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BACKGROUND: Adjusting nitrogen (N) input based on actual seedling density (ASD) and plant N status is a practical approach for improving the yield stability of direct‐seeded rice. However, the adjustment of topdressing N rates has been empirical in the past. This study aimed to establish a quantitative approach for determining N topdressing rates during tillering (Ntil) and panicle development (NPI) based on ASD and crop N status in direct‐seeded rice. Field experiments were conducted involving 12 treatments, consisting of four Ntil and three seeding rates in 2017, and eight treatments combining seeding rate, Ntil, and NPI in 2020. RESULTS: Linear regression analysis revealed that the tiller number at panicle initiation (TILPI) was predominantly influenced by ASD and Ntil. The determination coefficients (R2) of the regression models ranged from 0.887 to 0.936 across the four‐season experiments. The results indicated that Ntil could be determined accurately using ASD and the target maximum tiller number. Similarly, grain yield was influenced significantly by the N uptake at panicle initiation (NUPPI) and NPI, with R2 of 0.814 and 0.783 in the early and late seasons of 2020, respectively. This suggested that NPI could be calculated based on NUPPI and the target grain yield. CONCLUSION: The findings offer a quantitative method for establishing N topdressing rates for tillering and panicle development, relying on the monitoring of actual seedling density and plant N status in direct‐seeded rice production. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]