Changwei Cai, Shuzhen Zhu, Mingfang Qin, Xiaoqing Li, Chuanteng Feng, Bin Yu, Shaoqing Dai, Ge Qiu, Yuchen Li, Tingting Ye, Wenling Zhong, Ying Shao, Lan Zhang, Peng Jia, and Shujuan Yang
Summary: Background: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 is known to increase the risks for diabetes and obesity, but its effects on their coexistence, termed diabesity, remain uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the associations of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its chemical constituents with the risks for diabesity, diabetes, and obesity. Methods: This cross-sectional study used the baseline data of a multi-center cohort, consisting of three provincially representative cohorts comprising a total of 134,403 participants from the eastern (Fujian Province), central (Hubei Province), and western (Yunnan Province) regions of China. Obesity and diabetes, and diabesity were identified by a body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2 and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥126 mg/dL. The average concentrations of PM2.5 and five chemical constituents (NO3−, SO42−, NH4+, organic matter, and black carbon) over participants’ residence during the past three years were estimated using machine learning models. Logistic regression models with double robust estimators, Bayesian kernel machine regression, and weighted quantile sum regression were employed to estimate independent and joint effects of PM2.5 chemical constituents on the risks for diabesity, diabetes, and obesity, as well as the differences from the effects on obesity. Stratified analyses were performed to examine effect modification of sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Findings: There were 129,244 participants with a mean age of 54.1 ± 13.8 years included in the study. Each interquartile range increase in PM2.5 concentration (8.53 μg/m3) was associated with an increased risk for diabesity (OR = 1.23 [1.17, 1.30]), diabetes only (OR = 1.16 [1.13, 1.19]), and obesity only (OR = 1.03 [1.00, 1.05]). Long-term exposure to each PM2.5 chemical constituent was associated with an increased risk for diabesity, where organic matter exposure, with maximum weight (48%), was associated with a higher risk for diabesity (OR = 1.21 [1.16, 1.27]). Among those with obesity, black carbon contributed most (68%) to the joint effect of PM2.5 chemical constituents on diabesity (OR = 1.16 [1.11, 1.22]). Physical activity reduced adverse effects of PM2.5 on diabesity. Also, additive rather than multiplicative effects of obesity on the PM2.5-diabetes association were observed. Interpretation: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its chemical constituents was associated with an increased risk for diabesity, stronger than associations for diabetes and obesity alone. The main constituents associated with diabesity and obesity were black carbon and organic matter. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (42271433, 723B2017), National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFC3604702), Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2042023kfyq04, 2042024kf1024), the Science and Technology Major Project of Tibetan Autonomous Region of China (XZ202201ZD0001G), Science and technology project of Tibet Autonomous Region(XZ202303ZY0007G), Key R&D Project of Sichuan Province (2023YFS0251), Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (JCRCYG-2022-003), Jiangxi Provincial 03 Special Foundation and 5G Program (20224ABC03A05), Wuhan University Specific Fund for Major School-level Internationalization Initiatives (WHU-GJZDZX-PT07).