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Based on an extended production function, this paper finds that the turning point of the government debt ratio for Bulgaria is estimated to be 45.2631%, suggesting that an increase in the debt ratio beyond 45.2631% will cause the growth rate of real GDP to decline. This turning point for Bulgaria is far less than the 90% turning point proposed by Reinhart and Rogoff. Therefore, the Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis does not apply to Bulgaria.

Applying an extended IS-LM model to Poland, this paper finds that fiscal expansion does not raise output but causes real appreciation and that monetary expansion increases output and leads to real depreciation. Besides, a lower real interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation rate helps raise output; and a higher real interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation rate results in real appreciation. Hence, the predictions of the Mundell- Fleming model are applicable to Poland.

The paper finds that real depreciation of the denar reduces real GDP and that more government deficit spending as a percent of GDP raises real GDP. In addition, a lower world real interest rate, a higher lagged world real income, a lower real oil price or a lower expected inflation would increase real GDP. It suggests that the negative impact of real depreciation such as higher import costs and domestic inflation and less international capital inflows dominates the positive impact of real depreciation such as more exports.

This paper finds that Poland’s aggregate output is positively associated with the government debt-to-GDP ratio, the real effective exchange rate during 2002.Q4-2007.Q3, the real stock price and the real oil price and negatively impacted by the real effective exchange rate during 2007.Q4-2016.Q4, the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate. Hence, the current level of the debt-to-GDP ratio is sustainable, and real depreciation may be contractionary or expansionary depending upon the time period under consideration.

Applying the aggregate demand and aggregate supply model and based on a quarterly sample during 2003.Q1 – 2015.Q4, this paper finds that Czech’s aggregate output is positively associated with real appreciation of the koruna, the real stock price, lagged German real GDP and real wages and negatively influenced by the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the koruna would not help Czech’s aggregate output, and recent relatively low government deficit as a percent of GDP would raise aggregate output.

Applying aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and based on a quarterly sample during 2000.Q4–2015.Q4, this paper finds that Croatia’s aggregate output is positively associated with government debt as percent of GDP during 2000.Q4–2008.Q4, real appreciation of the kuna, the real stock price, German real GDP, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by government debt as percent of GDP during 2009.Q1–2015.Q4, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. The dynamic relationships between real GDP and government debt as percent of GDP suggest that fiscal discipline needs to be exercised in pursuing expansionary macroeconomic policy in the future.

Applying the EGARCH model and using demand and supply analysis, this paper finds that the HUF/USD exchange rate (units of the Hungarian forint per U.S. dollar) is positively associated with the U.S. Treasury bill rate, U.S. real GDP, the U.S. stock index, the Hungarian inflation rate and the expected exchange rate and negatively influenced by the Hungarian Treasury bill rate, Hungarian real GDP, the Hungarian stock index, and the U.S. inflation rate. The HUF/USD exchange rate has a long-term equilibrium relationship with these time series variables.

This paper applies demand and supply analysis to examine the government bond yield in Spain. The sample ranges from 1999.Q1 to 2014.Q2. The EGARCH model is employed in empirical work. The Spanish government bond yield is positively associated with the government debt/GDP ratio, the short-term Treasury bill rate, the expected inflation rate, the U.S. 10 year government bond yield and a dummy variable representing the debt crisis and negatively affected by the GDP growth rate and the expected nominal effective exchange rate.

This paper examines short-run determinants of the U.S. dollar/Polish zloty (USD/PLN) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model of demand and supply. Using a reduced form equation and the EGARCH model, the paper finds that the USD/PLN exchange rate is positively associated with the real reference rate in Poland, real GDP in the U.S., the real stock index in Poland and the expected exchange rate and is negatively influenced by the U.S. real federal funds rate, real GDP in Poland, and the real stock index in the U.S. Hence, monetary policy is effective in influencing the USD/PLN exchange rate.

This study examines the bank lending channel for Hungary based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of the demand for and supply of bank loans. The three-stage least squares method is applied. This paper finds evidence of a bank lending channel for Hungary. Expansionary monetary policy via a lower interbank rate or open market purchase of government bonds to increase bank reserves/deposits would increase bank loan supply.

This paper tests the bank lending channel for Poland based on a simultaneousequation model consisting of demand for and supply of bank loans. The three-stage least squares method is employed in empirical work. This paper finds support for a bank lending channel for Poland. Expansionary monetary policy through a lower money market rate or open market purchase of government bonds to increase bank reserves/deposits would increase bank loan supply.

The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index is not affected by the ratio of government deficits or debt to GDP and is negatively influenced by the money market rate. The stock index and the ratio of M3 to GDP show a quadratic relationship with a critical value of 46.03%, suggesting that they have a positive relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is less than 46.03% and a negative relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is greater than 46.03%. Furthermore, Poland’s stock index is positively associated with industrial production and stock market performance in Germany and the U.S. and negatively affected by the nominal effective exchange rate and the inflation rate.

