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This study identifies seasonally-reversed trends in Kuroshio strength and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the western North Pacific (WNP) since the 1990s, specifically in the 22° N-28° N region. These trends are characterized by increases during summer and decreases during winter. The seasonally-reversed trends are a result of the asymmetric responses of the WNP to a shift towards the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) around the same period. The positive AMO induces an anomalous descent over the North Pacific during summer, leading to the direct strengthening of the gyre. However, during winter, it triggers an anomalous descent over the tropical Pacific, which excites a poleward wavetrain impacting the WNP and causing gyre weakening. The associated responses of the East Asian monsoon and China Coastal Current contribute to the observed seasonally-reversed SST trends. It is noteworthy that the seasonally-reversed trends in gyre strength and SSTs are predominantly observed north of 20° N in the WNP. This limitation arises because the anomalous cyclone within the winter poleward wavetrain is located north of this latitude boundary. Specifically, the clearest trends in gyre strength are observed in the northern segment of the Kuroshio, while the manifestation of SST trends in the Taiwan Strait could potentially be attributed to the influence and enhancement of the East Asian monsoon and the China Coastal Current. Due to the limited length of observational data, statistical significance of some of the signals discussed is rather limited. A CESM1 pacemaker experiments is further conducted to confirm the asymmetric responses of the North Pacific to the AMO between the summer and winter seasons.

Long-term reanalysis data were used to assess inter-decadal to decadal modulations of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation in the Pacific after the early 1990s. The wind stress curl anomaly (WSCA) in the region of 10° N-15° N and 160° E-170° E (C-BOX) had been found to excite Rossby waves and control NEC bifurcation along the Philippine coast. Our analysis revealed that the WSCA in the C-BOX has been remotely modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) since the early 1990s. It is shown that the SAM shifted to its positive phase at this transition and began strongly impacting the WSCA in the C-BOX and the NEC bifurcation. During the positive SAM phase after the early 1990s, strong climate variability occurred in the tropical to subtropical area of the North Pacific, with a clear footprint connected to the Antarctic region. Consistent with that finding, we determined that during the positive SAM phase, a dipole sea surface temperature pattern was generated in the South Pacific; this induced an atmospheric Rossby wave train in upper-level wind shear that propagated northward to the North Pacific. Such effects further enhanced downward motion and divergence at the surface, intensifying the easterlies in the equatorial area and the anticyclonic WSCA in the C-BOX. The anticyclonic WSCA in the C-BOX substantially excited downwelling oceanic Rossby waves at the surface, inducing an equatorward trend of NEC bifurcation after the early 1990s.

Applying statistical analyses to reanalysis products during the period 1900–2018, this study finds the 11-year solar cycle to have a significant correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Northeastern Pacific. The solar influence is first manifested and amplified in the lower stratosphere, which then alters the strength of Hadley circulation in the troposphere. Lastly, the changes in the sinking branch of the Hadley circulation modulate surface heat fluxes to give rise to the SST footprint. The footprint has a structure similar to that of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) that is known to be an important trigger of the central Pacific (CP) type of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The 11-year solar cycle is thus shown to contribute to the slow modulation of the CP ENSO and, in particular, to be associated with more CP El Niño (La Niña) events during the active (inactive) phase of the cycle.

The variability in rainfall amounts in India draws much attention because it strongly influences the country's ecological and social systems. Indian rainfall is associated with climate factors, including El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Here we identified the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere, as the ultimate forcing leading to decadal changes in Indian rainfall. Through statistical analyses using observational data covering the period from 1979 to 2015, we show an increase in the decadal rainfall amount in the early 1990s over the Indian region. Examining atmospheric environmental conditions, we demonstrate that conditions have become more favorable over the past few decades. Specifically, during the positive SAM phase since the early 1990s, changes in the atmospheric fields have evoked anomalous vertical motion over the continent and the Indian Ocean, enhancing the southerly cross-equatorial flow by increased land-sea thermal contrast, thereby increasing decadal rainfall in the region.

