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The stratosphere can be a source of predictability for surface weather on timescales of several weeks to months. However, the potential predictive skill gained from stratospheric variability can be limited by biases in the representation of stratospheric processes and the coupling of the stratosphere with surface climate in forecast systems. This study provides a first systematic identification of model biases in the stratosphere across a wide range of subseasonal forecast systems. It is found that many of the forecast systems considered exhibit warm global-mean temperature biases from the lower to middle stratosphere, too strong/cold wintertime polar vortices, and too cold extratropical upper-troposphere/lowerstratosphere regions. Furthermore, tropical stratospheric anomalies associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation tend to decay toward each system¿s climatology with lead time. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), most systems do not capture the seasonal cycle of extreme-vortex-event probabilities, with an underestimation of sudden stratospheric warming events and an overestimation of strong vortex events in January. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), springtime interannual variability in the polar vortex is generally underestimated, but the timing of the final breakdown of the polar vortex often happens too early in many of the prediction systems. These stratospheric biases tend to be considerably worse in systems with lower model lid heights. In both hemispheres, most systems with low-top atmospheric models also consistently underestimate the upward wave driving that affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. We expect that the biases identified here will help guide model development for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast systems and further our understanding of the role of the stratosphere in predictive skill in the troposphere.

Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) play an important role in atmospheric dynamics but accurately representing them in general circulation models (GCMs) is challenging. This is especially true for orographic GWs generated by wind flow over small mountainous islands in the Southern Ocean. Currently, these islands lie in the “grey zone” of global model resolution, where they are neither fully resolved nor fully parameterised. It is expected that as GCMs approach the spatial resolution of current high-resolution local-area models, small-island GW sources may be resolved without the need for parameterisations. But how realistic are the resolved GWs in these high-resolution simulations compared to observations? Here, we test a high-resolution (1.5 km horizontal grid, 118 vertical levels) local-area configuration of the Met Office Unified Model over the mountainous island of South Georgia (54∘ S, 36∘ W), running without GW parameterisations. The island's orography is well resolved in the model, and real-time boundary conditions are used for two time periods during July 2013 and June–July 2015. We compare simulated GWs in the model to coincident 3-D satellite observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board Aqua. By carefully sampling the model using the AIRS resolution and measurement footprints (denoted as model sampled as AIRS hereafter), we present the first like-for-like comparison of simulated and observed 3-D GW amplitudes, wavelengths and directional GW momentum flux (GWMF) over the island using a 3-D S-transform method. We find that the timing, magnitude and direction of simulated GWMF over South Georgia are in good general agreement with observations, once the AIRS sampling and resolution are applied to the model. Area-averaged zonal GWMF during these 2 months is westward at around 5.3 and 5.6 mPa in AIRS and model sampled as AIRS datasets respectively, but values directly over the island can exceed 50 mPa. However, up to 35 % of the total GWMF in A

Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) are key drivers of the atmospheric circulation, but their representation in general circulation models (GCMs) is challenging, leading to significant biases in middle atmospheric circulations. Unresolved GW momentum transport in GCMs must be parameterised, but global directional GW observations are needed to constrain this. Here we present an 18‐year climatology of directional stratospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) from global AIRS/Aqua 3‐D satellite observations during 2002 to 2019. Striking hemispheric asymmetries are found at high latitudes, including dramatic reductions and reversals of GWMF during sudden stratospheric warmings. During southern hemisphere winter, a lateral convergence of GWMF towards 60°S is found that has no northern hemisphere counterpart. In the tropics, we find that zonal GWMF in AIRS measurements is strongly modulated by the semi‐annual oscillation (SAO) but not the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Our results provide guidance for future GW parameterisations needed to resolve long‐standing biases in GCMs.

Satellite observations show that there is a wintertime hotspot of gravity wave activity, located mainly over the ocean, around 60°S in the stratosphere However, the sources of the gravity waves making up this hotspot are varied, complex and remain unclear. Here we use radiosonde observations from 11 Antarctic stations, and selected small islands close to 60°S to examine the horizontal directional pseudo‐momentum flux and energy density distributions of upward propagating gravity waves in the lower stratosphere. This paper shows, for the first time, that short vertical wavelength gravity waves in the lower stratosphere clearly propagate meridionally towards 60°S during the winter months. This result supports previous studies that show that this belt of gravity wave activity over the ocean is contributed to by wave sources outside 60°S.

