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Previous studies suggest that interannual variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over India peaks in June, a monthlater than its climatology, which is due to the significant year-to-year variability of abrupt summer monsoon onset. How- ever, April is the hottest month over Indochina Peninsula (ICP), and SAT variability is much larger in April than summermonsoon season which starts in mid-May. The first EOF mode of daily-mean SAT evolu- tion over ICP from 1 April to 20 May on the interannual timescale captures 49.6% of total variance, and tends to occurduring post-ENSO spring with significant intraseasonal modulations. During post-El Niño April-May, persistent positiveSAT anomalies over ICP are associated with anomalous north Indian Ocean warming and tropical Indo-northwestern(TNW) Pacific cooling, which induce a low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) over the TNW Pacific region through coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The easterly wind anomalies on the southern flank of the AAC induceanomalous warming over ICP by delaying the onset of local monsoonal rainfall. On the intraseasonal timescale, the onset process of ICP summer monsoon is modulated by both 10-20-day and 30-80-day oscillations. At the positive phase ofEOF1, the dry spells of both 30-80-day (phase 3 & 4) and 10-20-day (phase 1) are much stronger than the climatology, with consistent easterly wind anomalies over ICP as part of the TNW Pacific AAC, contributing to 9 days late of ICPsummer monsoon onset. These results provide important implications for the prediction of both SAT and summer monsoon onset over ICP., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)

The reproducibility of climatology and the midwinter suppression of cold season North Pacific storm track (NPST) in historical runs of 18 CMIP6 models is evaluated against the NCEP reanalysis data. The results show that the position of the climatological peak area of 850 hPa meridional eddy heat flux (v′t′850) is well captured by these models. The spatial patterns of climatological v′t′850 are basically consistent with the NCEP reanalysis. Generally, NorESM2-LM and CESM2-WACCM present a relatively strong capability to reproduce the climatological amplitude of v′t′850 with lower RMSE than the other models. Compared with CMIP5 models, the inter-model spread of v′t′850 climatology among the CMIP6 models is smaller, and their multi-model ensemble is closer to the NCEP reanalysis. The geographical distribution in more than half of the selected models is further south and east. For the subseasonal variability of v′t′850, nearly half of the models exhibit a double-peak structure. In contrast, the apparent midwinter suppression in the NPST represented by the 250 hPa filtered meridional wind variance (v′v′250) is reproduced by all the selected models.In addition, the present study investigates the possible reasons for simulation biases regarding climatological NPST amplitude. It is found that a higher model horizontal resolution significantly intensifies the climatological v′v′250. There is a significant in-phase relationship between climatological v′t′250 and the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the climatological v′t′850 is not sensitive to the model grid spacing. Additionally, the climatological low-tropospheric atmospheric baroclinicity is uncorrelated with climatological v′v′250. The stronger climatological baroclinic energy conversion is associated with the stronger climatological v′t′850.

The variation in the concentrations of ambient PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm ) generally forms a continuous sawtooth cycle with a recurring smooth increase followed by a sharp decrease. The episode of abrupt decay of pollution is mostly meteorological in origin and is controlled by the passage of synoptic systems. One affordable and effective measure for quickly reducing PM2.5 concentrations in northern China is to wait for a strong wind to arrive. However, it is still unclear how strong the wind needs to be and exactly what kind of synoptic system most effectively results in the rapid decay of air pollution episodes. PM2.5 variations over the 28 pollution channel cities of the Beijing region are investigated to determine the mechanisms by which synoptic patterns affect the decay processes of pollution episodes. This work shows more obvious day-to-day variations in PM2.5 concentration in winter than in summer, which implies that wintertime PM2.5 variations are more sensitive to meteorological factors. There were 365 decay processes from January 2014 to March 2020, and 97 of them were related to the effective wet deposition. In total, 26 % – 43 % of PM2.5 pollutant is removed by the wet deposition in different seasons. Two dominant circulation patterns are identified in summer. All the other three seasons have three circulation types (CTs), respectively. The three CTs in spring show the same patterns as those in autumn and winter. The circulation patterns beneficial to the decay processes all exhibit a higher-than-normal surface wind speed, a negative relative humidity anomaly and net outflow of PM2.5 from the domain. In addition, CT1 in spring, autumn and winter is controlled by northeasterly wind and features the most significant horizontal net outflow of air pollutants and effective upward spread of air pollutants to the free atmosphere. CT2 is the most frequent CT in autumn and winter, with the highest wind speed from the northwest, highest boundary layer height (BLH) and lowest relative humidity among the three CTs, all of which are favorable for the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. In CT3, strong vertical wind shear within the boundary layer enhances the mixing of surface air pollutants, which is the extra cleaning mechanism besides dry and clean air mass inflow. PM2.5 concentrations show significant decreases of more than 37 %, 41 % and 27 % after the passage of CT1, CT2 and CT3, respectively. A dry airflow with a positive BLH anomaly and the effective horizontal outflow of air pollutants are the main reasons for the abrupt decay phase in summer. PM2.5 concentrations after the decay process show a significant decreasing trend from 2014 to 2020, reflecting successful emission mitigation. Emission reductions have led to a 4.3–5.7 µ g m - 3 yr - 1 decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in the 28 pollution channel cities of the Beijing region.

