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Process-based models are powerful tools for simulating the economic impacts of climate change, but they are computationally expensive. In order to project climate-change impacts under various scenarios, produce probabilistic ensembles, conduct online coupled simulations, or explore pathways by numerical optimization, the computational and implementation cost of economic impact calculations should be reduced. To do so, in this study, we developed various emulators that mimic the behaviours of simulation models, namely economic models coupled with bio/physical-process-based impact models, by statistical regression techniques. Their performance was evaluated for multiple sectors and regions. Among the tested emulators, those composed of artificial neural networks, which can incorporate non-linearities and interactions between variables, performed better particularly when finer input variables were available. Although simple functional forms were effective for approximating general tendencies, complex emulators are necessary if the focus is regional or sectoral heterogeneity. Since the computational cost of the developed emulators is sufficiently small, they could be used to explore future scenarios related to climate-change policies. The findings of this study could also help researchers design their own emulators in different situations.

Future projections on irrigation water under a changing climate are highly dependent on meteorological data derived from general circulation models (GCMs). Since climate projections include biases, bias correction is widely used to adjust meteorological elements, such as the atmospheric temperature and precipitation, but less attention has been paid to biases in humidity. Hence, in many cases, uncorrected humidity data have been directly used to analyze the impact of future climate change. In this study, we examined how the biases remaining in the humidity data of five GCMs propagate into the estimation of irrigation water demand and consumption from rivers using the global hydrological model (GHM) H08. First, to determine the effects of humidity bias across GCMs, we ran H08 with GCM-based meteorological forcing data sets distributed by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). A state-of-the-art bias correction method was applied to the data sets without correcting biases in humidity. Differences in the monthly relative humidity amounted to 11.7 to 20.4 % RH (percentage relative humidity) across the GCMs and propagated into differences in the estimated irrigation water demand, resulting in a range between 1152.6 and 1435.5 km3 yr−1 for 1971–2000. Differences in humidity also propagated into future projections. Second, sensitivity analysis with hypothetical humidity biases of ±5 % RH added homogeneously worldwide revealed the large negative sensitivity of irrigation water abstraction in India and East China, which are heavily irrigated. Third, we performed another set of simulations with bias-corrected humidity data to examine whether bias correction of the humidity can reduce uncertainties in irrigation water across the GCMs. The results showed that bias correction, even with a primitive methodology that only adjusts the monthly climatological relative humidity, helped reduce uncertainties across the GCMs: by using bias-corrected humidity data, the uncertainty ranges of irrigation water demand across the five GCMs were successfully reduced from 282.9 to 167.0 km3 yr−1 for the present period, and from 381.1 to 214.8 km3 yr−1 for the future period (RCP8.5, 2070–2099). Although different GHMs have different sensitivities to atmospheric humidity because different types of potential evapotranspiration formulae are implemented in them, bias correction of the humidity should be applied to forcing data, particularly for the evaluation of evapotranspiration and irrigation water.

A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper, water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and major human activities such as water abstraction and reservoir operation. It simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Abstraction to Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water abstraction from a river divided by the daily consumption-based potential water demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that by 2071–2100 the population living under severely water-stressed conditions for SSP1-5 will reach 2588–2793 × 106 (39–42% of total population), 3966–4298 × 106 (46–50%), 5334–5643 × 106 (52–55%), 3427–3786 × 106 (40–45%), 3164–3379 × 106 (46–49%) respectively, if climate policies are not adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and climate) global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the present-day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic activity in developing countries, and partly due to hydrological changes induced by global warming.

A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment), and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

Heatstroke is a serious health concern in Japan. To reduce heatstroke risk, the government of Japan implemented the "Heatstroke Alert" nationwide in 2021, employing the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as a criterion. Although the WBGT is a useful meteorological indicator for assessing the risk of heatstroke, other important meteorological indicators must also be investigated. Therefore, using a random forest approach, this study analyzed the relative importance of several meteorological indicators, including those representing heat acclimatization, for each of the 47 Japanese prefectures. Using the generalized linear model, important meteorological indicators were employed as explanatory variables in the heatstroke prediction model to determine the predictive meteorological indicator. Heatstroke cases were evaluated separately by the degree of severity and the place of occurrence. The results showed that the relative temperature (RelTemp), which represents heat acclimatization and was calculated considering past temperature history, was the most predictive (i.e., provided the best goodness of fit) concerning the degree of severity, place of occurrence, and prefectures. RelTemp can be a complementary indicator of WBGT in countries and regions such as Japan, where seasonal differences in heat acclimatization must be considered. In addition, the findings of this study contribute to the development of a more accurate assessment of heatstroke risk., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

