1. Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time
- Author
-
Cho, J.-G. and Yum, B.-J.
- Subjects
Program Evaluation and Review Technique -- Evaluation ,Monte Carlo method ,Business ,Business, general - Abstract
For a PERT network, a new method is developed for estimating the criticality index of activity i (AC[I.sub.i]) as a function of the expected duration of activity i ([[mu].sub.i]) and for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time ([[mu].sub.T]) with respect to [[mu].sub.i]. The proposed method evaluates the frequency of activity i being on the critical path, and thereby its AC[I.sub.i] using Monte Carlo simulation or a Taguchi orthogonal array experiment at several values of [[mu].sub.i], fits a logistic regression model for estimating AC[I.sub.i] as a function of [[mu].sub.i], and then, using the estimated AC[I.sub.i] function, evaluates the amount of change in [[mu].sub.T] when [[mu].sub.i] is changed by a given amount. Unlike the previous works, the proposed method models AC[I.sub.i] as a nonlinear (ie, logistic) function of [[mu].sub.i], which can be used to estimate the amount of change in [[mu].sub.T] for a variety of changes in [[mu].sub.i]. Computational results indicate that the performance of the proposed method is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation. Published online 14 April 2004 Keywords: PERT; project management; regression
- Published
- 2004