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Recent events, including COVID‐19, extreme floods, and explosion accidents, commonly induced localized closures and disruptions of urban road networks (URNs), resulting in significant impacts on human mobility and socio‐economic activities. Existing studies on URN resilience to those events mainly took few cases for empirical studies, limiting our understanding on the URN resilience patterns across different cities. By conducting a large‐scale nationwide resilience analysis of URNs in 363 cities in mainland China, this study attempts to uncover the resilience patterns of URNs against the worst‐case single (SLDs) and multiple localized disruptions (MLDs). Results show that the distance from the worst‐case SLD to the city center would be less than 5 km in 62.3% cities, as opposed to more than 15 km in 14.3% cities. Moreover, the average road network resilience of cities in western China could be 7% and 13% smaller than that of the eastern cities under the worst‐case SLDs and MLDs, respectively. This inequality in the worst‐case resilience is partly attributable to variations in urban socio‐economic, infrastructure‐related, and topographic factors. These findings could inspire nationwide pre‐disaster mitigation strategies to cope with localized disruptions and help transfer insights for mitigation strategies against disruptive events across cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated pesticide exposure practices, and the potential health risks of drinking water and consuming fish from the cultivated wetlands of Ndop, Cameroon. Six hundred and twenty-six questionnaires were conveniently administered to farmers (≥ 26 years old) in a cross-sectional study to assess exposure practices and dietary risks. The Chi-square and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to establish relationships between variables. The PRIMET model was used to predict a worst-case dietary risk. The pesticide handling practices of 90% of farmers were inadequate. Chlorpyriphos, lambda-cyhalothrin, fipronil, and paraquat dichloride posed a possible dietary risk at recommended and applied doses, with chlorpyrifos having the highest exposure toxicity ratio (ETRdiet = 36.72). Paraquat dichloride, fipronil, and lambda-cyhalothrin posed a possible dietary risk at 26.3%, 58.3%, and 62.2% of their recommended concentrations, respectively. Remarkably, the dietary risk for cypermethrin was acceptable at 5.8 times its recommended dose (ETRdietR = 0.29). The significant positive correlation (p = 0.000) between PECfish and ETRdiet, suggests a possible health risk of consuming fish and drinking water harvested from the wetlands, thus the need for replacing pesticides posing possible risks at lower or recommended concentrations with less toxic alternatives and to train farmers on pesticide application practices. HIGHLIGHTS Most developing countries do not include dietary risk assessment in the pesticide authorization process because it is expensive.; The PRIMET model uses unsophisticated equipment to establish dietary risk in a worst-case scenario.; Many studies have explored the model to assess risk to aquatic life, terrestrial life, non-target organisms, and bees.; Limited data exist on its use in dietary risk assessment, and this research seeks to explore this.;

This study evaluated pesticide exposure practices, and the potential health risks of drinking water and consuming fish from the cultivated wetlands of Ndop, Cameroon. Six hundred and twenty-six questionnaires were conveniently administered to farmers (≥ 26 years old) in a cross-sectional study to assess exposure practices and dietary risks. The Chi-square and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to establish relationships between variables. The PRIMET model was used to predict a worst-case dietary risk. The pesticide handling practices of 90% of farmers were inadequate. Chlorpyriphos, lambda-cyhalothrin, fipronil, and paraquat dichloride posed a possible dietary risk at recommended and applied doses, with chlorpyrifos having the highest exposure toxicity ratio (ETRdiet = 36.72). Paraquat dichloride, fipronil, and lambda-cyhalothrin posed a possible dietary risk at 26.3%, 58.3%, and 62.2% of their recommended concentrations, respectively. Remarkably, the dietary risk for cypermethrin was acceptable at 5.8 times its recommended dose (ETRdietR = 0.29). The significant positive correlation (p = 0.000) between PECfish and ETRdiet, suggests a possible health risk of consuming fish and drinking water harvested from the wetlands, thus the need for replacing pesticides posing possible risks at lower or recommended concentrations with less toxic alternatives and to train farmers on pesticide application practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important goal of smart cities is to ensure city safety and reduce city risks. However, because the chemical industry park is often located interior and surroundings of a city, it is easy to induce explosions in case of natural disasters, causing serious losses. To investigate the possibility of explosion damage to other storage tanks in chemical industrial parks caused by tank explosions, the evolution process of tank explosion damage was studied, and an analysis method to determine the most unfavorable process was provided. This method is based on regional grid division and shock wave overpressure calculation to obtain the probability of damage at the grid location. Based on the system fault evolution process, the space fault network model was used to calculate the explosion damage evolution process of each storage tank, and the most unfavorable situation was finally determined. The paper assumes a positive linear relationship between the damage probability of the affected storage tank and the likelihood of explosion. The paper provides a calculation method for regional grid division, tank explosion overpressure, and damage probability. A mathematical model for the evolution process of tank explosion damage was constructed, and it is believed that the damage effects of tanks are a logical superposition. The results can provide a reference for controlling the explosion process in chemical industrial parks under the most unfavorable conditions and realize intelligent analysis and prediction of regional risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties of the power load, wind power, and photovoltaic power lead to errors between point prediction values and real values, which challenges the safe operation of distribution networks. In this paper, a robust reactive power scheduling (RRPS) model based on a modified bootstrap technique is proposed to consider the uncertainties of power loads and renewable energy sources. Firstly, a deterministic reactive power scheduling (DRPS) model and an RRPS model are formulated. Secondly, a modified bootstrap technique is proposed to estimate prediction errors of power loads and renewable energy sources without artificially assuming the probability density function of prediction errors. To represent all possible scenarios, point prediction values and prediction errors are combined to construct two worst-case scenarios in the RRPS model. Finally, the RRPS model is solved to find a scheduling scheme, which ensures the security of distribution networks for all possible scenarios in theory. Simulation results show that the worstcase scenarios constructed by the modified bootstrap technique outperform popular baselines. Besides, the RRPS model based on the modified bootstrap technique balances economics and security well.