Based on the daily NCEP reanalysis, the present study investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between the winter North Pacific storm track (WNPST) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and evaluates the WNPST-EAWM relationship in 17 CMIP6 models. The results show that the out-of-phase WNPST-EAWM relationship underwent an interdecadal change in the mid-1980s. The WNPST-EAWM relationship became less significant during P2 (1990-2015). The atmospheric circulation anomaly related to the EAWM during P1 (1955-1980) is more robust than that during P2. The interdecadal weakening WNPST-EAWM relationship may be attributed to the interdecadal damping WNPST-EAWM interaction. The EAWM-related anomalous baroclinic energy conversion and moisture effect, including meridional and vertical eddy moisture fluxes, contribute to the significant attenuation of the WNPST during P1. The transient eddy-induced dynamic forcing and thermal forcing anomalies, as well as the barotropic process represented by the local Eliassen-Palm flux divergence associated with WNPST, can also significantly manipulate the upper-tropospheric jet during P1. However, the atmospheric circulation and interaction between the WNPST and EAWM during P2 are not as significant as those during P1. The effect of ENSO on the WNPST is significantly different before and after the mid-1980s. After the mid-1980s, the WNPST shows the characteristic of moving equatorward during El Niño events. It seems that ENSO takes over the WNPST from the EAWM after the mid-1980s. In addition, except for BCC-ESM1, CanESM5 and SAM0-UNICON, most of the CMIP6 models cannot reproduce the significant out-of-phase WNPST-EAWM relationship.

An interdecadal change of the North Pacific teleconnection pattern in the upper troposphere in boreal spring was noted around the late 1990s. During the period of 1979–1998, a meridional dipole pattern with alternative cyclone and anticyclone to the south and the north of 45° N over North Pacific, was identified as the leading mode by applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique onto the 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly after removing its zonal average. This pattern is similar to the upper-tropospheric structure of North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)/western Pacific (WP) pattern. During the period of 1999–2018, the meridional dipole is replaced by a northeast–southwest orientated teleconnection with centers of activity over the subtropical central Pacific and northeastern North Pacific, resembling a Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection. That is, the upper-level atmospheric teleconnection shifted from a NPO/WP-like pattern to a PNA-like pattern in 1998/1999. For the plausible causes of this interdecadal change, the effect of synoptic high-frequency (HF, 2–8 day) eddy and tropical convection over the central Pacific are emphasized. Before 1998/1999, the NPO/WP-like teleconnection could be ascribed to the vorticity forcing of the HF transient eddy activity over North Pacific between 40° and 60° N, with the role of tropical heating ignorable. After 1998/1999, the spatial distribution of HF transient eddy activity shifted significantly from a north–south pattern to a northeast–southwest pattern, sustaining a PNA-like teleconnection through the transportation of the eddy vorticity fluxes, while the vorticity forcing of the subseasonal low-frequency (LF, 10–90 day) transient eddy activity plays a role in the maintenance of the teleconnection lobe over the subtropical central Pacific. In addition, the tropical convection anomaly centers shifted towards the equatorial central Pacific and Maritime Continent, which can induce a poleward-propagating Rossby wave train, and amplify the PNA-like teleconnection pattern.

