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Background: Recent epidemiological studies investigating the modifying effect of air temperature in ozone-mortality associations lack consensus as how to adjust for nonlinear and lagged temperature effect in addition to including an interaction term. Methods: We evaluated the influence of temperature confounding control on temperature-stratified ozone-mortality risks in a time series setting in eight European cities and 86 US cities, respectively. To investigate potential residual confounding, we additionally incorporated next day's ozone in models with differing temperature control. Results: Using only a categorical variable for temperature or only controlling nonlinear effect of low temperatures yielded highly significant ozone effects at high temperatures but also significant residual confounding in both regions. Adjustment for nonlinear effect of temperature, especially high temperatures, substantially reduced ozone effects at high temperatures and residual confounding. Conclusions: Inadequate control for confounding by air temperature leads to residual confounding and an overestimation of the temperature-modifying effect in studies of ozone-related mortality. © 2018 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health

Oxidative potential (OP) has been suggested as a health-relevant measure of air pollution. Little information is available about OP spatial variation and the possibility to model its spatial variability. Our aim was to measure the spatial variation of OP within and between 10 European study areas. The second aim was to develop land use regression (LUR) models to explain the measured spatial variation. OP was determined with the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay in ten European study areas. DTT of PM2.5 was measured at 16–40 sites per study area, divided over street, urban and regional background sites. Three two-week samples were taken per site in a one-year period in three different seasons. We developed study-area specific LUR models and a LUR model for all study areas combined to explain the spatial variation of OP. Significant contrasts between study areas in OP were found. OP DTT levels were highest in southern Europe. DTT levels at street sites were on average 1.10 times higher than at urban background locations. In 5 of the 10 study areas LUR models could be developed with a median R2 of 33%. A combined study area model explained 30% of the measured spatial variability. Overall, LUR models did not explain spatial variation well, possibly due to low levels of OP DTT and a lack of specific predictor variables. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

Background: Epidemiologic evidence on the association between short-term exposure to ultrafine particles and mortality is weak, due to the lack of routine measurements of these particles and standardized multicenter studies. We investigated the relationship between ultrafine particles and particulate matter (PM) and daily mortality in eight European urban areas. Methods: We collected daily data on nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory mortality, particle number concentrations (as proxy for ultrafine particle number concentration), fine and coarse PM, gases and meteorologic parameters in eight urban areas of Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Greece, between 1999 and 2013. We applied city-specific time-series Poisson regression models and pooled them with random-effects meta-analysis. Results: We estimated a weak, delayed association between particle number concentration and nonaccidental mortality, with mortality increasing by approximately 0.35% per 10,000 particles/cm 3 increases in particle number concentration occurring 5 to 7 days before death. A similar pattern was found for cause-specific mortality. Estimates decreased after adjustment for fine particles (PM 2.5) or nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The stronger association found between particle number concentration and mortality in the warmer season (1.14% increase) became null after adjustment for other pollutants. Conclusions: We found weak evidence of an association between daily ultrafine particles and mortality. Further studies are required with standardized protocols for ultrafine particle data collection in multiple European cities over extended study periods. © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

We refined an urban-scale dispersion modelling system by adding a road dust suspension model, FORE. The deterministic modelling includes both vehicular exhaust emissions (including cold start and cold driving) and suspended road dust. The urban scale modelling system was used in combination with the regional scale chemical transport model LOTOS- EUROS, for 2008, and the measured regional background concentrations, for 2010. The predictions were compared against measured concentrations of PM 2.5 and PM 10 . PM 2.5 concentrations were slightly and the PM 10 concentrations substantially under-predicted in 2008, mainly due to the under-predicted regional background concentration. Source contri- butions of suspended road dust varied from 2% to 8% and from 12% to 38% for PM 2.5 and PM 10 , respectively. Long-range transported contributions at the urban traffic stations were 72% to 92% for PM 2.5 and 50% to 83% for PM 10 .

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution may be associated with impaired mental health, including depression. However, evidence originates mainly from animal studies and epidemiological studies in specific subgroups. We investigated the association between air pollution and depressed mood in four European general population cohorts. METHODS: Data were obtained from LifeLines (the Netherlands), KORA (Germany), HUNT (Norway), and FINRISK (Finland). Residential exposure to particles (PM2.5, PM2.5absorbance, PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was estimated using land use regression (LUR) models developed for the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) and using European wide LUR models. Depressed mood was assessed with interviews and questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the cohort specific associations between air pollution and depressed mood. RESULTS: A total of 70,928 participants were included in our analyses. Depressed mood ranged from 1.6% (KORA) to 11.3% (FINRISK). Cohort specific associations of the air pollutants and depressed mood showed heterogeneous results. For example, positive associations were found for NO2 in LifeLines (odds ratio [OR]=1.34; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.53 per 10μg/m(3) increase in NO2), whereas negative associations were found in HUNT (OR=0.79; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.94 per 10μg/m(3) increase in NO2). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses of four European general population cohorts found no consistent evidence for an association between ambient air pollution and depressed mood.

We have previously reported that outdoor levels of fine particles (PM(2.5), diameter2.5 microm) are associated with urinary CC16, a marker for lung damage, in Helsinki, Finland, but not in the other two ULTRA cities (Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and Erfurt, Germany). We here evaluated whether PM(2.5) from specific source categories would be more strongly associated with CC16 than (total) PM(2.5). In addition, we compared two source apportionment methods.We collected biweekly spot urinary samples over 6 months from 121 subjects with coronary heart disease for the determination of CC16 (n = 1251). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to apportion daily outdoor PM(2.5) between different source categories. In addition, the multilinear engine (ME) was used for the source apportionment in Amsterdam and Helsinki. We analyzed associations of source category-specific PM(2.5) and PM(2.5) absorbance, an indicator for combustion originating particles, with logarithmized values of CC16 adjusting for urinary creatinine using multivariate mixed models in STATA.In the pooled analyses, CC16 was increased by 0.6% (standard error 0.3%) per 1 x 10(-5) m(-1) increase in the same-day levels of PM(2.5) absorbance. Source category-specific PM(2.5) concentrations were not consistently associated with the levels of CC16 in the three cities. Correlations between source category-specific PM(2.5) determined using either PCA or ME were in general high. Associations of source category-specific PM(2.5) with CC16 in Amsterdam and Helsinki were statistically less significant when ME was used.The present results suggest that PM(2.5) from combustion sources increases epithelial barrier permeability in lungs.

Background: Studies have shown associations between mortality and long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution. Few cohort studies have estimated the effects of the elemental composition of particulate matter on mortality. oBjectives: Our aim was to study the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to elemental components of particulate matter. Methods: Mortality and confounder data from 19 European cohort studies were used. Residential exposure to eight a priori–selected components of particulate matter (PM) was characterized following a strictly standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM size fractions ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ≤ 10 μm (PM10) were estimated using land-use regression models. Cohort-specific statistical analyses of the associations between mortality and air pollution were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models using a common protocol followed by meta-analysis. results: The total study population consisted of 291,816 participants, of whom 25,466 died from a natural cause during follow-up (average time of follow-up, 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200 ng/m3). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass was reduced. conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural-cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5. © 2015, Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved.

Background: Land use regression (LUR) models have been developed mostly to explain intraurban variations in air pollution based on often small local monitoring campaigns. Transferability of LUR models from city to city has been investigated, but little is known about the performance of models based on large numbers of monitoring sites covering a large area. Objectives: We aimed to develop European and regional LUR models and to examine their transferability to areas not used for model development. Methods: We evaluated LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM; PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance) by combining standardized measurement data from 17 (PM) and 23 (NO2) ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) study areas across 14 European countries for PM and NO2. Models were evaluated with cross-validation (CV) and hold-out validation (HV). We investigated the transferability of the models by successively excluding each study area from model building. Results: The European model explained 56% of the concentration variability across all sites for NO2, 86% for PM2.5, and 70% for PM2.5 absorbance. The HV R2s were only slightly lower than the model R2 (NO2, 54%; PM2.5, 80%; PM2.5 absorbance, 70%). The European NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 absorbance models explained a median of 59%, 48%, and 70% of within-area variability in individual areas. The transferred models predicted a modest-to-large fraction of variability in areas that were excluded from model building (median R2: NO2, 59%; PM2.5, 42%; PM2.5 absorbance, 67%). Conclusions: Using a large data set from 23 European study areas, we were able to develop LUR models for NO2 and PM metrics that predicted measurements made at independent sites and areas reasonably well. This finding is useful for assessing exposure in health studies conducted in areas where no measurements were conducted.