Purpose: To compare peak and average intensities encountered during winning and losing game quarters in basketball players. Methods: Eight semiprofessional male basketball players (age = 23.1 [3.8] y) were monitored during all games (N = 18) over 1 competitive season. The average intensities attained in each quarter were determined using microsensors and heart-rate monitors to derive relative values (per minute) for the following variables: PlayerLoad, frequency of high-intensity and total accelerations, decelerations, changes of direction, jumps, and total inertial movement analysis events combined, as well as modified summated-heart-rate-zones workload. The peak intensities reached in each quarter were determined using microsensors and reported as PlayerLoad per minute over 15-second, 30-second, 1-minute, 2-minute, 3-minute, 4-minute, and 5-minute sample durations. Linear mixed models and effect sizes were used to compare intensity variables between winning and losing game quarters. Results: Nonsignificant (P >.05), unclear–small differences were evident between winning and losing game quarters in all variables. Conclusions: During winning and losing game quarters, peak and average intensities were similar. Consequently, factors other than the intensity of effort applied during games may underpin team success in individual game quarters and therefore warrant further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of magnetic metasurfaces in Wireless Power Transfer systems is becoming a popular research topic: they have proven to be a valid approach to increase the performances (in terms of power transfer) and improve the overall EMC properties in terms of field emissions. In this contribution, the authors investigate the susceptibility of such systems in case of an impinging Electromagnetic Interference (that might also be intentional), evaluating different parameters for a selected set of the system's components. In particular, the worst‐case scenarios of voltage peak, energy and sharpness (where appliable) at the transmitting and receiving ports and at each capacitor of the metasurface are calculated. The results obtained for a specific system practically implemented in the lab, show that the metasurface does not necessarily decreases susceptibility towards EMI and it can be itself the most critical component. The identification of the key and critical parameters allows us to provide an insight on how metamaterials used as shielding devices should be properly designed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantified average and peak external intensities of various basketball training drills. Thirteen youth male basketball players (age: 15.2 ± 0.3 years) were monitored (BioHarness-3 devices) to obtain average and peak external load per minute (EL ⋅-1; peak EL ⋅ min-1) during team-based training sessions. Researchers coded the training sessions by analysing the drill type (skills, 1vs1, 2vs2, 3vs0, 3vs3, 4vs0, 4vs4, 5vs5, 5vs5-scrimmage), court area per player, player's involvement in the drill (in percentage), playing positions (backcourt; frontcourt) and competition rotation status (starter; rotation; bench). Separate linear mixed models were run to assess the influence of training and individual constraints on average and peak EL ⋅ min-1. Drill type influenced average and peak EL ⋅ min-1 (p < 0.05), but with different directions of effects. EL ⋅ min-1 was higher in skills and 4vs0 drills, while higher peak EL ⋅ min-1 values were obtained in 5vs5 and 5vs5-scrimmage. Similarly, EL ⋅ min-1 was higher when involvement % increased (p = 0.001), while there was an opposite trend for peak EL ⋅ min-1 (lower with higher involvement %). Court area per player influenced peak (p = 0.025) but not average demands. No effects were found for playing position or competition rotation status (all p > 0.05), except for a moderately higher EL ⋅ min-1 in starters compared to bench players. The external load intensities of basketball training drills substantially vary depending on the load indicator chosen, the training content, and task and individual constraints. Practitioners should not interchangeably use average and peak external intensity indicators to design training but considering them as separate constructs could help to gain a better understanding of basketball training and competition demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To describe and compare the peak physical demands through the worst-case scenario method (WCS), according to different rolling average (RA) time epochs (i.e. 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min) and contextual variables in women soccer players. Methods: Using an observational-comparative study design, an elite women soccer team from the Spanish 1st league division was monitored during 27 matches. Nine WCS-dependent variables were assessed, including total distance (TD), high-speed running distance (HSR), sprint distance (SP), acceleration, and deceleration distance at different intensities by players position (i.e., central defenders [CD], wide defenders [WD], central midfielders [CM], wide midfielders [WM], forwards [F]), match half, location, and match outcome. Results: The 1-min RA showed the lowest variability (CV = 9.8–65.8%) for all nine dependent variables. The WD presented the highest TD (168 ± 15.71 m/min). Differences between positions were observed for: CM