New observations at South Georgia (an extremely intense source of gravity waves) are used to evaluate model simulations of gravity waves and wakes, paving the way for improved understanding of these important phenomena. Gravity waves (GWs) play an important role in many atmospheric processes. However, the observations-based understanding of GWs is limited, and representing them in numerical models is difficult. Recent studies show that small islands can be intense sources of GWs, with climatologically significant effects on the atmospheric circulation. South Georgia, in the South Atlantic, is a notable source of such “small island” waves. GWs are usually too small scale to be resolved by current models, so their effects are represented approximately using resolved model fields (“parametrization”). However, the “small island” waves are not well represented by such parametrizations and the explicit representation of GWs in very high resolution models is still in its infancy. Steep islands such as South Georgia are also known to generate low-level wakes, affecting the flow hundreds of kilometers downwind. These wakes are also poorly represented in models. We present results from the South Georgia Wave Experiment (SG-WEX) for 05 July 2015. Analysis of GWs from satellite observations are augmented by radiosonde observations made from South Georgia. Simulations were also made using high-resolution configurations of the Met Office Unified Model (UM). Comparison with observations indicates that the UM performs well for this case, with realistic representation of GW patterns and low-level wakes. Examination of a longer period simulation suggests that the wakes generally are well represented by the model. The realism of these simulations suggests they can be used to develop parametrizations for use at coarser model resolutions.

Background: Prediction of outcome after stroke is important for triage decisions, prognostic estimates for family and for appropriate resource utilization. Prognostication must be timely and simply applied. Several scales have shown good prognostic value. In Calgary, the Orpington Prognostic Score (OPS) has been used to predict outcome as an aid to rehabilitation triage. However, the OPS has not been assessed at one week for predictive capability. Methods: Among patients admitted to a sub-acute stroke unit, OPS from the first week were examined to determine if any correlation existed between final disposition after rehabilitation and first week score. The predictive validity of the OPS at one week was compared to National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at 24 hours using logistic regression and receiver operator characteristics analysis. The primary outcome was final disposition after discharge from the stroke unit if the patient went directly home, or died, or from the inpatient rehabilitation unit. Results: The first week OPS was highly predictive of final disposition. However, no major advantage in using the first week OPS was observed when compared to 24h NIHSS score. Both scales were equally predictive of final disposition of stroke patients, post rehabilitation. Conclusion: The first week OPS can be used to predict final outcome. The NIHSS at 24h provides the same prognostic information.

Numerous murine models of polycystic kidney disease (PKD) have been described. While mouse models are particularly well suited for investigating the molecular pathogenesis of PKD, rats are well established as an experimental model of renal physiologic processes. Han:SPRD-CY: rats have been proposed as a model for human autosomal dominant PKD. A new spontaneous rat mutation, designated wpk, has now been identified. In the mutants, the renal cystic phenotype resembles human autosomal recessive PKD (ARPKD). This study was designed to characterize the clinical and histopathologic features of wpk/wpk mutants and to map the wpk locus. Homozygous mutants developed nephromegaly, hypertension, proteinuria, impaired urine-concentrating capacity, and uremia, resulting in death at 4 wk of age. Early cysts were present in the nephrogenic zone at embryonic day 19. These were localized, by specific staining and electron microscopy, to differentiated proximal tubules, thick limbs, distal tubules, and collecting ducts. In later stages, the cysts were largely confined to collecting ducts. Although the renal histopathologic features are strikingly similar to those of human ARPKD, wpk/wpk mutants exhibited no evidence of biliary tract abnormalities. The wpk locus maps just proximal to the CY: locus on rat chromosome 5, and complementation studies demonstrated that these loci are not allelic. It is concluded that the clinical and renal histopathologic features of this new rat model strongly resemble those of human ARPKD. Although homology mapping indicates that rat wpk and human ARPKD involve distinct genes, this new rat mutation provides an excellent experimental model to study the molecular pathogenesis and renal pathophysiologic features of recessive PKD.