Land use regression (LUR) models have been used to model concentrations of mainly traffic-related air pollutants (nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM) mass or absorbance). Few LUR models are published of PM composition, whereas the interest in health effects related to particle composition is increasing. The aim of our study was to evaluate LUR models of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), hopanes/steranes, and elemental and organic carbon (EC/OC) content of PM2.5. In 10 European study areas, PAH, hopanes/steranes, and EC/OC concentrations were measured at 16-40 sites per study area. LUR models for each study area were developed on the basis of annual average concentrations and predictor variables including traffic, population, industry, natural land obtained from geographic information systems. The highest median model explained variance (R2) was found for EC - 84%. The median R2 was 51% for OC, 67% for benzo[a]pyrene, and 38% for sum of hopanes/steranes, with large variability between study areas. Traffic predictors were included in most models. Population and natural land were included frequently as additional predictors. The moderate to high explained variance of LUR models and the overall moderate correlation with PM2.5 model predictions support the application of especially the OC and PAH models in epidemiological studies. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

Background: Land-use regression (LUR) and dispersion models (DM) are commonly used for estimating individual air pollution exposure in population studies. Few comparisons have however been made of the performance of these methods. Objectives: Within the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) we explored the differences between LUR and DM estimates for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. Methods: The ESCAPE study developed LUR models for outdoor air pollution levels based on a harmonised monitoring campaign. In thirteen ESCAPE study areas we further applied dispersion models. We compared LUR and DM estimates at the residential addresses of participants in 13 cohorts for NO2; 7 for PM10 and 4 for PM2.5. Additionally, we compared the DM estimates with measured concentrations at the 20-40 ESCAPE monitoring sites in each area. Results: The median Pearson R (range) correlation coefficients between LUR and DM estimates for the annual average concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 were 0.75 (0.19-0.89), 0.39 (0.23-0.66) and 0.29 (0.22-0.81) for 112,971 (13 study areas), 69,591 (7) and 28,519 (4) addresses respectively. The median Pearson R correlation coefficients (range) between DM estimates and ESCAPE measurements were of 0.74 (0.09-0.86) for NO2; 0.58 (0.36-0.88) for PM10 and 0.58 (0.39-0.66) for PM2.5. Conclusions: LUR and dispersion model estimates correlated on average well for NO2 but only moderately for PM10 and PM2.5, with large variability across areas. DM predicted a moderate to large proportion of the measured variation for NO2 but less for PM10 and PM2.5. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Background: Air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular mortality, but it remains unclear as to whether specific pollutants are related to specific cardiovascular causes of death. Within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we investigated the associations of long-term exposure to several air pollutants with all cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, as well as with specific cardiovascular causes of death. Methods: Data from 22 European cohort studies were used. Using a standardized protocol, study area-specific air pollution exposure at the residential address was characterized as annual average concentrations of the following: nitrogen oxides (NO2and NOx); particles with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and 10 μm to 2.5 μm (PMcoarse); PM2.5absorbance estimated by land-use regression models; and traffic indicators. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazards models using a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled effect estimates. Results: The total study population consisted of 367,383 participants, with 9994 deaths from CVD (including 4,992 from ischemic heart disease, 2264 from myocardial infarction, and 2484 from cerebrovascular disease). All hazard ratios were approximately 1.0, except for particle mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality; for PM2.5, the hazard ratio was 1.21 (95% confidence interval = 0.87-1.69) per 5 μg/m and for PM10, 1.22 (0.91-1.63) per 10 μg/m. Conclusion: In a joint analysis of data from 22 European cohorts, most hazard ratios for the association of air pollutants with mortality from overall CVD and with specific CVDs were approximately 1.0, with the exception of particulate mass and cerebrovascular disease mortality for which there was suggestive evidence for an association. Copyright © 2014 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Estimating within-city variability in air pollution concentrations is important. Land use regression (LUR) models are able to explain such small-scale within-city variations. Transparency in LUR model development methods is important to facilitate comparison of methods between different studies. We therefore developed LUR models in a standardized way in 36 study areas in Europe for the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) project.Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were measured with Ogawa passive samplers at 40 or 80 sites in each of the 36 study areas. The spatial variation in each area was explained by LUR modelling. Centrally and locally available Geographic Information System (GIS) variables were used as potential predictors. A leave-one out cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the model performance.There was substantial contrast in annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations within the study areas. The model explained variances (R2) of the LUR models ranged from 55% to 92% (median 82%) for NO2 and from 49% to 91% (median 78%) for NOx. For most areas the cross-validation R2 was less than 10% lower than the model R2. Small-scale traffic and population/household density were the most common predictors. The magnitude of the explained variance depended on the contrast in measured concentrations as well as availability of GIS predictors, especially traffic intensity data were important. In an additional evaluation, models in which local traffic intensity was not offered had 10% lower R2 compared to models in the same areas in which these variables were offered.Within the ESCAPE project it was possible to develop LUR models that explained a large fraction of the spatial variance in measured annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations. These LUR models are being used to estimate outdoor concentrations at the home addresses of participants in over 30 cohort studies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used to describe and model spatial variability of annual mean concentrations of traffic related pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). No models have yet been published of elemental composition. As part of the ESCAPE project, we measured the elemental composition in both the PM10 and PM2.5 fraction sizes at 20 sites in each of 20 study areas across Europe. LUR models for eight a priori selected elements (copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)) were developed. Good models were developed for Cu, Fe, and Zn in both fractions (PM10 and PM 2.5) explaining on average between 67 and 79% of the concentration variance (R2) with a large variability between areas. Traffic variables were the dominant predictors, reflecting nontailpipe emissions. Models for V and S in the PM10 and PM2.5 fractions and Si, Ni, and K in the PM10 fraction performed moderately with R2 ranging from 50 to 61%. Si, NI, and K models for PM2.5 performed poorest with R2 under 50%. The LUR models are used to estimate exposures to elemental composition in the health studies involved in ESCAPE. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

