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The scaling laws and extraordinary performance of large foundation models motivate the development and utilization of such models in biomedicine. However, despite early promising results on some biomedical benchmarks, there are still major challenges that need to be addressed before these models can be used in real-world clinics. Frontier general-domain models such as GPT-4V still have significant performance gaps in multimodal biomedical applications. More importantly, less-acknowledged pragmatic issues, including accessibility, model cost, and tedious manual evaluation make it hard for clinicians to use state-of-the-art large models directly on private patient data. Here, we explore training open-source small multimodal models (SMMs) to bridge competency gaps for unmet clinical needs in radiology. To maximize data efficiency, we adopt a modular approach by incorporating state-of-the-art pre-trained models for image and text modalities, and focusing on training a lightweight adapter to ground each modality to the text embedding space, as exemplified by LLaVA-Med. For training, we assemble a large dataset of over 697 thousand radiology image-text pairs. For evaluation, we propose CheXprompt, a GPT-4-based metric for factuality evaluation, and demonstrate its parity with expert evaluation. For best practice, we conduct a systematic ablation study on various choices in data engineering and multimodal training. The resulting LlaVA-Rad (7B) model attains state-of-the-art results on standard radiology tasks such as report generation and cross-modal retrieval, even outperforming much larger models such as GPT-4V and Med-PaLM M (84B). The inference of LlaVA-Rad is fast and can be performed on a single V100 GPU in private settings, offering a promising state-of-the-art tool for real-world clinical applications.

Transformer Hawkes process models have shown to be successful in modeling event sequence data. However, most of the existing training methods rely on maximizing the likelihood of event sequences, which involves calculating some intractable integral. Moreover, the existing methods fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, e.g., confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time. To address these issues, we propose SMURF-THP, a score-based method for learning Transformer Hawkes process and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Specifically, SMURF-THP learns the score function of events' arrival time based on a score-matching objective that avoids the intractable computation. With such a learned score function, we can sample arrival time of events from the predictive distribution. This naturally allows for the quantification of uncertainty by computing confidence intervals over the generated samples. We conduct extensive experiments in both event type prediction and uncertainty quantification of arrival time. In all the experiments, SMURF-THP outperforms existing likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration while exhibiting comparable prediction accuracy.

The ability to create high-quality 3D faces from a single image has become increasingly important with wide applications in video conferencing, AR/VR, and advanced video editing in movie industries. In this paper, we propose Face Diffusion NeRF (FaceDNeRF), a new generative method to reconstruct high-quality Face NeRFs from single images, complete with semantic editing and relighting capabilities. FaceDNeRF utilizes high-resolution 3D GAN inversion and expertly trained 2D latent-diffusion model, allowing users to manipulate and construct Face NeRFs in zero-shot learning without the need for explicit 3D data. With carefully designed illumination and identity preserving loss, as well as multi-modal pre-training, FaceDNeRF offers users unparalleled control over the editing process enabling them to create and edit face NeRFs using just single-view images, text prompts, and explicit target lighting. The advanced features of FaceDNeRF have been designed to produce more impressive results than existing 2D editing approaches that rely on 2D segmentation maps for editable attributes. Experiments show that our FaceDNeRF achieves exceptionally realistic results and unprecedented flexibility in editing compared with state-of-the-art 3D face reconstruction and editing methods. Our code will be available at https://github.com/BillyXYB/FaceDNeRF.

Biomedical data is inherently multimodal, comprising physical measurements and natural language narratives. A generalist biomedical AI model needs to simultaneously process different modalities of data, including text and images. Therefore, training an effective generalist biomedical model requires high-quality multimodal data, such as parallel image-text pairs. Here, we present PMC-15M, a novel dataset that is two orders of magnitude larger than existing biomedical multimodal datasets such as MIMIC-CXR, and spans a diverse range of biomedical image types. PMC-15M contains 15 million biomedical image-text pairs collected from 4.4 million scientific articles. Based on PMC-15M, we have pretrained BiomedCLIP, a multimodal foundation model, with domain-specific adaptations tailored to biomedical vision-language processing. We conducted extensive experiments and ablation studies on standard biomedical imaging tasks from retrieval to classification to visual question-answering (VQA). BiomedCLIP achieved new state-of-the-art results in a wide range of standard datasets, substantially outperforming prior approaches. Intriguingly, by large-scale pretraining on diverse biomedical image types, BiomedCLIP even outperforms state-of-the-art radiology-specific models such as BioViL in radiology-specific tasks such as RSNA pneumonia detection. In summary, BiomedCLIP is a fully open-access foundation model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on various biomedical tasks, paving the way for transformative multimodal biomedical discovery and applications. We release our models at https://aka.ms/biomedclip to facilitate future research in multimodal biomedical AI., Comment: The models are released at https://aka.ms/biomedclip