Based on the daily ERA-Interim reanalysis, interactions between the winter North Pacific storm track (WNPST) and the East Asian trough (EAT) on the interannual scale are further explored from the perspective of energy conversion and the simplified quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation. There is a prominent out-of-phase relationship between the EAT and WNPST on the interannual scale. It is baroclinic energy conversion rather than barotropic energy conversion that is the main physical process that the EAT affects the WNPST. When the EAT is intensified, the energy conversion from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy decreases; further, the energy conversion from eddy available potential energy to eddy kinetic energy is attenuated, which leads directly to remarkable weakening in the strength of the WNPST in its peak area and the region west of the date line. In addition, when the WNPST is enhanced, the WNPST dynamic forcing contributes to lowering the geopotential height near the EAT and thus profits to recover the strength of the EAT, while the thermal forcing of WNPST is opposite. However, their joint effect is still to strengthen the EAT, indicating that the impact of WNPST dynamic forcing on the EAT is stronger than that of thermal forcing. The interaction between the WNPST and EAT may be a way for the WNPST to maintain itself.

The variation in the concentrations of ambient PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) generally forms a continuous sawtooth cycle with a recurring smooth increase followed by a sharp decrease. The abrupt decay of pollution episode is mostly meteorological in origin, and is controlled by the passage of synoptic systems. One affordable and effective measure for the quickly reducing PM2.5 concentrations in northern China is to wait for strong wind to arrive. However, it is still unclear how strong the wind needs to be and exactly what kind of synoptic system most effectively results in the rapid decay of air pollution episodes. PM2.5 variations over the 28 pollution channel cities of Beijing are investigated to determine the mechanisms by which synoptic patterns affect the decay processes of pollution episodes. This work shows more obvious day-to-day variations in PM2.5 concentration in winter than in summer, which implies that wintertime PM2.5 variations are more sensitive to meteorological factors. There were 365 decay processes from January 2014 to March 2020, and 97 of them were related to the effective wet deposition. 26 %~43 % of PM2.5 pollutant is removed by the wet deposition in different seasons. Two dominant circulation patterns are identified in summer, and the same three circulation types (CTs) are identified in the other three seasons based on the dry-day cases. The circulation patterns beneficial to the decay processes all exhibit a higher than normal surface wind speed, a negative relative humidity anomaly and positive divergence in the PM2.5 horizontal flux. In addition, CT1 in spring, autumn and winter is controlled by northeasterly wind and features the most significant horizontal net-outflow of air pollutants and effective upward spread of air pollutants to the free atmosphere, which promotes the abrupt reduction of local PM2.5 concentrations. CT2 is the most frequent synoptic pattern leading to decay processes in autumn and winter, and the domain region is located to the east of an anticyclone system. CT2 features a strong northwesterly wind of 2.98~3.88 m/s, the lowest relative humidity and the highest boundary layer height (BLH) among the three CTs, all of which are favorable for the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. In CT3, a prevailing westerly wind anomaly occurs in the domain, with remarkable zonal divergence in the PM2.5 flux and strong horizontal wind shear in the near-surface under the boundary layer. PM2.5 concentrations show significant decreases of more than 37 %, 41 % and 27 % after the passage of CT1, CT2 and CT3, respectively. A dry air mass with a positive BLH anomaly and the effective horizontal outflow of air pollutants are the main reasons for the abrupt decay phase in summer. PM2.5 concentrations after the decay process show a significant decreasing trend from 2014 to 2020, reflecting successful emission mitigation. Emission reductions have led to a 4.3~5.7 μg/(m3.yr) decrease in PM2.5 concentrations in the 28 pollution channel cities of Beijing.

The traditional method for computing the mean displacement in latitude–longitude coordinates is a spherical meridional–zonal resultant displacement method (MRDM), which regards the displacement as the resultant vector of the meridional and zonal displacement components. However, there are inhomogeneity and singularity in the computation error of the MRDM, especially at high latitudes. Using the NCEP/NCAR long-term monthly mean wind and idealized wind fields, the inhomogeneity in the MRDM was accessed by using a great circle displacement computing method (GCDM) for non-iterative cases. The MRDM and GCDM were also compared for iteration cases by taking the trajectories from a three-time level reference method as the real trajectories. In the horizontal direction, the GCDM assumes that an air particle moves along its locating great circle and that the magnitude of the displacement equals the arc length of the great circle. The inhomogeneity of the MRDM is evaluated in terms of the horizontal distance error from the products of wind speed, lapse time, and angle difference from the GCDM displacement orient. The non-iterative results show that the mean horizontal displacement computed through the MRDM has both computational and analytical errors. The displacement error of the MRDM depends on the wind speed, wind direction, and the departure latitude of the air particle. It increases with the wind speed and the departure latitude. The displacement magnitude error has a four-wave pattern and the displacement direction error has a two-wave feature in the definition range of the wind direction. The iterative result shows that the displacement magnitude error and angle error of the MRDM and GCDM with respect to the reference method increase with the lapse time and have similar distribution patterns. The mean magnitude error and the angle error of the MRDM are nearly twice as large as those of the GCDM.