Stock markets are flooded with various uncertainties such as stock market scenarios, especially the input parameters of stock portfolio models. It is hard for stock market investments to jointly deal with them. Although robust portfolio is the prevailing portfolio policy handling with uncertainties, it always focuses on the worst-case scenario of all the possible realizations of uncertain input parameters, resulting in the optimal portfolios considerably conservative as well as the portfolio performances very inferior. To this end, based on Markowitz's mean–variance (MV) model, this paper builds the new robust portfolio model (RMV-best) from the innovative perspective of best-case scenario, exactly contrary to the model based on the worst-case scenario (RMV-worst). Furthermore, stock market scenarios which always shift uncertainly show the periodic characteristics, and can be divided into three movement statuses: the bull, the bear and the steady. To verify the consistency of RMV-best, RMV-worst and MV portfolio policies over the different motion periods and identify the differences of these portfolio policies at various movement statuses, the mix data including two motion periods and three industry sectors is employed. Eventually, empirical results indicate that RMV-best is always the most favorable portfolio policy at the bull and the bear market, while MV can produce more profitable portfolios at the steady market over two motion periods. However, the drawbacks of RMV-worst are also confirmed in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) Background: The objective of this research was to analyse the most demanding passages (MDP) considering the sprint variable relative to the maximum level of sprint ability of each player as a function of player position, final outcome and part of the match during the competitive phase of a professional soccer season. (2) Methods: Global positioning system (GPS) data were collected from 22 players according to their playing position in the last 19 match days of the Spanish La Liga professional soccer in the 2020/2021 season. MDP were calculated from 80% of the maximum sprint speed of each player. (3) Results: Wide midfielders covered the greatest distance at >80% of the maximum speed (2.4 ± 1.63 seg) and the longest duration (21.91 ± 13.35 m) in their MDP. When the whole team was losing, it demonstrated greater distances (20.23 ± 13.04 m) and longer durations (2.24 ± 1.58 seg) compared to games in which it was winning. When the team ended up drawing, the relative sprint distance covered in the second half was significantly greater than in the first (16.12 ± 21.02; SD = 0.26 ± 0.28 (−0.03/−0.54). (4) Conclusions: Different demands of MDP, according to the sprint variable relative to the maximum individual capacity in competition, are required when contextual game factors are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantified average and peak external intensities of various basketball training drills. Thirteen youth male basketball players (age: 15.2±0.3 years) were monitored (BioHarness-3 devices) to obtain average and peak external load per minute (EL·min−1; peak EL·min−1) during team-based training sessions. Researchers coded the training sessions by analysing the drill type (skills, 1vs1, 2vs2, 3vs0, 3vs3, 4vs0, 4vs4, 5vs5, 5vs5-scrimmage), court area per player, player’s involvement in the drill (in percentage), playing positions (backcourt; frontcourt) and competition rotation status (starter; rotation; bench). Separate linear mixed models were run to assess the influence of training and individual constraints on average and peak EL·min−1. Drill type influenced average and peak EL·min−1 (p 0.05), except for a moderately higher EL·min−1 in starters compared to bench players. The external load intensities of basketball training drills substantially vary depending on the load indicator chosen, the training content, and task and individual constraints. Practitioners should not interchangeably use average and peak external intensity indicators to design training but considering them as separate constructs could help to gain a better understanding of basketball training and competition demands.

This study analysed the periods in which the most demanding passages (MDP) of play occurred during professional soccer matches, considering different criterion variables and investigating the effect that the playing position had on the MDP-of-play occurrence for each criterion variable. The MDP of play were calculated based on five criterion variables: distance covered (DIS), sprinting distance (SPD), high-metabolic load distance (HMLD), and the total of high-intensity accelerations and decelerations (ACCHIGH and DECHIGH). The results showed that the first period of the match (0ʹ-15ʹ) was the interval with the highest frequency (i.e., the greatest % of cases) in which the players achieved the MDP of play for all the variables (DIS= 38.9%; SPD= 28.4%; HMLD= 37.7%; ACCHIGH= 54.3%; DECHIGH= 48.8%). The playing position had no significant effect on MDP-of-play occurrence in any variable (likelihood ratio, LR= 15.88–32.05; p > 0.05; effect size, ES= 0.01–0.04), except for the DIS covered (LR= 32.05; p= 0.04; ES= 0.05), in which the most frequent MDP for the full backs occurred within the second period of the match (15ʹ-30ʹ). In conclusion, the first periods of the matches usually elicited the MDP of play and these periods need to be trained to prevent injuries and optimize performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events, including COVID-19, extreme floods, and explosion accidents, commonly induced localized closures and disruptions of urban road networks (URNs), resulting in significant impacts on human mobility and socio-economic activities. Existing studies on URN resilience to those events mainly took few cases for empirical studies, limiting our understanding on the URN resilience patterns across different cities. By conducting a large-scale nationwide resilience analysis of URNs in 363 cities in mainland China, this study attempts to uncover the resilience patterns of URNs against the worst-case single (SLDs) and multiple localized disruptions (MLDs). Results show that the distance from the worst-case SLD to the city center would be less than 5 km in 62.3% cities, as opposed to more than 15 km in 14.3% cities. Moreover, the average road network resilience of cities in western China could be 7% and 13% smaller than that of the eastern cities under the worst-case SLDs and MLDs, respectively. This inequality in the worst-case resilience is partly attributable to variations in urban socio-economic, infrastructure-related, and topographic factors. These findings could inspire nationwide pre-disaster mitigation strategies to cope with localized disruptions and help transfer insights for mitigation strategies against disruptive events across cities., (© 2023 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Against increasing number of unprecedented heavy rains and typhoons reflecting climate change, the Japanese Government decided saving life as the top priority considering a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Accordingly, the Flood Risk Management Act was amended in 2015 to use the anticipated maximum scale precipitation (AMSP) for flood inundation calculation. In order to estimate the AMSP, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) chose historical maximum areal precipitation in the form of duration–area–depth (DAD) curves rather than climate change projections' dataset d4PDF. In this paper, policy development and detailed estimation procedures for the AMSP were reviewed and discussed. It was concluded that the current climate change projections are still not accurate enough to be used as the basis for real local operations, while long accumulated ground observations and ground-based radars are available in good quality all over Japan. But at the same time, historical maximum should always be updated as past records are renewed. Also, regional partitioning should not be done at too coarse of scale for proper regionalization of DAD. Such strategy would serve as a useful reference for other nations. HIGHLIGHTS To produce the flood hazard maps under the worst-case scenario, the anticipated maximum scale precipitation (AMSP) is used.; The regionalized worst-case DAD, that is, the DAD estimated by the areal maximum precipitation observed in the history in a climatologically uniform region, is used to estimate the AMSP in any basin in the region.; The ground observations by JMA since 1957 and the Radar-AMeDAS analyzed datasets since 1988 are considered more reliable than the d4PDF dataset assembled by climatological projections using GCMs and RCMs to be used for calculating inundation for flood hazard maps for local practice all over Japan.; The areal maximum precipitation prescribed for a climatologically uniform region is subject to renewal in the future. Therefore, periodical updating of the AMSP is necessary. At the same time, reflection of climatological projections for the areal maximum and geographical partitioning of climatologically uniform regions should be considered.; Ground observations and model-based climatological projections need to go hand-in-hand.;