With higher temperatures expected in the future due to global climate change, addressing health risks such as heat illness is increasingly important. In Japan, thousands of heat illness cases occur annually during school sports club activities. The risk may vary by sport, location, and region, but how heat safety thresholds (HSTs) should be adjusted to provide effective guidelines remains uncertain. Thus, we conducted a case-crossover study using data of heat illness cases and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) throughout Japan to evaluate the heat illness risk for the current HSTs and propose adjustments. A significant relationship was found between heat illness incidence and WBGT at the time of the incident, as well as the average WBGT one and two days prior. The risk significantly varies with factors such as club, region, location, year, month, and the average WBGT in summer. Therefore, we recommend lowering the current HSTs by one category (3 °C) in the following cases: (1) clubs at high risk (baseball, softball, soccer/futsal, tennis, track and field, kyudo, and other with sustained exercise or thick uniforms); (2) from April to June; (3) in cooler regions (Hokkaido, Tohoku, Hokuriku, or where the average WBGT in summer≦18℃); (4) for outdoor activities; (5) when heat rapidly increases without adequate heat acclimatization. These findings may inform educators, students, sports authorities, and policymakers in adjusting HSTs to reduce the incidence of heat illness, thereby ensuring safer environments for school sports activities., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

One of the negative consequences of increased air temperatures due to global warming is the associated increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity. Studies that focused on future predictions of heat-related morbidity do not consider the effect of long-term heat adaptation measures, nor do they use evidence-based methods. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the future heatstroke cases for all 47 prefectures of Japan, by considering long-term heat adaptation by translating current geographical differences in heat adaptation to future temporal heat adaptation. Predictions were conducted for age groups of 7-17, 18-64, and ≥65 years. The prediction period was set to a base period (1981-2000), mid-21st century (2031-2050), and the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). We found that the average heatstroke incidence (number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance per population) in Japan under five representative climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios increased by 2.92- for 7-17 years, 3.66- for 18-64 years, and 3.26-fold for ≥65 years at the end of the 21st century without heat adaptation. The corresponding numbers were 1.57 for 7-17 years, 1.77 for 18-64 years, and 1.69 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. Furthermore, the average number of patients with heatstroke transported by ambulance (NPHTA) under all climate models and GHG emissions scenarios increased by 1.02- for 7-17 years, 1.76- for 18-64 years, and 5.50-fold for ≥65 years at the end of 21st century without heat adaptation, where demographic changes were considered. The corresponding numbers were 0.55 for 7-17 years, 0.82 for 18-64 years, and 2.74 for ≥65 years with heat adaptation. The heatstroke incidence, as well as the NPHTA, substantially decreased when heat adaptation was considered. Our method could be applicable to other regions across the globe., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background : Relatively little attention has been paid to the potential effects of rising temperatures on changes in human behavior that lead to health and social consequences, including aggression. This study investigated the association between ambient temperature and aggression using assault death data from Seoul, South Korea (1991-2020). Methods : We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis based on conditional logistic regression to control for relevant covariates. The exposure-response curve was explored, and stratified analyses were conducted by season and sociodemographic characteristics. Results : The overall risk of assault deaths significantly increased by 1.4% per 1°C increase in ambient temperature. A positive curvilinear relationship was observed between ambient temperature and assault deaths, which flattened out at 23.6°C during the warm season. Furthermore, risk increases were higher in males, teenagers, and those with the least education. Conclusion : This study highlighted the importance of understanding the impact of rising temperatures on aggression in the context of climate change and public health., (Copyright ©2023, Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine.)