Using observational data and numerical experiments, the decadal relationship between South Pacific and rainfall over southeastern China during boreal autumn is examined. In the observational analyses, it is found that the boreal autumn South Pacific shows significant decadal variability with a significant periodicity of 11-21years from 1960 to 2000, which is an independent phenomenon in the whole Pacific. This South Pacific decadal variability can induce significant decadal variability of boreal autumn rainfall over southeastern China. When the boreal autumn South Pacific decadal variability is in its positive phase, less rainfall appears over the southeastern China, and vice versa. The possible physical mechanisms are further investigated. It is suggested that the negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the extratropical South Pacific associated with positive phase of South Pacific decadal variability could result in an anomalous anticyclone to the east of Australia. The cross-equatorial flow over the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific is enhanced under the influence of this anomalous anticyclone, favouring the location of western Pacific subtropical high moving more eastwards and then leading to the formation of anomalous cyclone over western North Pacific. To the west flank of this anomalous cyclone is the significantly anomalous northerly, which is favourable for less rainfall over southeastern China. On the other hand, significant negative SSTA appears in the Maritime Continent and tropical western Pacific could cause anomalous sinking motion here, which can further induce anomalous sinking motion over southeastern China through two meridional cells extending from Maritime Continent to southeastern China with a common rising branch over the southern South China Sea, thus resulting in less rainfall over southeastern China. Numerical experiments confirm our observational results.

The characteristics of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), especially over the equatorial western Pacific, during the boreal winter (November to March) have got a further investigation based on the reanalysis data. The MJO activity prevails over the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific and its main active centres are in the Southern Hemisphere. The MJO also has the highest percentage in the atmospheric variability and strong interannual variability here. The MJO over the equatorial western Pacific shows a prominent interannual variability with a period of 2–8 years and an interdecadal variability with a period of 12–16 years. These variabilities of MJO are closely related to the intensity and duration of strong discrete MJO events over there. During the equatorial western Pacific MJO activity strong winter, the MJO is intensified throughout the tropics and its eastward propagation is more continuous, more coherent, and further east. Anomalous ascending motion and moisture convergence over the equatorial western Pacific could enhance the Walker circulation over the equatorial Pacific and favour the activity of MJO over the equatorial western Pacific. The further eastward propagation of MJO in strong MJO activity winter is mainly due to the strong moistening at the lower troposphere to the east of the MJO convection centre. This moistening is dominated by the vertical advection of moisture. In weak MJO activity winter, the above characteristics are reversed. Furthermore, the MJO activity over the Indian Ocean and Pacific has undergone several interdecadal changes in both of its intensity and propagation during the past 150 years.

The modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the relationship of El Nino with southern China rainfall during early boreal winter (November–December) is investigated in this study. When El Nino occurs in positive phase of PDO, significantly positive rainfall anomalies only appears over the southwestern part of southern China. When El Nino occurs in negative phase of PDO, pronounced positive rainfall anomalies are observed over almost the whole southern China. Further analyses revealed that the anomalous Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) and local meridional circulation play an important role in modulating the relationship of El Nino with southern China rainfall by PDO. During the negative PDO phase, under the combined influence of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole sea surface temperature anomalies pattern, the anomalous PSAC over the western North Pacific and rising motion associated with local meridional circulation over southern China provide sufficient water vapor and dynamical conditions for the formation of rainfall. During positive PDO phase, however, PSAC and local meridional circulation are only influenced by tropical Pacific and they become weak, not favoring the formation of southern China rainfall.

As an important oceanic signal, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) affects not only the climate variability over East China and Northeast China but also can affect climate variability over southwestern China (SWC). Based on station rainfall data and reanalysis datasets, the present study investigates the relationship of North Atlantic SST with SWC rainfall during boreal spring for the period 1979–2016. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between North Atlantic SST and SWC rainfall during boreal spring. The atmospheric circulation over southern Asia associated with North Atlantic SST is favorable for positive rainfall anomalies. Further analyses show that North Atlantic SST can induce a North Atlantic–western Russia–western Tibetan Plateau–SWC (NRTC) teleconnection wave train from upper level to low level. At low level, two anomalous anticyclones are found over the mid-high latitude of North Atlantic and the western Tibetan Plateau, and two anomalous cyclones are observed over the western Russia and Bay of Bengal (BOB), respectively. The NRTC teleconnection wave train plays a bridging role between the North Atlantic SST and SWC rainfall during boreal spring. Both the observational analysis and two numerical experiments suggest that the North Atlantic SST during boreal spring can induce an anomalous cyclone over BOB by the NRTC teleconnection pattern. The anomalous cyclone over BOB favors moisture transport to SWC, accompanying with significant anomalous ascending motion, and thus results in positive rainfall anomalies in SWC during boreal spring.

