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This study empirically examines the ripple effect of demand shocks on upstream suppliers in global value chains (GVCs). Specifically, we investigate how changes in US imports from China alter China’s imports of intermediate inputs in machinery industries from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. To address the simultaneity bias in this input-output linkage, we use the Trump tariffs in an episode of the US–China trade war as an instrument for US import demand from China. The analysis of China’s monthly imports from the three supplier economies during 2018-2019 finds evidence of negative tariff spillover via GVCs: the decrease in China’s output exports to the US caused by the Trump tariffs reduced China’s input imports from supplier economies. Also, this adverse ripple effect was the most significant in Taiwan, where multinational enterprises use China as an export platform, amplifying the adverse demand shock.

This paper examines trade integration of East Asian countries through the lens of global value chains (GVCs). It first gauges the extent and involvement of trade in value-added (TiVA) for East Asian countries. The analysis confirms that reliance on backward GVC participation outside of the region still looms large in East Asia. This presents the case for creating policies that would enable the creation of greater global links in addition to focusing on deepening intraregional trade linkages remain important. Sectoral comparisons reveal that Regional Value Chains (RVCs) among East-Asian economies have been increasing its role in East Asian's exports of transport equipment sector while decreasing the role in its exports of textile and apparel sector. Such trend seems to suggest RVC opportunities are available to East Asian economies in sectors that require production to locate close to large and growing markets and suppliers' ability to absorb new technology. Moreover, the study finds enabling policy environment is an important factor to strengthen intraregional value chain linkages. For example, non-tariff measures (NTMs), have become an important part of trade-policy measures and have significantly affected trade flows in RVCs. It is found that NTMs are generally associated with reduced trade in value-added flows, except in the case that NTMs may help ensuring quality standards, such as technical NTMs in the food industry.

This paper empirically examines the "defensive innovation" hypothesis that firms with higher exposure to low-wage economy import competition intensively undertake more innovative activity by using a high quality Japanese firm-level panel dataset over the period 1994-2005. The novel feature of the analysis is the relation of firm-level variations of patent usage to import competition. The results suggest that intensified import competition from the People's Republic of China has resulted in greater innovative activity by Japanese firms, consistent with the findings of European firms in Bloom et al. (2016). Moreover, such competition has also led to an increase in non-used patents.

This paper examines the hypothesis that manufacturing industries in Japan that have been exposed to import competition from the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience greater skill upgrading (increased demand for skilled workers). Using an industry panel dataset over the period 1980-2010, we exploit variations of worker skill categories by occupation, paired with detailed information and communication technology investment data in the employment share regression. We find that while the PRC's comparative advantages in exports have shifted from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive products, this has not resulted in substituting skilled workers in Japanese manufacturing. Rather, it has had the profound positive effect of raising overall demand for skilled workers. Most of the competition effects were felt among production workers, leaving middle-skilled workers largely unaffected.

This paper examines various indicators of the economic activities of Japanese and American multinational corporation (MNC) affiliates in India compared to the case of China, using the unique affiliate-level data. The study shows that Japanese MNCs in India follow the typical MNC expansion strategy in that rapidly growing emerging economy with a focus on the transport equipment industry, whereas United States counterparts are concentrated more in information technology-related services, thus strengthening service-led growth of the Indian economy. However, the author remains sceptical of the expectation that India will grow as an export platform similar to China because of the former country's unique FDI experiences and rising domestic market potential.

This paper examines how an appreciation of the currency of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—renminbi—affects the country’s exports in the context of production fragmentation, using a panel data set of the PRC’s trade for 1992/93–2008/09. It constructs two exchange rates for renminbi: one is a bilateral real exchange rate and the other is a real effective exchange rate against East Asian component suppliers. It is found that appreciation of the renminbi would somewhat offset a reduction in the volume of the PRC’s exports induced by lower importing costs of components. Hence, evidence casts further doubts on the efficacy of further unilateral reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime on correcting trade imbalances.

This paper examines the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in facilitating international trade flows connecting production networks. We consider over 250 PTAs with trade flows distinguished into parts and components and final goods for the period 1979-2008. The gravity equation estimates suggest that the concurrent year effects of PTA formation on trade in parts and components are unseen, whereas PTAs have positive and pervasive effects on both types of trade flows 6 and 9 years after the PTA formation.

This paper examines how an appreciation of the currency of the People's Republic of China (PRC) - renminbi - affects the country's exports in the context of production fragmentation, using a panel data set of the PRC's trade for 1992/93-2008/09. It constructs two exchange rates for renminbi: one is a bilateral real exchange rate and the other is a real effective exchange rate against East Asian component suppliers. It is found that appreciation of the renminbi would somewhat offset a reduction in the volume of the PRC's exports induced by lower importing costs of components. Hence, evidence casts further doubts on the efficacy of further unilateral reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime on correcting trade imbalances.

3/06/2008 -- Header, This paper examines the hypothesis that expansion of overseas operations of Japanese manufacturing multinational enterprises (MNEs) reduces home employment. While the existing studies are mainly based on the industry level, this paper presents the evidence using newly constructed firm-level panel data set over the period 1991-2002. In spite of concerns expressed about the adverse effects of FDI on the domestic economy, the evidence does not support the view that overseas operations expand at the cost of home employment in Japan. On the contrary, the findings suggest that overseas operations have somewhat helped to maintaining the level of home employment in Japanese manufacturing during the period under study. However, the results are sensitive to the estimation method used and whether the estimation is based on the panel data set is balanced or unbalanced., 21世紀COEプログラム = 21st-Century COE Program

This paper examines the hypothesis that industries engaged in international fragmentation of production experience greater skill upgrading using a panel dataset of Japanese manufacturing over the period 1980-2000. The novelty of the study comes from the use of an index newly constructed using data on trade in parts and components to measure inter-industry variations in the degree of international vertical specialization (fragmentation intensity of trade). It also employs a methodology designed to embody peculiarities of Japan's fragmentation trade pattern. While the findings of existing studies are inconclusive, we find that the expansion of fragmentation trade with developing East Asian countries has had a significant impact on the skills composition of Japanese manufacturing employment. By contrast, trade with high income countries seems to have had a skill downgrading effect., 21世紀COEプログラム = 21st-Century COE Program