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The conventional flood cooling is neither economically viable nor eco-friendly in the cutting process. The vegetable oil is biodegradable and environmentally friendly used as base oil for the minimum quantity lubricant (MQL) cutting, but the temperature field in the milling zone with different vegetable oils as lubricants remains unclear. The temperature of the MQL milling of the 45 steel was studied with cottonseed, palm, castor, soybean, and peanut oils as base oils. The effects of the fatty acid composition, carbon chain length, thermal conductivity, and viscosity on the milling temperature were also considered. The temperature distribution of the milling of the 45 steel with five different vegetable oils was simulated, showing that the cottonseed and the palm oils had good cooling effect. Experimental results were consistent with the findings obtained using the temperature simulation analysis. Compared with that of the flood milling, the temperature of the MQL milling with different vegetable oils decreased, and the temperature was reduced by 67.4% when the cottonseed oil was used. The surface quality of the workpiece was improved during the MQL milling. When the cottonseed oil was used as lubricant, the surface roughness (Ra) values decreased by 41.5%, 53%, and 50.2% when the cottonseed, palm, and castor oils, respectively, were used as lubricating fluids, which indicated that the advantages of biolubricants as base oils especially cottonseed, palm, and castor oils could be used as base oils for the MQL milling.

The spectral computed tomography (CT) based on photon counting detectors can collect the incident photons with different energy ranges. However, due to the low photon counts in narrow energy bin and the unhomogeneous response problem of detector cells, there are severe noise and ring artifacts in reconstructed spectral CT images. We proposed an image denoising and ring artifacts removal method via improved Fully Convolutional Pyramid Residual Network (FCPRN). In our study, we scanned a mouse specimen with spectral CT based on photon counting detector, and reconstructed mouse CT images as data set. Then we use the data set to train our network for image denoising and ring artifacts removal. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method could reduce noise and suppress ring artifacts of spectral CT images concurrently in different energy ranges. And the performance of the FCPRN is better than that of some networks for CT image denoising.

Minimum quantity lubricant milling (MLQM) with nanofluids is one of the main processing methods used in sustainable green manufacturing. Nanoparticles can drastically enhance the heat transfer ability of metalworking fluids. Thus, nanofluids modified with different nanoparticles have important applications as milling coolants. Nevertheless, few studies have investigated the influence of different nanoparticles on the cooling mechanisms of nanofluids. An experimental study was conducted to explore the cooling performances of different nanofluids in the MQLM of Ti–6Al–4V. Cottonseed oil was used as the nanofluid base and was modified with six different nanoparticles at the mass ratio of 1.5%. Cooling performance was evaluated with several milling parameters, including milling force, instantaneous temperature, and surface roughness, which was represented as the arithmetic average height (Ra) of the workpiece surface. The microtopography of the final milled samples was also examined. Results demonstrated that the mean of the milling force peak in the X direction under milling with SiO2 nanofluid was 436 N, which was lower than that under milling with MoS2 nanofluid (445.5 N). The lowest milling temperature was obtained with SiO2 nanofluid. This result indicated that SiO2 nanoparticles had the strongest cooling capacity. Workpiece temperature rapidly decreased to a low value under milling with SiO2 and Al2O3 nanofluids. The most drastic temperature drop was observed in MQLM with SiO2 nanofluid, followed by that in MQLM with Al2O3 nanofluid. The lowest Ra value was obtained under milling with Al2O3 nanofluid (0.59 μm), followed by that obtained under milling with SiO2 nanofluid (0.61 μm). The Ra value acquired under milling with Al2O3 nanofluid was 66.7% lower than that of acquired under milling with pure cottonseed oil. Given that Al2O3 and SiO2 nanoparticles demonstrated the best cooling performance, they are highly suitable as additives for the base oil.

