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To derive and initially validate a brief bedside clinical decision support tool that identifies emergency department patients at high risk of substantial, persistent posttraumatic stress symptoms after a motor vehicle collision.Derivation (n=1,282, 19 ED sites) and validation (n=282, 11 separate ED sites) data were obtained from adults prospectively enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA study who were discharged from the ED after motor vehicle collision-related trauma. The primary outcome was substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms at 3 months (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 ≥38). Logistic regression derivation models were evaluated for discriminative ability using the area under the curve and the accuracy of predicted risk probabilities (Brier score). Candidate posttraumatic stress predictors assessed in these models (n=265) spanned a range of sociodemographic, baseline health, peritraumatic, and mechanistic domains. The final model selection was based on performance and ease of administration.Significant 3-month posttraumatic stress symptoms were common in the derivation (27%) and validation (26%) cohort. The area under the curve and Brier score of the final 8-question tool were 0.82 and 0.14 in the derivation cohort and 0.76 and 0.17 in the validation cohort.This simple 8-question tool demonstrates promise to risk-stratify individuals with substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms who are discharged to home after a motor vehicle collision. Both external validation of this instrument, and work to further develop more accurate tools, are needed. Such tools might benefit public health by enabling the conduct of preventive intervention trials and assisting the growing number of EDs that provide services to trauma survivors aimed at promoting psychological recovery.

Anxiety sensitivity, or fear of anxious arousal, is cross-sectionally associated with a wide array of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae, including symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatization. The current study utilizes a large-scale, multi-site, prospective study of trauma survivors presenting to emergency departments. Hypotheses tested whether elevated anxiety sensitivity in the immediate posttrauma period is associated with more severe and persistent trajectories of common adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the eight weeks posttrauma. Participants from the AURORA study (n = 2,269 recruited from 23 emergency departments) completed self-report assessments over eight weeks posttrauma. Associations between heightened anxiety sensitivity and more severe and/or persistent trajectories of trauma-related symptoms identified by growth mixture modeling were analyzed. Anxiety sensitivity assessed two weeks posttrauma was associated with severe and/or persistent posttraumatic stress, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatic symptoms in the eight weeks posttrauma. Effect sizes were in the small to medium range in multivariate models accounting for various demographic, trauma-related, pre-trauma mental health-related, and personality-related factors. Anxiety sensitivity may be a useful transdiagnostic risk factor in the immediate posttraumatic period identifying individuals at risk for the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Further, considering anxiety sensitivity is malleable via brief intervention, it could be a useful secondary prevention target. Future research should continue to evaluate associations between anxiety sensitivity and trauma-related pathology.