Catastrophic hyper-concentrated flow during the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOFs) and its far-reaching consequences on life, property and infrastructure are the foremost concern throughout the high mountain areas. The present investigation focuses on a potentially dangerous moraine-dammed proglacial lake in the Bhilangna Valley, central Himalaya, India, which has been expanding at an alarming rate during the last two decades. This lake has expanded from ~0.15 to ~0.35 km2 during 1999–2020 at the cost of loss in the associated glacier area by ~0.21 km2 during the same time period. We have tried to understand the possible trigger and simulated the worst-case outburst scenario and its impact on the settlements and infrastructure in the downstream valley. Two breaching scenarios: (1) overtopping and (2) piping which may be caused by the ice calving into the lake or through avalanches, have been generated, and a maximum possible discharge amount of ~4377 cumec has been estimated considering the lake depth as 30 m. The discharge can inundate an area of ~19 km2 along the river channel with a mean water depth of ~38 m and an average velocity of ~16 m/s. The MODIS-based land surface temperature analysis from 2002 to 2020 suggests that ~19% of the total area of the Bhilangna Basin has biennial surface temperature <0°C, indicating possible permafrost zone. Both the temperature analysis and the surface features surrounding the lake suggest the region to be dominated by permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a context of accelerating deployment of distributed generation in power distribution grid, this work proposes an answer to an important and urgent need for better management tools in order to ‘intelligently’ operate these grids and maintain quality of service. To this aim, a model-based predictive control (MPC) strategy is proposed, allowing efficient re-routing of power flows using flexible assets, while respecting operational constraints as well as the voltage constraints prescribed by ENEDIS, the French distribution grid operator. The flexible assets used in the case study—a low-voltage power distribution grid in southern France—are a biogas plant and a water tower. Non-parametric machine-learning-based models, i.e., Gaussian process regression (GPR) models, are developed for intraday forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), grid load, and water demand, to better anticipate emerging constraints. The forecasts’ quality decreases as the forecast horizon grows longer, but quickly stabilizes around a constant error value. Then, the impact of forecasting errors on the performance of the control strategy is evaluated, revealing a resilient behaviour where little degradation is observed in terms of performance and computation cost. To enhance the strategy’s resilience and minimise voltage overflow, a worst-case scenario approach is proposed for the next time step and its contribution is examined. This is the main contribution of the paper. The purpose of the min–max problem added upstream of the main optimisation problem is to both anticipate and minimise the voltage overshooting resulting from forecasting errors. In this min–max problem, the feasible space defined by the confidence intervals of the forecasts is searched, in order to determine the worst-case scenario in terms of constraint violation, over the next time step. Then, such information is incorporated into the decision-making process of the main optimisation problem. Results show that these incidents are indeed reduced thanks to the min–max problem, both in terms of frequency of their occurrence and the total surface area of overshooting.

The current brief research report aimed to investigate the influence of contextual variables on peak running performance in male elite soccer players. We analyzed 29 matches of an elite soccer team during the Brazilian Serie A 2019. Twenty players were tracked using GPS units. Peak physical performance was determined using moving average running values with different time windows (1, 3, and 5-min periods). The variables analyzed were total distance covered, total distance covered in high-intensity running (≥19.8 km·h−1), and the distance in accelerations (≥2 m·s−2) and decelerations ( ≤-2 m·s−2). Four contextual variables were considered: 1) positional status; 2) match location; 3) match outcome; and 4) match status. Central defenders showed a lower 1-min peak total distance in relation to all other positions (p = 0.001–0.03). Peak physical performance was higher in away matches for high-intensity running, acceleration, and deceleration (p = 0.01–0.03). In matches that ended in losses, peak values for high-intensity running and acceleration were higher compared to draws and wins (p = 0.01–0.04). Regarding the match status, higher values were observed in draws than wins and losses (p = 0.01). Peak running performance vary according to contextual variables of the match in male elite soccer players. Positional differences were found for peak periods, and physical performance was higher in away matches.

We consider the worst-case scenario portfolio approach, introduced by Korn & Wilmott (2002), in a multi-asset setting, where asset defaults can occur in addition to asset crashes. In our model, the strictly risk-averse investor does not know which asset is affected by the worst-case scenario. Based on a reformulation of the value function we define the set of minimum constant portfolio processes. We prove the existence of such a process that solves the worst-case crash/ default portfolio problem. In particular, we prove the existence of a portfolio process that is optimal for the investor and at the same time makes him/ her indifferent to the time of occurrence of the worst possible crash or default scenario. The optimal portfolios are derived from solutions of non-linear differential equations. Therefore, we construct an algorithmic framework to analyze selected examples. These examples show the importance of adapting the portfolio process when considering such worst-case scenarios in the investment problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to compare peak external intensities across game quarters in basketball. Eight semi-professional male players were monitored using accelerometers. For all quarters, peak intensities were determined via moving averages for PlayerLoad/minute (PL·min-1) using sample durations of 15 s, 30 s, 1 min, 2 min, 3 min, 4 min, and 5 min. Linear mixed models and effect sizes (ES) were used to compare peak intensities between quarters for each sample duration. Small decreases in peak PL·min-1 occurred between Quarters 1 and 4 for all sample durations (ES = 0.21-0.49). Small decreases in peak PL·min-1 were apparent between quarters 1 and 2 for 30-s, 1-min, and 3-min sample durations (ES = 0.24-0.33), and between quarters 3 and 4 for 2-5-min sample durations (ES = 0.20-0.24). Peak intensities decline across quarters with game progression in basketball, providing useful insight for practitioners to develop game-specific training and tactical strategies.