Thermal safety guidelines with upper thresholds aim to protect athletes' health, yet evidence-based sport-specific thresholds remain unestablished. Experimenting with athletes in severely hot conditions raises ethical concerns, so we used a thermo-physiological model to validate the thresholds of guidelines for outdoor sports. First, the reproducibility of the joint system thermoregulation model (JOS-3) of core temperature has been validated for 18 sports experiments ( n  = 213) and 11 general exercise experiments ( n  = 121) using the Bland - Altman analysis. Then, core temperatures were predicted using the JOS-3 in conditions corresponding to the upper thresholds, and if the 90 th -99.7 th percentile core temperature value (corresponding to 0.3%-10% of the participants) exceeded 40°C, the thresholds were judged as potentially hazardous. Finally, we proposed revisions for sports with potentially hazardous thresholds. As a result, the JOS-3 could simulate core temperature increases in most experiments (27/29) for six sports and general exercises with an accuracy of 0.5°C. The current upper thresholds for marathons, triathlons, and football are potentially hazardous. Suggested revisions, based on specified percentiles, include: Football: revise from wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 32°C to 29-31°C or not revise. Marathon: revise from WBGT 28°C to 24-27°C. Triathlon: revise from WBGT 32.2°C to 23-26°C. If conducting sports events under the revised upper thresholds proves difficult, taking measures for a possible high incidence of heat illness becomes crucial, such as placing additional medical resources, assisting heat acclimatization and cooling strategies for participants, and rule changes such as shorter match times and increased breaks., Competing Interests: TO is working full-time at the Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., which is associated with research, consulting, and ICT solutions and has potential competing interests. The other authors declared no conflicts of interest., (© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

Background: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk., Objectives: We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973-2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan., Methods: Hot nights were defined as days with a ) minimum temperature ≥ 25 ° C ( HN 25 ) and b ) minimum temperature ≥ 95 th percentile ( HN 95 th ) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April-November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association., Results: Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%-10% [ HN 25 relative risk ( RR ) = 1.09 , 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; HN 95 th RR = 1.10 , 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions., Conclusions: Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444.

