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1. Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries

Author

Flavio Azevedo, Tomislav Pavlović, Gabriel G. Rêgo, F. Ceren Ay, Biljana Gjoneska, Tom W. Etienne, Robert M. Ross, Philipp Schönegger, Julián C. Riaño-Moreno, Aleksandra Cichocka, Valerio Capraro, Luca Cian, Chiara Longoni, Ho Fai Chan, Jay J. Van Bavel, Hallgeir Sjåstad, John B. Nezlek, Mark Alfano, Michele J. Gelfand, Michèle D. Birtel, Aleksandra Cislak, Patricia L. Lockwood, Koen Abts, Elena Agadullina, John Jamir Benzon Aruta, Sahba Nomvula Besharati, Alexander Bor, Becky L. Choma, Charles David Crabtree, William A. Cunningham, Koustav De, Waqas Ejaz, Christian T. Elbaek, Andrej Findor, Daniel Flichtentrei, Renata Franc, June Gruber, Estrella Gualda, Yusaku Horiuchi, Toan Luu Duc Huynh, Agustin Ibanez, Mostak Ahamed Imran, Jacob Israelashvili, Katarzyna Jasko, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel, Michael Laakasuo, Claus Lamm, Caroline Leygue, Ming-Jen Lin, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor, Antoine Marie, Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh, John Paul Minda, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Andreas Olsson, Tobias Otterbring, Dominic J. Packer, Anat Perry, Michael Bang Petersen, Arathy Puthillam, Tobias Rothmund, Hernando Santamaría-García, Petra C. Schmid, Drozdstoy Stoyanov, Shruti Tewari, Bojan Todosijević, Manos Tsakiris, Hans H. Tung, Radu G. Umbres, Edmunds Vanags, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andrew Vonasch, Meltem Yucel, Yucheng Zhang, Mohcine Abad, Eli Adler, Narin Akrawi, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri, Hanane Amara, David M. Amodio, Benedict G. Antazo, Matthew Apps, Mouhamadou Hady Ba, Sergio Barbosa, Brock Bastian, Anton Berg, Maria P. Bernal-Zárate, Michael Bernstein, Michał Białek, Ennio Bilancini, Natalia Bogatyreva, Leonardo Boncinelli, Jonathan E. Booth, Sylvie Borau, Ondrej Buchel, C. Daryl Cameron, Chrissie F. Carvalho, Tatiana Celadin, Chiara Cerami, Hom Nath Chalise, Xiaojun Cheng, Kate Cockcroft, Jane Conway, Mateo Andres Córdoba-Delgado, Chiara Crespi, Marie Crouzevialle, Jo Cutler, Marzena Cypryańska, Justyna Dabrowska, Michael A. Daniels, Victoria H. Davis, Pamala N. Dayley, Sylvain Delouvée, Ognjan Denkovski, Guillaume Dezecache, Nathan A. Dhaliwal, Alelie B. Diato, Roberto Di Paolo, Marianna Drosinou, Uwe Dulleck, Jānis Ekmanis, Arhan S. Ertan, Hapsa Hossain Farhana, Fahima Farkhari, Harry Farmer, Ali Fenwick, Kristijan Fidanovski, Terry Flew, Shona Fraser, Raymond Boadi Frempong, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Jessica Gale, E. Begoña Garcia-Navarro, Prasad Garladinne, Oussama Ghajjou, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Kurt Gray, Siobhán M. Griffin, Bjarki Gronfeldt, Mert Gümren, Ranju Lama Gurung, Eran Halperin, Elizabeth Harris, Volo Herzon, Matej Hruška, Guanxiong Huang, Matthias F. C. Hudecek, Ozan Isler, Simon Jangard, Frederik J. Jorgensen, Frank Kachanoff, John Kahn, Apsara Katuwal Dangol, Oleksandra Keudel, Lina Koppel, Mika Koverola, Emily Kubin, Anton Kunnari, Yordan Kutiyski, Oscar Moreda Laguna, Josh Leota, Eva Lermer, Jonathan Levy, Neil Levy, Chunyun Li, Elizabeth U. Long, Marina Maglić, Darragh McCashin, Alexander L. Metcalf, Igor Mikloušić, Soulaimane El Mimouni, Asako Miura, Juliana Molina-Paredes, César Monroy-Fonseca, Elena Morales-Marente, David Moreau, Rafał Muda, Annalisa Myer, Kyle Nash, Tarik Nesh-Nash, Jonas P. Nitschke, Matthew S. Nurse, Yohsuke Ohtsubo, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello, Cathal O’Madagain, Michal Onderco, M. Soledad Palacios-Galvez, Jussi Palomöki, Yafeng Pan, Zsófia Papp, Philip Pärnamets, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Zoran Pavlović, César Payán-Gómez, Silva Perander, Michael Mark Pitman, Rajib Prasad, Joanna Pyrkosz-Pacyna, Steve Rathje, Ali Raza, Kasey Rhee, Claire E. Robertson, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual, Teemu Saikkonen, Octavio Salvador-Ginez, Gaia C. Santi, Natalia Santiago-Tovar, David Savage, Julian A. Scheffer, David T. Schultner, Enid M. Schutte, Andy Scott, Madhavi Sharma, Pujan Sharma, Ahmed Skali, David Stadelmann, Clara Alexandra Stafford, Dragan Stanojević, Anna Stefaniak, Anni Sternisko, Augustin Stoica, Kristina K. Stoyanova, Brent Strickland, Jukka Sundvall, Jeffrey P. Thomas, Gustav Tinghög, Benno Torgler, Iris J. Traast, Raffaele Tucciarelli, Michael Tyrala, Nick D. Ungson, Mete S. Uysal, Paul A. M. Van Lange, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Dirk van Rooy, Daniel Västfjäll, Peter Verkoeijen, Joana B. Vieira, Christian von Sikorski, Alexander Cameron Walker, Jennifer Watermeyer, Erik Wetter, Ashley Whillans, Katherine White, Rishad Habib, Robin Willardt, Michael J. A. Wohl, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Kaidi Wu, Yuki Yamada, Onurcan Yilmaz, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer, Rolf A. Zwaan, Paulo S. Boggio, and Waldir M. Sampaio

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.

Published
2023
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2. National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic

