M. ten Have, Victoria Shahly, Arieh Y. Shalev, Brendan Bunting, Norito Kawakami, Alan M. Zaslavsky, Hristo Hinkov, Dan J. Stein, Semyon Gluzman, G. de Girolamo, Maria Carmen Viana, Jordi Alonso, Nancy A. Sampson, Hesheng Liu, Josep Maria Haro, Jose Posada-Villa, B. E. Pennell, Guilherme Borges, Elie G. Karam, M. Petukhova, F. Navarro-Mateu, Yolanda Torres, Sing Lee, Lukoye Atwoli, Ronald C. Kessler, Viviane Kovess-Masfety, Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola, Evelyn J. Bromet, Oye Gureje, Karestan C. Koenen, Kate M. Scott, École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique (METIS), Federal University of Espírito Santo, Harvard Medical School [Boston] (HMS), and Universitat de Barcelona
Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (Contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123, and EAHC 20081308), (the Piedmont Region (Italy)), Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (FIS 00/0028), Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología, Spain (SAF 2000-158-CE), Departament de Salut, Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain, Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBER CB06/02/0046, RETICS RD06/0011 REM-TAP), and other local agencies and by an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline.