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The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) techniques is often hindered by the lack of comprehensive datasets. This is particularly problematic for time-series weather forecasting, where commonly used datasets suffer from significant limitations such as small size, limited temporal coverage, and sparse spatial distribution. These constraints severely impede the optimization and evaluation of TSF models, resulting in benchmarks that are not representative of real-world applications, such as operational weather forecasting. In this work, we introduce the WEATHER-5K dataset, a comprehensive collection of observational weather data that better reflects real-world scenarios. As a result, it enables a better training of models and a more accurate assessment of the real-world forecasting capabilities of TSF models, pushing them closer to in-situ applications. Through extensive benchmarking against operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, we provide researchers with a clear assessment of the gap between academic TSF models and real-world weather forecasting applications. This highlights the significant performance disparity between TSF and NWP models by analyzing performance across detailed weather variables, extreme weather event prediction, and model complexity comparison. Finally, we summarise the result into recommendations to the users and highlight potential areas required to facilitate further TSF research. The dataset and benchmark implementation are available at: https://github.com/taohan10200/WEATHER-5K., Comment: 29 pages, 14 figures

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on learning data mapping rather than fine-grained physical evolution in the time dimension. Consequently, the limitations in the temporal scale of datasets prevent these models from forecasting at finer time scales. This paper proposes a physics-AI hybrid model (i.e., WeatherGFT) which Generalizes weather forecasts to Finer-grained Temporal scales beyond training dataset. Specifically, we employ a carefully designed PDE kernel to simulate physical evolution on a small time scale (e.g., 300 seconds) and use a parallel neural networks with a learnable router for bias correction. Furthermore, we introduce a lead time-aware training framework to promote the generalization of the model at different lead times. The weight analysis of physics-AI modules indicates that physics conducts major evolution while AI performs corrections adaptively. Extensive experiments show that WeatherGFT trained on an hourly dataset, achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple lead times and exhibits the capability to generalize 30-minute forecasts.

The advent of data-driven weather forecasting models, which learn from hundreds of terabytes (TB) of reanalysis data, has significantly advanced forecasting capabilities. However, the substantial costs associated with data storage and transmission present a major challenge for data providers and users, affecting resource-constrained researchers and limiting their accessibility to participate in AI-based meteorological research. To mitigate this issue, we introduce an efficient neural codec, the Variational Autoencoder Transformer (VAEformer), for extreme compression of climate data to significantly reduce data storage cost, making AI-based meteorological research portable to researchers. Our approach diverges from recent complex neural codecs by utilizing a low-complexity Auto-Encoder transformer. This encoder produces a quantized latent representation through variance inference, which reparameterizes the latent space as a Gaussian distribution. This method improves the estimation of distributions for cross-entropy coding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our VAEformer outperforms existing state-of-the-art compression methods in the context of climate data. By applying our VAEformer, we compressed the most popular ERA5 climate dataset (226 TB) into a new dataset, CRA5 (0.7 TB). This translates to a compression ratio of over 300 while retaining the dataset's utility for accurate scientific analysis. Further, downstream experiments show that global weather forecasting models trained on the compact CRA5 dataset achieve forecasting accuracy comparable to the model trained on the original dataset. Code, the CRA5 dataset, and the pre-trained model are available at https://github.com/taohan10200/CRA5., Comment: Main text and supplementary, 22 pages, 13 figures

In recent years, with the rapid development of graph neural networks (GNN), more and more graph datasets have been published for GNN tasks. However, when an upstream data owner publishes graph data, there are often many privacy concerns, because many real-world graph data contain sensitive information like person's friend list. Differential privacy (DP) is a common method to protect privacy, but due to the complex topological structure of graph data, applying DP on graphs often affects the message passing and aggregation of GNN models, leading to a decrease in model accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel graph edge protection framework, graph publisher (GraphPub), which can protect graph topology while ensuring that the availability of data is basically unchanged. Through reverse learning and the encoder-decoder mechanism, we search for some false edges that do not have a large negative impact on the aggregation of node features, and use them to replace some real edges. The modified graph will be published, which is difficult to distinguish between real and false data. Sufficient experiments prove that our framework achieves model accuracy close to the original graph with an extremely low privacy budget.

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar data plays a crucial role in extreme weather prediction and has broad implications for disaster management. Despite progresses have been made based on deep learning, two key challenges of precipitation nowcasting are not well-solved: (i) the modeling of complex precipitation system evolutions with different scales, and (ii) accurate forecasts for extreme precipitation. In this work, we propose CasCast, a cascaded framework composed of a deterministic and a probabilistic part to decouple the predictions for mesoscale precipitation distributions and small-scale patterns. Then, we explore training the cascaded framework at the high resolution and conducting the probabilistic modeling in a low dimensional latent space with a frame-wise-guided diffusion transformer for enhancing the optimization of extreme events while reducing computational costs. Extensive experiments on three benchmark radar precipitation datasets show that CasCast achieves competitive performance. Especially, CasCast significantly surpasses the baseline (up to +91.8%) for regional extreme-precipitation nowcasting.

Data-driven weather forecast based on machine learning (ML) has experienced rapid development and demonstrated superior performance in the global medium-range forecast compared to traditional physics-based dynamical models. However, most of these ML models struggle with accurately predicting extreme weather, which is related to training loss and the uncertainty of weather systems. Through mathematical analysis, we prove that the use of symmetric losses, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE), leads to biased predictions and underestimation of extreme values. To address this issue, we introduce Exloss, a novel loss function that performs asymmetric optimization and highlights extreme values to obtain accurate extreme weather forecast. Beyond the evolution in training loss, we introduce a training-free extreme value enhancement module named ExBooster, which captures the uncertainty in prediction outcomes by employing multiple random samples, thereby increasing the hit rate of low-probability extreme events. Combined with an advanced global weather forecast model, extensive experiments show that our solution can achieve state-of-the-art performance in extreme weather prediction, while maintaining the overall forecast accuracy comparable to the top medium-range forecast models.

The problem of graph isomorphism is an important but challenging problem in the field of graph analysis, for example: analyzing the similarity of two chemical molecules, or studying the expressive ability of graph neural networks. WL test is a method to judge whether two graphs are isomorphic, but it cannot distinguish all non-isomorphic graphs. As an improvement of WL, k-WL has stronger isomorphism discrimination ability, and as k increases, its discrimination ability is strictly increasing. However, whether the isomorphic discrimination power of k-WL is strictly increasing for more complex 3D graphs, or whether there exists k that can discriminate all 3D graphs, remains unexplored. This paper attempts to explore this problem from the perspective of graph generation.