Author

Jay J. Van Bavel, Aleksandra Cichocka, Valerio Capraro, Hallgeir Sjåstad, John B. Nezlek, Tomislav Pavlović, Mark Alfano, Michele J. Gelfand, Flavio Azevedo, Michèle D. Birtel, Aleksandra Cislak, Patricia L. Lockwood, Robert Malcolm Ross, Koen Abts, Elena Agadullina, John Jamir Benzon Aruta, Sahba Nomvula Besharati, Alexander Bor, Becky L. Choma, Charles David Crabtree, William A. Cunningham, Koustav De, Waqas Ejaz, Christian T. Elbaek, Andrej Findor, Daniel Flichtentrei, Renata Franc, Biljana Gjoneska, June Gruber, Estrella Gualda, Yusaku Horiuchi, Toan Luu Duc Huynh, Augustin Ibanez, Mostak Ahamed Imran, Jacob Israelashvili, Katarzyna Jasko, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel, Michael Laakasuo, Claus Lamm, Caroline Leygue, Ming-Jen Lin, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor, Antoine Marie, Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh, John Paul Minda, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Andreas Olsson, Tobias Otterbring, Dominic J. Packer, Anat Perry, Michael Bang Petersen, Arathy Puthillam, Julián C. Riaño-Moreno, Tobias Rothmund, Hernando Santamaría-García, Petra C. Schmid, Drozdstoy Stoyanov, Shruti Tewari, Bojan Todosijević, Manos Tsakiris, Hans H. Tung, Radu G. Umbreș, Edmunds Vanags, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andrew Vonasch, Meltem Yucel, Yucheng Zhang, Mohcine Abad, Eli Adler, Narin Akrawi, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri, Hanane Amara, David M. Amodio, Benedict G. Antazo, Matthew Apps, F. Ceren Ay, Mouhamadou Hady Ba, Sergio Barbosa, Brock Bastian, Anton Berg, Maria P. Bernal-Zárate, Michael Bernstein, Michał Białek, Ennio Bilancini, Natalia Bogatyreva, Leonardo Boncinelli, Jonathan E. Booth, Sylvie Borau, Ondrej Buchel, C. Daryl Cameron, Chrissie F. Carvalho, Tatiana Celadin, Chiara Cerami, Hom Nath Chalise, Xiaojun Cheng, Luca Cian, Kate Cockcroft, Jane Conway, Mateo Andres Córdoba-Delgado, Chiara Crespi, Marie Crouzevialle, Jo Cutler, Marzena Cypryańska, Justyna Dabrowska, Michael A. Daniels, Victoria H. Davis, Pamala N. Dayley, Sylvain Delouvee, Ognjan Denkovski, Guillaume Dezecache, Nathan A. Dhaliwal, Alelie B. Diato, Roberto Di Paolo, Marianna Drosinou, Uwe Dulleck, Jānis Ekmanis, Arhan S. Ertan, Tom W. Etienne, Hapsa Hossain Farhana, Fahima Farkhari, Harry Farmer, Ali Fenwick, Kristijan Fidanovski, Terry Flew, Shona Fraser, Raymond Boadi Frempong, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Jessica Gale, E. Begoña Garcia-Navarro, Prasad Garladinne, Oussama Ghajjou, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Kurt Gray, Siobhán M. Griffin, Bjarki Gronfeldt, Mert Gümren, Ranju Lama Gurung, Eran Halperin, Elizabeth Harris, Volo Herzon, Matej Hruška, Guanxiong Huang, Matthias F. C. Hudecek, Ozan Isler, Simon Jangard, Frederik J. Jørgensen, Frank Kachanoff, John Kahn, Apsara Katuwal Dangol, Oleksandra Keudel, Lina Koppel, Mika Koverola, Emily Kubin, Anton Kunnari, Yordan Kutiyski, Oscar Laguna, Josh Leota, Eva Lermer, Jonathan Levy, Neil Levy, Chunyun Li, Elizabeth U. Long, Chiara Longoni, Marina Maglić, Darragh McCashin, Alexander L. Metcalf, Igor Mikloušić, Soulaimane El Mimouni, Asako Miura, Juliana Molina-Paredes, César Monroy-Fonseca, Elena Morales-Marente, David Moreau, Rafał Muda, Annalisa Myer, Kyle Nash, Tarik Nesh-Nash, Jonas P. Nitschke, Matthew S. Nurse, Yohsuke Ohtsubo, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello, Cathal O’Madagain, Michal Onderco, M. Soledad Palacios-Galvez, Jussi Palomäki, Yafeng Pan, Zsófia Papp, Philip Pärnamets, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Zoran Pavlović, César Payán-Gómez, Silva Perander, Michael Mark Pitman, Rajib Prasad, Joanna Pyrkosz-Pacyna, Steve Rathje, Ali Raza, Gabriel G. Rêgo, Kasey Rhee, Claire E. Robertson, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual, Teemu Saikkonen, Octavio Salvador-Ginez, Waldir M. Sampaio, Gaia C. Santi, Natalia Santiago-Tovar, David Savage, Julian A. Scheffer, Philipp Schönegger, David T. Schultner, Enid M. Schutte, Andy Scott, Madhavi Sharma, Pujan Sharma, Ahmed Skali, David Stadelmann, Clara Alexandra Stafford, Dragan Stanojević, Anna Stefaniak, Anni Sternisko, Augustin Stoica, Kristina K. Stoyanova, Brent Strickland, Jukka Sundvall, Jeffrey P. Thomas, Gustav Tinghög, Benno Torgler, Iris J. Traast, Raffaele Tucciarelli, Michael Tyrala, Nick D. Ungson, Mete S. Uysal, Paul A. M. Van Lange, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Dirk van Rooy, Daniel Västfjäll, Peter Verkoeijen, Joana B. Vieira, Christian von Sikorski, Alexander Cameron Walker, Jennifer Watermeyer, Erik Wetter, Ashley Whillans, Robin Willardt, Michael J. A. Wohl, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Kaidi Wu, Yuki Yamada, Onurcan Yilmaz, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer, Rolf A. Zwaan, and Paulo S. Boggio

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic.

Published
2022
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3. Author Correction: National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic

Author

Jay J. Van Bavel, Aleksandra Cichocka, Valerio Capraro, Hallgeir Sjåstad, John B. Nezlek, Tomislav Pavlović, Mark Alfano, Michele J. Gelfand, Flavio Azevedo, Michèle D. Birtel, Aleksandra Cislak, Patricia L. Lockwood, Robert Malcolm Ross, Koen Abts, Elena Agadullina, John Jamir Benzon Aruta, Sahba Nomvula Besharati, Alexander Bor, Becky L. Choma, Charles David Crabtree, William A. Cunningham, Koustav De, Waqas Ejaz, Christian T. Elbaek, Andrej Findor, Daniel Flichtentrei, Renata Franc, Biljana Gjoneska, June Gruber, Estrella Gualda, Yusaku Horiuchi, Toan Luu Duc Huynh, Agustin Ibanez, Mostak Ahamed Imran, Jacob Israelashvili, Katarzyna Jasko, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel, Michael Laakasuo, Claus Lamm, Caroline Leygue, Ming-Jen Lin, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor, Antoine Marie, Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh, John Paul Minda, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Andreas Olsson, Tobias Otterbring, Dominic J. Packer, Anat Perry, Michael Bang Petersen, Arathy Puthillam, Julián C. Riaño-Moreno, Tobias Rothmund, Hernando Santamaría-García, Petra C. Schmid, Drozdstoy Stoyanov, Shruti Tewari, Bojan Todosijević, Manos Tsakiris, Hans H. Tung, Radu G. Umbreș, Edmunds Vanags, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andrew Vonasch, Meltem Yucel, Yucheng Zhang, Mohcine Abad, Eli Adler, Narin Akrawi, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri, Hanane Amara, David M. Amodio, Benedict G. Antazo, Matthew Apps, F. Ceren Ay, Mouhamadou Hady Ba, Sergio Barbosa, Brock Bastian, Anton Berg, Maria P. Bernal-Zárate, Michael Bernstein, Michał Białek, Ennio Bilancini, Natalia Bogatyreva, Leonardo Boncinelli, Jonathan E. Booth, Sylvie Borau, Ondrej Buchel, C. Daryl Cameron, Chrissie F. Carvalho, Tatiana Celadin, Chiara Cerami, Hom Nath Chalise, Xiaojun Cheng, Luca Cian, Kate Cockcroft, Jane Conway, Mateo Andres Córdoba-Delgado, Chiara Crespi, Marie Crouzevialle, Jo Cutler, Marzena Cypryańska, Justyna Dabrowska, Michael A. Daniels, Victoria H. Davis, Pamala N. Dayley, Sylvain Delouvee, Ognjan Denkovski, Guillaume Dezecache, Nathan A. Dhaliwal, Alelie B. Diato, Roberto Di Paolo, Marianna Drosinou, Uwe Dulleck, Jānis Ekmanis, Arhan S. Ertan, Tom W. Etienne, Hapsa Hossain Farhana, Fahima Farkhari, Harry Farmer, Ali Fenwick, Kristijan Fidanovski, Terry Flew, Shona Fraser, Raymond Boadi Frempong, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Jessica Gale, E. Begoña Garcia-Navarro, Prasad Garladinne, Oussama Ghajjou, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Kurt Gray, Siobhán M. Griffin, Bjarki Gronfeldt, Mert Gümren, Ranju Lama Gurung, Eran Halperin, Elizabeth Harris, Volo Herzon, Matej Hruška, Guanxiong Huang, Matthias F. C. Hudecek, Ozan Isler, Simon Jangard, Frederik J. Jørgensen, Frank Kachanoff, John Kahn, Apsara Katuwal Dangol, Oleksandra Keudel, Lina Koppel, Mika Koverola, Emily Kubin, Anton Kunnari, Yordan Kutiyski, Oscar Laguna, Josh Leota, Eva Lermer, Jonathan Levy, Neil Levy, Chunyun Li, Elizabeth U. Long, Chiara Longoni, Marina Maglić, Darragh McCashin, Alexander L. Metcalf, Igor Mikloušić, Soulaimane El Mimouni, Asako Miura, Juliana Molina-Paredes, César Monroy-Fonseca, Elena Morales-Marente, David Moreau, Rafał Muda, Annalisa Myer, Kyle Nash, Tarik Nesh-Nash, Jonas P. Nitschke, Matthew S. Nurse, Yohsuke Ohtsubo, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello, Cathal O’Madagain, Michal Onderco, M. Soledad Palacios-Galvez, Jussi Palomäki, Yafeng Pan, Zsófia Papp, Philip Pärnamets, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Zoran Pavlović, César Payán-Gómez, Silva Perander, Michael Mark Pitman, Rajib Prasad, Joanna Pyrkosz-Pacyna, Steve Rathje, Ali Raza, Gabriel G. Rêgo, Kasey Rhee, Claire E. Robertson, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual, Teemu Saikkonen, Octavio Salvador-Ginez, Waldir M. Sampaio, Gaia C. Santi, Natalia Santiago-Tovar, David Savage, Julian A. Scheffer, Philipp Schönegger, David T. Schultner, Enid M. Schutte, Andy Scott, Madhavi Sharma, Pujan Sharma, Ahmed Skali, David Stadelmann, Clara Alexandra Stafford, Dragan Stanojević, Anna Stefaniak, Anni Sternisko, Augustin Stoica, Kristina K. Stoyanova, Brent Strickland, Jukka Sundvall, Jeffrey P. Thomas, Gustav Tinghög, Benno Torgler, Iris J. Traast, Raffaele Tucciarelli, Michael Tyrala, Nick D. Ungson, Mete S. Uysal, Paul A. M. Van Lange, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Dirk van Rooy, Daniel Västfjäll, Peter Verkoeijen, Joana B. Vieira, Christian von Sikorski, Alexander Cameron Walker, Jennifer Watermeyer, Erik Wetter, Ashley Whillans, Robin Willardt, Michael J. A. Wohl, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Kaidi Wu, Yuki Yamada, Onurcan Yilmaz, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer, Rolf A. Zwaan, and Paulo S. Boggio

Subjects
Science
Published
2022
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4. Does Extreme Political Ideology Predict Conspiracy Beliefs, Economic Evaluations and Political Trust? Evidence From Sweden

Author

Andre Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Johan Martinsson, and Elias Markstedt

Subjects
political ideology, economic evaluations, trust, conspiracy belief, extremism, Psychology, BF1-990
Abstract

A large volume of academic research has demonstrated that individuals who profess radical political ideology, both left- and right-wing, tend to share similar underlying psychological patterns. By utilizing data collected through a voting advice application in Sweden, this study aims to assess whether extreme leftists and rightists share similarities in the psychological and political understanding of how society functions. We propose three hypotheses to test this pattern: Extreme left and right individuals are more inclined to believe in conspiracy theories than moderates; they are more likely to have negative economic evaluations; and they are less politically and interpersonally trustful. By means of hierarchical regression analyses, we reveal a quadratic relationship between extreme political ideology and conspiracy beliefs. Moreover, we find a similar linkage between ideology and economic evaluations. However, the empirical analyses fail to provide evidence that extreme ideology is related to lower political and interpersonal trust.

Published
2017
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5. Conspiracy beliefs prospectively predict health behavior and well-being during a pandemic

Author

Tom Etienne, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Yordan Kutiyski, André Krouwel, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), Social Psychology, IBBA, A-LAB, Criminal Law and Criminology, and RS: FdR Institute MICS

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, medicine.medical_specialty, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), health, compliance, PSYCHOLOGY, Psychiatry and Mental health, conspiracy theories, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, well-being, Well-being, Pandemic, medicine, Original Article, Health behavior, Psychology, Psychiatry, Covid-19, Applied Psychology, SYSTEM
Abstract

BackgroundConspiracy beliefs are associated with detrimental health attitudes during the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. Most prior research on these issues was cross-sectional, however, and restricted to attitudes or behavioral intentions. The current research was designed to examine to what extent conspiracy beliefs predict health behavior and well-being over a longer period of time.MethodsIn this preregistered multi-wave study on a large Dutch research panel (weighted to provide nationally representative population estimates), we examined if conspiracy beliefs early in the pandemic (April 2020) would predict a range of concrete health and well-being outcomes eight months later (December 2020; N = 5745).ResultsThe results revealed that Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs prospectively predicted a decreased likelihood of getting tested for corona; if tested, an increased likelihood of the test coming out positive; and, an increased likelihood of having violated corona regulations, deteriorated economic outcomes (job loss; reduced income), experiences of social rejection, and decreased overall well-being. Most of these effects generalized to a broader susceptibility to conspiracy theories (i.e. conspiracy mentality).ConclusionsThese findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs are associated with a myriad of negative life outcomes in the long run. Conspiracy beliefs predict how well people have coped with the pandemic over a period of eight months, as reflected in their health behavior, and their economic and social well-being.

Published
2023
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6. EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent

Author

Koen Abts, Tom Etienne, Yordan Kutiyski, and André Krouwel

Subjects
Health (social science), Political Science and International Relations, Demography
Abstract

This article utilises large-N panel data to compare two theories of referendum voting behaviour in order to understand the ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote in the 2016 Dutch referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. It studies the extent to which voting behaviour was predicted by Eurosceptic attitudes and fear of upsetting Russia (issue-based theory), versus dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and general political discontent (second-order theory). Our findings indicate that issue-based determinants predict the referendum vote better than second-order predictors. However, Eurosceptic attitudes and government satisfaction both outperform concerns about the relationship with Russia as a predictor. We thus provide evidence that the issue-based and second-order approaches to explain voting in EU referendums are complementary, but not equal in explanatory strength.

