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Physics-based electrochemical battery models derived from porous electrode theory are a very powerful tool for understanding lithium-ion batteries, as well as for improving their design and management. Different model fidelity, and thus model complexity, is needed for different applications. For example, in battery design we can afford longer computational times and the use of powerful computers, while for real-time battery control (e.g. in electric vehicles) we need to perform very fast calculations using simple devices. For this reason, simplified models that retain most of the features at a lower computational cost are widely used. Even though in the literature we often find these simplified models posed independently, leading to inconsistencies between models, they can actually be derived from more complicated models using a unified and systematic framework. In this review, we showcase this reductive framework, starting from a high-fidelity microscale model and reducing it all the way down to the Single Particle Model (SPM), deriving in the process other common models, such as the Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) model. We also provide a critical discussion on the advantages and shortcomings of each of the models, which can aid model selection for a particular application. Finally, we provide an overview of possible extensions to the models, with a special focus on thermal models. Any of these extensions could be incorporated into the microscale model and the reductive framework re-applied to lead to a new generation of simplified, multi-physics models., Comment: 50 pages, 9 figures

Predicting lithium-ion battery degradation is worth billions to the global automotive, aviation and energy storage industries, to improve performance and safety and reduce warranty liabilities. However, very few published models of battery degradation explicitly consider the interactions between more than two degradation mechanisms, and none do so within a single electrode. In this paper, the first published attempt to directly couple more than two degradation mechanisms in the negative electrode is reported. The results are used to map different pathways through the complicated path dependent and non-linear degradation space. Four degradation mechanisms are coupled in PyBaMM, an open source modelling environment uniquely developed to allow new physics to be implemented and explored quickly and easily. Crucially it is possible to see 'inside' the model and observe the consequences of the different patterns of degradation, such as loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. For the same cell, five different pathways that can result in end-of-life have already been found, depending on how the cell is used. Such information would enable a product designer to either extend life or predict life based upon the usage pattern. However, parameterization of the degradation models remains as a major challenge, and requires the attention of the international battery community., Comment: First version submitted to Energy and Environmental Science on 15th November 2021. Second version submitted to Physical Chemistry: Chemical Physics on 25th January 2022

AIMS. This study compared the performance of deep learning extensions of survival analysis models with traditional Cox proportional hazards (CPH) models for deriving cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equations in national health administrative datasets. METHODS. Using individual person linkage of multiple administrative datasets, we constructed a cohort of all New Zealand residents aged 30-74 years who interacted with publicly funded health services during 2012, and identified hospitalisations and deaths from CVD over five years of follow-up. After excluding people with prior CVD or heart failure, sex-specific deep learning and CPH models were developed to estimate the risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events within five years. The proportion of explained time-to-event occurrence, calibration, and discrimination were compared between models across the whole study population and in specific risk groups. FINDINGS. First CVD events occurred in 61,927 of 2,164,872 people. Among diagnoses and procedures, the largest 'local' hazard ratios were associated by the deep learning models with tobacco use in women (2.04, 95%CI: 1.99-2.10) and with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute lower respiratory infection in men (1.56, 95%CI: 1.50-1.62). Other identified predictors (e.g. hypertension, chest pain, diabetes) aligned with current knowledge about CVD risk predictors. The deep learning models significantly outperformed the CPH models on the basis of proportion of explained time-to-event occurrence (Royston and Sauerbrei's R-squared: 0.468 vs. 0.425 in women and 0.383 vs. 0.348 in men), calibration, and discrimination (all p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION. Deep learning extensions of survival analysis models can be applied to large health administrative databases to derive interpretable CVD risk prediction equations that are more accurate than traditional CPH models.