(1) Background: The objective of this research was to analyse the most demanding passages (MDP) considering the sprint variable relative to the maximum level of sprint ability of each player as a function of player position, final outcome and part of the match during the competitive phase of a professional soccer season. (2) Methods: Global positioning system (GPS) data were collected from 22 players according to their playing position in the last 19 match days of the Spanish La Liga professional soccer in the 2020/2021 season. MDP were calculated from 80% of the maximum sprint speed of each player. (3) Results: Wide midfielders covered the greatest distance at >80% of the maximum speed (2.4 ± 1.63 seg) and the longest duration (21.91 ± 13.35 m) in their MDP. When the whole team was losing, it demonstrated greater distances (20.23 ± 13.04 m) and longer durations (2.24 ± 1.58 seg) compared to games in which it was winning. When the team ended up drawing, the relative sprint distance covered in the second half was significantly greater than in the first (16.12 ± 21.02; SD = 0.26 ± 0.28 (−0.03/−0.54). (4) Conclusions: Different demands of MDP, according to the sprint variable relative to the maximum individual capacity in competition, are required when contextual game factors are considered.

Understanding the most demanding scenarios of basketball match-play can optimise training prescription. We established physical demand differences in total distance covered, distance covered at high-speed running, distance covered at high-intensity accelerations and decelerations, number of high-speed running actions and number of high-intensity accelerations comparing the traditional average method with the most demanding scenarios based on 1-minute rolling averages. Physical demand parameters were analysed from 21 elite basketball players according to playing position during a friendly game via local positioning system microtechnology. The results showed that players covered a total distance of 141.3 m·min−1 (p < 0.001; ES = 7.80) and 25.4 m·min−1 (p < 0.001; ES = 4.52) at high-speed running using rolling averages, compared to 66.3 and 3.2 m min−1, respectively, using the traditional average approach. These data represent a very large increase of 113.1% for total distance per minute and 686.4% for high-speed running distance per minute, 252% for the number of high-intensity accelerations and 290.5% for the number of high-intensity decelerations, respectively, demonstrating the relevance of this novel approach. In conclusion, this investigation indicated that the traditional average method underestimates peak physical demands over a 1-minute period during a basketball game. Thus, the average approach should be complemented by analysing the most demanding scenarios in order to have a better understanding of physical demands during basketball competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this article is to critically examine the regulatory framework associated with reclamation bonding mechanism in Indonesia. It suggests that the failure of the Indonesian reclamation bonding mechanism is due to a lack of regulatory clarity and the consequent weaknesses in law enforcement. In this context, this article reviews the existing literature on policy models pertaining to bonding mechanisms before arriving at the conclusion that the worst-case scenario described by Costanza and others (2015) represents the most apt remedy to improve Indonesia's reclamation bonding mechanism policy. Under a worst-case scenario bonding mechanism, the bond value is set up according to the costs associated with the most extensive probable environmental destruction. Such costs are over and above those associated with identified environmental damage. Companies intending to conduct mining activities are required to provide such a bond upfront, prior to commencing their exploration and operation–production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unique geological and seismotectonic settings may trigger a multicascading hazard and should be identified beforehand. Such is the head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba (HGEA) at the northeastern end of the Red Sea where its geology, tectonics, bathymetry, and earthquake and tsunami history exhibit clear potential for earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami generation. We thus investigated the possible tsunamigenic sources in the gulf and evaluated the resulting hazard at the HGEA. First, we assembled a bathymetric grid and adopted GeoClaw software to simulate most of the earthquake-tsunami scenarios. Next, we resolved the scheme of the largest possible tsunamigenic earthquakes along the deep basins of the Gulf of Elat (GEA) and the associated Dead Sea rift valley, as well as the potential tsunamigenic submarine landslides in the HGEA. The use of GeoClaw was verified against the 1995 tsunami generated by the Nuweiba Mw 7.2 earthquake, and then operated to simulate a suite of earthquake scenarios. Results showed that the marginal faults of Elat Basin pose the highest tsunami hazard to the Israeli part of the HGEA. To better assess that hazard, we screened the geology and seismotectonics of the HGEA and found that the Elat normal fault presents the worst-case scenario for Elat city. It is capable of generating a multicascading threat of earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami, local subsidence that can increase inundation, and above all, destructive ground motion. Scenarios of a tsunami caused by the worst-case earthquake on the Elat fault simulated by GeoClaw and Ward’s (Tsunami, The encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. 2011, 1473–1493) approach, and submarine landslide in the HGEA simulated by Wang et al.’s (Geophys. J. Int., 2015, 201, 1534–1544) ‘Tsunami Squares’ approach, demonstrated waves as high as 4 m along these coasts. Accordingly, we constructed a map of the evacuation zone. We also show that strong ground-shaking and retreat of the sea at the HGEA should be considered a tsunami warning, although false alarms are inevitable. Furthermore, tsunami hazard exists all along the gulf and further assessments are needed to quantify this hazard and increase awareness among the area's population.

