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This paper introduces a relocation scheme for tropical cyclone (TC) initialization in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model and demonstrates its application to 70 forecasts of Typhoons Sinlaku (2008), Jangmi (2008), and Linfa (2009) for which Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued typhoon warnings. An efficient and dynamically consistent TC vortex relocation scheme for the WRF terrain-following mass coordinate has been developed to improve the first guess of the TC analysis, and hence improves the tropical cyclone initialization. The vortex relocation scheme separates the first-guess atmospheric flow into a TC circulation and environmental flow, relocates the TC circulation to its observed location, and adds the relocated TC circulation back to the environmental flow to obtain the updated first guess with a correct TC position. Analysis of these typhoon cases indicates that the relocation procedure moves the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon position without generating discontinuities or sharp gradients in the first guess., Published in Monthly Weather Review v138 n8 p3298-3315, Aug 2010. The original document contains color images.

Tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions from the operational regional nonhydrostatic TC forecast system of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are examined for their sensitivities to initial and lateral boundary conditions. Five experiments are designed and discussed, each using a combination of different initial and lateral boundary conditions coming either from the CWB or the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system. Eight typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean with 51 cases in 2004 and 2005 are tested with the five designed experiments for the 3-day forecast. The average track forecasts are the best when both the initial and lateral boundary conditions are from the NCEP global forecast system. This reflects the generally superior performance of the NCEP global forecast system relative to that of the CWB. Using different lateral boundary conditions has a greater impact on the track than using different initial conditions. Diagnostics using piecewise inversion of potential vorticity perturbations are carried out to identify synoptic features surrounding the featured typhoon that impact the track the most in each experiment. For the two cases demonstrated with the largest track improvement using NCEP global fields, the diagnostics indicate that the prediction of the strength and extent of the subtropical high in the western Pacific plays the major role in affecting these storm tracks., Published in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v48 p1913-1927, 2009. Prepared in collaboration with Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan.

Effects of steep island terrain on typhoon motion and structure changes are studied by both observational analyses and numerical simulations. The analyses involve calculation of center position deviations from a second- order polynomial curve fitted to the best tracks, and an empirical orthogonal function analysis to determine the terrain-induced surface structures. The simulations use a limited-area model, with a elliptical-shaped barrier and a 'spun-up vortex' to represent the typhoon, to demonstrate the sensitivity on track and structure relative to vortex intensity, approach direction and translation speed. Both observational and simulation studies show that the orography induces significant track deflections and structure distortions, especially for a weaker and slowly moving typhoon approaching central or southern Taiwan. As the typhoon approaches, the outer edge of the circulation accentuates the blocking effect of the barrier. Asymmetric gyres are induced by a vortex-terrain interaction as the vortex moves closer to the barrier, which accounts for the significant track deflections from a simple barrier effect. The simulations suggest that a center-following algorithm based on the wind field would be more representative than on the pressure field. A track discontinuity occurs when the secondary vortex created from flow deflections around the barrier becomes the primary center downstream.

Effects of steep island terrain on typhoon motion and structure changes are studied by both observational analyses and numerical simulations. The analyses involve calculation of center position deviations from a second- order polynomial curve fitted to the best tracks, and an empirical orthogonal function analysis to determine the terrain-induced surface structures. The simulations use a limited-area model, with a elliptical-shaped barrier and a 'spun-up vortex' to represent the typhoon, to demonstrate the sensitivity on track and structure relative to vortex intensity, approach direction and translation speed. Both observational and simulation studies show that the orography induces significant track deflections and structure distortions, especially for a weaker and slowly moving typhoon approaching central or southern Taiwan. As the typhoon approaches, the outer edge of the circulation accentuates the blocking effect of the barrier. Asymmetric gyres are induced by a vortex-terrain interaction as the vortex moves closer to the barrier, which accounts for the significant track deflections from a simple barrier effect. The simulations suggest that a center-following algorithm based on the wind field would be more representative than on the pressure field. A track discontinuity occurs when the secondary vortex created from flow deflections around the barrier becomes the primary center downstream.