As China's aging population increases, falls have become a common health problem among the elderly. Therefore, fall detection has become an important research direction relating to elderly health problems. In this article, we propose a low-cost smart home fall detecting and monitoring system based on the YCL(YOLO V3 combined with the LiteFlowNet) algorithm and multi-sensor fusion. On the one hand, the behavior of the elderly is monitored by using the YCL algorithm to detect fall activities. On the other hand, a multi-sensor fusion algorithm is applied based on the embedded sensors of a smartphone-i.e., acceleration and air pressure sensors-to detect fall actions. The outputs of these two methods are fused to generate a final result, which is improved in terms of the performance and accuracy of fall detection. Once the fall action is confirmed, the smartphone will immediately send an alert SMS to the emergency contact to seek medical assistance. Our experimental results validate that by combining the two methods, the false alarm rate is reduced, and the fall detection can be achieved even in the blind zone of the camera.

Polyelectrolyte complex (PECs) hydrogels with high hygroscopicity modulation ability were successfully prepared based on carboxymethyl chitosan (CMCS)/alginate. The swelling ratio of the hydrogels could be tuned from 1 to 450 simply by changing the weight ratio of CMCS to alginate, and superabsorbent hydrogels were obtained when the weight ratio of CMCS to alginate was below 1/1. Also, the swelling kinetics and water diffusion mechanism in the hydrogels were discussed. In vitro cytotoxicity results indicated that hydrogels had excellent cytocompatibility. The swelling ratio of the hydrogel as well as its BSA releasing profile was notably pH dependent. Compared with the values at pH 1.2, the swelling ratio of hydrogels (CMCS/alginate weight ratio of 1/2) at pH 7.4 was about 34 times higher, and the amount of BSA released at pH 7.4 was also significantly higher. The as-prepared CMCS/alginate PECs hydrogels hold great potential for oral delivery of protein drugs through the intestinal tract.

The mangrove Kandelia candel (L.) Druce experiences daily flooding cycles. To explore the molecular mechanism underlying the physiological adaptation of K. candel to flooding, the potential role of protein phosphorylation in flooding responses was investigated by a large-scale quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis using isobaric tag for relative and absolute quantitation. Total 2141 unique phosphopeptides and 2603 non-redundant phosphorylation sites were identified from 1516 phosphoproteins in K. candel leaves. In addition to known phosphorylation motifs, three new motifs [GSP], [GxxSP] and [RSxS] were discovered. The phosphorylation levels of 96 differentially expressed phosphoproteins, including those involved in pyruvate metabolism and energy production, were identified in response to flooding. The physiological parameters and transcriptional levels relevant to flooding responses including photosynthesis, pyruvate metabolism, and ROS production were investigated and all were found to be robust under flooding conditions. The consistent results of the phosphoproteomic, physiological analyses and transcriptional levels reinforce each other to demonstrate that K. candel adapts to flooding through maintaining sufficient photosynthesis activities, achieving effective anaerobic respiration and increasing pentose phosphate pathway flux. Protein phosphorylation is likely to play a major role in the regulation of these pathways which together contribute to stable energy supply that enhances flooding tolerance in K. candel. Biological significance Flooding stress is one of the major environmental stresses. The woody mangrove Kandelia candel experiences daily flooding cycles in its natural habitat. Protein phosphorylation is a crucial regulatory mechanism in plants' responses to both biotic and abiotic stresses. To analyze phosphorylation levels in critical enzymes involved in key metabolic pathways, we employed phosphoproteomic approach to dissect the adaptive mechanism of K. candel to flooding conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first large-scale quantitative phosphoproteomic analyses of K. candel's flooding responses. Multiplex iTRAQ-based quantitative proteomic and Nano-LC–MS/MS methods were used to construct the phosphorproteome. Our results indicate that K. candel is able to acquire stable energy supply under flooding by maintaining sufficient photosynthesis activities, enhancing effective anaerobic respiration and increasing pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) flux. The protein phosphorylation found in photosynthesis, anaerobic respiration and PPP is likely to play important roles in the flooding tolerance of K. candel.

To explore the adaptation mechanisms of Kandelia candel (L.) Druce in response to daily flooding, a large-scale quantitative lysine acetylome was carried out using immunoaffinity enrichment of Lys-acetylated peptides and liquid chromatography linked to tandem mass spectrometry. A total of 1041 lysine acetylation (LysAc) sites, 1021 Lys-acetylated peptides and 617 Lys-acetylated proteins were identified. Six conserved sequence motifs of the LysAc sites, including a new motif KxxxxK, were detected. Among these proteins, 260 were differentially acetylated in response to flooding, which were preferentially predicted to participate in carbon metabolism and photosynthesis pathways based on KEGG pathway category enrichment analysis. Consistently, the transcriptional level of acetyltransferase and the consumption of acetyl-CoA were up-regulated under flooding conditions. Most of physiological parameters and mRNA expression levels related to carbon metabolism and photosynthesis were found to be insignificantly affected by flooding. Taken together, reversible protein LysAc is likely to be a post-translational mechanism contributing to the mangrove K. candel's adaptation to daily flooding.