Published
2023

7. Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

Author

Tomislav Pavlović, Flavio Azevedo, Koustav De, Julián C Riaño-Moreno, Marina Maglić, Theofilos Gkinopoulos, Patricio Andreas Donnelly-Kehoe, César Payán-Gómez, Guanxiong Huang, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz, Michèle D Birtel, Philipp Schönegger, Valerio Capraro, Hernando Santamaría-García, Meltem Yucel, Agustin Ibanez, Steve Rathje, Erik Wetter, Dragan Stanojević, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Eugenia Hesse, Christian T Elbaek, Renata Franc, Zoran Pavlović, Panagiotis Mitkidis, Aleksandra Cichocka, Michele Gelfand, Mark Alfano, Robert M Ross, Hallgeir Sjåstad, John B Nezlek, Aleksandra Cislak, Patricia Lockwood, Koen Abts, Elena Agadullina, David M Amodio, Matthew A J Apps, John Jamir Benzon Aruta, Sahba Besharati, Alexander Bor, Becky Choma, William Cunningham, Waqas Ejaz, Harry Farmer, Andrej Findor, Biljana Gjoneska, Estrella Gualda, Toan L D Huynh, Mostak Ahamed Imran, Jacob Israelashvili, Elena Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Michael Laakasuo, Claus Lamm, Jonathan Levy, Caroline Leygue, Ming-Jen Lin, Mohammad Sabbir Mansoor, Antoine Marie, Lewend Mayiwar, Honorata Mazepus, Cillian McHugh, Andreas Olsson, Tobias Otterbring, Dominic Packer, Jussi Palomäki, Anat Perry, Michael Bang Petersen, Arathy Puthillam, Tobias Rothmund, Petra C Schmid, David Stadelmann, Augustin Stoica, Drozdstoy Stoyanov, Kristina Stoyanova, Shruti Tewari, Bojan Todosijević, Benno Torgler, Manos Tsakiris, Hans H Tung, Radu Gabriel Umbreș, Edmunds Vanags, Madalina Vlasceanu, Andrew J Vonasch, Yucheng Zhang, Mohcine Abad, Eli Adler, Hamza Alaoui Mdarhri, Benedict Antazo, F Ceren Ay, Mouhamadou El Hady Ba, Sergio Barbosa, Brock Bastian, Anton Berg, Michał Białek, Ennio Bilancini, Natalia Bogatyreva, Leonardo Boncinelli, Jonathan E Booth, Sylvie Borau, Ondrej Buchel, Chrissie Ferreira de Carvalho, Tatiana Celadin, Chiara Cerami, Hom Nath Chalise, Xiaojun Cheng, Luca Cian, Kate Cockcroft, Jane Conway, Mateo A Córdoba-Delgado, Chiara Crespi, Marie Crouzevialle, Jo Cutler, Marzena Cypryańska, Justyna Dabrowska, Victoria H Davis, John Paul Minda, Pamala N Dayley, Sylvain Delouvée, Ognjan Denkovski, Guillaume Dezecache, Nathan A Dhaliwal, Alelie Diato, Roberto Di Paolo, Uwe Dulleck, Jānis Ekmanis, Tom W Etienne, Hapsa Hossain Farhana, Fahima Farkhari, Kristijan Fidanovski, Terry Flew, Shona Fraser, Raymond Boadi Frempong, Jonathan Fugelsang, Jessica Gale, E Begoña García-Navarro, Prasad Garladinne, Kurt Gray, Siobhán M Griffin, Bjarki Gronfeldt, June Gruber, Eran Halperin, Volo Herzon, Matej Hruška, Matthias F C Hudecek, Ozan Isler, Simon Jangard, Frederik Jørgensen, Oleksandra Keudel, Lina Koppel, Mika Koverola, Anton Kunnari, Josh Leota, Eva Lermer, Chunyun Li, Chiara Longoni, Darragh McCashin, Igor Mikloušić, Juliana Molina-Paredes, César Monroy-Fonseca, Elena Morales-Marente, David Moreau, Rafał Muda, Annalisa Myer, Kyle Nash, Jonas P Nitschke, Matthew S Nurse, Victoria Oldemburgo de Mello, M Soledad Palacios-Galvez, Yafeng Pan, Zsófia Papp, Philip Pärnamets, Mariola Paruzel-Czachura, Silva Perander, Michael Pitman, Ali Raza, Gabriel Gaudencio Rêgo, Claire Robertson, Iván Rodríguez-Pascual, Teemu Saikkonen, Octavio Salvador-Ginez, Waldir M Sampaio, Gaia Chiara Santi, David Schultner, Enid Schutte, Andy Scott, Ahmed Skali, Anna Stefaniak, Anni Sternisko, Brent Strickland, Jeffrey P Thomas, Gustav Tinghög, Iris J Traast, Raffaele Tucciarelli, Michael Tyrala, Nick D Ungson, Mete Sefa Uysal, Dirk Van Rooy, Daniel Västfjäll, Joana B Vieira, Christian von Sikorski, Alexander C Walker, Jennifer Watermeyer, Robin Willardt, Michael J A Wohl, Adrian Dominik Wójcik, Kaidi Wu, Yuki Yamada, Onurcan Yilmaz, Kumar Yogeeswaran, Carolin-Theresa Ziemer, Rolf A Zwaan, Paulo Sergio Boggio, Ashley Whillans, Paul A M Van Lange, Rajib Prasad, Michal Onderco, Cathal O'Madagain, Tarik Nesh-Nash, Oscar Moreda Laguna, Emily Kubin, Mert Gümren, Ali Fenwick, Arhan S Ertan, Michael J Bernstein, Hanane Amara, Jay Joseph Van Bavel, Brain and Cognition, Public Administration, Pavlovic, Tomislav, Avezedo, Flávio, De, Koustav, Maglić, Marina, Donnelly-Kehoe, Patricio Andreas, Payán-Gómez, César, Van Bavel, Jay J., Schmid, Petra Claudia, Crouzevialle, Marie, Willardt, Robin, et al., Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), University of Kentucky (UK), Universidad El Bosque [Bogota], University of Crete [Heraklion] (UOC), Universidad del Rosario [Bogota], Universidad Nacional de Colombia [Bogotà] (UNAL), City University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong] (CUHK), Universiteit Leiden, University of Greenwich, University of St Andrews [Scotland], Middlesex University [London], Pontifical Xavierian University, Duke University [Durham], Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez [Santiago], University of California (UC), Trinity College Dublin, Stockholm School of Economics (SSE), University of Belgrade [Belgrade], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), Aarhus University [Aarhus], University of Kent [Canterbury], Stanford University, Macquarie University, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities (SWPS), University of Birmingham [Birmingham], University of Oxford, Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven), Vysšaja škola èkonomiki = National Research University Higher School of Economics [Moscow] (HSE), University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (UvA), Sunway University [Malaysia], University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg] (WITS), University of Toronto, National University of Sciences and Technology [Islamabad] (NUST), Comenius University in Bratislava, Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts [Skopje, North Macedonia] (MASA), Universidad de Huelva, University of Southampton, BRAC University, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ), Erasmus University Rotterdam, Kieskompas, Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, University of Vienna [Vienna], Reichman University [Herzliya], Aalto University, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), National Taiwan University [Taiwan] (NTU), HEMS School, BI Norwegian Business School [Oslo], University of Limerick (UL), Karolinska Institutet [Stockholm], University of Agder (UIA), Lehigh University [Bethlehem], Monk Prayogshala, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität = Friedrich Schiller