Background: Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions., Methods: We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region., Results: Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant., Conclusion: This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This study analyzed the association between heatstroke incidence and daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for all 47 prefectures in Japan by age group and severity using time-series analysis, controlling for confounders, such as seasonality and long-term trends. With the obtained association, the relative risk between the reference WBGT (defined as the value at which heatstroke starts to increase) and the daily maximum WBGT at 30 °C (RR wbgt30 ) of each prefecture were calculated. For the heatstroke data, the daily number of heatstroke patients transported by ambulance at the prefecture level, provided by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, was utilized. The analysis was conducted for age groups of 7-17 y, 18-64 y, and ≥65 y, and for severity of Deceased, Severe, Moderate (combined as DSM), and Mild. The analysis period was set from May 1 to September 30, 2015-2019. Finally, the correlation between RR wbgt30 and the average daily maximum WBGT during the analysis period (aveWBGTms) of each prefecture was analyzed to examine the regionality of heatstroke incidence. The result showed that RR wbgt30 is negatively correlated with aveWBGTms for the age group 18-64 y and ≥65 y (except for the age group 7-17 y) and for severity. The natural logarithm of the RR wbgt30 of all 47 prefectures ranged from 2.0 to 8.2 for the age group 7-17 y, 1.1 to 4.0 for the age group 18-64 y, 1.8 to 6.0 for the age group ≥65 y, and 1.0 to 3.6 for DSM, and 0.9 to 4.0 for Mild. This regionality can be attributed to the effects of heat adaptation, where people in hotter regions are accustomed to implementing measures against hot environments and are more heat acclimatized than people in cooler regions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Environmental factors have been associated with adverse health effects in epidemiological studies. The main exposure variable is usually determined via prior knowledge or statistical methods. It may be challenging when evidence is scarce to support prior knowledge, or to address collinearity issues using statistical methods. This study aimed to investigate the importance level of environmental variables for the under-five mortality in Malaysia via random forest approach., Method: We applied a conditional permutation importance via a random forest (CPI-RF) approach to evaluate the relative importance of the weather- and air pollution-related environmental factors on daily under-five mortality in Malaysia. This study spanned from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. In data preparation, deviation mortality counts were derived through a generalized additive model, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality. Analyses were conducted considering mortality causes (all-cause, natural-cause, or external-cause) and data structures (continuous, categorical, or all types [i.e., include all variables of continuous type and all variables of categorical type]). The main analysis comprised of two stages. In Stage 1, Boruta selection was applied for preliminary screening to remove highly unimportant variables. In Stage 2, the retained variables from Boruta were used in the CPI-RF analysis. The final importance value was obtained as an average value from a 10-fold cross-validation., Result: Some heat-related variables (maximum temperature, heat wave), temperature variability, and haze-related variables (PM10, PM10-derived haze index, PM10- and fire-derived haze index, fire hotspot) were among the prominent variables associated with under-five mortality in Malaysia. The important variables were consistent for all- and natural-cause mortality and sensitivity analyses. However, different most important variables were observed between natural- and external-cause under-five mortality., Conclusion: Heat-related variables, temperature variability, and haze-related variables were consistently prominent for all- and natural-cause under-five mortalities, but not for external-cause., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are affecting the hydrological conditions of rivers and may have altered nutrient and suspended sediments released into coastal seas. However, testing this hypothesis is difficult, confounded by the lack of observational data and the unavailability of globally accepted suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithms. Here, we analyzed the trends in SSC (2000-2020) at the mouths of 10 major Asian rivers using 10 available satellite-SSC algorithms. We identified spatially distinct trends, with SSC decreasing at the mouths of the Yellow, Pearl, and Indus rivers, and increasing trends at the mouths of the Narmada and Ganges-Brahmaputra rivers, while there were no significant trends at the mouths of the remaining rivers. River discharge, dams, and land use changes in basins individually did not suffice, but reproduced the observed SSC trends when used together. Our results imply that anthropogenic activities threaten the marine ecosystem more than climate forcing on Asian coasts., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change has the potential to cause forest range shifts at a broad scale and consequently can alter crucial forest functions, including carbon sequestration. However, global-scale projections of future forest range shifts remain challenging because our knowledge of the physiological responses of plants to climatic stress is limited to particular species and is insufficient for wide-range projections, in addition to the uncertainties in the impacts of non-climatic factors, such as wildfire, wind, and insect outbreaks. To evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of forests to climate change, we developed a new empirical approach using climatic indices reflecting physiological stressors on plants. We calculated the global distributions of seven indices based on primary climatic stressors (drought, solar radiation, and temperature) at high resolution. We then modeled the relationship between the seven indices and global forest extent. We found two key stressors driving climate-induced forest range shifts on a global scale: low temperature under high radiation and drought. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, forest establishment became difficult when the mean temperature was less than approximately 7.2 °C in the highest radiation quarter. Forest sensitivity to drought was more pronounced at mid-latitudes. In areas where the humidity index (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) was below 0.45, shrubland and grassland became more dominant than forests. Our results also suggested that the impacts of climate change on global forest range shifts will be geographically biased depending on the areas affected by the key climatic stressors. Potential forest gain was remarkable in boreal regions due to increasing temperature. Potential forest loss was remarkable in current tropical grassland and temperate forest/grassland ecoregions due to increasing drought. Our approach using stress-reflecting indices could improve our ability to detect the roles of climatic stressors on climate-induced forest range shifts., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 27% worldwide by the late twenty-first century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the Games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the Games., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Water quality monitoring programs have been widely implemented worldwide to monitor and assess water quality and to understand its trends. However, water quality analysis based on point-source field observations is difficult to perform at large spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a fully automated Google Earth Engine (GEE) application algorithm was developed to estimate the total suspended solids (TSS) concentration in the Chesapeake Bay based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra imagery. Combining long-term archived satellite data (2002-2020) with field observations, the concentrations and spatiotemporal patterns of TSS in the bay water were evaluated. Time series analysis showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in TSS concentration between 2002 and 2020, suggesting that the sediment concentration in the bay has gradually been decreasing over the last two decades. The decreasing trend was observed in 49 out of 60 segments of the bay, implying that substantial progress has been made toward attaining the Chesapeake Bay water quality standards. Based on the monthly TSS analysis, 12 major peak events of TSS were identified in the Chesapeake Bay, which coincided with extreme winter blizzards and summer hurricane events. The GEE application and the results presented herein complement the existing monitoring program in attaining the water quality standards of the bay., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity and spatial extent of extreme climate events, and thus is a key concern for food production. However, food insecurity is usually analysed under a mean climate change state. Here we combine crop modelling and climate scenarios to estimate the effects of extreme climate events on future food insecurity. Relative to median-level climate change, we find that an additional 20-36% and 11-33% population may face hunger by 2050 under a once-per-100-yr extreme climate event under high and low emission scenarios, respectively. In some affected regions, such as South Asia, the amount of food required to offset such an effect is triple the region's current food reserves. Better-targeted food reserves and other adaptation measures could help fill the consumption gap in the face of extreme climate variability., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks-especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs' projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway.

