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The Paris Agreement requires that countries submit and update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate global climate change. This study projected greenhouse gas emissions to evaluate the progress of 25 countries towards their original and updated NDCs. It found that almost one-quarter of the countries submitted more ambitious, updated NDCs without adopting sufficient policies to meet their original targets. Additionally, in most countries, updated NDCs lead to emissions above current policies. The findings also suggest that these patterns are influenced by national constraints, especially reliance on fossil fuels. Appropriate sequencing of ambition raising and policy adoption is urgently needed to translate the Paris Agreement into action.

This policy brief presents recommendations on how to align future COVID-19 fiscal response measures with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal globally, in the EU and, where data are available, also for selected Nordic countries. This brief is based on the findings of a research project supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers Working Group for Climate and Air (NKL), entitled: “The impact of COVID-19 and recovery packages on emission pathways to 2030”. This research project has been prepared as a specific contribution to the 2021 edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report.