A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8–9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data. Two moist dynamic parameters, i.e., moist vorticity (mζ) and moist divergence (mδ), are used to diagnose this heavy precipitation event. Results show that the topography over southwestern China has a significant impact on the ability of these two parameters to diagnose precipitation. When the impact of topography is weak (i.e., low altitude), mζ cannot exactly depict the location of precipitation in the initial stage of the event. Then, as the precipitation develops, its ability to depict the location improves significantly. In particular, mζ coincides best with the location of precipitation during the peak stage of the event. Besides, the evolution of the mζ center shows high consistency with the evolution of the precipitation center. For mδ, although some false-alarm regions are apparent, it reflects the location of precipitation almost entirely during the precipitation event. However, the mδ center shows inconsistency with the precipitation center. These results suggest that both mζ and mδ have a significant ability to predict the location of precipitation. Moreover, mζ has a stronger ability than mδ in terms of predicting the variability of the precipitation center. However, when the impact of topography is strong (i.e., high altitude), both of these two moist dynamic parameters are unable to depict the location and center of precipitation during the entire precipitation event, suggesting their weak ability to predict precipitation over complex topography.

This study introduces a new methodology for identifying El Niño and La Niña events. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns for El Niño and La Niña onset, peak, and end phases are classified by self-organizing maps (SOM) analysis. Both onset and end phases for El Niño and La Niña exhibit eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types. The SST anomaly patterns in peak phase can be classified into EP, EP-like, and CP types for El Niño, and EP, mixed (MIX), and CP types for La Niña. The general type of each El Niño or La Niña event is then defined according to the SST type for each of the three phases. There is no robust connection between the general types of the contiguous El Niño and La Niña except that the MIX La Niña rarely induces a subsequent CP El Niño. However, there are strong relationships between the end-phase type of El Niño and the onset-phase type of the subsequent La Niña. The EP-end-type El Niño favors transition to the CP-onset-type La Niña, while the CP-end-type El Niño favors transition to the EP-onset-type La Niña. On the other hand, the CP-end-type La Niña favors transition to EP-onset-type El Niño. Furthermore, an El Niño that occurs after the decay of La Niña favors initiating as an EP-onset type. These relationships are driven by different atmosphere–ocean dynamics, such as coupled air–sea feedback, thermocline feedback, slow SST mode, and Bjerknes feedbacks.

This paper investigates the processes and mechanisms by which the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) affects the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over the equatorial western Pacific in boreal winter (November–April). The results show that both the EAWM and MJO over the equatorial western Pacific have prominent interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they are closely related, especially on the interannual timescales. The EAWM influences MJO via the feedback effect of convective heating, because the strong northerlies of EAWM can enhance the ascending motion and lead the convection to be strengthened over the equatorial western Pacific by reinforcing the convergence in the lower troposphere. Daily composite analysis in the phase 4 of MJO (i.e., strong MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and equatorial western Pacific) shows that the kinetic energy, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), moisture flux, vertical velocity, zonal wind, moist static energy, and atmospheric stability differ greatly between strong and weak EAWM processes over the western Pacific. The strong EAWM causes the intensity of MJO to increase, and the eastward propagation of MJO to become more persistent. MJO activities over the equatorial western Pacific have different modes. Furthermore, these modes have differing relationships with the EAWM, and other factors can also affect the activities of MJO; consequently, the relationship between the MJO and EAWM shows both interannual and interdecadal variabilities.