University Jena [Jena, Germany], Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich (ETH Zurïch), University of Bayreuth, National School of Political and Administrative Studies (SNSPA), Plovdiv University 'Paisii Hilendarski', Indian Institute of Management Indore (IMM Indore), Institute of Social Sciences Belgrade, Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), Royal Holloway [University of London] (RHUL), University of London [London], National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, University of Latvia (LU), New York University [New York] (NYU), NYU System (NYU), University of Canterbury [Christchurch], Hebei University of Technology [Tianjin], Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique [Ben Guerir] (UM6P), AnsuR Technologies [Fornebu], Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD), Victoria University [Melbourne], University of Wrocław [Poland] (UWr), IMT Institute for Advanced Studies [Lucca], Université de Florence, Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), TBS Education, Slovak Academy of Science [Bratislava] (SAS), Santa Catarina State University (UDESC), University of Bologna/Università di Bologna, Tribhuvan University, Shenzhen Univerisity [Shenzhen], University of Virginia, Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), Université de Toulouse (UT), University of Western Ontario (UWO), Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Laboratoire de Psychologie Sociale et Cognitive (LAPSCO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), University of British Columbia (UBC), University of Queensland [Brisbane], Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster = University of Münster (WWU), The University of Sydney, University of Waterloo [Waterloo], University of North Carolina [Chapel Hill] (UNC), University of North Carolina System (UNC), University of Colorado [Boulder], University of Regensburg, Kyiv School of economic (KSE), Linköping University (LIU), Monash University [Clayton], Ansbach University of Applied Sciences, Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] (LMU), Department of Management - London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Questrom School of Business, Boston University [Boston] (BU), Dublin City University [Dublin] (DCU), University of Auckland [Auckland], Maria Curie-Sklodowska University (UMCS), City University of New York [New York] (CUNY), University of Alberta, Australian National University (ANU), University of Silesia in Katowice, Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Zhejiang University, Mackenzie Presbyterian University [São Paulo] (UPM), NYU Department of Psychology [New-York University], NYU System (NYU)-NYU System (NYU), University of Turku, City College of New York [CUNY] (CCNY), University of Groningen [Groningen], Carleton University, Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris (DEC), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Faculté de Gouvernance, Sciences Économiques et Sociales [UM6P] (FGSES), University College of London [London] (UCL), Susquehanna University, University of Antwerp (UA), University of Exeter, University of Koblenz-Landau, Nicolaus Copernicus University [Toruń], University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Kyushu University, Kadir Has University (KHAS), Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Vidyasagar College For Women, Koç University, Hult International Business School, Boǧaziçi üniversitesi = Boğaziçi University [Istanbul], Penn State Abington, Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE)-Penn State System, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), Social Psychology, IBBA, A-LAB, University of St Andrews. Philosophy, University of St Andrews. School of Psychology and Neuroscience, Pavlović, Tomislav [0000-0002-4470-3715], Azevedo, Flavio [0000-0001-9000-8513], De, Koustav [0000-0001-9562-0672], Riaño-Moreno, Julián C [0000-0003-4182-0550], Maglić, Marina [0000-0002-6851-4601], Gkinopoulos, Theofilos [0000-0003-1070-6245], Donnelly-Kehoe, Patricio Andreas [0000-0002-3738-9537], Payán-Gómez, César [0000-0002-0633-1332], Huang, Guanxiong [0000-0002-8588-1454], Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw [0000-0002-1186-5427], Birtel, Michèle D [0000-0002-2383-9197], Schönegger, Philipp [0000-0001-9930-487X], Capraro, Valerio [0000-0002-0579-0166], Santamaría-García, Hernando [0000-0001-9422-3579], Yucel, Meltem [0000-0002-7274-5971], Ibanez, Agustin [0000-0001-6758-5101], Rathje, Steve [0000-0001-6727-571X], Wetter, Erik [0000-0002-5821-6651], Stanojević, Dragan [0000-0002-3667-2461], van Prooijen, Jan-Willem [0000-0001-6236-0819], Hesse, Eugenia [0000-0002-9077-9833], Elbaek, Christian T [0000-0002-7039-4565], Franc, Renata [0000-0002-1909-2393], Pavlović, Zoran [0000-0002-9231-5100], Mitkidis, Panagiotis [0000-0002-9495-7369], Cichocka, Aleksandra [0000-0003-1703-1586], Alfano, Mark [0000-0001-5879-8033], Ross, Robert M [0000-0001-8711-1675], Sjåstad, Hallgeir [0000-0002-8730-1038], Nezlek, John B [0000-0003-4963-3637], Cislak, Aleksandra [0000-0002-9880-6947], Lockwood, Patricia [0000-0001-7195-9559], Abts, Koen [0000-0001-8546-8347], Agadullina, Elena [0000-0002-1505-1412], Amodio, David M [0000-0001-7746-0150], Apps, Matthew AJ [0000-0001-5793-2202], Aruta, John Jamir Benzon [0000-0003-4155-1063], Besharati, Sahba [0000-0003-2836-7982], Bor, Alexander [0000-0002-2624-9221], Choma, Becky [0000-0002-8286-8983], Ejaz, Waqas [0000-0002-2492-4115], Farmer, Harry [0000-0002-3684-0605], Findor, Andrej [0000-0002-5896-6989], Gjoneska, Biljana [0000-0003-1200-6672], Gualda, Estrella [0000-0003-0220-2135], Huynh, Toan LD [0000-0002-6653-7447], Imran, Mostak Ahamed [0000-0002-5101-3149], Israelashvili, Jacob [0000-0003-1289-223X], Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Elena [0000-0001-8128-7290], Krouwel, André [0000-0003-0952-6028], Kutiyski, Yordan [0000-0003-0889-4232], Laakasuo, Michael [0000-0003-2826-6073], Lamm, Claus [0000-0002-5422-0653], Levy, Jonathan [0000-0003-1007-2393], Leygue, Caroline [0000-0002-0355-1030], Lin, Ming-Jen [0000-0002-7174-2226], Mansoor, Mohammad Sabbir [0000-0002-6541-3506], Marie, Antoine [0000-0002-7958-0153], Mayiwar, Lewend [0000-0003-1404-4779], Mazepus, Honorata [0000-0002-5005-9399], McHugh, Cillian [0000-0002-9701-3232], Olsson, Andreas [0000-0001-5272-7744], Otterbring, Tobias [0000-0002-0283-8777], Packer, Dominic [0000-0001-8420-6548], Palomäki, Jussi [0000-0001-6063-0926], Perry, Anat [0000-0003-2329-856X], Petersen, Michael Bang [0000-0002-6782-5635], Puthillam, Arathy [0000-0003-2426-8362], Rothmund, Tobias [0000-0003-2979-5129], Schmid, Petra C [0000-0002-9990-5445], Stadelmann, David [0000-0002-1211-9936], Stoica, Augustin [0000-0003-0585-1114], Stoyanov, Drozdstoy [0000-0002-9975-3680], Stoyanova, Kristina [0000-0001-8362-6444], Tewari, Shruti [0000-0003-1903-7252], Todosijević, Bojan [0000-0002-6116-993X], Torgler, Benno [0000-0002-9809-963X], Tsakiris, Manos [0000-0001-7753-7576], Tung, Hans H [0000-0001-5332-7582], Umbreș, Radu Gabriel [0000-0002-6121-4518], Vanags, Edmunds [0000-0003-1932-936X], Vlasceanu, Madalina [0000-0003-2138-1968], Vonasch, Andrew J [0000-0002-2784-5420], Zhang, Yucheng [0000-0001-9435-6734], Abad, Mohcine [0000-0002-4964-5411], Adler, Eli [0000-0002-9005-5536], Mdarhri, Hamza Alaoui [0000-0001-9831-6561], Antazo, Benedict [0000-0001-9993-8960], Ay, F Ceren [0000-0003-4444-2268], Ba, Mouhamadou El Hady [0000-0002-2707-1242], Barbosa, Sergio [0000-0003-1989-158X], Bastian, Brock [0000-0003-4619-3322], Berg, Anton [0000-0001-7143-762X], Białek, Michał [0000-0002-5062-5733], Bilancini, Ennio [0000-0002-2027-3992], Bogatyreva, Natalia [0000-0002-6024-2322], Boncinelli, Leonardo [0000-0003-0626-5133], Booth, Jonathan E [0000-0002-8563-4613], Borau, Sylvie [0000-0003-1564-0695], Buchel, Ondrej [0000-0002-0139-5513], de Carvalho, Chrissie Ferreira [0000-0002-1369-6188], Celadin, Tatiana [0000-0002-7743-3117], Cerami, Chiara [0000-0003-1974-3421], Chalise, Hom Nath [0000-0002-9301-6890], Cian, Luca [0000-0002-8051-1366], Cockcroft, Kate [0000-0002-6166-8050], Conway, Jane [0000-0003-3883-349X], Córdoba-Delgado, Mateo A [0000-0002-2264-7388], Crespi, Chiara [0000-0002-7851-9887], Crouzevialle, Marie [0000-0002-5538-6030], Cutler, Jo [0000-0003-1073-764X], Cypryańska, Marzena [0000-0001-9234-562X], Dabrowska, Justyna [0000-0002-8821-7161], Davis, Victoria H [0000-0002-7207-4629], Minda, John Paul [0000-0002-4081-010X], Dayley, Pamala N [0000-0001-8955-9502], Delouvée, Sylvain [0000-0002-4029-597X], Denkovski, Ognjan [0000-0002-9739-4100], Dezecache, Guillaume [0000-0002-9366-6287], Dhaliwal, Nathan A [0000-0002-4667-0689], Di Paolo, Roberto [0000-0002-6081-6656], Dulleck, Uwe [0000-0002-0953-5963], Ekmanis, Jānis [0000-0003-1781-1785], Etienne, Tom W [0000-0002-4299-6593], Farkhari, Fahima [0000-0002-8484-5128], Fidanovski, Kristijan [0000-0002-9006-0140], Flew, Terry [0000-0003-4485-9338], Fraser, Shona [0000-0003-1505-0652], Frempong, Raymond Boadi [0000-0002-4603-5570], Fugelsang, Jonathan [0000-0002-6342-7023], Gale, Jessica [0000-0001-5677-8629], García-Navarro, E Begoña [0000-0001-6913-8882], Gray, Kurt [0000-0001-5816-2676], Griffin, Siobhán M [0000-0002-3613-2844], Gronfeldt, Bjarki [0000-0001-9941-7903], Gruber, June [0000-0002-7789-1353], Halperin, Eran [0000-0002-3379-2935], Herzon, Volo [0000-0001-7781-1651], Hruška, Matej [0000-0002-4521-3697], Hudecek, Matthias FC [0000-0002-7696-766X], Isler, Ozan [0000-0002-4638-2230], Jangard, Simon [0000-0002-7876-4161], Jørgensen, Frederik [0000-0002-5461-912X], Keudel, Oleksandra [0000-0001-6322-3103], Koppel, Lina [0000-0002-6302-0047], Koverola, Mika [0000-0001-8227-6120], Kunnari, Anton [0000-0002-2951-6399], Leota, Josh [0000-0002-7714-4630], Lermer, Eva [0000-0002-6600-9580], Li, Chunyun [0000-0001-5909-0889], Longoni, Chiara [0000-0002-4945-4957], McCashin, Darragh [0000-0003-2686-2111], Mikloušić, Igor [0000-0002-6539-2901], Monroy-Fonseca, César [0000-0003-4696-8159], Morales-Marente, Elena [0000-0002-1227-9606], Moreau, David [0000-0002-1957-1941], Muda, Rafał [0000-0003-4953-6642], Myer, Annalisa [0000-0002-2363-4757], Nash, Kyle [0000-0003-0461-3835], Nitschke, Jonas P [0000-0002-3244-8585], Nurse, Matthew S [0000-0003-1787-5914], de Mello, Victoria Oldemburgo [0000-0003-2867-8529], Palacios-Galvez, Maria Soledad [0000-0002-6802-6202], Pan, Yafeng [0000-0002-5633-8313], Papp, Zsófia [0000-0001-6257-0568], Pärnamets, Philip [0000-0001-8360-9097], Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola [0000-0002-8716-9778], Perander, Silva [0000-0001-6711-8079], Pitman, Michael [0000-0001-5532-5388], Raza, Ali [0000-0002-2438-6054], Rêgo, Gabriel Gaudencio [0000-0003-3304-4723], Robertson, Claire [0000-0001-8403-6358], Rodríguez-Pascual, Iván [0000-0002-5385-3643], Saikkonen, Teemu [0000-0001-9619-3270], Salvador-Ginez, Octavio [0000-0002-1652-8788], Sampaio, Waldir M [0000-0002-6066-4314], Santi, Gaia Chiara [0000-0002-9253-6122], Schultner, David [0000-0003-2253-4065], Schutte, Enid [0000-0002-6653-5409], Scott, Andy [0000-0002-3294-0078], Skali, Ahmed [0000-0002-4753-3280], Stefaniak, Anna [0000-0002-1706-7784], Sternisko, Anni [0000-0002-2507-3076], Strickland, Brent [0000-0002-7573-3722], Thomas, Jeffrey P [0000-0002-5939-5559], Tinghög, Gustav [0000-0002-8159-1249], Tucciarelli, Raffaele [0000-0002-0342-308X], Tyrala, Michael [0000-0001-5268-8319], Ungson, Nick D [0000-0003-2494-4498], Uysal, Mete Sefa [0000-0002-8698-9213], Van Rooy, Dirk [0000-0003-2525-5408], Västfjäll, Daniel [0000-0003-2873-4500], Vieira, Joana B [0000-0001-7335-4588], von Sikorski, Christian [0000-0002-3787-8277], Walker, Alexander C [0000-0003-1431-6770], Watermeyer, Jennifer [0000-0001-7918-8832], Willardt, Robin [0000-0002-2495-3450], Wohl, Michael JA [0000-0001-6945-5562], Wójcik, Adrian Dominik [0000-0002-7073-6019], Wu, Kaidi [0000-0001-6881-7437], Yamada, Yuki [0000-0003-1431-568X], Yilmaz, Onurcan [0000-0002-6094-7162], Yogeeswaran, Kumar [0000-0002-1978-5077], Ziemer, Carolin-Theresa [0000-0002-0794-7702], Zwaan, Rolf A [0000-0001-9967-7879], Boggio, Paulo Sergio [0000-0002-6109-0447], Van Lange, Paul AM [0000-0001-7774-6984], Prasad, Rajib [0000-0003-0913-1624], Onderco, Michal [0000-0001-9911-3782], O'Madagain, Cathal [0000-0002-4086-524X], Nesh-Nash, Tarik [0000-0002-5532-9095], Kubin, Emily [0000-0003-0606-8594], Gümren, Mert [0000-0002-3298-6295], Fenwick, Ali [0000-0002-5412-9745], Ertan, Arhan S [0000-0001-9730-8391], Bernstein, Michael J [0000-0002-8083-9839], Amara, Hanane [0000-0003-0732-2320], Van Bavel, Jay Joseph [0000-0002-2520-0442], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Sociale Psychologie (Psychologie, FMG), ASCoR Other Research (FMG), Department of Neuroscience and Biomedical Engineering, Aalto-yliopisto, Department of Digital Humanities, Department of Psychology and Logopedics, Cognitive Science, High Performance Cognition group, Mind and Matter, and Department of Computer Science

