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Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted version of the Bayesian GPLVMs has been proposed to obtain a tighter variational bound. However, this version of the approach is primarily limited to analyzing simple data structures, as the generation of an effective proposal distribution can become quite challenging in high-dimensional spaces or with complex data sets. In this work, we propose an Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) approach to address these issues. By transforming the posterior into a sequence of intermediate distributions using annealing, we combine the strengths of Sequential Monte Carlo samplers and VI to explore a wider range of posterior distributions and gradually approach the target distribution. We further propose an efficient algorithm by reparameterizing all variables in the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Experimental results on both toy and image datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of tighter variational bounds, higher log-likelihoods, and more robust convergence.

Traditional deep Gaussian processes model the data evolution using a discrete hierarchy, whereas differential Gaussian processes (DIFFGPs) represent the evolution as an infinitely deep Gaussian process. However, prior DIFFGP methods often overlook the uncertainty of kernel hyperparameters and assume them to be fixed and time-invariant, failing to leverage the unique synergy between continuous-time models and approximate inference. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach that treats the kernel hyperparameters as random variables and constructs coupled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to learn their posterior distribution and that of inducing points. By incorporating estimation uncertainty on hyperparameters, our method enhances the model's flexibility and adaptability to complex dynamics. Additionally, our approach provides a time-varying, comprehensive, and realistic posterior approximation through coupling variables using SDE methods. Experimental results demonstrate the advantages of our method over traditional approaches, showcasing its superior performance in terms of flexibility, accuracy, and other metrics. Our work opens up exciting research avenues for advancing Bayesian inference and offers a powerful modeling tool for continuous-time Gaussian processes.

Bayesian Last Layer (BLL) models focus solely on uncertainty in the output layer of neural networks, demonstrating comparable performance to more complex Bayesian models. However, the use of Gaussian priors for last layer weights in Bayesian Last Layer (BLL) models limits their expressive capacity when faced with non-Gaussian, outlier-rich, or high-dimensional datasets. To address this shortfall, we introduce a novel approach that combines diffusion techniques and implicit priors for variational learning of Bayesian last layer weights. This method leverages implicit distributions for modeling weight priors in BLL, coupled with diffusion samplers for approximating true posterior predictions, thereby establishing a comprehensive Bayesian prior and posterior estimation strategy. By delivering an explicit and computationally efficient variational lower bound, our method aims to augment the expressive abilities of BLL models, enhancing model accuracy, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection proficiency. Through detailed exploration and experimental validation, We showcase the method's potential for improving predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification while ensuring computational efficiency.

Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) models offer a powerful nonparametric approach for Bayesian inference, but exact inference is typically intractable, motivating the use of various approximations. However, existing approaches, such as mean-field Gaussian assumptions, limit the expressiveness and efficacy of DGP models, while stochastic approximation can be computationally expensive. To tackle these challenges, we introduce Neural Operator Variational Inference (NOVI) for Deep Gaussian Processes. NOVI uses a neural generator to obtain a sampler and minimizes the Regularized Stein Discrepancy in L2 space between the generated distribution and true posterior. We solve the minimax problem using Monte Carlo estimation and subsampling stochastic optimization techniques. We demonstrate that the bias introduced by our method can be controlled by multiplying the Fisher divergence with a constant, which leads to robust error control and ensures the stability and precision of the algorithm. Our experiments on datasets ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands demonstrate the effectiveness and the faster convergence rate of the proposed method. We achieve a classification accuracy of 93.56 on the CIFAR10 dataset, outperforming SOTA Gaussian process methods. Furthermore, our method guarantees theoretically controlled prediction error for DGP models and demonstrates remarkable performance on various datasets. We are optimistic that NOVI has the potential to enhance the performance of deep Bayesian nonparametric models and could have significant implications for various practical applications

Recently, Gaussian processes have been used to model the vector field of continuous dynamical systems, referred to as GPODEs, which are characterized by a probabilistic ODE equation. Bayesian inference for these models has been extensively studied and applied in tasks such as time series prediction. However, the use of standard GPs with basic kernels like squared exponential kernels has been common in GPODE research, limiting the model's ability to represent complex scenarios. To address this limitation, we introduce normalizing flows to reparameterize the ODE vector field, resulting in a data-driven prior distribution, thereby increasing flexibility and expressive power. We develop a data-driven variational learning algorithm that utilizes analytically tractable probability density functions of normalizing flows, enabling simultaneous learning and inference of unknown continuous dynamics. Additionally, we also apply normalizing flows to the posterior inference of GP ODEs to resolve the issue of strong mean-field assumptions in posterior inference. By applying normalizing flows in both these ways, our model improves accuracy and uncertainty estimates for Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs. We validate the effectiveness of our approach on simulated dynamical systems and real-world human motion data, including time series prediction and missing data recovery tasks. Experimental results show that our proposed method effectively captures model uncertainty while improving accuracy.