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To provide global coverage for the hyperspectral infrared (IR) and microwave (MW) sounders, the low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellite constellation is in operation in three temporally well-spaced sun-synchronous orbits. However, the satellite program can be altered as a result of aging satellites needing to deorbit and/or termination of the legacy program, resulting in less spatiotemporal coverage. In this study, to stress the contribution of IR and MW sounder observations from the LEO satellite constellation on numerical weather prediction (NWP) system performance, the change of the analysis impact is assessed under two assumptions: 1) the loss of the IR and MW sounder observations in each of three sun-synchronous orbits and 2) the loss of the secondary LEO satellite in two orbits, using a 2017 version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS). In the analysis verification, it is found that the analysis field is degraded due to the loss of the IR and MW sounders in each of the three primary orbits. In particular, the satellites in the afternoon orbit significantly contribute to improving the analysis as compared with the satellites in the other two orbits. In addition, the loss of the secondary satellite results in significant degradation of the analysis, resulting from reduced spatial coverage by the IR and MW sounders. These results suggest that the LEO satellite constellation, consisting of the LEO satellites in three primary sun-synchronous orbits, should be maintained in terms of the contribution to the NWP. Significance Statement Hyperspectral infrared (IR) and microwave (MW) sounders from low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites significantly contribute to improving numerical weather forecasting. Nevertheless, the resiliency of the LEO satellite programs, operating in three sun-synchronous orbits, can be compromised by aging satellites needing to deorbit and/or termination of legacy satellite systems. Thus, to highlight the importance of the IR and MW sounder observations from LEO satellites in terms of numerical weather forecasting, we assessed the analysis impact of these observations with diverse satellite data availability scenarios. In the trial experiments, it is demonstrated that analysis performance is significantly degraded if the IR and MW sounders are lost, suggesting that the satellite programs carrying the IR and MW sounders should be maintained seamlessly in the future.

Data assimilation of satellite microwave measurements is one of the importantkeys to improving weather forecasting over the Arctic region. However, the useofsurface-sensitivemicrowave-soundingchannelmeasurementsfordataassim-ilation or retrieval has been limited, especially during winter, due to the poorlyconstrained sea ice emissivity. In this study, aiming at more use of those channelmeasurements in the data assimilation, we propose an explicit method for speci-fying the surface radiative boundary conditions (namely emissivity and emittinglayer temperature of snow and ice). These were explicitly determined with aradiativetransfermodelforsnowandiceandwithsnow/icephysicalparameters(i.e. snow/ice depths and vertical distributions of temperature, density, salinity,and grain size) simulated from the thermodynamically driven snow/ice growthmodel. We conducted 1D-Var experiments in order to examine whether thisapproach can help to use the surface-sensitive microwave temperature channelmeasurements over the Arctic sea ice region for data assimilation. Results showthat (1) the surface-sensitive microwave channels can be used in the 1D-Varretrieval, and (2) the specification of the radiative boundary condition at thesurface using the snow/sea ice emission model can significantly improve theatmospheric temperature retrieval, especially in the lower troposphere (500hPato surface). The successful retrieval suggests that useful information can beextracted from surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel radiances oversea ice surfaces through the explicit determination of snow/ice emissivity andemitting layer temperature.

To improve the initial condition (“analysis”) for numerical weather prediction, we attempt to assimilate observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on board the low-earth-orbiting satellites. The data assimilation system, used in this study, consists of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and the Community Earth System Model as the global forecast model. Based on the ensemble Kalman filter scheme, DART supports the radiative transfer model that is used to simulate the satellite radiances from the model state. To make the AMSU-A data available to be assimilated in DART, preprocessing modules are developed, which consist of quality control and bias correction processes. In the quality control, three sub-processes are included: gross quality control, channel selection, and spatial thinning. The bias correction process is divided into scan-bias correction and air-mass-bias correction. As input data used in DART, the observation errors are also estimated for the AMSU-A channels. In the trial experiments, a positive analysis impact is obtained by assimilating the AMSU-A observations on top of the DART data assimilation system that already makes use of the conventional measurements. In particular, the analysis errors are significantly reduced in the whole troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. Overall, this study demonstrates a positive impact on the analysis when the AMSU-A observations are assimilated in the DART assimilation system.