The addition of nano-fluids with different nano-particles into the biodegradable vegetable oil base has an effect on the wetting contact angle of Al7075, the cutting force and the lubrication performance, and the surface morphology of the workpiece and chip. In Milling Al7075, the lubrication performance of six different nano-fluids was evaluated. In this paper, the contact angle, cutting force and SEM morphology of aircraft Al7075 were evaluated under the lubrication conditions of Al2O3, MoS2, SiO2, CNTs, SiC and Graphite. The experimental results show that the cutting force in x direction of milling under so 2 nano-fluid lubrication is obviously smaller than that under so 2 nano-fluid lubrication. The cutting force in x direction under Al2O3 nano-fluid lubrication is 109.6% larger than that under so 2 nano-fluid lubrication, the cutting force of other nano-fluids in x direction is 2%-5% higher than that of Al2O3 nano-fluids in x direction. The rolling of SO2 spherical micro-particles can reduce the wear and the cutting force, improve the surface quality. The results show that the SO2 nano-fluid has good lubrication and wear-reducing performance.

The halophilic mangrove species Kandelia candel is an excellent model for understanding why halophytes thrive in high salinity. Preliminary transcriptomic analyses revealed that genes involved in diverse functions, such as in phenylpropanoid and amino acid metabolisms, and those in DNA replication and damage repair were highly responsive to salt stress. Proteomic analyses revealed that the proteins involved in light reaction of photosynthesis, amino acid and carbohydrate metabolisms, secondary metabolite biosynthesis and posttranslational modification showed increased levels in response to salt stress. The metabolisms of phenylpropanoids and amino acids under salt stress were systematically examined based on the preliminary omics analyses. The activities of phenylpropanoid biosynthetic enzymes and the contents of phenols, flavonoids, anthocyanins and lignins were significantly increased under salt stress. In the free amino acid pool, glutamate was the most abundant. Together with γ-aminobutyric acid, glutamate levels further increased, while proline levels remained unchanged in response to salt stress. These findings point to the potential importance of phenylpropanoids and free amino acids in salt tolerance of K. candel that have been observed, but not systemically investigated at the levels of gene expression, enzyme activity and metabolite accumulation in glycophytes and non-tree halophytes.

Anthocyanin biosynthesis in herbaceous plants has been studied widely, but the mechanism of anthocyanin accumulation in ‘Zijuan’ tea remains unclear. In this study, the leaf transcriptome of ‘Zijuan’ tea was analyzed at the purple and green stages by using the Illumina HiSeq 2500 platform. A total of 2250 unigenes were differentially expressed at the purple and green stages. Anthocyanin biosynthesis and carbohydrate metabolism were enriched through the KEGG metabolic pathway analysis of the differentially expressed unigenes. The upregulated sucrose synthase gene in the purple leaves may provide hexoses and UDP-glucose for anthocyanin synthesis. The genes encoding the corresponding enzymes in the glycolysis pathway were upregulated, whereas the expression of those genes encoding the enzymes in the TCA cycle showed no obvious change. Increased acetyl-CoA may contribute to anthocyanin accumulation through the upregulated cytosolic acetyl-coenzyme A carboxylase (ACCase) gene in the purple leaves of ‘Zijuan’ tea, indicating that glycolysis may provide more intermediates as substrates for promoting anthocyanin accumulation. The physiological and qRT-PCR results were consistent with the RNA-Seq data. Our findings expand our knowledge on the metabolic regulation of anthocyanin synthesis in tea plants.