Subjects
Hälso- och sjukvårdsorganisation, hälsopolitik och hälsoekonomi, Economics, COVID-19, social distancing, hygiene, policy support, public health measures, J Political Science, [SHS.PSY]Humanities and Social Sciences/Psychology, psychology, Settore SECS-P/02 - Politica Economica, Q1, H Social Sciences, [STAT.ML]Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML], SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, RA0421, RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine, Machine learning, Psychology, Nationalekonomi, Settore SECS-P/01 - Economia Politica, MCC, Computer. Automation, Psykologi (exklusive tillämpad psykologi), DAS, Health Care Service and Management, Health Policy and Services and Health Economy, [SHS.SCIPO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Political science, Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology), machine learning, Settore SECS-P/03 - Scienza delle Finanze, 5171 Political Science, Human medicine, COVID-19, social distancing, hygiene, policy support, public health measures
Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic., PNAS Nexus, 1 (3), ISSN:2752-6542

Published
2022
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8. Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries

Author

Roland Imhoff, Felix Zimmer, Olivier Klein, João H. C. António, Maria Babinska, Adrian Bangerter, Michal Bilewicz, Nebojša Blanuša, Kosta Bovan, Rumena Bužarovska, Aleksandra Cichocka, Sylvain Delouvée, Karen M. Douglas, Asbjørn Dyrendal, Tom Etienne, Biljana Gjoneska, Sylvie Graf, Estrella Gualda, Gilad Hirschberger, Anna Kende, Yordan Kutiyski, Peter Krekó, Andre Krouwel, Silvia Mari, Jasna Milošević Đorđević, Maria Serena Panasiti, Myrto Pantazi, Ljupcho Petkovski, Giuseppina Porciello, André Rabelo, Raluca Nicoleta Radu, Florin A. Sava, Michael Schepisi, Robbie M. Sutton, Viren Swami, Hulda Thórisdóttir, Vladimir Turjačanin, Pascal Wagner-Egger, Iris Žeželj, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Imhoff, R, Zimmer, F, Klein, O, António, J, Babinska, M, Bangerter, A, Bilewicz, M, Blanuša, N, Bovan, K, Bužarovska, R, Cichocka, A, Delouvée, S, Douglas, K, Dyrendal, A, Etienne, T, Gjoneska, B, Graf, S, Gualda, E, Hirschberger, G, Kende, A, Kutiyski, Y, Krekó, P, Krouwel, A, Mari, S, Đorđević, J, Panasiti, M, Pantazi, M, Petkovski, L, Porciello, G, Rabelo, A, Radu, R, Sava, F, Schepisi, M, Sutton, R, Swami, V, Thórisdóttir, H, Turjačanin, V, Wagner-Egger, P, Žeželj, I, van Prooijen, J, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), Social Psychology, IBBA, A-LAB, and Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, Social Psychology, 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Conspiracy theories, BF, Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Justice and Strong Institutions, political orientaton, Behavioral Neuroscience, Political orientation, Nema ključnih riječi, conspiracy mentality, 150 Psychology
Abstract

People differ in their general tendency to endorse conspiracy theories (that is, conspiracy mentality). Previous research yielded inconsistent findings on the relationship between conspiracy mentality and political orientation, showing a greater conspiracy mentality either among the political right (a linear relation) or amongst both the left and right extremes (a curvilinear relation). We revisited this relationship across two studies spanning 26 countries (combined N = 104,253) and found overall evidence for both linear and quadratic relations, albeit small and heterogeneous across countries. We also observed stronger support for conspiracy mentality among voters of opposition parties (that is, those deprived of political control). Nonetheless, the quadratic effect of political orientation remained significant when adjusting for political control deprivation. We conclude that conspiracy mentality is associated with extreme left- and especially extreme right-wing beliefs, and that this non-linear relation may be strengthened by, but is not reducible to, deprivation of political control.

Published
2022
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9. Just a flu? Self-perceived infection mediates the link between conspiracy beliefs and Covid-19 health beliefs and behaviors

Author

Yordan Kutiyski, André Krouwel, Tom Etienne, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), Social Psychology, IBBA, A-LAB, RS: FdR Institute MICS, and Criminal Law and Criminology

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Distancing, media_common.quotation_subject, Intention, conspiracy theories, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Pandemic, Self perceived, Humans, institutional trust, IDEATION, Pandemics, health beliefs and behaviors, Applied Psychology, media_common, Distrust, Vaccination, PARANOIA, infection, humanities, Large sample, Medical test, Psychology, Covid-19, Social psychology
Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has inspired many conspiracy theories, which are associated with detrimental health beliefs and behaviors (e.g. reduced physical distancing; decreased vaccination intentions). We propose a previously unrecognized mediator of these relationships: A self-perceived likelihood to already have experienced a Covid-19 infection. Results from a large sample ( N = 9033) revealed that self-perceived infections mediated the link between conspiracy beliefs and health beliefs and behaviors. These findings emerged independently of institutional distrust, and actual infections as indicated by a positive medical test. These findings suggest that conspiracy beliefs shape people’s interpretation of the physical signals of their own body.

Published
2022
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10. COVID-19 en institutioneel vertrouwen

Author

André Krouwel, Okke de Vries, Laura van Heck, Yordan Kutiyski, Tom Étienne, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Published
2021

11. Political extremism and distrust: Does radical political orientation predict political distrust and negative attitudes towards European integration?

Author

Yordan Kutiyski, André Krouwel, Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Communication Science, Network Institute, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), Social Psychology, IBBA, and A-LAB

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, Political spectrum, Sociology and Political Science, Social Psychology, Distrust, media_common.quotation_subject, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Justice and Strong Institutions, populism, Biology and political orientation, Populism, Extremism, Politics, voter behavior, Political science, Political economy, European integration, Voting behavior, Ideology, Euroskepticism, media_common
Abstract

Institutional and political distrust are often associated with the improved electoral performance of extremist parties. This study analyses to what extent political distrust and Euroscepticism are associated with extreme left and right ideological positions. We specifically examine voters in the Netherlands – a country with wide array of political parties spanning a broad ideological spectrum. The study utilises probability samples from the Dutch National Election Survey and the European Election Studies, as well as opt-in samples collected through Vote Advice Applications (VAAs), amounting to a total of 20,548 analysed respondents. By employing hierarchical regression analyses, we find that across multiple elections at the national and European level, both radical left and radical right respondents are more prone to be politically distrustful and Eurosceptic, than respondents who profess a centrist political ideology. In addition, our analyses suggest that distrust and Euroscepticism can be explained by respondents’ party preference.

Published
2020
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12. Mapping parties in a multidimensional European political space : a comparative study of the EUvox and euandi party position data sets

Author

André Krouwel, Andres Reiljan, Yordan Kutiyski, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, Sociology and Political Science, media_common.quotation_subject, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, Space (commercial competition), spatial positions, Microeconomics, Politics, Political science, Voting, 050602 political science & public administration, media_common.cataloged_instance, European union, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, media_common, reliability, Divergence (linguistics), SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, 05 social sciences, Polarization (politics), Justice and Strong Institutions, 0506 political science, ideological space, political parties, voting advice applications, Position (finance), Construct (philosophy)
Abstract

First published online: 18 January 2019 This study compares the spatial positioning of over 200 political parties across 28 European Union (EU) member states in two cross-national voting advice applications (VAAs) developed for the 2014 European elections: EUvox and euandi. We find that the two VAAs show highly similar results in terms of party positioning on the cultural liberal-conservative and pro-anti EU dimensions, while economic left–right placements converge less, especially concerning right-wing parties. Our analyses reveal that the higher overlap on the cultural and EU dimensions is a result, at least partially, of the inclusion of similar items used to measure these concepts, while most of the systematic divergence between the two VAAs in left–right placements stems from problematic issue-statements used in the dimensional calculations. We demonstrate how certain items can cause bias in the placements of specific party families by (1) not aligning with other statements that measure the same latent construct; (2) tapping into other latent constructs, in addition to the one they are supposed to measure; and (3) not inducing sufficient polarization between parties.