Long-term variations in a sea surface wind speed (WS) and a significant wave height (SWH) are associated with the global climate change, the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, and an ocean resource exploitation, and other activities. The seasonal characteristics of the long-term trends in China’s seas WS and SWH are determined based on 24 a (1988–2011) cross-calibrated, multi-platform (CCMP) wind data and 24 a hindcast wave data obtained with the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced by CCMP wind data. The results show the following. (1) For the past 24 a, the China’s WS and SWH exhibit a significant increasing trend as a whole, of 3.38 cm/(s·a) in the WS, 1.3 cm/a in the SWH. (2) As a whole, the increasing trend of the China’s seas WS and SWH is strongest in March-April-May (MAM) and December-January-February (DJF), followed by June-July-August (JJA), and smallest in September-October-November (SON). (3) The areal extent of significant increases in the WS was largest in MAM, while the area decreased in JJA and DJF; the smallest area was apparent in SON. In contrast to the WS, almost all of China’s seas exhibited a significant increase in SWH in MAM and DJF; the range was slightly smaller in JJA and SON. The WS and SWH in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, the Tsushima Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the northern South China Sea, the Beibu Gulf, and the Gulf of Thailand exhibited a significant increase in all seasons. (4) The variations in China’s seas SWH and WS depended on the season. The areas with a strong increase usually appeared in DJF.

In this paper, the influence of El Nino event on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the equatorial Pacific is studied by using reanalysis data and relevant numerical simulation results. It is clearly shown that El Nino can reduce the intensity of MJO. The kinetic energy of MJO over the equatorial Pacific is stronger before the occurrence of the El Nino event, but it is reduced rapidly after El Nino event outbreak, and the weakened MJO even can continue to the next summer. The convection over the central-western Pacific is weakened in El Nino winter. The positive anomalous OLR over the central-western Pacific has opposite variation in El Nino winter comparing to the non-ENSO cases. The vertical structure of MJO also affected by El Nino event, so the opposite direction features of the geopotential height and the zonal wind in upper and lower level troposphere for the MJO are not remarkable in the El Nino winter and tend to be barotropic features. El Nino event also has an influence on the eastward propagation of the MJO too. During El Nino winter, the eastward propagation of the MJO is not so regular and unanimous and there exists some eastward propagation, which is faster than that in non-ENSO case. Dynamic analyses suggest that positive SSTA (El Nino case) affects the atmospheric thickness over the equatorial Pacific and then the excited atmospheric wave-CISK mode is weakened, so that the intensity of MJO is reduced; the combining of the barotropic unstable mode in the atmosphere excited by external forcing (SSTA) and the original MJO may be an important reason for the MJO vertical structure tending to be barotropic during the El Nino.

The present study investigates the relationships between the December–February (DJF) South Pacific tripole (SPT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern and the following March–May (MAM) rainfall over eastern China based on multiple datasets. It is found that the relationships between the DJF SPT and the following MAM rainfall over eastern China are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When the ENSO signal is removed, the positive DJF SPT is significantly associated with more rainfall over eastern China during the following boreal spring. However, such significant relationships disappear if ENSO is considered. After removing ENSO impacts, the possible mechanisms through which the DJF SPT impacts the following MAM rainfall over eastern China are investigated. The positive DJF SPT is associated with the significantly positive SSTA in the tropical western Pacific, which can persist to the following MAM. In response to the positive SSTA in the tropical western Pacific, a wave-like train in the low-level troposphere extends from the tropical western Pacific (an anomalous cyclone) to the western North Pacific (an anomalous anticyclone) during the following MAM. The anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific enhances the anomalous southwesterly over eastern China, which can bring more moisture and favor anomalous increased rainfall. It should be pointed out that La Niña (El Niño) could induce an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the western North Pacific, which offsets the MAM anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) caused by the positive (negative) SPT in the preceding DJF and thus weakens the relationship between the SPT and the rainfall over eastern China.

The characteristic changes of South Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for the period January 1979 to December 2011, during which the 1990s Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV) interdecadal regime shifts occurred, were examined. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied to the monthly mean SSTA for two sub-periods: January 1979 to December 1994 (P1) and January 1996 to December 2011 (P2). Both the spatial and temporal features of the leading EOF mode for P1 and P2 showed a remarkable difference. The spatial structure of the leading EOF changed from a tripolar pattern for P1 (EOF-P1) to a dipole-like pattern for P2 (EOF-P2). Besides, EOF-P1 (EOF-P2) had significant spectral peaks at 4.6 yr (2.7 yr). EOF-P2 not only had a closer association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but also showed a faster response to ENSO than EOF-P1 based on their lead-lag relationships with ENSO. During the development of ENSO, the South Pacific SSTA associated with ENSO for both P1 and P2 showed a significant eastward propagation. However, after the peak of ENSO, EOF-P1 showed a stronger persistence than EOF-P2, which still showed eastward propagation. The variability of the SSTA associated with the whole process of ENSO evolution during P1 and the SSTA associated with the development of ENSO during P2 support the existence of ocean-to-atmosphere forcing, but the SSTA associated with the decay of ENSO shows the phenomenon of atmosphere-to-ocean forcing.

