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The seasonal cycle (SC) of surface air temperature is a substantial element in climatology. Some basic and important topics in climate change studies are based on accurate and reliable estimation of SCs, such as percentile‐based indices of extremes and probability density function (PDF) changes of daily temperatures. For both of them, most studies characterized SCs using averages of multi‐days windows, which is not smooth and accurate enough representing the extreme thresholds and climatological normal of SCs. It is necessary to construct smooth and reasonable SCs for more accurate estimation of temperature changes on extreme thresholds and PDFs. In this study, we propose a flexible method based on generalized additive models for location scale and shape and penalized b‐spline smoothing technique with respective distributions to construct smooth SCs and SC for extreme temperatures (SCETs). The accuracy of the constructed smooth SCETs is good with the estimation biases of percentiles tending to be zero. The constructed smooth SCET also exhibits good stability over time, such that the magnitude changes of temperatures on each calendar day are close to climatic changes of mean temperature when the concerned period shifts. Based on the constructed smooth SCs, climatic changes by seasons and PDFs between two periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, are examined over China. The increase of thresholds for hot extremes in spring during the recent period is prominent, while the increase of thresholds for daytime cold extremes in summer over a part of central to southern China is also notable. The smooth SCs and SCETs based on our flexible statistical modelling framework can characterize daily extreme temperatures reasonably and accurately, and should be expected to have more applications for a better understanding of climate changes related to distributions and seasonal cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A homogenized daily mean temperature series from 1915 to 2021 at Beijing Observatory (BO) has been developed. A thorough investigation of observation records and historical metadata was carried out to identify specific non‐climatic biases. The inhomogeneities were detected and adjusted with the optimally selected reference stations using a statistical reduction methodology. The results indicated three types of non‐climatic biases in temperature records: the first was the relocation of BO from suburban to urban, which caused positive shifts in temperature records, especially for wintertime; the second arose from different methods for calculating daily mean temperature, which caused different sign biases varying with months; and the last was caused by the transition from manual to automatic measurements with site‐specific biases. The corresponding adjustments due to three type biases ranged from −1.13 to 0.63, −0.29 to 0.23 and −0.13 to 0.00°C, respectively. The new homogenized annual mean temperature series showed a warming trend of 0.199°C/decade during 1915–2021. The trend was more pronounced in winter than in the other three seasons. The warming trend in the new series is greater than those in the previous homogenized series (0.136–0.177°C/decade), primarily due to the more effective adjustment associated with the site relocation, particularly for more urban locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vehicle to vulnerable road user (VRU) crashes occupy a large proportion of traffic crashes in China, and crash injury severity analysis can support traffic managers to understand the implicit rules behind the crashes. Therefore, 554 VRUs-involved crashes are collected from January, 2017, to February, 2021, in a city in northern China, including 322 vehicle-pedestrian crashes and 232 vehicle-bicycle crashes. First, a descriptive statistical analysis is conducted to investigate the characteristics of VRUs-involved crashes. Second, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model is introduced to identify the importance of risk factors (i.e., time of day, day of week, rushing hour, crash position, weather, and crash involvements) of VRUs-involved crashes. The statistical analysis demonstrates that the risk factors are closely related to VRUs-involved crash injury severity. Moreover, the results of XGBoost reveal that time of day has the greatest impact on VRUs-involved crashes, and crash position shows the minimum importance among these risk factors., Author(s): Shubo Wu [1]; Quan Yuan (corresponding author) [2]; Zhongwei Yan [1]; Qing Xu [2] 1. Introduction Crash injury severity analysis plays a crucial role in traffic crash analysis, which [...]

A conventional way to monitor severe convective weather is using the composite reflectivity of radar as an indicator. For oceanic areas without radar deployment, reconstruction from satellite data is useful. However, those reconstruction models built on a land dataset are not directly applicable to the ocean due to different underlying surfaces. In this study, we built reconstruction models based on U-Net (named STR-UNet) for different underlying surfaces (land, coast, offshore, and sea), and evaluated their applicability to the ocean. Our results suggest that the comprehensive use of land, coast, and offshore datasets should be more suitable for reconstruction in the ocean than using the sea dataset. The comprehensive performances (in terms of RMSE, MAE, POD, CSI, FAR, and BIAS) of the Land-Model, Coast-Model, and Offshore-Model in the ocean are superior to those of the Sea-Model, e.g., with RMSE being 5.61, 6.08, 5.06, and 7.73 in the oceanic area (Region B), respectively. We then analyzed the importance of different types of features on different underlying surfaces for reconstruction by using interpretability methods combined with physical meaning. Overall, satellite cloud-related features are most important, followed by satellite water-related features and satellite temperature-related features. For the transition of the model from land to coast, then offshore, the importance of satellite water-related features gradually increases, while the importance of satellite cloud-related features and satellite temperature-related features gradually decreases. It is worth mentioning that in the offshore region, the importance of satellite water-related features slightly exceeds the importance of satellite cloud-related features. Finally, based on the performance of the case, the results show that the STR-UNet reconstruction models we established can accurately reconstruct the shape, location, intensity, and range of the convective center, achieving the goal of detecting severe convective weather where a radar is not present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]