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Propagation of interplanetary (IP) shocks, particularly those driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is still an outstanding question in heliophysics and space weather forecasting. Here we address effects of the ambient solar wind on the propagation of two similar CME-driven shocks from the Sun to Earth. The two shock events (CME03: April 3, 2010 and CME12: July 12, 2012) have the following properties: Both events (1) were driven by a halo CME (i.e., source location is near the Sun-Earth line), (2) had a CME source in the southern hemisphere, (3) had a similar transit time (~2 days) to Earth, (4) occurred in a non-quiet solar period, and (5) led to a severe geomagnetic storm. The initial (near the Sun) propagation speed, as measured by coronagraph images, was slower (by ~300 km/s) for CME03 than CME12, but it took about the same amount of traveling time for both events to reach Earth. According to the in-situ solar wind observations from the Wind spacecraft, the CME03-driven shock was associated with a faster solar wind upstream of the shock than the CME12-driven shock. This is also demonstrated in our global MHD simulations. Analysis of our simulation result indicates that the drag force indirectly plays an important role in the shock propagation. The present study suggests that in addition to the initial CME propagation speed near the Sun the shock speed (in the inertial frame) and the ambient solar wind condition, in particular the solar wind speed, are the key to timing the arrival of CME-driven-shock events., Comment: in press

Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models play an important role in the infrastructure of space weather forecasting. Validating such models commonly utilizes in situ solar wind measurements made near the orbit of the Earth. The purpose of this study is to test the performance of G3DMHD (a data driven, time-dependent, 3-D MHD model of the solar wind) with Parker Solar Probe (PSP) measurements. Since its launch in August 2018, PSP has traversed the inner heliosphere at different radial distances sunward of the Earth (the closest approach ~13.3 solar radii), thus providing a good opportunity to study evolution of the solar wind and to validate heliospheric models of the solar wind. The G3DMHD model simulation is driven by a sequence of maps of photospheric field extrapolated to the assumed source surface (2.5 Rs) using the potential field model from 2018 to 2022, which covers the first 15 PSP orbits. The Pearson correlation coefficient (cc) and the mean absolute squared error (MASE) are used as the metrics to evaluate the model performance. It is found that the model performs better for both magnetic intensity (cc = 0.75; MASE = 0.60) and the solar wind density (cc = 0.73; MASE = 0.50) than for the solar wind speed (cc = 0.15; MASE = 1.29) and temperature (cc = 0.28; MASE = 1.14). This is due primarily to lack of accurate boundary conditions. The well-known underestimate of the magnetic field in solar minimum years is also present. Assuming that the radial magnetic field becomes uniformly distributed with latitude at or below 18 Rs (the inner boundary of the computation do-main), the agreement in the magnetic intensity significantly improves (cc = 0.83; MASE = 0.49)., Comment: in press

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their driven shocks are a major source of large geomagnetic storms due to their large and long-lasting, southward component of magnetic field in the sheath and the flux rope (e.g., magnetic cloud). Predicting the strength and arrival time of southward fields accurately thus plays a key role in space weather predictions. To address this problem, we have developed a new model, which combines the global three-dimensional, time-dependent, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD), data-driven model (G3DMHD) and a self-contained magnetic flux-rope model [1]. As a demonstration and validation, here we simulate the evolution of a Sun-Earth-directed CME that erupted on 2012-July-12. The computational domain spans from 2.5 solar radii (Rs) from the surface of the Sun, where the flux rope is injected, to 245 Rs. We compare the time profiles of the simulated MHD parameters (Density, velocity, temperature, and magnetic field) with in situ solar wind observations acquired at ~1 AU by the Wind spacecraft and the result is encouraging. The model successfully reproduces the shock, sheath, and flux rope similar to those observed by Wind., Comment: in press, Phys Astron Int J. 2024; 8(I):1-3.DOI:10.15406/paij.2024.08.00324

The solar wind speed plays a key role in the transport of CME out of the Sun and ultimately determines the arrival time of CME-driven shocks in the heliosphere. Here, we develop an empirical model of the solar wind parameters at the inner boundary (18 solar radii, Rs) used in our global, 3D MHD model (G3DMHD) or other equivalent ones. The model takes solar magnetic field maps at 2.5 Rs (which is based on the Potential Field Source Surface, PFSS model) and interpolates the solar wind plasma and field out to 18 Rs using the algorithm of Wang and Sheeley [1990a]. A formula V_{18Rs} = V1 + V2 fs^{\alpha} is used to calculate the solar wind speed at 18 Rs, where V1 is in a range of 150-350 km/s, V2 is in the range of 250-500 km/s, and fs is an expansion factor, which was derived from the Wang and Sheeley (WS) algorithm at 2.5 Rs. To estimate the solar wind density and temperature at 18 Rs, we assume an incompressible solar wind and a constant total pressure. The three free parameters are obtained by adjusting simulation results to match in-situ observations (Wind) for more than 54 combination of V1, V2 and {\alpha} during a quiet solar wind interval, CR2082. We found V18Rs = (150 +/- 50) + (500 +/- 100) fs^-0.4 km/s performs reasonably well in predicting solar wind parameters at 1 AU not just for CR 2082 but other quiet solar period. Comparing results from the present study with those from WSA [Arge et al. 2000; 2004] we conclude that i) Results of using V_{18Rs} with the full rotation data (FR) as input to drive G3DMHD model is better than the results of WSA using FR, or daily updated. ii) When using a modified daily updated 4-day-advanced solar wind speed predictions WSA performs slightly better than our G3DMHD. iii) When using V_{18Rs} as input, G3DMHD model performs much better than the WSA formula. We argue the necessity of the extra angular width ({\theta}b) parameter used in WSA.

We identify coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with magnetic clouds (MCs) observed near Earth by the Wind spacecraft from 2008 to mid-2012, a time period when the two STEREO spacecraft were well positioned to study Earth-directed CMEs. We find 31 out of 48 Wind MCs during this period can be clearly connected with a CME that is trackable in STEREO imagery all the way from the Sun to near 1 AU. For these events, we perform full 3-D reconstructions of the CME structure and kinematics, assuming a flux rope morphology for the CME shape, considering the full complement of STEREO and SOHO imaging constraints. We find that the flux rope orientations and sizes inferred from imaging are not well correlated with MC orientations and sizes inferred from the Wind data. However, velocities within the MC region are reproduced reasonably well by the image-based reconstruction. Our kinematic measurements are used to provide simple prescriptions for predicting CME arrival times at Earth, provided for a range of distances from the Sun where CME velocity measurements might be made. Finally, we discuss the differences in the morphology and kinematics of CME flux ropes associated with different surface phenomena (flares, filament eruptions, or no surface activity)., Comment: 32 pages, 11 figures, to appear in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement