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High body mass index (BMI) has been associated with better survival in patients with end-stage kidney disease. Individuals with fatty liver disease (FLD) have a higher risk of chronic kidney disease. It remains unclear whether the survival benefit of high BMI in patients with chronic kidney disease is present when there is concomitant FLD. This study used the data set from the Third American National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the corresponding survival data. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the effect of BMI on mortality. A total of 12,445 participants were included. The prevalence of FLD was 39.8%. The median follow-up time (with interquartile range) was 22.8 (20.8-24.8) years. During this period, 3749 (30.1%, 14.4 of 1000 person-year) deaths were observed. Among these, 1169 (31.2%) died within the first 10 years. The Cox regression analysis showed that the BMI level was not associated with 25-year mortality in patients with decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR 60 ml/min/1.73 m

Data on the global epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infection (VZVI) is limited. This study aimed to investigate the burden of VZVI based on the global burden of disease study 2019 data. The age-standardized rates, including the incidence, death, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of VZVI were calculated to evaluate the disease burden of VZVI. The global numbers of incident and death cases due to VZVI were 83 963 744 and 14 553, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate of VZVI increased slightly all over the world, while the age-standardized death and DALYs rate decreased from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = -2.31 and -1.61, respectively). The younger age (5 years old) and older groups had the highest VZVI burden. The high sociodemographic index (SDI) region had the highest age-standardized incidence rates in 2019 (1236.28/100 000, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1156.66-1335.50) and the low SDI region had the lowest incidence (1111.24/100 000, 95% UI: 1040.46-1209.55). The age-standardized death and DALYs rate of VZVI decreased with the increase of SDI. Amongst the 21 geographical regions, the high-income Asia-Pacific (1269.08/100 000) region had the highest age-standardized incidence rate in 2019, while Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardized death and DALYs rate. The global incidence of VZVI has continued to increase in the past 3 decades, while the age-standardized death and DALYs rates have decreased. More attention should be paid to the younger and older population, as well as low SDI regions.

Previous studies have reported a potential anti-infection effect for vitamin D. However, the relationship between vitamin D status and herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection has not yet been evaluated. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and infection with HSV types 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and HSV-2). Data were collected from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2016. The association between 25(OH)D and HSV prevalence was evaluated using propensity score matching (PSM) and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Overall, 14 174 participants were included in the final analysis. Before PSM, 8639 (60.9%) had positive HSV-1 and 2636 (18.6%) had HSV-2. The HSV-1 and HSV-2 positive groups had more females and older individuals (p 0.05). The HSV-2 patients had lower 25(OH)D levels than those with HSV-1. Age and gender did not differ in the groups after PSM (p 0.05). The 25(OH)D level was significantly lower in the HSV-1 and HSV-2 groups than in the non-HSV infection groups. Multivariate logistic regression showed that serum 25(OH)D level was negatively associated with HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection (odds ratio [OR] = 0.730 and 0.691, p 0.001, respectively). Vitamin D deficiency was an independent risk factor for both HSV-1 and HSV-2 (adjusted OR = 2.205 and 2.704, p 0.001, respectively). Lower serum 25(OH)D levels correlated significantly with increased HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection risk.