The present study examines the relationship between two types of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the central Pacific (CP) ENSO and the eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, and the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the South Pacific (SP) (20° S–60° S, 145° E–70° W) using NOAA OI SST for the period 1982–2006. The SP SST variability associated with the two types of ENSO varies with season. These two types of ENSO can excite different atmospheric patterns associated with the Pacific–South American mode, through which they influence the SP SST variability. Both the surface turbulent air–sea heat fluxes and the heat advection by Ekman currents (i.e., Ekman heat fluxes) have an important impact on the SST variability. An analysis of the surface mixed layer heat budget indicates that the heat fluxes (the sum of turbulent heat fluxes and Ekman heat fluxes) can effectively explain much of the SST variability related to the two types of ENSO.

A season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (S-EOF) analysis was applied to the seasonal mean SST anomalies (SSTAs) based on the HadISST1 dataset with linear trend removed at every grid point in the South Pacific (60.5°-19.5°S, 139.5°E-60.5°W) during the period 1979–2009. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the dominant modes and their relationships with ENSO were analyzed. The results show that there are two seasonally evolving dominant modes of SSTAs in the South Pacific with interannual and interdecadal variations; they account for nearly 40% of the total variance. Although the seasonal evolution of spatial patterns of the first S-EOF mode (S-EOF1) did not show remarkable propagation, it decays with season remarkably. The second S-EOF mode (S-EOF2) showed significant seasonal evolution and intensified with season, with distinct characteristics of eastward propagation of the negative SSTAs in southern New Zealand and positive SSTAs southeast of Australia. Both of these two modes have significant relationships with ENSO. These two modes correspond to the post-ENSO and ENSO turnabout years, respectively. The SEOF1 mode associated with the decay of the eastern Pacific (EP) and the central Pacific (CP) types of ENSO exhibited a more significant relationship with the EP/CP type of El Nino than that with the EP/CP type of La Nina. The S-EOF2 mode contacted with the EP type of El Nino changing into the EP/CP type of La Nina showed a more significant connection with the EP/CP type of La Nina.

The stratospheric polar vortex breakup (SPVB) is an important phenomenon closely related to the seasonal transition of stratospheric circulation. In this paper, 62-year NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were employed to investigate the distinction between early and late SPVB. The results showed that the anomalous circulation signals extending from the stratosphere to the troposphere were reversed before and after early SPVB, while the stratospheric signals were consistent before and after the onset of late SPVB. Arctic Oscillation (AO) evolution during the life cycle of SPVB also demonstrated that the negative AO signal can propagate downward after early SPVB. Such downward AO signals could be identified in both geopotential height and temperature anomalies. After the AO signal reached the lower troposphere, it influenced the Aleutian Low and Siberian High in the troposphere, leading to a weak winter monsoon and large-scale warming at mid latitudes in Asia. Compared to early SPVB, downward propagation was not evident in late SPVB. The high-latitude tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere was affected by early SPVB, causing it to enter a summer circulation pattern earlier than in late SPVB years.

Based on the simulated ice thickness data from 1949 to 1999, monthly mean temperature data from 160 stations, and monthly mean 1°×1° precipitation data reconstructed from 749 stations in China from 1951 to 2000, the relationship between the Arctic sea ice thickness distribution and the climate of China is analyzed by using the singular value decomposition method. Climate patterns of temperature and precipitation are obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis. The results are as follows. (1) Sea ice in Arctic Ocean has a decreasing trend as a whole, and varies with two major periods of 12–14 and 16–20 yr, respectively. (2) When sea ice is thicker in central Arctic Ocean and Beaufort-Chukchi Seas, thinner in Barents-Kara Seas and Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea, precipitation is less in southern China, Tibetan Plateau, and the north part of northeastern China than normal, and vice versa. (3) When sea ice is thinner in the whole Arctic seas, precipitation is less over the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River and north part of northeastern China, more in Tibetan Plateau and south part of northeastern China than normal, and the reverse is also true. (4) When sea ice is thinner in central Arctic Ocean, East Siberian Sea, Beaufort-Chukchi Seas, and Greenland Sea; and thicker in Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea, air temperature is higher in northeastern China, southern Tibetan Plateau, and Hainan Island than normal. (5) When sea ice is thicker in East Siberian Sea 5 months earlier, thinner in Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea 7–15 months earlier, air temperature is lower over the north of Tibetan Plateau and higher in the north part of northwestern China than normal, and a reverse correlation also exists.