This study investigated the effects of a drink supplement containing Momordica charantia extract from bitter melon on physical fitness and levels of stress hormones during a four-week exercise training program in a hot environment. Ten male tennis players were orally administrated in a four-week (100 ml, 6 times a day), and the pre- and post-supplementation levels of different physical fitness variables and cortisol, and adrenocorticotropic hormone in plasma were measured at four time-points-before (baseline), during, and after the exercise, and on the next day of the supplementation. The findings showed that the supplementation has significant positive effects on enhancement of physical fitness parameters especially balance (d = 22.10, p  = 0.013), flexibility (d = 4.83, p  = 0.015), and cardiorespiratory fitness (d = 10.00, p  = 0.030). Moreover, the adrenocorticotropic hormone levels were reduced during the exercise, and the cortisol levels showed the decreasing trend during and after the exercise, which was correlated with the change of cardiorespiratory fitness ( r  = 0.65, p <0.05). These results indicated the possible adaptogenic effects of Momordica charantia extract intake. Based on the findings, we suggest that Momordica charantia could be used as a source of adaptogenic supplement to alleviate the exercise- and environment-induced stress., Competing Interests: No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed., (Copyright © 2020 JCBN.)

Human life comes to a standstill as many countries shut themselves off from the work due to the novel coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19) that hit the world severely in the first quarter of 2020. All types of industries, vehicle movement, and people's activity suddenly halted, perhaps for the first time in modern history. For a long time, it has been stated in various literature that the increased industrialization and anthropogenic activities in the last two decades polluted the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. Since the industries and people's activities have been shut off for a month or more in many parts of the world, it is expected to show some improvement in the prevailing conditions in the aforementioned spheres of environment. Here, with the help of remote sensing images, this work quantitatively demonstrated the improvement in surface water quality in terms of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Vembanad Lake, the longest freshwater lake in India. The SPM estimated based on established turbidity algorithm from Landsat-8 OLI images showed that the SPM concentration during the lockdown period decreased by 15.9% on average (range: -10.3% to 36.4%, up to 8 mg/l decrease) compared with the pre-lockdown period. Time series analysis of satellite image collections (April 2013 - April 2020) showed that the SPM quantified for April 2020 is the lowest for 11 out of 20 zones of the Vembanad lake. When compared with preceding years, the percentage decrease in SPM for April 2020 is up to 34% from the previous minima., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

More than half of the world's population currently live in urban areas and are particularly at risk from the combined effects of the urban heat island phenomenon and heat increases due to climate change. Here, by using remotely sensed surface temperature data and social-ecological indicators, focusing on the hot dry season, and applying the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we assessed the current heat health risk in 139 Philippine cities, which account for about 40% of the country's total population. The cities at high or very high risk are found in Metro Manila, where levels of heat hazard and exposure are high. The most vulnerable cities are, however, found mainly outside the national capital region, where sensitivity is higher and capacity to cope and adapt is lower. Cities with high levels of heat vulnerability and exposure must be prioritized for adaptation. Our results will contribute to risk profiling in the Philippines and to the understanding of city-level heat health risks in developing regions of the Asia-Pacific.

Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and provide a justifiable basis for establishment of adequate climate change mitigation policies and public health actions. An integrated research framework was adopted by combining a computable general equilibrium model, an air quality model, and a health impact assessment model, to explore the long-term economic impacts of climate change mitigation in South Korea through 2050. Mitigation costs were further compared with health-related economic benefits under different socioeconomic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Achieving ambitious targets (i.e., stabilization of the radiative forcing level at 3.4 W/m 2 ) would cost 1.3-8.5 billion USD in 2050, depending on varying carbon prices from different integrated assessment models. By contrast, achieving these same targets would reduce costs by 23 billion USD from the valuation of avoided premature mortality, 0.14 billion USD from health expenditures, and 0.38 billion USD from reduced lost work hours, demonstrating that health benefits alone noticeably offset the costs of cutting GHG emissions in South Korea., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Limiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

Land abandonment, e.g. agricultural land abandonment, can result in various social and ecological impacts. It would thus be helpful if the extent and spatial pattern of future land abandonment could be projected. However, the trajectory of future land abandonment generally depends on various factors, including biophysical conditions and future changes in socioeconomic indicators in the area. In this study, we developed a general framework for a scenario-based land abandonment projection, featuring a coupled regional economic and spatially explicit land change modeling approach. We applied this framework in selected municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, under two socioeconomic development scenarios (2014-2050): low population and economic growth (LL scenario) and high population and economic growth (HH scenario). The case study results, which are also visualized through a set of hot spot maps, revealed that agricultural land abandonment would be more intense under the HH scenario due to the much higher future decline in farmer population driven by the shift in people's employment and main source of livelihood. Under the LL scenario, residential and urban land abandonment would be more profound because of the much higher future decline in total population. In general, our results provide insights into some plausible future socioeconomic changes, their interplay and their consequent land abandonment in the case study area, which would be useful in the context of forward-looking adaptive development planning. The proposed framework can be applied to other case study areas., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Background: Previous studies show that escalations in ambient temperature are among the risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI). However, it has not been adequately studied in our location, Seoul, South Korea. In this study, we aimed to examine the association between ambient temperatures and AKI morbidity using emergency department (ED) visit data., Methods: We obtained data on ED visits from the National Emergency Medical Center for 21,656 reported cases of AKI from 2010 to 2014. Time-stratified case-crossover design analysis based on conditional logistic regression was used to analyze short-term effects of ambient temperature on AKI after controlling for relevant covariates. The shape of the exposure-response curve, effect modification by individual demographic characteristics, season, and comorbidities, as well as lag effects, were investigated., Results: The odds ratio (OR) per 1 °C increase at lag 0 was 1.0087 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0041-1.0134). Risks were higher during the warm season (OR = 1.0149; 95% CI: 1.0065-1.0234) than during the cool season (OR = 1.0059; 95% CI: 1.0003-1.0116) and even higher above 22.3 °C (OR = 1.0235; 95% CI: 1.0230-1.0239)., Conclusions: This study provides evidence that ED visits for AKI were associated with ambient temperature. Early detection and treatment of patients at risk is important in both clinical and economic concerns related to AKI.

Quality of life (QOL), although a complex and amorphous concept, is a term that warrants attention, especially in discussions on issues that touch on the impacts of climate change and variability. Based on the principles of RepOrting standards for Systematic Evidence Synthesis, we present a systematic review aimed at gaining insights into the conceptualization and methodological construct of previous studies regarding QOL and QOL-related indexes. We find that (i) QOL assessments vary in terms of conceptual foundations, dimensions, indicators, and units of analysis, (ii) social indicators are consistently used across assessments, (iii) most assessments consider indicators that pertain to the livability of the environment, and (iv) QOL can be based on objective indicators and/or subjective well-being, and on a composite index or unaggregated dimensions and indicators. However, we also find that QOL assessments remain poorly connected with climate-related issues, an important research gap. Our proposed "QOL-Climate" assessment framework, designed to capture the social-ecological impacts of climate change and variability, can potentially help fill this gap.