Jiaofeng Huang,1,&ast; Wenjuan Xue,2,&ast; Mingfang Wang,1 Yinlian Wu,1 Medha Singh,3 Yueyong Zhu,1,4 Rahul Kumar,5 Su Lin1 1Department of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350005, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350005, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of General Medicine, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore; 4Fujian Key Laboratory of Precison Medicine for Cancer, the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Duke-NUS Academic Medical Centre, Changi General Hospital, Singapore&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Su LinDepartment of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 20, Chazhong Road, Taijiang District, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350005, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 591-87981657Fax +86 591-87982526Email sumer5129@fjmu.edu.cnIntroduction: Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a novel concept for fatty liver disease. Different from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the diagnosis of MAFLD requires the presence of metabolic risks. This study aimed to characterize patients with liver steatosis but without metabolic risks (non-MR-steatosis) which may not be diagnosed by MAFLD criteria.Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent biopsy were included in this study. The clinic-pathological characteristics of non-MR-steatosis, NAFLD and MAFLD were compared.Results: A total of 1217 cases were included. There were 426 (35.00%) cases with MAFLD, 585 (48.07%) with NAFLD and 168 (13.80%) with non-MR-steatosis. The majority of the cases were infected with HBV (93.26%). The age and metabolic profiles were highest in MAFLD and lowest in non-MR-steatosis. The body mass index (BMI) level was also lowest in non-MR-steatosis (20.78 ± 1.54 kg/m2). The ALT and AST levels of the non-MR-steatosis group were not statistically different from those of MAFLD or NAFLD groups (p > 0.05). Histologically, there was no significant difference in the degrees of inflammation and fibrosis among the three groups. The severity of steatosis in non-MR-steatosis group was lower than MAFLD or NAFLD groups (p < 0.05). These results were consistent in both HBV and non-HBV subgroups.Conclusion: MAFLD criteria may overlook some steatotic patients without metabolic risks, who may also have steatohepatitis and significant fibrosis.Keywords: metabolic associated fatty liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, metabolic risks, lean NAFLD, biopsy

Jiaofeng Huang,1 Weijie Ou,1 Mingfang Wang,1 Medha Singh,2 Yuxiu Liu,1 Shiying Liu,1 Yinlian Wu,1 Yueyong Zhu,1,3 Rahul Kumar,4,* Su Lin1,* 1Department of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of General Medicine, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore; 3Fujian Key Laboratory of Precison Medicine for Cancer, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Duke-NUS Academic Medical Centre, Changi General Hospital, Singapore*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Su LinDepartment of Hepatology, Hepatology Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, No. 20, Chazhong Road, Taijiang District, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350005, People’s Republic of ChinaEmail sumer5129@fjmu.edu.cnBackground and Aims: Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is diagnosed in patients with hepatic steatosis when they have the following three metabolic conditions: obesity/overweight, diabetes and metabolic dysregulation, either alone or in combination. There is no clarity whether subtypes of MAFLD diagnosed by different metabolic conditions carry different levels of risk for intra- and extra-hepatic organs. This study aims to depict the characteristics of these subtypes in a large population.Methods: The data were retrieved from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of the United States. The clinical and biochemical features in different MAFLD subtypes were compared. The outcome of interest was significant and advanced fibrosis.Results: Out of 4,087 (31.24%) participants with MAFLD, 1,165 (28.51%) were diagnosed by single metabolic condition, 2,053 (50.23%) by two conditions, and 869 (21.26%) by all three metabolic conditions. With increasing numbers of metabolic conditions, participants tended to be older, were more likely to be female, and had more severe renal impairment and liver fibrosis (P< 0.05). MAFLD patients with a lower number of metabolic conditions were more likely to have excessive alcohol consumption. Among MAFLD with single metabolic condition, those diagnosed by diabetes alone had the highest proportion of advanced fibrosis identified by non-invasive fibrosis models (P< 0.05).Conclusion: More metabolic conditions upon the diagnosis of MALFD indicate higher risk of fibrosis. Patients with MAFLD diagnosed by diabetes alone are more likely to have advanced hepatic fibrosis than those with other metabolic conditions alone. Individualized management is required for MAFLD with different subtypes.Keywords: metabolic associated fatty liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, metabolic syndromes, NHANES, fibrosis