The purpose of this study was to compare peak external intensities across game quarters in basketball. Eight semi-professional male players were monitored using accelerometers. For all quarters, peak intensities were determined via moving averages for PlayerLoad/minute (PL·min-1) using sample durations of 15 s, 30 s, 1 min, 2 min, 3 min, 4 min, and 5 min. Linear mixed models and effect sizes (ES) were used to compare peak intensities between quarters for each sample duration. Small decreases in peak PL·min-1 occurred between Quarters 1 and 4 for all sample durations (ES = 0.21-0.49). Small decreases in peak PL·min-1 were apparent between quarters 1 and 2 for 30-s, 1-min, and 3-min sample durations (ES = 0.24-0.33), and between quarters 3 and 4 for 2-5-min sample durations (ES = 0.20-0.24). Peak intensities decline across quarters with game progression in basketball, providing useful insight for practitioners to develop game-specific training and tactical strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tolerance of machine parts working together is of great importance in terms of both functionality and cost. Especially, determining narrow tolerance ranges for machine parts produced by machining causes high cost increases. For this reason, it is desired to be able to assemble machine parts that will work with each other and to be produced with the widest possible tolerance range. In this study, an assembly system formed by combining standard machine elements on a shaft is analyzed. The manufacturers produce standard machine elements within a certain tolerance value range. In this direction, tolerances for a shaft were performed based on the tolerances of standard machine elements. This merging process started with the worst-case scenario and continued with Monte Carlo simulation to extend the tolerance range. As a result of the analysis, the tolerance value of ± 0.015 mm obtained in the worst-case scenario was expanded up to ± 0.27 mm with Monte Carlo simulation. In this way, it is possible to use a much wider tolerance range in the same mounting system and at the same time gain a benefit in cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated pesticide exposure practices, and the potential health risks of drinking water and consuming fish from the cultivated wetlands of Ndop, Cameroon. Six hundred and twenty-six questionnaires were conveniently administered to farmers (≥ 26 years old) in a cross-sectional study to assess exposure practices and dietary risks. The Chi-square and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to establish relationships between variables. The PRIMET model was used to predict a worst-case dietary risk. The pesticide handling practices of 90% of farmers were inadequate. Chlorpyriphos, lambda-cyhalothrin, fipronil, and paraquat dichloride posed a possible dietary risk at recommended and applied doses, with chlorpyrifos having the highest exposure toxicity ratio (ETR diet = 36.72). Paraquat dichloride, fipronil, and lambda-cyhalothrin posed a possible dietary risk at 26.3%, 58.3%, and 62.2% of their recommended concentrations, respectively. Remarkably, the dietary risk for cypermethrin was acceptable at 5.8 times its recommended dose (ETR dietR = 0.29). The significant positive correlation (p = 0.000) between PEC fish and ETR diet , suggests a possible health risk of consuming fish and drinking water harvested from the wetlands, thus the need for replacing pesticides posing possible risks at lower or recommended concentrations with less toxic alternatives and to train farmers on pesticide application practices., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2024 The Authors This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).)

The main purpose of this study was to describe the most demanding scenarios of match play in basketball through a number of physical demand measures (high-intensity accelerations and decelerations, relative distance covered, and relative distance covered in established speed zones) for four different rolling average time epochs (30, 60, 180, and 300 s) during an official international tournament. A secondary purpose was to identify whether there were significant differences in physical demand measures among playing positions (centers, guards, and forwards) and levels (two best classified teams in the tournament and remaining teams), match scoring (winning, losing, and drawing), and playing periods (match quarter) at the moment of the most demanding scenarios. Data were collected from 94 male under 18 (U18) elite basketball players (age: 17.4 ± 0.7 years; stature: 199.0 ± 11.9 cm; body mass: 87.1 ± 13.1 kg) competing in a Euroleague Basketball Tournament. Measures were compared via a Bayesian inference analysis. The results revealed the presence of position-related differences [Bayesian factor (BF) > 10 (at least strong evidence) and standardized effect size (δ) > 0.6 (at least moderate)] so that centers covered a lower relative distance at speed zone 1 and had lower high-intensity accelerations and decelerations than guards. However, the Bayesian analysis did not demonstrate the existence of significant differences in any physical demand measure in relation to the playing level, match scoring, and playing periods at the moment of the most demanding scenarios. Therefore, this study provides coaches and strength and conditioning specialists with a most demanding scenario reference on physical demands that can be used as an upper limit threshold in the training and rehabilitation monitoring processes.