Interbasin interactions have been increasingly emphasized in recent years due to their roles in shaping climate trends and the global warming hiatus in the northern hemisphere. The profound influence from the North Atlantic on the Tropical Pacific has been a primary focus. In this study, we conducted observational analyses and numerical modeling experiments to show that the North Atlantic has also strongly influenced the Extratropical North Pacific. A rapid and synchronous change in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations was observed in the North Pacific during the late 1990s. The change was driven by the transbasin influence from the Atlantic Ocean. During the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) since the 1990s, the anomalously warm North Atlantic triggers a series of zonally symmetric and asymmetric transbasin teleconnections involving the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Walker and Hadley circulations, and Rossby wave propagation that lead to a decrease in wind stress curls over the Pacific subtropics, resulting in an abrupt weakening in the North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPSG) and the Kuroshio Current.

Extraordinarily poor recruitment of Japanese eels in East Asia has been generally reported during extreme El Niño years. However, the scenario failed to take place during the 2015-16 extreme event. In this study, we examined possible factors responsible for differing eel abundance in East Asia during the two strongest recent extreme El Niños, which occurred in 1997-98 and 2015-16. Numerical tracer experiments were carried out to determine why the impacts on eel catches seen in 1997-98 were not repeated in 2015-16. Among physical factors, two scenarios are likely responsible for extremely poor recruitment in East Asia: southward migration of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) or southward movement of eel spawning grounds. Comparing the latitudinal shift of NEC locations between the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niños, we conclude that NEC migration may be a factor, but is not chiefly responsible, for lower eel catches. Our findings pointed to southward movement of spawning grounds as the dominant factor. The northward movement of spawning grounds during 2015-16 meant that eel larvae were preferentially transported into the NEC-Kuroshio system, which resulted in a higher rate of recruitment success. The distinct evolution and dynamics of these two El Niño events led to different spawning ground locations, impacting eel abundance in East Asian countries.

Satellite data and assimilation products are used to investigate fluctuations in the catch of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) in eastern Asian countries. It has been reported that the salinity front has extended farther south, which has shifted the eels spawning grounds to a lower latitude, resulting in smaller eel catches in 1983, 1992, and 1998. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the eel catch is strongly correlated with the combination mode (C-mode), but not with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These eels continue to spawn within the North Equatorial Current (NEC), but the salinity front shifts south during a canonical El Niño. On the other hand, the spawning grounds accompanied by the salinity front extend farther south during the C-mode of climate variability, and eel larvae fail to join the nursery in the NEC, resulting in extremely poor recruitment in East Asia. We propose an appropriate sea surface temperature index to project Japanese eel larval catch.

This paper uses more than 5000 colocated and near-coincident in-situ profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Program database spanning over the period from 2002 to 2005 to systematically validate the satellite-altimetry-derived upper ocean thermal structure in the western North Pacific ocean as such ocean thermal structure information is critical in typhoon-intensity change. It is found that this satellite-derived information is applicable in the central and the southwestern North Pacific (covering 122-170[degrees]E, 9-25[degrees]N) but not in the northern part (130-170[degrees]E, 25-40[degrees]N). However, since > 80% of the typhoons are found to intensify in the central and southern part, this regional dependence should not pose a serious constraint in studying typhoon intensification. Further comparison with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory's North Pacific Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System (NPACNFS) hydrodynamic ocean model shows similar regional applicability, but NPACNFS is found to have a general underestimation in the upper ocean thermal structure and causes a large underestimation of the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) by up to 60 kJ/[cm.sup.2]. After validation, the derived upper ocean thermal profiles are used to study the intensity change of supertyphoon Dianmu (2004). It is found that two upper ocean parameters, i.e., a typhoon's self-induced cooling and the during-typhoon TCHP, are the most sensitive parameters (with [R.sup.2] ~ 0.7) to the 6-h intensity change of Dianmu during the study period covering Dianmu's rapid intensification to category 5 and its subsequent decay to category 4. This paper suggests the usefulness of satellite-based upper ocean thermal information in future research and operation that is related to typhoon-intensity change in the western North Pacific. Index Terms--Altimetry, typhoon, upper ocean thermal structure. Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TGRS.2007.895950