Machine Learning (ML) research has focused on maximizing the accuracy of predictive tasks. ML models, however, are increasingly more complex, resource intensive, and costlier to deploy in resource-constrained environments. These issues are exacerbated for prediction tasks with sequential classification on progressively transitioned stages with ''happens-before'' relation between them.We argue that it is possible to ''unfold'' a monolithic single multi-class classifier, typically trained for all stages using all data, into a series of single-stage classifiers. Each single-stage classifier can be cascaded gradually from cheaper to more expensive binary classifiers that are trained using only the necessary data modalities or features required for that stage. UnfoldML is a cost-aware and uncertainty-based dynamic 2D prediction pipeline for multi-stage classification that enables (1) navigation of the accuracy/cost tradeoff space, (2) reducing the spatio-temporal cost of inference by orders of magnitude, and (3) early prediction on proceeding stages. UnfoldML achieves orders of magnitude better cost in clinical settings, while detecting multi-stage disease development in real time. It achieves within 0.1% accuracy from the highest-performing multi-class baseline, while saving close to 20X on spatio-temporal cost of inference and earlier (3.5hrs) disease onset prediction. We also show that UnfoldML generalizes to image classification, where it can predict different level of labels (from coarse to fine) given different level of abstractions of a image, saving close to 5X cost with as little as 0.4% accuracy reduction., Comment: To be published in NeurIPS'22

Recent advances like StyleGAN have promoted the growth of controllable facial editing. To address its core challenge of attribute decoupling in a single latent space, attempts have been made to adopt dual-space GAN for better disentanglement of style and content representations. Nonetheless, these methods are still incompetent to obtain plausible editing results with high controllability, especially for complicated attributes. In this study, we highlight the importance of interaction in a dual-space GAN for more controllable editing. We propose TransEditor, a novel Transformer-based framework to enhance such interaction. Besides, we develop a new dual-space editing and inversion strategy to provide additional editing flexibility. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed framework in image quality and editing capability, suggesting the effectiveness of TransEditor for highly controllable facial editing., Comment: CVPR 2022. Code: https://github.com/BillyXYB/TransEditor Project page: https://billyxyb.github.io/TransEditor/

For many kinds of interventions, such as a new advertisement, marketing intervention, or feature recommendation, it is important to target a specific subset of people for maximizing its benefits at minimum cost or potential harm. However, a key challenge is that no data is available about the effect of such a prospective intervention since it has not been deployed yet. In this work, we propose a split-treatment analysis that ranks the individuals most likely to be positively affected by a prospective intervention using past observational data. Unlike standard causal inference methods, the split-treatment method does not need any observations of the target treatments themselves. Instead it relies on observations of a proxy treatment that is caused by the target treatment. Under reasonable assumptions, we show that the ranking of heterogeneous causal effect based on the proxy treatment is the same as the ranking based on the target treatment's effect. In the absence of any interventional data for cross-validation, Split-Treatment uses sensitivity analyses for unobserved confounding to select model parameters. We apply Split-Treatment to both a simulated data and a large-scale, real-world targeting task and validate our discovered rankings via a randomized experiment for the latter., Comment: To be published in WSDM

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling counterfactual outcome based on static data. However, many applications have time-varying confounding effects such as multiple treatments over time. How to model such time-varying effects from longitudinal observational data? How to model complex high-dimensional dependency in the data? To address these challenges, we propose Deep Recurrent Inverse TreatmEnt weighting (DeepRite) by incorporating recurrent neural networks into two-phase adjustments for the existence of time-varying confounding in modern longitudinal data. In phase I cohort reweighting we fit one network for emitting time dependent inverse probabilities of treatment, use them to generate a pseudo balanced cohort. In phase II outcome progression, we input the adjusted data to the subsequent predictive network for making counterfactual predictions. We evaluate DeepRite on both synthetic data and a real data collected from sepsis patients in the intensive care units. DeepRite is shown to recover the ground truth from synthetic data, and estimate unbiased treatment effects from real data that can be better aligned with the standard guidelines for management of sepsis thanks to its applicability to create balanced cohorts.