The Unified Model (UM) data assimilation system incorporates a 1D-Var analysis of cloud variables for assimilating hyperspectral infrared radiances. For the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) radiance assimilation, a first guess of cloud top pressure (CTP) and cloud fraction (CF) is estimated using the minimum residual (MR) method, which simultaneously obtains CTP and CF by minimizing radiance difference between observation and model simulation. In this study, we examined how those MR-based cloud retrievals behave, using “optimum” CTP and CF that yield the best 1D-Var analysis results. It is noted that the MR method tends to overestimate cloud top height while underestimating cloud fraction, compared to the optimum results, necessitating an improved cloud retrieval. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was taken to estimate CTP as close as possible to the optimum value, based on the hypothesis that CTP and CF closer to the optimum values will bring in better 1D-Var results. The ANN-based cloud retrievals indicated that CTP and CF biases shown in the MR method are much reduced, giving better 1D-Var analysis results. Furthermore, the computational time can be substantially reduced by the ANN method, compared to the MR method. The evaluation of the ANN method in a global weather forecasting system demonstrated that it helps to use more temperature channels in the assimilation, although its impact on UM forecasts was found to be near neutral. It is suggested that the neutral impact may be improved when error covariances for the cloudy sky are employed in the UM assimilation system.

This study attempts to assess the impact of data assimilation with newly selected Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) channels on the global precipitation forecast, using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Unified Model (UM) system. The new IASI channels assimilated under the clear-sky condition give a positive impact on the global precipitation forecast, shown in the trial experiments. In particular, the overestimated horizontal size of forecasted precipitation in the control run with operational IASI channels significantly decreases in the experimental trial with the newly selected channels. In addition, the moist biases of moisture field in the model analysis as an initial condition are substantially reduced in the experiment run. Considering that the moisture in the troposphere is a main source of precipitation, the reduction of moist biases in the troposphere seems to contribute to the improvement of precipitation forecast in the UM system. Therefore, these results suggest that the improved moisture field even over clear areas is able to enhance the precipitation forecast accuracy. And because the difference between two trial runs is only a set of IASI channels used in the UM data assimilation system, the improved precipitation forecast is likely to due to the use of different H2O channels in the new set of IASI channel used in the experiment run, which are sensitive to the tropospheric water vapor.

To maximize the contribution of the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) measurements to the global weather forecasting, we attempt to choose the CrIS channels to be assimilated in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). From pre-selected 431 CrIS channels, 207 channels are newly selected using a one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) approach where the channel score index (CSI) is used as a figure of merit. Newly selected 207 channels consist of 85 temperature, 49 water vapor, and 73 surface channels, respectively. In addition, to examine how the channels are selected if the forecast error covariance is differently defined depending on the latitudinal regions (i.e., Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and tropics), the same selection process is carried out repeatedly using three regional forecast error covariances. From three regional channel sets, two-channel sets are made for the global data assimilation. One channel set is made with 134 channels overlapped between three regional channel sets. Another channel set consists of 277 channels that is the sum of three regional channel sets. In the global trial experiments, the global CrIS 207 channels have a significant positive forecast impact in terms of the improvement of GFS global forecasting, as compared with the forecasts with the operational 100 channels as well as the overlapped 134 and the union 277 channel sets. The improved forecast is mainly due to the additional temperature/water vapor channels of the global CrIS 207 channels that are selected optimally based on the global forecast error of operational GFS.

A new set of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) channels was re-selected from 314 EUMETSAT channels. In selecting channels, we calculated the impact of the individually added channel on the improvement in the analysis outputs from a one-dimensional variational analysis (1D-Var) for the Unified Model (UM) data assimilation system at the Met Office, using the channel score index (CSI) as a figure of merit. Then, 200 channels were selected in order by counting each individual channel’s CSI contribution. Compared with the operationally used 183 channels for the UM at the Met Office, the new set shares 149 channels, while the other 51 channels are new. Also examined is the selection from the entropy reduction method with the same 1D-Var approach. Results suggest that channel selection can be made in a more objective fashion using the proposed CSI method. This is because the most important channels can be selected across the whole IASI observation spectrum. In the experimental trial runs using the UM global assimilation system, the new channels had an overall neutral impact in terms of improvement in forecasts, as compared with results from the operational channels. However, upper-tropospheric moist biases shown in the control run with operational channels were significantly reduced in the experimental trial with the newly selected channels. The reduction of moist biases was mainly due to the additional water vapor channels, which are sensitive to the upper-tropospheric water vapor.

This paper attempts to explain the cause of weakening or disappearing brightness temperature difference (BTD) signatures, in particular, over the Yellow Sea during the March 15–16, 2009 dust event. Using a simple correction approach that removes the effects of emissivity difference and water vapor effect difference, we confirmed that the weakening or disappearing BTD signatures noted over the Yellow Sea are largely due to the spectral emissivity contrast between land and ocean. The weakening or disappearing dust is hypothesized to be pronounced when the dust loading is weak because of the surface contribution to the top of atmosphere radiance, and that it is mainly due to the difference in spectral emissivity over the window band between land and ocean. It is further suggested that water vapor may be considered as a correction factor in spite of its smaller contribution.