PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE 10.1002/2016JD025524 Key Points: • 90% of the extreme precipitation events at California site occurred during the negative Arctic Oscillation • Extreme events show diverse isotopic signatures, but composite resembles full study period mean • Strongest precipitation anomalies occur when negative AO, negative PNA, and positive SOI are in sync Supporting Information: • Supporting Information S1 Correspondence to: S. McCabe-Glynn, mccabegs@uci.edu Citation: McCabe-Glynn, S., K. R. Johnson, C. Strong, Y. Zou, J. Y. Yu, S. Sellars, and J. M. Welker (2016), Isotopic signature of extreme precipitation events in the western U.S. and associated phases of Arctic and tropical climate modes, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 8913–8924, doi:10.1002/2016JD025524. Received 28 JUN 2016 Accepted 8 JUL 2016 Accepted article online 26 JUL 2016 Published online 12 AUG 2016 Isotopic signature of extreme precipitation events in the western U.S. and associated phases of Arctic and tropical climate modes Staryl McCabe-Glynn 1 , Kathleen R. Johnson 1 , Courtenay Strong 2 , Yuhao Zou 3 , Jin-Yi Yu 1 , Scott Sellars 4 , and Jeffrey M. Welker 5 Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA, 2 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, 3 Discover Financial Services, Riverwoods, Illinois, 4 Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California, USA, 5 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, Alaska, USA Abstract Extreme precipitation events, commonly associated with “Atmospheric Rivers,” are projected to increase in frequency and severity in western North America; however, the intensity and landfall position are difficult to forecast accurately. As the isotopic signature of precipitation has been widely utilized as a tracer of the hydrologic cycle and could potentially provide information about key physical processes, we utilize both climate and precipitation isotope data to investigate these events in California from 2001 to 2011. Although individual events have extreme isotopic signatures linked to associated circulation anomalies, the composite across all events unexpectedly resembles the weighted mean for the entire study period, reflecting diverse moisture trajectories and associated teleconnection phases. We document that 90% of events reaching this location occurred during the negative Arctic Oscillation, suggesting a possible link with higher-latitude warming. We also utilize precipitation data of extreme precipitation events across the entire western U.S. to investigate the relationships between key tropical and Arctic climate modes known to influence precipitation in this region. Results indicate that the wettest conditions occur when the negative Arctic Oscillation, negative Pacific/North American pattern, and positive Southern Oscillation are in sync and that precipitation has increased in the southwestern U.S. and decreased in the northwestern U.S. relative to this phase combination’s 1979–2011 climatology. Furthermore, the type of El Nino–Southern Oscillation event, Central Pacific or Eastern Pacific, influences the occurrence, landfall location, and isotopic composition of precipitation. 1. Introduction Extreme precipitation events can contribute extensively to replenishing reservoirs and groundwater supplies, though simultaneously, can result in harmful consequences for the U.S. West Coast, including excessive snowfall, flooding, landslides, property damage, and loss of life [Dettinger, 2011; Mass et al., 2011]. One of the most prevalent extreme precipitation events that occur along the west coast of North America are “Atmospheric Rivers” (AR), elongated pathways of extensive atmospheric moisture transport over the ocean which can lead to substantial precipitation and flooding when they make landfall [Ralph and Dettinger, 2011; Ralph et al., 2013]. California’s largest and most severe storms and essentially all major historical floods have been associated with landfalling ARs [Dettinger, 2011]. For example, a strong AR that occurred 17 to 22 December 2010 produced up to 670 mm of precipitation in Southern California [Ralph and Dettinger, 2012] and exceptional snowfall in California’s Sierra Nevada Mountains [Guan et al., 2013]. Another AR in early January 2005 produced more than 1016 mm of rainfall in Southern California in only 4 days, causing wide- spread flooding and a massive mudslide resulting in 10 fatalities. Given that water supply and flood risks in California are strongly linked with AR occurrence and the intensity and landfall position are difficult to fore- cast accurately [Wick et al., 2013], improved short-term forecasts and seasonal model projections of ARs are needed for better planning and mitigation efforts. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. MCCABE-GLYNN ET AL. Extreme precipitation events are projected by most global climate models to become more prevalent as the climate changes [Dettinger, 2011; Hagos et al., 2016], largely due to increased water vapor content in a war- mer atmosphere [Trenberth, 1999]. Multiple climate models project more years with many AR episodes and higher-than-historical water vapor transport rates, indicating that California flood risks may increase beyond those previously known [e.g., Dettinger, 2011; Lavers et al., 2015]. Airborne and ship-borne facilities, modern ISOTOPIC SIGNATURE OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION