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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) has become a pandemic. Social (physical) distancing is a key non-pharmacologic control measure to reduce the transmission rate of SARS-COV-2, but high-level adherence is needed. Using daily travel distance and stay-at-home time derived from large-scale anonymous mobile phone location data provided by Descartes Labs and SafeGraph, we quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates have been followed in the U.S. and its effect on growth of COVID-19 cases. The correlation between the COVID-19 growth rate and travel distance decay rate and dwell time at home change rate was -0.586 (95% CI: -0.742 ~ -0.370) and 0.526 (95% CI: 0.293 ~ 0.700), respectively. Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.04 ~ 6.86 days to 3.66 ~ 30.29 days after social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with mechanistic epidemic prediction models. Social distancing mandates reduce the spread of COVID-19 when they are followed., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Studies of the genetic loci that contribute to variation in gene expression frequently identify loci with broad effect on gene expression: expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) hotspots. We describe a set of exploratory graphical methods as well as a formal likelihood-based test for assessing whether a given hotspot is due to one or multiple polymorphisms. We first look at the pattern of effects of the locus on the expression traits that map to the locus: the direction of the effects, as well as the degree of dominance. A second technique is to focus on the individuals that exhibit no recombination event in the region, apply dimensionality reduction (such as with linear discriminant analysis) and compare the phenotype distribution in the non-recombinants to that in the recombinant individuals: If the recombinant individuals display a different expression pattern than the non-recombinants, this indicates the presence of multiple causal polymorphisms. In the formal likelihood-based test, we compare a two-locus model, with each expression trait affected by one or the other locus, to a single-locus model. We apply our methods to a large mouse intercross with gene expression microarray data on six tissues., Comment: 40 pages, 6 figures, 3 supplemental figures, and a separate PDF file (FileS1.pdf) with an additional 35 pages of figures; made small changes to text on pages 26-31 in response to reviewers' comments; corrected a number of typographical errors and added acknowledgment of an additional grant

In a mouse intercross with more than 500 animals and genome-wide gene expression data on six tissues, we identified a high proportion (18%) of sample mix-ups in the genotype data. Local expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL; genetic loci influencing gene expression) with extremely large effect were used to form a classifier to predict an individual's eQTL genotype based on expression data alone. By considering multiple eQTL and their related transcripts, we identified numerous individuals whose predicted eQTL genotypes (based on their expression data) did not match their observed genotypes, and then went on to identify other individuals whose genotypes did match the predicted eQTL genotypes. The concordance of predictions across six tissues indicated that the problem was due to mix-ups in the genotypes (though we further identified a small number of sample mix-ups in each of the six panels of gene expression microarrays). Consideration of the plate positions of the DNA samples indicated a number of off-by-one and off-by-two errors, likely the result of pipetting errors. Such sample mix-ups can be a problem in any genetic study, but eQTL data allow us to identify, and even correct, such problems. Our methods have been implemented in an R package, R/lineup., Comment: 63 pages, 9 figures, 20 supplemental figures, and 5 supplemental tables. In version 2: added two supplemental figures in response to reviewers' comments, and corrected a problem in Figure S13 (points at the boundary between genotype groups were inadvertently omitted, which gave the false impression of clear separation between the groups). In version 3: fixed a few typos

Causal inference approaches in systems genetics exploit quantitative trait loci (QTL) genotypes to infer causal relationships among phenotypes. The genetic architecture of each phenotype may be complex, and poorly estimated genetic architectures may compromise the inference of causal relationships among phenotypes. Existing methods assume QTLs are known or inferred without regard to the phenotype network structure. In this paper we develop a QTL-driven phenotype network method (QTLnet) to jointly infer a causal phenotype network and associated genetic architecture for sets of correlated phenotypes. Randomization of alleles during meiosis and the unidirectional influence of genotype on phenotype allow the inference of QTLs causal to phenotypes. Causal relationships among phenotypes can be inferred using these QTL nodes, enabling us to distinguish among phenotype networks that would otherwise be distribution equivalent. We jointly model phenotypes and QTLs using homogeneous conditional Gaussian regression models, and we derive a graphical criterion for distribution equivalence. We validate the QTLnet approach in a simulation study. Finally, we illustrate with simulated data and a real example how QTLnet can be used to infer both direct and indirect effects of QTLs and phenotypes that co-map to a genomic region., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS288 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)