Background: [ 177 Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 ( 177 Lu-PSMA-617) prolonged life in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in VISION (NCT03511664). However, distinguishing between patients likely and unlikely to respond remains a clinical challenge. We present the first multivariable models of outcomes with 177 Lu-PSMA-617 built using data from VISION, a large prospective phase 3 clinical trial powered for overall survival., Methods: Adults with progressive post androgen receptor pathway inhibitor and taxane prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-positive mCRPC received 177 Lu-PSMA-617 plus protocol-permitted standard of care (SoC) or SoC alone. In this post hoc analysis, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models of overall survival (OS) and radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS), and a logistic regression model of prostate-specific antigen response (≥50% decline; PSA50) were constructed and evaluated using C-index or receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses with bootstrapping validation. Nomograms were constructed for visualisation., Findings: Patients were randomised between June 2018 and October 2019. Data from all 551 patients in the 177 Lu-PSMA-617 arm were analysed in multivariable modelling. The OS nomogram (C-index, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.76) included whole-body maximum standardised uptake value (SUV max ), time since diagnosis, opioid analgesic use, aspartate aminotransferase, haemoglobin, lymphocyte count, presence of PSMA-positive lesions in lymph nodes, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and neutrophil count. The rPFS nomogram (C-index, 0.68; 0.65-0.72) included SUV max , time since diagnosis, opioid analgesic use, lymphocyte count, presence of liver metastases by computed tomography, LDH, and ALP. The PSA50 nomogram (area under ROC curve, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.77) included SUV max , lymphocyte count and ALP. Performances of the OS and rPFS models were maintained when they were reconstructed excluding SUV max ., Interpretation: These models of outcomes with 177 Lu-PSMA-617 are the first built using prospective phase 3 data. They show that a combination of pretreatment laboratory, clinical, and imaging parameters, reflecting both patient and tumour status, influences outcomes. These models are important for aiding treatment selection, patient management, and clinical trial design., Funding: Novartis., Competing Interests: KH reports receiving grants or contracts from Boston Scientific, Janssen, and Novartis; consulting fees from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bain Capital, Bayer, Boston Scientific, Convergent, Curium, Debiopharm, EcoR1, Fusion, GE Healthcare, Immedica, Isotopen Technologien München, Janssen, Merck, Molecular Partners, Novartis, NVision, POINT Biopharma, Pfizer, Radiopharm Theranostics, Rhine Pharma, Siemens Healthineers, Sofie Biosciences, Telix, Theragnostics, and ymabs; and stock or other ownership in AdvanCell, Aktis Oncology, Convergent, NVision, Pharma 15, and Sofie Biosciences. JSdB reports receiving grants or contracts from Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bioxcel Therapeutics, Crescendo, Daiichi-Sankyo, Endocyte, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, ImCheck Therapeutics, Janssen, Merck Serono, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Pfizer, and Sanofi Aventis; consulting or advisory fees from Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Daiichi-Sankyo, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck Serono, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Orion, Pfizer, Sanofi Aventis, and Taiho; payment or honorarium from Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Cellcentric, Crecendo, Daiichi, Genentech, Genmab, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck Serono, Mycrix, MSD, Orion, Pfizer, Sanofi Aventis, and Taiho; being an inventor on patent 8,822,438; participating on a data safety monitoring or advisory board for Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bioxcel Therapeutics, Crescendo, Daiichi-Sankyo, Endocyte, Genentech/Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, ImCheck Therapeutics, Janssen, Merck Serono, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Oncternal, Pfizer, and Sanofi Aventis; and receiving institutional royalties or licenses related to abiraterone, PARP inhibitor, and PI3K/AKT. OS reports receiving support for the present manuscript from Novartis; institutional grants or contracts from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Endocyte, Invitae, Janssen, Lantheus, Merck, Novartis, Progenics, and Tenebio; consulting fees from ARTBIO, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Blue Earth Diagnostics, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, Fusion, Isotopen Technologien Muenchen, Janssen, Merck, Myovant, Myriad, Noria Therapeutics, NorthStar, Novartis, Pfizer, POINT Biopharma, Sanofi, Telix, and Tenebio; travel and accommodation expenses from Lantheus, NorthStar, and Novartis; participation on a data safety monitoring or advisory board for AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer; and stock or stock options in ARTBIO, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, Convergent, Fusion, Lilly, Pfizer, Ratio, and Telix. KNC reports receiving grants or contracts from AstraZeneca, Bayer, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, POINT Biopharma, and Roche; and consulting fees from Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, POINT Biopharma, and Roche. BJK reports receiving consultant or advisory fees from Bayer, Isotope Technologies Munich, and Novartis; and research funding from Novartis. KR reports receiving consultant fees from ABX, ABX-CRO, Amgen, Bayer Healthcare, Janssen Cilag, Novartis, and Sirtex; and lecture payments from AstraZeneca, Bayer Healthcare, Novartis, and Siemens Healthcare. STT reports receiving institutional fees from AbbVie, Ambrx, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Aveo, Bayer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Clarity, Clovis, Endocyte, Genentech, Gilead, Inovio, Janssen, Karyopharm, Medivation, Merck, Newlink, Novartis, POINT Biopharma, Rexahn, Sanofi, and Seattle Genetics; and consultant fees from AbbVie, Aikido Pharma, Ambrx, Amgen, Astellas, Bayer, Blue Earth, Clarity Pharma, Clovis, Convergent Therapeutics, Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, EMD Serono, Genentech, Genomic Health, Janssen, Medivation, Merck, Myovant, Novartis, Pfizer, POINT Biopharma, Regeneron, Sanofi, Seattle Genetics, Telix, Tolmar, and TransThera. JC reports stock or other ownership interest in Sofie Biosciences, Inc., and Trethera; acting as an uncompensated founder for Trethera; and an uncompensated adviser for Amgen, Atkis Oncology, Jubilant Radiopharma, Novartis, POINT Biopharma, and RayzeBio. GEH reports receiving consultant fees from Bayer HealthCare, Boston Scientific Corporation, NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes, Novartis, and Terumo; and stock ownership in Johnson and Johnson. CCW reports employment and stock ownership with Novartis. ZZ reports previous employment and current stock ownership with Novartis. CW reports employment and stock ownership with Novartis. OM reports employment and stock ownership with Novartis. MJM reports receiving consulting or advisory fees from Amgen, AstraZeneca, Blue Earth Diagnostics, Clarity Pharmaceuticals, Convergent Therapeutics, Daiichi, ITM Isotope Technologies Munich, Lantheus Medical Imaging, Pfizer, POINT Biopharma, Progenics, Telix Pharmaceuticals, and Z-Alpha; stock and other ownership in Doximity; travel, accommodations, and expenses from APCCC, AstraZeneca, and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center; institutional research funding from Astellas Pharma, Bayer, Celgene, Corcept Therapeutics, Janssen, Novartis, Progenics, and Roche/Genentech; patents pending with Novartis; and royalties from Telix. KF reports receiving institutional honorarium or payments to Gustave Roussy Institute from Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, and Sanofi; institutional participation on data safety monitoring or advisory boards for Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Clovis, Daiichi Sankyo, Janssen, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, and Sanofi; and personal participation on a data safety monitoring or advisory board for Arvinas, CureVac, Macrogenics, Orion. No other potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported., (© 2024 The Authors.)