BACKGROUND Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a novel concept proposed in 2020. AIM To compare the characteristics of MAFLD and MAFLD with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. METHODS Patients with histopathologically proven MAFLD from a single medical center were included. Patients were divided into MAFLD group (without HBV infection) and HBV-MAFLD group (with HBV infection). Propensity score matching was utilized to balance the baseline characteristics between two groups. RESULTS A total of 417 cases with MAFLD were included, 359 (86.1%) of whom were infected with HBV. There were significantly more males in the HBV-MAFLD group than in the MAFLD group (P < 0.05). After propensity score matching, 58 pairs were successfully matched with no significant differences found in gender, age, body mass index, lipid levels, liver enzymes, and the other metabolic associated comorbidities between the two groups (P > 0.05). The rank sum test results showed that the degree of liver steatosis in the MAFLD group was more severe than that in the HBV-MAFLD group, while the degree of inflammation and fibrosis in the liver was less severe (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, HBV infection was associated with significantly lower grade of hepatic steatosis [odds ratio (OR) = 0.088, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.027-0.291] but higher inflammation level (OR = 4.059, 95%CI: 1.403-11.742) and fibrosis level (OR = 3.016, 95%CI: 1.087-8.370) after adjusting for age, gender, and other metabolic parameters. CONCLUSION HBV infection is associated with similar metabolic risks, lower steatosis grade, higher inflammation, and fibrosis grade in MAFLD patients.

Background and aims Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a novel concept proposed in 2020, the utility of which has not been tested and validated in real world. We aimed to compare the characteristics of MAFLD and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods The data was retrieved from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of the United States, which is an unbiased survey dataset and frequently used for the study of fatty liver disease. Results A total of 13 083 cases with completed ultrasonography and laboratory data were identified from the NHANES III database. MAFLD was diagnosed in 4087/13 083 (31.24%) participants, while NAFLD in 4347/13 083 (33.23%) amongst the overall population and 4347/12 045 (36.09%) in patients without alcohol intake and other liver diseases. Compared with NAFLD, MAFLD patients were significantly older, had higher BMI level, higher proportions of metabolic comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension) and higher HOMA-IR, lipid and liver enzymes. MAFLD patients with alcohol consumption were younger than those without, and more likely to be male. They had less metabolic disorder but higher liver enzymes. There were more cases with advance fibrosis in MAFLD patients with alcohol consumption. Conclusion MAFLD definition is more practical for identifying patients with fatty liver disease with high risk of disease progression.

Highlights • COVID-19 is a new respiratory and systemic disease which needs quick identification of potential critical patients. • There is a significant reduction of lymphocyte count in severe COVID-19 group compared to non-severe group. • Lymphopenia has a 3-fold higher risk of developing severe COVID-19. • Lymphopenia is a prominent feature of COVID-19 and lymphocyte counts may be a useful, easily available biomarker in predicting the severity and clinical outcomes., Objectives Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new respiratory and systemic disease which needs quick identification of potential critical patients. This meta-analysis aimed to explore the relationship between lymphocyte count and the severity of COVID-19. Methods Comprehensive systematic literature search was carried out to find studies published from December 2019 to 22 March 2020 from five Databases. The language of literatures included English and Chinese. Mean difference (MD) of lymphocyte count in COVID-19 patients with or without severe disease and odds ratio (OR) of lymphopenia for severe form of COVID-19 was evaluated with this meta-analysis. Results Overall 13 case-series with a total of 2282 cases were included in the study. The pooled analysis showed that lymphocyte count was significantly lower in severe COVID-19 patients (MD -0.31 × 109/L; 95%CI: -0.42 to -0.19 × 109/L). The presence of lymphopenia was associated with nearly threefold increased risk of severe COVID-19 (Random effects model, OR = 2.99, 95% CI: 1.31-6.82). Conclusions Lymphopenia is a prominent part of severe COVID-19 and a lymphocyte count of less than 1.5 × 109/L may be useful in predicting the severity clinical outcomes.

Background and Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect(s) of meteorological factors on the prevalence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) based on 10-years’ worth of population data. Methods: We retrospectively collected ACLF case data from January 2007 to December 2016 from three major hospitals in Fuzhou City, China. Climatic data, including rainfall, mean temperature, differences in temperature (delta temperature) and mean humidity for each month were downloaded from the China Climatic Data Service Center. Following data collection, Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the effect(s) of climatic factors on the risk of the prevalence of ACLF. Results: The population consisted of a total of 3510 cases, with a mean age of 44.7 ± 14.8 years-old and with 79.8% being male. Upon analyzing the population data, we found a growing trend and seasonal pattern of monthly counts of ACLF-related hospitalization throughout the past decade. Specifically, the primary peak of ACLF prevalence was in January and the secondary peak was in July. Poisson regression showed mean temperature (risk ratio = 0.991, 95%CI = 0.986–0.996) and mean humidity (risk ratio = 1.011, 95%CI = 1.006–1.017) to be independently correlated with the monthly cases of ACLF. The results suggest that every unit increase of mean temperature (1°C) and mean humidity (1%) are associated with 0.991- and 1.011-fold changes of ACLF cases, respectively. Rainfall and delta temperature did not appear to affect the prevalence of this disease. Conclusions: The hospitalization for ACLF peaks in January and July. Low temperature and high humidity appear to function as factors contributing to this seasonal pattern.

Background: Chronic Hepatitis B virus infection (CHB) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are both independent risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Current literature suggests the concomitance of CHB and NAFLD do not increase the risk of HCC. The risk of HCC in patients with concomitant CHB and metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is unclear. Methods: CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy from 2005 to 2015 were retrospectively recruited and followed up till March 2020. Cox hazard ratio analysis was used to investigate the risk of HCC.Results: A total of 529 patients were included. MAFLD was diagnosed in 184 (34.78%) and NAFLD in 250 (47.26%) patients. The median follow-up duration was 6.33 years. In the entire cohort, 9 (1.7%) patients developed HCC. The prevalence of MAFLD was significantly higher in HCC group than non-HCC group (77.8% vs. 34.04%, p=0.010), while of the prevalence of NAFLD was not statistically significant (46.73% vs. 77.78%, p=0.092). The presence of MAFLD (HR=6.434; 95%CI: 1.252-33.060) was an independent risk factor for HCC in CHB patients while NAFLD was not. Significantly higher rate of HCC was found in patients with metabolic conditions than those without (2.83% vs. 0.41%, P=0.043), but not in the comparison between steatosis and non-steatosis (2.77% vs. 0.72%, P=0.094). Conclusion: Presence of MAFLD is independently associated with the risk of HCC development in patients with CHB. Between MAFLD and NAFLD, MAFLD will serve these patients better for risk stratification as far as development of HCC is concerned.

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a newly proposed terminology from 2020; yet, the applicability of conventional noninvasive fibrosis models is still unknown for it. We aimed to evaluate the performance of conventional noninvasive fibrosis scores in MAFLD.The NHANES 2017-2018 datasets were used to compare the performances of different noninvasive fibrosis scores in MAFLD, including the aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), body mass index (BMI)-AST/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio and diabetes score (BARD), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Moreover, Asian patients with biopsy-proven MAFLD were enrolled to further validate the findings.A total of 2,622 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort and 293 patients with MAFLD in the Asian cohort were included. Patients in the Asian cohort had a lower BMI and higher liver enzymes (NFS is better for predicting advanced fibrosis in MAFLD. FIB-4 can be an alternative choice for MAFLD with high liver enzymes when NFS is unavailable. Novel efficient noninvasive fibrosis scoring systems are highly required for patients with MAFLD.