In situ injectable hydrogels for wound healing based on carboxymethyl chitosan (CMCS) and alginate were developed in this work. The liquid mixture of CMCS and alginate solutions formed a gel by polyelectrolyte complexation after addition of d -glucono-δ-lactone (GDL), which slowly hydrolyzed and donated protons. When chitosan oligosaccharide (COS) was added into the mixture, a two-stage gelling process occurred. The primary gelling process was similar to that of the hydrogel without COS, while the secondary gelling process appeared about 20 min later, and much stronger hydrogels with storage modulus G’ about 1 MPa, 104 times higher, were obtained. COS also significantly influenced the microstructure of hydrogels as well as their biological activities. The hydrogels with 0.5% of COS significantly promoted proliferation of human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells (HUMSCs). These injectable hydrogels, especially when COS was added, remarkably accelerated the wound healing process in a mouse skin defect model. Microscopic wound analysis showed an increase of the thickness and integrity of epidermal tissue, increased formation of collagen fibers, and enhanced expression of vascular endothelial growth factor as compared to the control group.

Xiaojie Lv,1 Ming Zhao,1,2 Yuiji Wang,1 Xi Hu,1 Jianhui Wu,1 Xueyun Jiang,1 Shan Li,1 Chunying Cui,1 Shiqi Peng1 1Beijing Area Major Laboratory of Peptide and Small Molecular Drugs, Engineering Research Center of Endogenous Prophylactic of Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Laboratory of Biomedical Materials, College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Capital Medical University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Biomedical Science and Environmental Biology, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan Abstract: In the treatment of cancer patients, cisplatin (CDDP) exhibits serious cardiac and renal toxicities, while classical combinations related to CDDP are unable to solve these problems and may result in worse prognosis. Alternately, this study covalently conjugated 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) onto the surface of mercapto-modified mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSNS) to form MSNS-6MP and loaded CDDP into the holes on the surface of MSNS-6MP to form MSNS-6MP/CDDP, a tumor-targeting nano-releasing regime for CDDP and 6MP specifically. In the S180 mouse model, the anti-tumor activity and overall survival of MSNS-6MP/CDDP (50mg·kg-1·day-1, corresponding to 1mg·kg-1·day-1 of 6MP and 5mg·kg-1·day-1 of CDDP) were significantly higher than those of CDDP alone (5mg·kg-1·day-1) or CDDP (5mg·kg-1·day-1) plus 6MP (1mg·kg-1·day-1). The assays of serum alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase and creatinine, as well as the images of myocardium and kidney histology, support that MSNS-6MP/CDDP is able to completely eliminate liver, kidney and heart toxicities induced by CDDP alone or CDDP plus 6MP. Keywords: 6-mercaptopurine, cisplatin, mesoporous silica nanoparticles, cancer therapy, nanomedicine

Adipose-derived stromal cells (ADSCs) could be induced to differentiate into chondrocytes in the presence of cellular factors. In this study, we explored the feasibility of inducing the differentiation of ADSCs into chondrocytes in the presence of chondrocytes. Human ADSCs and porcine auricular chondrocytes were expanded in vitro and then were mixed at the ratio of 7:3. 5.0 × 10(7) mixed cells were seeded onto a polyglycolic acid/polylactic acid scaffold as co-culture group. Chondrocytes and ADSCs with the same cell number were seeded onto the scaffold as positive control group and negative control group. A total of 1.5 × 10(7) chondrocytes were seeded as low-concentration chondrocyte group. After culturing for 8 weeks, gross observation, wet weight, histology, glycosaminoglycan quantification, and collagen II expression were evaluated. Cells in all groups well adhered to the scaffold and could secrete extracellular matrices. In the co-culture group and positive control group, cell-scaffold constructs could maintain the original size and shape during the culture. At the 8th week, cartilage-like tissues were formed, and abundant type II collagen could be detected by immunohistochemistry and reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction in co-culture and positive control groups. Wet weights and glycosaminoglycan contents of tissues in co-culture group were approximately onefold of those in the negative control group. In the negative control group, constructs shrunk gradually without mature cartilage lacuna formation. In low-concentration chondrocyte group, constructs also shrunk obviously with small amount of cartilage formation. Chondrocytes can provide chondrogenic microenvironment to induce chondrogenic differentiation of ADSCs and thus promote the chondrogenesis of ADSCs in vitro.