Changes in the environmental heat stress need to be properly evaluated to manage the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly in the context of climate change. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a useful index for evaluating heat stress and anticipating conditions related to heat-related illness in the present climate, but projecting the WBGT with a sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution remains challenging for future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for estimating the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT based on the output of general circulation models using only simple calculations. The method was applied to six sites in Japan and its performance was evaluated. The proposed method could reproduce the site-specific hourly resolution WBGT with a high accuracy. Based on the developed framework, we constructed future (2090s) projections under two different greenhouse gas emission pathways. These projections showed a consistent rise in the WBGT and thus the capacity to perform physically demanding activities is expected to decrease. To demonstrate the usefulness of the projected WBGT in planning adaptation measures, we identified the optimal working schedules which would minimize outdoor workers' exposure to heat at a specific site. The results show that a substantial shift in the working time is required in the future if outdoor workers are to compensate the effect of increased heat exposure only by changing their working hours. This methodological framework and the projections will provide local practitioners with useful information to manage the increased risk of heat stress under climate change.

While Southeast Asia's forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region's forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region's forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region's aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region's forests and their ecosystem functions and services.

Objectives: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as an indicator of cancer-related inflammation. The aim of our study was to examine the prognostic value of the NLR for patients with advanced gastric cancer receiving second-line chemotherapy., Methods: The association of overall survival (OS) in second-line chemotherapy and the clinicopathological findings including NLR were analyzed retrospectively. The selection criteria were patients who received second-line chemotherapy between January 2010 and June 2015, had histologically confirmed gastric adenocarcinoma, and were followed up until death or for 180 days or longer., Results: Eighty-six patients met the selection criteria. Multivariate analysis revealed that performance status 2, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, and NLR before first-line chemotherapy ≥3 were adverse predictive markers. NLR before second-line chemotherapy was not associated with OS. A prognostic model was constructed dividing patients into three groups according to the number of adverse predictive factors: good (no factor), intermediate (one factor), and poor (more than two factors). The median OS for the good, intermediate, and poor groups was 14.3, 7.2, and 4.4 months, respectively (p < 0.001)., Conclusions: Patients with advanced gastric cancer with performance status 2, hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, and NLR before first-line chemotherapy ≥3 are not likely to benefit from second-line chemotherapy., (© 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Myanmar is one of the mangrove-richest countries in the world, providing valuable ecosystem services to people. However, due to deforestation driven primarily by agricultural expansion, Myanmar's mangrove forest cover has declined dramatically over the past few decades, while what remains is still under pressure. To support management planning, accurate quantification of mangrove forest cover changes on a national scale is needed. In this study, we quantified Myanmar's mangrove forest cover changes between 2000 and 2014 using remotely sensed data, examined the environmental impacts of such changes, and estimated the changes in the economic values of mangrove ecosystem services in the country. Results indicate that Myanmar had a net mangrove loss of 191,122 ha over the study period. Since 2000, Myanmar has been losing mangrove forest cover at an alarming rate of 14,619 ha/year (2.2%/year). The loss was predominant in Rakhine and Ayeyarwady. The observed mangrove forest cover loss has resulted in decreased evapotranspiration, carbon stock, and tree cover percentage. Due to deforestation, Myanmar also suffered a net loss of 2,397 million US$/year in its mangrove ecosystem service value (i.e. 28.7% decrease from 2000), in which maintenance of fisheries nursery populations and habitat and coastal protection were among those services that were greatly affected. We suggest that intensive reforestation and mangrove protection programs be implemented immediately. Agroforestry and community forestry programs are encouraged in areas that are under immense pressure from paddy field expansion, fuelwood extraction, charcoal production, and fish and shrimp farming activities. Potential alternative sustainable solutions should include intensive government-led private forest plantations or community-owned forest plantations to be developed with care by local farmers, nongovernmental organizations, and business owners., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO 2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO 2 (- 1.2 GtCO 2 to 19.4 GtCO 2 ), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO 2 (- 6.9 GtCO 2 to 5.1 GtCO 2 ) for the 1.5 °C target (17-83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7-3.9) Wm -2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0-3.0) Wm -2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181-732) USD(2005)/tCO 2 and 713 (498-1014) USD(2005)/tCO 2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2-2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5-2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target.

A 70-year-old man with diabetes mellitus presented with an enlarged pituitary stalk in 2014. IgG4-related parotitis and submandibular sialoadenitis were diagnosed in 2012. He denied any symptoms related to a pituitary mass. His visual field was intact, and his hypopituitarism was subtle. The serum IgG4 level was elevated. A lip biopsy revealed strong fibrosis and hyper-infiltration of IgG4-positive plasma cells. Based on these findings, IgG4-related hypophysitis was diagnosed. The patient was carefully followed without specific intervention. His clinical condition showed no change until December 2016, suggesting a stable, natural course. Care should be taken when considering glucocorticoid therapy, especially for elderly diabetic patients, given possible side effects.