BACKGROUND Non-invasive fibrosis scores are not yet validated in the newly defined metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). AIM To evaluate the diagnostic performance of four non-invasive scores including aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, diabetes score (BARD), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with MAFLD. METHODS Consecutive patients with histologically confirmed MAFLD were included. The discrimination ability of different non-invasive scores was compared. RESULTS A total of 417 patients were included; 156 (37.4%) of them had advanced fibrosis (Metavir ≥ F3). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of FIB-4, NFS, APRI, and BARD for predicting advanced fibrosis was 0.736, 0.724, 0.671, and 0.609, respectively. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of FIB-4 and NFS was similar (P = 0.523), while the difference between FIB-4 and APRI (P = 0.001) and FIB-4 and BARD (P < 0.001) was statistically significant. The best thresholds of FIB-4, NFS, APRI, and BARD for diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in MAFLD were 1.05, -2.1, 0.42, and 2. A subgroup analysis showed that FIB-4, APRI, and NFS performed worse in the pure MAFLD group than in the hepatitis B virus-MAFLD group. CONCLUSION APRI and BARD scores do not perform well in MAFLD. The FIB-4 and NFS could be more useful, but a new threshold is needed. Novel non-invasive scoring systems for fibrosis are required for MAFLD.

Background：Non-invasive fibrosis scores are not yet validated in the newly defined metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). This study evaluated the diagnostic performance of four non-invasive scores including AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), BMI, AST/ALT ratio, and diabetes score (BARD), and NAFLD fibrosis score(NFS) in patients with MAFLD.Methods: Consecutive patients with histologically-confirmed MAFLD were included. The discrimination ability of different non-invasive scores was compared.Results: A total of 417 patients were included, 156 (37.4%) of them had advanced fibrosis (METAVIR ≥F3). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FIB-4, NFS, APRI and BARD for predicting advanced fibrosis were 0.736, 0.724, 0.671 and 0.609 respectively. The AUROC between FIB-4 and NFS were similar (P=0.523), while the difference between FIB-4 and APRI (P=0.001) and FIB-4 and BARD (PConclusions: APRI and BARD score do not perform well in MAFLD. The FIB-4 and NFS could be more useful but new threshold is needed. Novel non-invasive scoring system for fibrosis is required for MAFLD.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic since March 2020. We describe here 2 cases of COVID-19 infection in a posttransplant setting. First one is a 59-year-old renal transplant recipient; the second is a 51-year-old allogeneic bone marrow transplant recipient. Both patients were on immunosuppressant therapy and had stable graft function before COVID-19 infection. After the diagnosis of COVID-19, immunosuppressive agents were discontinued and methylprednisolone with prophylactic antibiotics were initiated, however, the lung injury progressed. The T cells were extremely low in both patients after infection. Both patients died despite the maximal mechanical ventilatory support. Therefore, the prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia following transplantation is not optimistic and remains guarded. Lower T cell count may be a surrogate for poor outcome.

Summary Aims Coexistence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is common in clinical practice. This study was to explore the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with NAFLD and/or HBV. Methods Participants who received health examination in a physical examination center were included in this cross-sectional study. Binary logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for CKD. Results A total of 32,578 cases were included in the final analysis, with 52.3% males and an average age of 44.01 ± 13.09 years old. The positive rate of HBV surface antigen was 14.5% and NAFLD was diagnosed in 30.2% cases. The coexistence of NAFLD and HBV-infection was found in 1,275 (3.9%) cases. In overall population, 713 (2.2%) cases were diagnosed with CKD. The CKD prevalence were 1.4%, 2.1%, 3.5% and 5.0% in those without NAFLD or HBV, HBV-infection alone, NAFLD alone and those with concomitant HBV-infection and NAFLD, respectively. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, diabetes and hypertension, the correlation between CKD and liver disease was still significant in HBV group (OR = 1.388, 95%CI: 1.055–1.809), yet no longer existed in patients with NAFLD (OR = 1.183, 95%CI: 0.986–1.420). The concomitant of NAFLD and HBV infection was associated with a higher odds ratio for CKD compared to any other group (OR = 1.961, 95%CI = 1.454–2.645). Conclusions The coexistence of NAFLD and HBV increases the risk of CKD by 2-fold. The control of multiple liver diseases will be beneficial not only to liver but also to kidney.