In vivo niche plays an important role in determining the fate of exogenously implanted stem cells. Due to the lack of a proper chondrogenic niche, stable ectopic chondrogenesis of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in subcutaneous environments remains a great challenge. The clinical application of MSC-regenerated cartilage in repairing defects in subcutaneous cartilage such as nasal or auricular cartilage is thus severely limited. The creation of a chondrogenic niche in subcutaneous environments is the key to solving this problem. The current study demonstrates that bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) could form cartilage-like tissue in a subcutaneous environment when co-transplanted with articular chondrocytes, indicating that chondrocytes could create a chondrogenic niche to direct chondrogenesis of BMSCs. Then, a series of in vitro co-culture models revealed that it was the secretion of soluble factors by chondrocytes but not cell-cell contact that provided the chondrogenic signals. The subsequent studies further demonstrated that multiple factors currently used for chondroinduction (including TGF-β1, IGF-1 and BMP-2) were present in the supernatant of chondrocyte-engineered constructs. Furthermore, all of these factors were required for initiating chondrogenic differentiation and fulfilled their roles in a coordinated way. These results suggest that paracrine signaling of soluble chondrogenic factors provided by chondrocytes was an important mechanism in directing the in vivo ectopic chondrogenesis of BMSCs. The multiple co-culture systems established in this study provide new methods for directing committed differentiation of stem cells as well as new in vitro models for studying differentiation mechanism of stem cells determined by a tissue-specific niche.

Adipose-derived stem cells (ASCs) are considered as a promising cell source for cartilage regeneration. However, the heterogeneity of this cell source may affect their ability in cartilage formation. It is therefore necessary to establish an efficient method for isolating the cells that have chondrogenic potential. To date, no specific markers have been reported to be able to isolate such a cell population from human adipose tissue. In recent studies, endoglin (CD105) has been known as a relatively specific marker for identifying mesenchymal stem cells, but no studies show it is related to chondrogenic potential of human ASCs. In this study, human cells from adipose tissue were isolated, cultured, and sorted according to CD105 expression. The sorted cells were then subjected to adipogenic, osteogenic, and chondrogenic induction to confirm their multi-potentiality. In adipogenic conditions, CD105- cells showed stronger Oil Red staining and higher expression of adipose-specific genes compared to CD105+ cells. By contrast, CD105+ cells exhibited better osteogenic potential with stronger Alizarin Red staining and higher expression of osteogenic specific genes than CD105- cells. Noticeably, CD105+ cells also exhibited a much stronger chondrogenic potential than CD105- cells, with stronger collagen II staining and higher gene expression of collagen II and aggrecan. Most importantly, CD105+ cells could form a homogeneous cartilage-like tissue when seeded into a biodegradable scaffold and cultured in chondrogenic media for 8 weeks. These results indicate that sorting of ASC subpopulation with CD105 as a marker may allow better in vitro chondrogenesis and thus provide an important implications for cartilage regeneration and reconstruction using autologous cells from adipose tissue.

A comparative proteomic approach was carried out to investigate anthocyanin biosynthesis in the tuberous roots of yellow sweet potato (YSP) and purple sweet potato (PSP) cultivars. More than 800 proteins were reproducibly detected through two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE), of which 50 proteins with 39 more and 11 less accumulated in PSP were identified through matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight/time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF/TOF-MS). Most of the analyzed proteins are annotated to be involved in starch metabolism and glycolysis. The more abundant starch phosphorylase (SP) and phosphoglucomutase (PGM) in PSP promoted the synthesis of precursors for anthocyanin synthesis. The results implied that starch degradation provided abundant substrates for anthocyanin biosynthesis in tuberous roots of PSP. 24kDa vacuolar protein (VP24) is related to anthocyanin transport and accumulation in vacuoles. Vacuole-associated annexin protein, VCaB42, is correlated with tonoplast biogenesis. Synergistic action of the two proteins is probably involved in the microautophagy and the intravacuolar trapping of anthocyanins. Interestingly, both VCaB42 and VP24 were more accumulated in PSP, suggesting that anthocyanins generated in the cytosol were transported into and became stored in the vacuoles of PSP. The present study provides new insights into the mechanism of tuberous root-specific anthocyanin accumulation in PSP.Sweet potato ranks as the seventh most important crop worldwide. Purple sweet potato, a special sweet potato cultivar, has been extensively investigated because large amounts of anthocyanin accumulate in its tuberous roots. Anthocyanin is well known for its free radical-scavenging activity and beneficial effects on human health. Its biosynthetic pathway has been well characterized in model plants. Although large-scale systematic studies have been performed to identify the proteins present in sweet potato, information on the regulation of anthocyanin synthesis in sweet potato is insufficient. Our proteome study demonstrated that starch degradation may contribute to anthocyanin accumulation in purple sweet potato. To our knowledge, this study is the first to propose that starch degradation may provide precursors of anthocyanin biosynthesis in sweet potato.