We performed a twofold intercomparison of river discharge regulated by dams under multiple meteorological forcings among multiple global hydrological models for a historical period by simulation. Paper II provides an intercomparison of river discharge simulated by five hydrological models under four meteorological forcings. This is the first global multimodel intercomparison study on dam-regulated river flow. Although the simulations were conducted globally, the Missouri-Mississippi and Green- Colorado Rivers were chosen as case-study sites in this study. The hydrological models incorporate generic schemes of dam operation, not specific to a certain dam. We examined river discharge on a longitudinal section of river channels to investigate the effects of dams on simulated discharge, especially at the seasonal time scale. We found that the magnitude of dam regulation differed considerably among the hydrological models. The difference was attributable not only to dam operation schemes but also to the magnitude of simulated river discharge flowing into dams. That is, although a similar algorithm of dam operation schemes was incorporated in different hydrological models, the magnitude of dam regulation substantially differed among the models. Intermodel discrepancies tended to decrease toward the lower reaches of these river basins, which means model dependence is less significant toward lower reaches. These case-study results imply that, intermodel comparisons of river discharge should be made at different locations along the river's course to critically examine the performance of hydrological models because the performance can vary with the locations.

Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

Objectives: We previously developed a model for projection of heat-related mortality attributable to climate change. The objective of this paper is to improve the fit and precision of and examine the robustness of the model., Methods: We obtained daily data for number of deaths and maximum temperature from respective governmental organizations of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the USA, and European countries. For future projection, we used the Bergen climate model 2 (BCM2) general circulation model, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B socioeconomic scenario, and the mortality projection for the 65+-year-old age group developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The heat-related excess mortality was defined as follows: The temperature-mortality relation forms a V-shaped curve, and the temperature at which mortality becomes lowest is called the optimum temperature (OT). The difference in mortality between the OT and a temperature beyond the OT is the excess mortality. To develop the model for projection, we used Japanese 47-prefecture data from 1972 to 2008. Using a distributed lag nonlinear model (two-dimensional nonparametric regression of temperature and its lag effect), we included the lag effect of temperature up to 15 days, and created a risk function curve on which the projection is based. As an example, we perform a future projection using the above-mentioned risk function. In the projection, we used 1961-1990 temperature as the baseline, and temperatures in the 2030s and 2050s were projected using the BCM2 global circulation model, SRES A1B scenario, and WHO-provided annual mortality. Here, we used the "counterfactual method" to evaluate the climate change impact; For example, baseline temperature and 2030 mortality were used to determine the baseline excess, and compared with the 2030 excess, for which we used 2030 temperature and 2030 mortality. In terms of adaptation to warmer climate, we assumed 0 % adaptation when the OT as of the current climate is used and 100 % adaptation when the OT as of the future climate is used. The midpoint of the OTs of the two types of adaptation was set to be the OT for 50 % adaptation., Results: We calculated heat-related excess mortality for 2030 and 2050., Conclusions: Our new model is considered to be better fit, and more precise and robust compared with the previous model.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in Asia. Pigs are a natural host and the amplifier of JE virus. The sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs reflects the activity of JE virus in the region. We analyzed whether precipitation has any effect on the sero-conversion rate to JE virus in sentinel pigs. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the correlations between the levels of precipitation and sero-conversion rates to JE virus, in the entire year and during summertime over the period of 32 years from 1969 to 2000. The levels of the annual and summertime precipitation demonstrated statistically significant positive correlations with sero-conversion rates for the whole of the country and for some regions in Japan. The levels of the summertime precipitation, on the other hand, demonstrated statistically significant inverse correlations with the sero-conversion rates in other regions. Further, the levels of precipitation during preceding 10-day periods from days 1-40 before blood collection showed inverse correlation with antibody-positive rates in some regions. The results indicate that the relationship between the annual and summertime precipitation, and the sero-conversion rate to JE virus is complex; both positive and inverse effects are demonstrated depending on the regions.