In the TRANSPHORM study, noise exposures during commuting were measured. Measurements were performed with noise dosimeters in three European cities, Helsinki, Thessaloniki and Rotterdam, during spring 2011. ln each city, two to five approximately 8 km commuting routes were selected to represent typical commuting routes of the city population. Measurement campaigns lasted for 6 days, each day including 4 one-way drives on the same study route with a bike, a bus and a car with first open and then closed windows. In Helsinki, the median La"o levels were 72.9 dB, 7l .2 dB, 66.4 dB and 67.8 dB for a bicycle, a bus, a car with closed windows and a car with open co-driver window, respectively. Corresponding results in Thessaloniki were 74.9 d8,73.2 d8,70.7 dB and72.l dB. In Rotterdam, the median L¡,"0 level during bicycling was 69.3 dB and during the bus journeys 68.9 dB. There were clear differences between the cities in the noise levels, but in all cities bicyclers were exposed to the highest noise levels, followed by the bus passengers. It is unclear to what extent noise effects on the selection between a private car and eco-friendlier commuting modes.

Land use regression models (LUR) frequently use leave-one-out-cross- validation (LOOCV) to assess model fit, but recent studies suggested that this may overestimate predictive ability in independent data sets. Our aim was to evaluate LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) components exploiting the high correlation between concentrations of PM metrics and NO2. LUR models have been developed for NO2, PM2.5 absorbance, and copper (Cu) in PM10 based on 20 sites in each of the 20 study areas of the ESCAPE project. Models were evaluated with LOOCV and "hold-out evaluation (HEV)" using the correlation of predicted NO2 or PM concentrations with measured NO2 concentrations at the 20 additional NO2 sites in each area. For NO2, PM2.5 absorbance and PM10 Cu, the median LOOCV R2s were 0.83, 0.81, and 0.76 whereas the median HEV R 2 were 0.52, 0.44, and 0.40. There was a positive association between the LOOCV R2 and HEV R2 for PM2.5 absorbance and PM10 Cu. Our results confirm that the predictive ability of LUR models based on relatively small training sets is overestimated by the LOOCV R2s. Nevertheless, in most areas LUR models still explained a substantial fraction of the variation of concentrations measured at independent sites. © 2013 American Chemical Society.

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance, PM10, and PMcoarse were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R2) was 71% for PM2.5 (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R2 was higher for PM2.5 absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PMcoarse (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R2 was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R2 results were on average 8-11% lower than model R2. Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

INTRODUCTION: We have previously reported that outdoor levels of fine particles (PM(2.5), diameter

We refined an urban-scale dispersion modelling system by adding a road dust suspension model, FORE. The deterministic modelling includes both vehicular exhaust emissions (including cold start and cold driving) and suspended road dust. The urban scale modelling system was used in combination with the regional scale chemical transport model LOTOSEUROS, for 2008, and the measured regional background concentrations, for 2010. The predictions were compared against measured concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10. PM2.5 concentrations were slightly and the PM10concentrations substantially under-predicted in 2008, mainly due to the under-predicted regional background concentration. Source contributions of suspended road dust varied from 2% to 8% and from 12% to 38% for PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. Long-range transported contributions at the urban traffic stations were 72% to 92% for PM2.5 and 50% to 83% for PM10. © 2016.