The radiation environment in space is a complex mixture of particles of solar and galactic origin with a broad range of energies. In astronaut dose estimation, three sources must be considered: galactic cosmic radiation, trapped particles, and solar energetic particles (SEPs). The astronaut dose due to SEP exposure during a space mission is more difficult to estimate than the other components because the occurrence of a large solar particle event cannot be predicted by the current space weather research. Thus, several models have been proposed to estimate the worst-case scenario and/or the probability of the integral SEP fluence during a particular space mission, considering the confidence level, solar activity, and duration of the mission. In addition, recent investigations of the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in tree rings and ice cores have revealed that the sun can cause solar particle events much larger than the largest event recorded in the modern solar observations. If such an extreme event occurs during a mission to deep space, astronauts may suffer from radiation doses in excess of the threshold value for some tissue reactions (0.5 Gy) and their career limit (0.6–1.2 Sv). This article reviews the recent progress made in space weather research that is useful for cosmic radiation dosimetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instruction: Effective playing time in soccer is typically < 60 min per game and while players may reposition themselves when the ball is out of play, it is likely the physical demand decreases during this period. Therefore, if this period is included in data when quantifying match demands, it may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. This study investigated an alternative method for quantifying external workload called ball in play (BiP), which analyses the data excluding stoppages, and thus potentially offers a more insightful analysis of match demands.Methods: Whole match demands as typically recorded via GPS, were compared to those based on BiP, and maximum BiP, with the latter representing worst case scenario phases of play. The 25-elite male youth soccer players (age: 17.9 ± 0.6 years; height: 174.8 ± 6.2 cm; body mass: 66.3 ± 8.1 kg) who participated in this study were also categorised in to positional groups (defender, midfielder, and forward) to assess differences in positional demands.Results: While no differences were noted based on position, whole match metrics were significantly lower than mean and maximum BiP metrics (p < 0.05). There was also a significant difference for maximum BiP outputs across different in-play durations, when comparing 30-60 seconds, 60–90 seconds, and > 90 seconds.Conclusion: This data allows practitioners to gain a deeper understanding of the physical demands imposed on players and plan sessions using targets that better represent match demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this study was to describe the most demanding scenarios of match play in basketball through a number of physical demand measures (high-intensity accelerations and decelerations, relative distance covered, and relative distance covered in established speed zones) for four different rolling average time epochs (30, 60, 180, and 300 s) during an official international tournament. A secondary purpose was to identify whether there were significant differences in physical demand measures among playing positions (centers, guards, and forwards) and levels (two best classified teams in the tournament and remaining teams), match scoring (winning, losing, and drawing), and playing periods (match quarter) at the moment of the most demanding scenarios. Data were collected from 94 male under 18 (U18) elite basketball players (age: 17.4 ± 0.7 years; stature: 199.0 ± 11.9 cm; body mass: 87.1 ± 13.1 kg) competing in a Euroleague Basketball Tournament. Measures were compared via a Bayesian inference analysis. The results revealed the presence of position-related differences [Bayesian factor (BF) > 10 (at least strong evidence) and standardized effect size (δ) > 0.6 (at least moderate)] so that centers covered a lower relative distance at speed zone 1 and had lower high-intensity accelerations and decelerations than guards. However, the Bayesian analysis did not demonstrate the existence of significant differences in any physical demand measure in relation to the playing level, match scoring, and playing periods at the moment of the most demanding scenarios. Therefore, this study provides coaches and strength and conditioning specialists with a most demanding scenario reference on physical demands that can be used as an upper limit threshold in the training and rehabilitation monitoring processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worst-case scenario optimization deals with the minimization of the maximum output in all scenarios of a problem, and it is usually formulated as a min-max problem. Employing nested evolutionary algorithms to solve the problem requires numerous function evaluations. This work proposes a differential evolution with an estimation of distribution algorithm. The algorithm has a nested form, where a differential evolution is applied for both the design and scenario space optimization. To reduce the computational cost, we estimate the distribution of the best worst solution for the best solutions found so far. The probabilistic model is used to sample part of the initial population of the scenario space differential evolution, using a priori knowledge of the previous generations. The method is compared with a state-of-the-art algorithm on both benchmark problems and an engineering application, and the related results are reported.

This article proposes the application of the maximum-entropy principle (MEP) to agency contracting (where a principal hires an agent to make decisions on their behalf) in situations where the principal and agent only have partial knowledge on the probability distribution of the output conditioned on the agent’s actions. The paper characterizes the second-best agency contract from a maximum entropy distribution (MED) obtained from applying the MEP to the agency situation consistently with the information available. We show that, with the minimum shared information about the output distribution for the agency relationship to take place, the second-best compensation contract is (a monotone transformation of) an increasing affine function of output. With additional information on the output distribution, the second-best optimal contracts can be more complex. The second-best contracts obtained theoretically from the MEP cover many compensation schemes observed in real agency relationships.

Hybrid AC–DC networks are transforming high-voltage transmission and medium-voltage distribution grids by embracing the advantages of both AC and DC systems, which facilitates the inclusion of renewable energy sources and distributed generation. As modular multilevel converters (MMCs) are vastly employed in such hybrid networks, determining their maximal fault current in worst-case scenario is a critical design factor for planning and implementation of a reliable protection scheme. This study develops a novel mathematical framework that applies a Lagrangian energy method to calculate the maximal fault magnitude. This method allows to account for converter's internal energy and compute its impact on the amplitude of the fault current. It is shown when the converter is interfacing weak AC sources with high internal impedance such as wind farms or solar farms, dumping the internal energy of the converter into the fault is the salient contributing factor of the fault magnitude. Furthermore, to distinguish and classify the output overcurrent as either ignorable transients or destructive faults, a perceptron with sigmoid threshold is employed. The model is verified using a simulated medium-voltage hybrid AC–DC distribution network.