The interdecadal change of the relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode and the summer climate anomaly in China is investigated by using monthly precipitation and temperature records at 210 stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1957–2005. The results indicate that along with the interdecadal shift in the large-scale general circulation around the late 1970s, the relationship between the IOD mode and the summer climate anomaly in some regions of China has significantly changed. Before the late 1970s, a developing IOD event is associated with an enhanced East Asian summer monsoon, which tends to decrease summer precipitation and increase summer temperature in South China; while after the late 1970s, it is associated with a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, which tends to increase (decrease) precipitation and decrease (increase) temperature in the south (north) of the Yangtze River. During the next summer, following a positive IOD event, precipitation is increased in most of China before the late 1970s, while it is decreased (increased) south (north) of the Yangtze River after the late 1970s. There is no significant correlation between the IOD and surface air temperature anomaly in most of China in the next summer before the late 1970s; however, the IOD tends to increase the next summer temperature south of the Yellow River after the late 1970s.

This study examines the North Pacific decadal-to-interdecadal variabilities as simulated by a fast version of the coupled climate model namely FGOALS_g developed at LASG/IAP. The spatio-temporal structures of those variabilities and the evolution of the dominant mode together with its relation to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are analyzed with a 300-yr integration of the coupled model. The results indicate that the model reproduces well many features of the observed North Pacific variability. Similar to that in reality, the simulated modes are characterized by timescales ranging from decades to multidecades. However, the most prominent mode is a bidecadal mode with a principal period roughly 10~20-yr. The evolution of the bidecadal mode exhibits a clockwise rotation of the upper-ocean heat content anomalies in an association with the subtropical gyre. The corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies are associated with the variabilities of Aleutian low, Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection and atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. Both the simulation and the observation show that the North Pacific decadal-to-interdecadal variabilities play an important role in modulating the frequency and strength of interannual ENSO events. However, the simulated SST anomalies are fairly larger than that of observations in Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension (KOE) region and Gulf of Alaska. This may be attributed to the excessive sea-ice coverage error and SST cool biases over high-latitude in the coupled model.

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is applied to the study of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific in winter from 1948 to 2010. The western developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (WSE) and the eastern developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (ESE) are extracted from the first four leading modes of EOF analysis of high-pass filtered geopotential height. The results show the following: (1) The WSE and the ESE both take the form of a wave train propagating eastward. The WSE reach their largest amplitude around the dateline in the North Pacific, while the largest amplitude of ESE occurs in the northeast Pacific. (2) The WSE and ESE are the most important modes of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific, which correspond to the two max value centers of the storm track. (3) In addition to geopotential height, the WSE and the ESE also leave their wave-like footprints in the temperature, meridional wind, and vertical velocity fields, which assume typical baroclinic wave features. (4) The WSE and the ESE have an intrinsic time scale of four days and experience a “midwinter suppression” corresponding to the midwinter suppression of storm tracks.

By using observational data, we studied the relationship of the interannual variation of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) between tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of SSTA showed that the dominant modes in tropical Indian Ocean are the unipole mode with same SSTA sign in basin-scale and the dipole mode with a reversal in sign across the basin, respectively. The dominant mode in tropical Pacific Ocean is the El Nino mode. All unipole, dipole and El Nino modes display noticeable interannual variations. The wavelet squared coherency analyses showed that in the interannual time-scale, the SSTA in NINO3 region (150°W- 90°W, 5°S-5°N) in tropical eastern Pacific is closely related with the unipole and dipole modes in the tropical Indian Ocean. It is found that the El Nino lags the dipole mode and precedes the unipole mode. The El Nino from its developing phase to the decaying phase corresponds to SSTA in the tropical Indian Ocean varying from the dipole mode to the unipole mode. The physical connection of El Nino with dipole and unipole modes is also discussed. It is found that variations of the zonal wind anomalies over both tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans are affected greatly by the convection over the area in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific. The variation of the convection accompanied with the evolution of El Nino alters the zonal winds and hence associated oceanic processes, which are responsible for SSTA in tropical Indian Ocean changing from the dipole to unipole mode.