Deep learning models have achieved expert-level performance in healthcare with an exclusive focus on training accurate models. However, in many clinical environments such as intensive care unit (ICU), real-time model serving is equally if not more important than accuracy, because in ICU patient care is simultaneously more urgent and more expensive. Clinical decisions and their timeliness, therefore, directly affect both the patient outcome and the cost of care. To make timely decisions, we argue the underlying serving system must be latency-aware. To compound the challenge, health analytic applications often require a combination of models instead of a single model, to better specialize individual models for different targets, multi-modal data, different prediction windows, and potentially personalized predictions. To address these challenges, we propose HOLMES-an online model ensemble serving framework for healthcare applications. HOLMES dynamically identifies the best performing set of models to ensemble for highest accuracy, while also satisfying sub-second latency constraints on end-to-end prediction. We demonstrate that HOLMES is able to navigate the accuracy/latency tradeoff efficiently, compose the ensemble, and serve the model ensemble pipeline, scaling to simultaneously streaming data from 100 patients, each producing waveform data at 250~Hz. HOLMES outperforms the conventional offline batch-processed inference for the same clinical task in terms of accuracy and latency (by order of magnitude). HOLMES is tested on risk prediction task on pediatric cardio ICU data with above 95% prediction accuracy and sub-second latency on 64-bed simulation.

With the improvement of medical data capturing, vast amount of continuous patient monitoring data, e.g., electrocardiogram (ECG), real-time vital signs and medications, become available for clinical decision support at intensive care units (ICUs). However, it becomes increasingly challenging to model such data, due to high density of the monitoring data, heterogeneous data types and the requirement for interpretable models. Integration of these high-density monitoring data with the discrete clinical events (including diagnosis, medications, labs) is challenging but potentially rewarding since richness and granularity in such multimodal data increase the possibilities for accurate detection of complex problems and predicting outcomes (e.g., length of stay and mortality). We propose Recurrent Attentive and Intensive Model (RAIM) for jointly analyzing continuous monitoring data and discrete clinical events. RAIM introduces an efficient attention mechanism for continuous monitoring data (e.g., ECG), which is guided by discrete clinical events (e.g, medication usage). We apply RAIM in predicting physiological decompensation and length of stay in those critically ill patients at ICU. With evaluations on MIMIC- III Waveform Database Matched Subset, we obtain an AUC-ROC score of 90.18% for predicting decompensation and an accuracy of 86.82% for forecasting length of stay with our final model, which outperforms our six baseline models.

We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by applications where response varies by individuals and therefore, estimating responses at the individual-level is valuable for personalizing decision-making. We refer to this as the problem of estimating individualized treatment response (ITR) curves. In statistics, G-computation formula (Robins, 1986) has been commonly used for estimating treatment responses from observational data containing sequential treatment assignments. However, past studies have focused predominantly on obtaining point-in-time estimates at the population level. We leverage the G-computation formula and develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method that can flexibly model functional data and provide posterior inference over the treatment response curves at both the individual and population level. On a challenging dataset containing time series from patients admitted to a hospital, we estimate responses to treatments used in managing kidney function and show that the resulting fits are more accurate than alternative approaches. Accurate methods for obtaining ITRs from observational data can dramatically accelerate the pace at which personalized treatment plans become possible.

A long-standing challenge for knowledge tracing is how to update estimates of multiple subskills that underlie a single observable step. We characterize approaches to this problem by how they model knowledge tracing, fit its parameters, predict performance, and update subskill estimates. Previous methods allocated blame or credit among subskills in various ways based on strong assumptions about their relation to observed performance. LR-DBN relaxes these assumptions by using logistic regression in a Dynamic Bayes Net. LR-DBN significantly outperforms previous methods on data sets from reading and algebra tutors in terms of predictive accuracy on unseen data, cutting the error rate by half. An ablation experiment shows that using logistic regression to predict performance helps, but that using it to jointly estimate subskills explains most of this dramatic improvement. An implementation of LR-DBN is now publicly available in the BNT-SM student modeling toolkit. Instruction to use LR-DBN in BNT-SM is appended. (Contains 2 figures, 7 tables, and 2 footnotes.) [For the complete proceedings, "Proceedings of the International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM) (5th, Channa, Greece, June 19-21, 2012)," see ED537074.]