The halophilic mangrove species Kandelia candel is an excellent model for understanding why halophytes thrive in high salinity. Preliminary transcriptomic analyses revealed that genes involved in diverse functions, such as in phenylpropanoid and amino acid metabolisms, and those in DNA replication and damage repair were highly responsive to salt stress. Proteomic analyses revealed that the proteins involved in light reaction of photosynthesis, amino acid and carbohydrate metabolisms, secondary metabolite biosynthesis and posttranslational modification showed increased levels in response to salt stress. The metabolisms of phenylpropanoids and amino acids under salt stress were systematically examined based on the preliminary omics analyses. The activities of phenylpropanoid biosynthetic enzymes and the contents of phenols, flavonoids, anthocyanins and lignins were significantly increased under salt stress. In the free amino acid pool, glutamate was the most abundant. Together with γ-aminobutyric acid, glutamate levels further increased, while proline levels remained unchanged in response to salt stress. These findings point to the potential importance of phenylpropanoids and free amino acids in salt tolerance of K. candel that have been observed, but not systemically investigated at the levels of gene expression, enzyme activity and metabolite accumulation in glycophytes and non-tree halophytes.

Dog-ear, or standing cone deformity, is a common problem during surgical procedures. Multiple methods have been reported to correct the deformity but most create long scars or excessive normal skin loss. We designed a simple and convenient procedure to remove small- and medium-sized skin defects. Based on mathematical calculations, the procedure is an easily designed surgical technique. All of our patients healed uneventfully with no significant complications. The procedure not only resulted in a shortened surgical incision and preserved a greater amount of healthy skin, but also left a simple “S-shaped” curvilinear scar with favorable esthetic outcomes. This novel modified S-plasty is a simple tool to successfully remove skin defects, with a low deformity risk. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

The present study aimed to investigate the feasibility of isolating adipose-derived stem cells (ADSCs) by selecting cells that express the surface receptor CD105. Surface antigen expression of the unsorted cells was undertaken using FACS analysis. Primary adipose-derived cells were isolated. The second passage cells were incubated with anti-CD105 magnetic beads, and separated using a magnetic separator. Cell growth and colony formation was determined by counting and Giemsa staining, respectively. Cells also underwent histological immunohistochemical, and RT-PCR analyses to determine their chondrogenic, adipogenic and osteogenic potential. Increased cell proliferation and colony formation was observed in CD105-positive (CD105⁺) as compared to the CD105-negative (CD105⁻) cells (P

For the flight information at a large aeronautic hub, we utilized star-shaped structure, designed and created a data warehouse, obtained the data about flight delay for data warehouse from the original data through ETL process, completed the preprocessing and loading data, created OLAP data cube for slicing and drilling, provided a decision support for the airport management staff of flight operation. In the final statements, we created delay drill-down report by quarter.

Flight delay is the most prominent problem in the field of an airport to circulate to manage in recent years. In order to make a comparative accurate forecast of the flight delay situation, this paper gives an improved Markov model by adding the system with a weight Adjustment. By using the optimization method, we compute state transition probability matrix, analyze the data from the capital airport, and forecast the probability of the departure flights in all the delaying time section. The probability of flight delay is divided into five levels. For each level we make a forecast with one day data chosen from the airport. The warning method for airport flight delay forecasting makes use of time fragmenting technique by an interval of 20 minutes. Simulation experiment gives out error analysis. And the comparison with delay probability getting from the practical data indicates that the forecast effect is ideal. It has good application value in the practical application.