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Sepsis is a global medical issue owing to its unacceptably high mortality rate. Therefore, an effective approach to predicting patient outcomes is critically needed. We aimed to search for a novel 28-day sepsis mortality prediction model based on serial interleukin-6 (IL-6), lactate (LAC), and procalcitonin (PCT) measurements. We enrolled 367 septic patients based on Sepsis-3 (Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock). Serum IL-6, LAC, and PCT levels were measured serially. Results collected within 24 and 48–72 h of admission were marked as D1 and D3 (e.g., IL-6D1/D3), respectively; the IL-6, LAC, and PCT clearance (IL-6c, LACc, PCTc) at D3 were calculated. Data were split into training and validation cohorts (7:3). Logistic regression analyses were used to select variables to develop models and choose the best one according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to test model performance. A nomogram was used to validate the model. There were 314 (85.56%) survivors and 53 (14.44%) non-survivors. Logistic regression analyses showed that IL-6D1, IL-6D3, PCTD1, PCTD3, and LACcD3 could be used to develop the best prediction model. The areas under the curves (AUC) of the training (0.849, 95% CI: 0.787–0.911) and validation cohorts (0.828, 95% CI: 0.727–0.929), calibration plot, and the DCA showed that the model performed well. Thus, the predictive value of the risk nomogram was verified. Combining IL-6D1, IL-6D3, PCTD1, PCTD3, and LACcD3 may create an accurate prediction model for 28-day sepsis mortality. Multiple-center research with a larger quantity of data is necessary to determine its clinical utility.

BACKGROUND Our aim was to determine a useful combination of blood biomarkers that can predict 28-day mortality of sepsis upon arrival at the Emergency Department (ED). MATERIAL AND METHODS Based on Sepsis-3.0, 90 sepsis patients were enrolled and divided into survivor and nonsurvivor groups with day 28 as the study end point. After comparing the demographic data and clinical characteristics of patients, we evaluated the predictive validity of a combination of markers including interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), and lactate at arrival at the ED. Independent risk factors were found by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and the prognostic value of markers was determined by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS There were 67 (74.4%) survivors and 23 (25.6%) nonsurvivors. The levels of IL-6 (survivors vs nonsurvivors: median 205.30 vs 3499.00 pg/mL, P=0.012) and lactate (survivors vs. nonsurvivors: median 2.37 vs 5.77 mmol/L, P=0.003) were significantly lower in survivor group compared with the nonsurvivor group. Markers including IL-6, PCT, lactate, and neutrophil-to-white blood cell ratio (NWR) were independent risk factors in predicting 28-day mortality due to sepsis. The combination of these 4 markers provided the best predictive performance for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis, on arrival at the ED (AUC of 0.823, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.723-0.924), and its accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity were 74.4% (95% CI 64.0-82.8%), 91% (95% CI 80.9-96.3%), and 65% (95% CI 42.8-82.8%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The combination of IL-6, PCT, lactate, and NWR measurements is a potential predictor of 28-day mortality for patients with sepsis, at arrival at the ED. Further research is needed to confirm our findings.

Background The aim of this study was to examine the behavior of circulating inflammatory mediators and to exclude gram-positive from gram-negative bloodstream infections. Results may be helpful in selection of optimal specific antibiotic therapies. Material/methods Mice (25-27 g) were randomized to 3 groups infected with Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) ATCC 25923, Escherichia coli (E. coli) ATCC 25922, or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). The white blood cell count (WBC) and the concentrations of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin (IL)-1α, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α) were detected in blood samples at different time intervals after intravenous tail injection. Results The results showed that compared to the control mice, infected animals exhibited significantly higher levels of all mediators after bacterial infection. Moreover, compared to the mice that received S. aureus, animals with E. coli infection showed significantly greater increases in serum IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-6, MCP-1, and MIP-1α levels. Conclusions These results suggest that the use of the analyzed serum markers at an early stage of bloodstream infection may give useful information for the clinician to distinguish gram-negative from gram-positive infections.