxic effects of sea-salt deposition in rivers seem to be reduced as the acidification is reduced. This suggests that sea-salt episodes have to increase in strength in order to give the same potential negative biological effects in the future, if acid deposition is further reduced. More extreme winter precipitation events have been predicted in the northwest of Europe as a result of climate change. If this change will be associated with more severe sea-salt episodes is yet unknown.