Container terminals play a critical role in maritime supply chains. However, they show vulnerabilities to severe weather events due to the sea-land interface locations. Previous severe weather risk analysis focused more on larger assessment units, such as regions and cities. Limited studies assessed severe weather risks on a smaller scale of seaports. This paper aims to propose a severe weather-induced container terminal loss estimation framework. Based on a container terminal operation simulation model, monthly average loss and single event-induced loss are obtained by using historical hazard records and terminal operation records as model inputs. By studying the Port of Shenzhen as the case study, we find that the fog events in March lead to the longest monthly port downtime and the highest monthly severe weather-induced economic losses in the studied port. The monthly average loss is estimated to be 30 million USD, accounting for 20% of the intact income. The worst-case scenario is found to be a red-signal typhoon attack which results in nearly 20% decrease in the month's income. The results provide useful references for various container terminal stakeholders in severe weather risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper is a follow-up of the recent study on the assessment of discrete wind gust parameters impacting a flexible lightweight structure as a first step towards the evaluation of the worst-case scenario caused by strong wind gusts (JWEIA 231, 105207, 2022). The present study goes beyond by suggesting an optimization framework which allows to determine the worst-case scenario automatically. For this purpose, a stochastic response surface algorithm with a surrogate model based on radial basis functions is chosen. The algorithm relies on costly evaluations of the objective function, which consist of CPU-time intensive fully coupled fluid–structure interaction (FSI) high-fidelity simulations including the pre- and post-processing of the results. Besides the parallelization of the coupled FSI solver, a parallel version of the optimization algorithm allows to carry out several costly evaluations simultaneously. The Metric Stochastic Response Surface algorithm determines the worst case fast. Then, it continues to explore the optimization space to ensure that the global extremum is reached. A sensitivity study on relevant parameters of the optimization algorithm is conducted. Typically, for the present FSI setup, an optimization run takes one week with 6 evaluations in parallel to compute 100 different configurations. The worst case is found after about one third of the evaluations. The increase of parallel evaluations drastically reduces the wall-clock time, but the worst case is found later after half of the evaluations. This later finding is due to the parallel nature of the algorithm. Finally, the various sources of uncertainties that arise throughout the entire procedure are assessed and discussed. • Methodology to find the worst-case scenario of flexible structures under gust load. • Surrogate-based optimization algorithm to minimize costly FSI simulations. • High-fidelity fluid and structure modeling to capture transient effects. • Deterministic discrete gust model for a total control of its shape. • Application on a air-inflated flexible membrane in a turbulent boundary layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Upper bound of field-induced overvoltage peak in power line network could be assessed both numerically and analytically. • Complex power line system could be equally represented by its coupling-dominate branch for assessing the overvoltage peak. • Specific segment lengths do not influence the predicted upper bound. • Relative orientation between adjacent line segments has strong impact on the upper bounds. This paper deals with the assessment of the maximal peak of the overvoltage induced in a power-line network due to the field-to-wire coupling from an external electromagnetic disturbance. A worst-case analysis is here combined with the transmission line model to find the terminal overvoltage, induce by radiated electromagnetic disturbances of constrained energy density and bandlimits. The approach was applied to canonic power line network topologies, from statistic viewpoint, it is demonstrated that dominant coupling can be ascribed to the branch containing the most twisted segments. Accordingly, efforts have been devoted to find analytical solution to overvoltage peak upper bound for the coupling-dominant zigzag branch. In this connection, both versatile implicit solution and approximated explicit expressions of the upper bound are formulated, which reveals the relations between the upper bound of zigzag branch and its segments, quantitively interpreting the effect of segment orientations and length. Finally, numerical simulations corroborate the model validity and suggest that the estimations of upper bound are sufficiently accurate for analyzing practical power line network. This proposed approach will be instructive for power system insulation coordination and protection design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seaports are critical infrastructure systems in the international economy. They are at the same time vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made catastrophes due to their special coastal and low-lying locations. Traditional catastrophe risk analyses focused more on regions, port cities, and port communities. Limited studies assessed catastrophe risks on ports as a specific system. This paper aims to develop a catastrophe-induced port loss estimation framework, based on a port operation simulation model, actual terminal records and historical hazard records. By using the typhoon hazard and the Port of Shenzhen as a case study, we find that (1) the worst-case scenario of a typhoon impact could cause a total loss of US$0.91 billion for a terminal with 16 berths; and (2) the annual predicted typhoon-induced loss for the same terminal for the next 5 years will reach approximately US$64 million, accounting for 19.7% of the terminal net profit in 2015. The results provide useful references for various port stakeholders in catastrophe risk assessment and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the dynamic portfolio choice problem with ambiguous jump risks in a multidimensional jump-diffusion framework.We formulate a continuous-time model of incomplete market with uncertain jumps. We develop an efficient pathwise optimization procedure based on the martingale methods and minimax results to obtain closed-form solutions for the indirect utility function and the probability of the worst scenario. We then introduce an orthogonal decomposition method for the multi-dimensional problem to derive the optimal portfolio strategy explicitly under ambiguity aversion to jump risks. Finally, we calibrate our model to real market data drawn from 10 international indices and illustrate our results by numerical examples. The certainty equivalent losses affirm the importance of jump uncertainty in optimal portfolio choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results of calculations of the ultimate forces for the worst-case scenario, an important safety concern in hybrid magnets. They appear during a simultaneous and immediate burnout of some or all upper or lower resistive coil halves, or shorts between the coils in themid-plain. Because of their intensity, they have a dramatic impact on the mechanical layout of a hybrid magnet. An electromagnetic shield between insert and outsert, as it is the case for the Grenoble hybridmagnet, takes up part of these forces and reduces them considerably. It makes the calculation of the now time dependent forces rather complex. The ultimate forces have been calculated for two models: a) conservation of magnetic flux with instantaneous energy transfer from the shorted coils to the remaining parts, and b) conservation of energy of the whole hybrid system, including the power supplies, with energy transfer via mutual axial and radial coupling to the other coils. Only for case a) we find an instantaneous force of 6 MN between resistive magnet and its housing at t = 0. The maximum force between resistive magnet and shield appears, when the resistive power supply is switched off at t = 50/100 ms: it is 3.7 MN/4.4 MN for case a) against only 1.5 MN for b). The force on the superconducting magnet is reduced from 210 kN for a) to 130 kN for b). The results underline the usefulness of a shield between insert and outsert to reduce their electrodynamic interaction. They also confirm that the Grenoble hybrid magnet is well suited for inserts of much higher power levels. Our findings have also consequences for the layout of hybrid magnets without shield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]