This paper examines the determinants of the South African rand/US dollar (ZAR/USD) exchange rate based on demand and supply analysis. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the ZAR/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the South African government bond yield, US real GDP, the US stock price and the South African inflation rate and negatively influenced by the 10-year US government bond yield, South African real GDP, the South African stock price, and the US inflation rate. The adoption of a free floating exchange rate regime has reduced the value of the rand vs. the US dollar.

This paper finds support for the trilemma for Greece, suggesting that there is a tradeoff among exchange rate stability, monetary independence and financial integration. The policy combination of monetary independence and financial integration has been prevalent. More exchange rate stability does not affect the inflation rate, the growth rate, inflation volatility and output volatility. More monetary independence reduces output volatility. More financial integration reduces inflation, inflation volatility and output volatility. Hence, more financial integration or monetary independence is beneficial to Greece.

This paper finds evidence of the trilemma for Bulgaria, suggesting that exchange rate stability, monetary independence and free capital mobility are binding and constrained. The policy combination of exchange rate stability and monetary independence has been prevalent. More exchange rate stability increases the growth rate of real GDP whereas more monetary independence or free capital mobility reduces the growth rate. The inflation rate, inflation volatility and output volatility are not affected by either one of the three trilemma policies.

Applying the GARCH model, this paper finds that the Czech stock market index is positively associated with real GDP and the German and US stock market indexes, is negatively influenced by the ratio of government borrowing to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the CZK/USD exchange rate, the expected inflation rate and the euro area government bond yield, and exhibits a quadratic relationship with the ratio of M2 to GDP. It suggests that the Czech stock market index and the M2/GDP ratio have a positive (negative) relationship if the M2/GDP ratio is less (greater) than the critical value of 60.0%. Hence, to promote a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue or maintain economic growth, fiscal discipline, currency appreciation, a relatively low interest rate and expected inflation rate, and the M2/GDP ratio which is below the critical value of 60.0%.

This paper examines the relationship between Hungary’s stock market index and relevant macroeconomic variables. The GARCH model is applied in empirical work. It finds that Hungary’s stock market index has a positive relationship with real GDP, the ratio of the government debt to GDP, the nominal effective exchange rate and the German stock market index, a negative relationship with the real interest rate, the expected inflation rate and the government bond yield in the euro area, and a quadratic relationship with real M2 money supply. It indicates that there is a positive (negative) relationship if real M2 money supply is less (greater) than the critical value of 9,563 billion forints. If the quadratic relationship is not specified and tested, the positive coefficient of real M2 will be insignificant at the 10% level, and we may reach a misleading conclusion that the stock market index is not affected by real M2.

This paper examines the effects of selected macroeconomic variables on the stock market index in South Africa. The exponential GARCH (Nelson, 1991) model is applied. It finds that South Africa’s stock market index is positively influenced by the growth rate of real GDP, the ratio of the money supply to GDP and the U.S. stock market index and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the domestic real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the domestic inflation rate, and the U.S. government bond yield. Therefore, to maintain a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, fiscal prudence, a higher ratio of the money supply to GDP, a lower real interest rate, depreciation of the rand, and/or a lower inflation rate.

Background and Objectives: Osteoporosis is a common disease of the elderly, in which genetic and clinical factors contribute to the disease phenotype. Since the production of interleukin-1 (IL-1) has been implicated in the bone mass and skeletal disorders, we investigated whether IL-1 system gene polymorphisms are associated with the pathogenesis of osteoporosis in postmenopausal Taiwanese women. Methods: Osteoporosis is diagnosed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, which measures bone mineral density (BMD) at multiple skeletal sites. We studied the IL-1α (-889C/T), IL-1β (-511C/T) and the 86 base pair variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) in intron 2 of the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) gene in 117 postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and 135 control subjects without a history of symptomatic osteoporosis. These gene polymorphisms were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymerase. Blood sugar and other risk factors were also determined. Results: The frequencies of IL-1β (-511C/T) genotypes (P=.022, odds ratio=1.972) and alleles (P=.02, odds ratio=2.909) showed a statistically significant difference between the two groups. However, we did not find any statistically significant difference in IL-1β and IL-1ra polymorphisms (P>.05). We also observed a positive relationship between osteoporosis and cholesterol and a weak inverse relationship between blood sugar and osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Conclusions: These experimental results suggest that the pathogenesis of osteoporosis is associated with IL-1β (-511C/T) polymorphism in postmenopausal women. This polymorphism is an independent risk factor for osteoporosis.