Published
2020
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13. Het electorale succes van het euroscepticisme

Author

André Krouwel, Nathalie Brack, Yordan Kutiyski, Wouter Wolfs, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Abstract

Bij de Europese verkiezingen van afgelopen maart verloren de traditionele volkspartijen terrein. Burgers straften zowel gevestigde regerings- als oppositiepartijen af voor het onvermogen de Eurocrisis op te lossen. In dit artikel laten we zien dat er grote onzekerheid en ontevredenheid bestaat over het proces van Europese eenwording, terwijl tegelijkertijd het Europees Parlement meer bevoegdheden heeft gekregen onder het Verdrag van Lissabon. Hoewel de uitslag van alle landen tezamen de onderlinge machtsverhoudingen tussen de politieke groeperingen in het Europees Parlement nauwelijks gewijzigd hebben, zijn de electorale verschuivingen binnen veel individuele landen aanzienlijk en hebben mogelijk verstrekkende gevolgen. In veel landen wonnen (radicaal) linkse en rechtse Eurosceptische of ronduit anti-Europese partijen. Radicaal populistisch rechts zag zijn steun toenemen in het Verenigd Koninkrijk, Duitsland, Frankrijk, Oostenrijk, Denemarken en Zweden - de welvarende Noorden –, terwijl in Griekenland en Italië de extreem-rechtse Gouden Dageraad en Grillo’s eurosceptische Vijfsterrenbeweging veel stemmen wonnen dankzij het anti-Europa sentiment in het zuiden van Europa. De landen die het zwaarst getroffen werden door de crisis, zoals Portugal en Spanje, toonden minder sensationele resultaten, maar ook daar nam de steun toe voor een aantal eurosceptische partijen. In Midden- en Oost-Europa komt een meer gemengd beeld naar voren, waarbij sommige landen een hoge volatiliteit en anderen meer stabiliteit vertoonden. Dit artikel analyseert de relatie tussen partijvoorkeuren en ideologische positie in één van de meest 'open' Europese meerpartijenstelsels - Nederland – tijdens twee Europese verkiezingen (van 2009 en 2014). We zien dat zowel radicaal linkse als radicaal rechtse kiezers soortgelijke negatieve houdingen laten zien ten aanzien van Europese integratie.

Published
2014

14. Does the Information Source Matter? Newspaper Readership, Political Preferences and Attitudes Towards the EU in the UK, France and the Netherlands

Author

Benjamin Leruth, Nicholas Startin, Yordan Kutiyski, and André Krouwel

Subjects
Via media, 05 social sciences, Sample (statistics), Advertising, 050601 international relations, 0506 political science, Audience measurement, Newspaper, Politics, Political science, Elite, 050602 political science & public administration, Information source, Mainstream
Abstract

Previous research has indicated that political radicals and cynics tend to obtain information from like-minded media sources. In this study, we relate media use to political preferences by utilising a cross-national large-N data set collected during the European elections in 2014 through an online opt-in sample and the European Election Studies (EES), in order to test whether individuals who are negatively opinionated towards the EU and the political elite get informed via media that have a similar attitude towards the EU and politics. Our findings indicate that Eurosceptic voters differ considerably from moderate and pro-European voters in terms of their daily media use. In addition, we find that getting informed via a left-wing- or a right-wing-oriented mainstream media matters, when explaining voter’s policy preferences.

Published
2017
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15. The malaise of the squeezed middle: Challenging the narrative of the ‘left behind’ Brexiter

Author

Lorenza Antonucci, Laszlo Horvath, André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Communication Science, Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC), and Network Institute

Subjects
Middle class, media_common.quotation_subject, 05 social sciences, 0507 social and economic geography, General Business, Management and Accounting, 0506 political science, Malaise, Globalization, Working class, Brexit, Political science, Voting, Referendum, SDG 1 - No Poverty, 050602 political science & public administration, medicine, media_common.cataloged_instance, Demographic economics, medicine.symptom, European union, 050703 geography, media_common
Abstract

The result of the referendum in the United Kingdom in 2016 to leave the European Union sparked much interest on the socio-economic characteristics of ‘Brexiters’. In this article, we challenge the popularized view of the Leave voter as an outsider and find that individuals from an intermediate class, whose malaise is due to a declining financial position, represent an important segment of the Brexit vote. We use individual-level data from a post-Brexit survey based on the British Election Study. Our analysis tests three predictive models. First, although our analysis confirms the negative association between education and Leave vote, we find that voting Leave is associated more with intermediate levels of education than with low or absent education, in particular in the presence of a perceived declining economic position. Secondly, we find that Brexiters hold distinct psycho-social features of malaise due to declining economic conditions, rather than anxiety or anger. Thirdly, our exploratory model finds voting Leave associated with self-identification as middle class, rather than with working class. We also find that intermediate levels of income were not more likely to vote for remain than low income groups. Overall our analysis of the Brexit vote underlines the importance of considering the political behaviour of the declining middle.

Published
2017
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18. Narrowing the Gap: Explaining the Increasing Competitiveness of the Venezuelan Opposition

Author

Yordan Kutiyski, André Krouwel, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Subjects
Vision, SDG 16 - Peace, Sociology and Political Science, business.industry, media_common.quotation_subject, 05 social sciences, Geography, Planning and Development, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Opposition (politics), Public relations, Public opinion, 050601 international relations, Democracy, Justice and Strong Institutions, 0506 political science, Voting, Political economy, Political Science and International Relations, 050602 political science & public administration, Survey data collection, Sociology, business, media_common
Abstract

This article seeks to explain why electoral support for the Venezuelan opposition has increased substantially, using Venezuelan public opinion survey data from LAPOP and an opt-in sample collected through the online vote advice application Brújula Presidencial Venezuela. It analyzes why Venezuelans who had either voted for Chávez or abstained in 2006 defected and started to support the opposition in subsequent elections. It proposes several reasons: negative voter evaluations of the economy, concern for public safety, and dissatisfaction with Venezuelan democracy. While the finding that negative policy evaluations boost support for the opposition aligns with theoretical expectations, this study finds a strong relationship between having different evaluations of the quality of democracy and supporting Chávez, which shows that the advocacy of two competing visions of democracy by the incumbent and the opposition also affects voting patterns in Venezuela.

Published
2014
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19. Radical Choices Voiced Online. The Determinants of Populist Support in France and in The Netherlands

Author

Vitiello, T. F. P., André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Justice and Strong Institutions
Abstract

Hypotheses on why people vote for populist parties are abound, yet academic findings are inconclusive. Some suggest that populist parties’ success is due to their candidates’ appeal, others see as explanatory factors a general dissatisfaction with representative democracy or the agreement with populist policy proposals. Most studies– particularly those based on national elections studies– suffer from the problem that too few populist voters are identifiable and too little is known about their opinion structure to simultaneously test all these explanations. Through online Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) in The Netherlands and France we have compiled unique datasets including tens of thousands populist parties’ supporters with responses on a large number of issues, leadership evaluations and societal perceptions. By comparing the 2012 French and Dutch elections in which Marine Le Pen’s(Front National) and Geert Wilder’s PVV run, this study finds that despite the broadening political agenda of right-‐wing populist parties (RPPs), leadership evaluation and agreement on cultural issues remain the dominant drive of RPPs’ vote intention.

20. Finding the Way Forward. Positioning of Europe’s Progressive Parties and their Voters

Author

André Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Communication Science, Network Institute, and Communication Choices, Content and Consequences (CCCC)

Subjects
SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
Abstract

Four main strategies of social democratic competition can be distinguished when the official party positions on salient political issues are compared with the positions of core voter groups on the same issues: 1) Corbynism (Left-wing economic polarisation); 2) Macronism (pro-market economic polarisation coupled with culturally progressive/libertarian stances); 3) Progressive-libertarian distancing (the adoption of moderate economic stances with culturally progressive policies) and 4) Catch-all (traditional social democratic centrism). The results from the European countries included in the study show that, with regard to the relative positioning of social democratic parties visà-vis their core voter groups, the most beneficial strategies, in terms of electoral appeal, are the traditional social-democratic catch-all strategy of moderation along both the economic and cultural dimensions, as well as the Corbynist strategy of polarisation along the economic dimension.

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