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of peginterferon α-2a (pegIFN) and nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) treatments in patients with hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) with mild acute exacerbation (AE). Methods: Treatment-naive HBeAg-positive CHB patients with AE who received pegIFN or NA (entecavir (ETV) or telbivudine (LDT)) therapies were retrospectively selected. The HBeAg seroconversion rate, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss rate and the cost-effectiveness of different treatments were compared. Results: A total of 63 patients with pegIFN therapy and 78 with NA (38 with ETV and 40 with LDT) therapy were included. The HBsAg loss rate was significantly higher in the pegIFN group when compared with the NA group (on week 96: 9/63 (14.29%) vs. 1/78 (1.28%), P = 0.005). No significant difference in hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA negativity or the HBeAg/HBsAg seroconversion rate was found between ETV and LDT group. One year of pegIFN therapy resulted in 18.56 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient, and the incremental cost per additional QALY gained was $3,709. Conclusions: PegIFN therapy is safe in HBeAg-positive CHB patients with mild AE, as it results in a higher HBsAg loss rate and longer QALYs than NA therapy. Gastroenterol Res. 2017;10(1):6-14 doi: https://doi.org/10.14740/gr754w

Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels are used to evaluate and monitor clinical phases of chronic hepatitis B infection but their clinical significance is unclear in the late complications, cirrhosis of the liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aimed to evaluate HBsAg levels across the whole natural history of hepatitis B virus infection, including late complications. This retrospective, cross-sectional study enrolled 838 treatment-naive patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B infection at First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified into six groups: immunotolerance, immunoclearance, low replicative, negative hepatitis e (HBeAg) phases, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Main outcome measures were serum HBsAg, HBeAg, HBV DNA, total bilirubin, albumin, alanine and aspartate aminotransferase, and quantitative correlation of HBsAg with HBV DNA. HBsAg levels declined significantly between clinical phases of infection (all P

Summary Objectives To develop a cirrhosis-predicted model in chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with alanine transarninase (ALT) less than two times the upper limit of normal (ULN). Methods Treatment-naive patients ( n = 278), who had undergone liver biopsies, were randomly divided into two groups – a training group and a validation group. Thirteen bio-clinical parameters were analyzed. A liver cirrhosis-predicting model (PPT model) was constructed using multivariate analysis. The diagnostic value of the model was analyzed by the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) method and compared with other available models. Results A PPT model to predict liver cirrhosis was derived from three independent predictors of liver fibrosis [platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT) and total bile acid (TBA)]. PPT model predicted cirrhosis with an area under the ROC (AUROC) curve of 0.83, a positive predictive value of 86.7% and a negative predictive value of 95.2%. Compared with APRI, FIB-4, age-AST model, AP index and APGA model, PPT model had the highest correlation coefficient ( r = 0.49) and greater predictive performance (AUROC of 0.83). Conclusions The PPT model was accurate in predicting cirrhosis and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in chronic hepatitis B virus carriers with ALT less than two times ULN.

Background The diagnostic accuracy of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in predicting bacterial infection in cirrhotic patients remains unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the potential diagnostic value of IL-6 in cirrhotic patients. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, Embase (via OvidSP), Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and Scopus for studies published from inception to October 2015. Studies were enrolled if they included assessment of the accuracy of IL-6 in the diagnosis of bacterial infection in cirrhotic patients and provided sufficient data to construct a 2 × 2 contingency table. Results Totally, 535 studies were searched in the initial database and finally 6 studies involving 741 patients were included for the final analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.94), 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-0.96) and 52.89 (95% CI, 15.21-183.86), respectively. The pooled positive likelihood ratio was 8.99 (95% CI, 4.13-19.55) and the pooled negative likelihood ratio was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.07-0.43). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.92-0.96). Conclusion This meta-analysis suggests IL-6 has a high diagnostic value for the differentiation of bacterial infection in patients with cirrhosis.