Shock experiments give a unique insight into the behavior of matter subjected to extremely high pressures and temperatures. Understanding the behavior of materials under such extreme conditions is key to modeling material failure and deformation dynamics under impact. While studies on pure silica are extensive, the shock behavior of other commercial silicates that contain additional oxides has not been systematically investigated. To better understand the role of composition in the dynamic behavior of silicates, we performed laser-driven dynamic compression experiments on soda-lime glass (SLG) up to 315 GPa. Using the accurate pulse shaping offered by the long pulse laser system at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end-station at the Linac Coherent Light Source, SLG was shock compressed along the Hugoniot to multiple pressure-temperature points. Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector was used to measure the velocity and determine the pressure inside the SLG. The U s -u p relationship obtained agrees well with the previous parallel plate impact studies. Within the error bars, no transformation to the crystalline phase was observed up to 70 GPa, which is in contrast to the behavior of pure silica under shock compression. Our studies show that the glass composition strongly influences the shock compression behavior of the silicate glasses.

Extending the open-economy loanable funds model, this paper finds that more government deficit as a percentage of GDP does not lead to a higher government bond yield. In addition, a higher real Treasury bill rate, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher EU government bond yield, or an expected depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar would increase Slovenia’s long-term interest rate. The negative coefficient of the percentage change in real GDP is insignificant at the10% level. Applying the standard closed-economy or open-economy loanable funds model without including the world interest rate and the expected exchange rate, we find similar conclusions except that the positive coefficient of the ratio of the net capital inflow to GDP has a wrong sign and is insignificant at the 10% level.

Extending the Taylor rule and applying the VAR model, the author finds that the overnight call rate reacts positively to a shock to the inflation gap, the output gap, yen depreciation, stock prices, or the lagged overnight call rate. The response of the overnight call rate to exchange rates or stock prices lasts longer than the reaction to the output gap and the inflation gap. Except for the lagged overnight call rate, the inflation gap and the exchange rate are more influential than the output gap and stock prices in explaining the variance of the overnight call rate.

Extending the Taylor rule and applying the VAR model, the author finds that the overnight call rate reacts positively to a shock to the inflation gap, the output gap, yen depreciation, stock prices, or the lagged overnight call rate. The response of the overnight call rate to exchange rates or stock prices lasts longer than the reaction to the output gap and the inflation gap. Except for the lagged overnight call rate, the inflation gap and the exchange rate are more influential than the output gap and stock prices in explaining the variance of the overnight call rate. JEL Codes: E52, E58

Applying the GARCH or ARCH model, this paper finds that Poland's stock market index is positively associated with industrial production or real GDP and the German stock market index, negatively affected by the government borrowing/GDP ratio, the real interest rate, the nominal effective exchange rate, the expected inflation rate, and the government bond yield in the euro area, and exhibits a quadratic relationship with the M2/GDP ratio. It suggests that the stock market index and the M2/GDP ratio show a positive (negative) relationship if the M2/GDP ratio is less (greater) than the critical value of 43.68%. Hence, to maintain a healthy stock market, the Polish authorities are expected to pursue economic growth, reduce government borrowing, avoid currency appreciation, and keep a relatively low interest rate or a relatively low expected inflation rate. Although currency appreciation has a negative impact on the stock market index, it is possible that the negative relationship might change if a certain threshold value is reached in the future.

This article analyzes the behaviour of the USD/EUR exchange rate based on four major models. Using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as a criterion, the extended Mundell‐Fleming model performs best, followed by the PPP model using the relative PPI, the monetary model, the PPP model using the relative CPI, and the UIP model. The widely used log‐log form in the PPP model based on the relative PPI or CPI can be rejected at the 5% level. The insignificant coefficients or unexpected signs of some variables in the monetary and other models may pose some challenges in applications. First Publish Online: 09 Jun 2011

Las demandas M1, M2 y M3 en México están negativamente influidas por el producto y el precio de las acciones, y están asociadas negativamente con la tasa de ahorro, la tasa de interés estadounidense y la tasa de inflación esperada. Por su parte, la depreciación del peso afecta negativamente la demanda M1 y positivamente a las demandas M2 y M3. La forma log-lineal no puede ser rechazada para la demanda M1 y puede ser rechazada para las demandas M2 y M3, mientras que la forma lineal puede ser rechazada para las demandas M1, M2, y M3. La prueba CUSUMSQ muestra que las demandas M1, M2 y M3 son estables, mientras que la prueba CUSUM indica estabilidad en las demandas M1 y M3 e inestabilidad en la demanda M2.

Este estudio aplica el modelo VAR para hallar posibles respuestas del PIB real a variables macroeconómicas seleccionadas en Venezuela. Basado en una muestra anual de 1961-2001, el autor encuentra que el PIB real responde positivamente a choques en el M2 real, al déficit del gobierno, a la depreciación de la tasa de cambio y al producto rezagado, y negativamente a choques en la inflación durante algunos períodos de tiempo. Excepto por el producto rezagado, el déficit del gobierno y la inflación son las variables que tienen mayor influencia en el primer año. El M2 real y la tasa de cambio real son las que más influyen y tienen impactos de más largo plazo después del primer año.