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A modified gravity model is specified and applied to meat trade markets to identify factors affecting bovine and swine meat trade flows. The model is used to evaluate the effects of bilateral and regional free trade agreements. This study reveals that gravity models can be effectively parameterized and used in single commodity trade studies. Using data from 1986 to 2009, the results show that income, population, production capacity, distance, and exchange rate volatility are major factors affecting meat trade.

The objective of this study is to empirically examine the effects of changes in exchange rate, commodity price and energy price on five U.S. food prices — cereal/bakery, meats, dairy, fruits/vegetables and beverages. The Johansen cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction (VEC) model are applied to monthly data for the 2001–2010 period. Results show the existence of stable long-run relationships among the selected variables. We also find that energy and commodity prices have influenced U.S. food prices mainly through changes in prices of cereal/bakery, meats and dairy. Finally, exchange rate is found to have been a significant factor influencing U.S. food prices. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 is one of main driving forces for the recent food price inflation, which has affected negatively consumers, especially low income households, in the United States.

The role of weather in crop production at field is central to understanding the impact of climate change on agriculture and its implications for food security. In this study, we developed a bioeconomic modeling framework for estimating the field effect of weather on crop production at the regional scale with unobserved producer behavior. We took a systematic perspective for model development, explicitly considering crop production as a coupled human–nature system dominated by management adapted to local environmental and economic conditions. We drew on economics to characterize producer management behavior and crop yield consistent with the process of field production. We integrated scientific findings on plant growth and production economics to parameterize the yield function of crop that can be statistically estimated with observed data. An empirical application of our approach to spring wheat production found spatially heterogeneous effect of weather and climate change impact. Our modeling approach can be applied to different crops or regions to develop locally specific understandings of the management adjusted, production effect of weather and climate change impact, with implications on cropping system resilience and for adaptation.

In this study, we develop a sampling-based simulation approach for estimating regional agricultural supply of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission abatements by land-based biological carbon sequestration. We explicitly consider producer behaviour in a market setting that would pay for carbon sequestration depending on current land use and management, target practice to be adopted and spatial location. We construct a behaviour model in the benefit-cost framework to characterise producer decision in relation to preferences and production attributes. We combine the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and choice modelling in a Bayesian setting to develop an empirical procedure that may be calibrated by observed producer behaviour and agricultural census data and that can simulate regional agricultural carbon sequestration by sampling individual preferences and production attributes. An empirical application of our approach depicts potential agricultural supply of GHG abatements by carbon sequestration in a production...

This study is intended to develop understanding of possible impact of a domestic cap-and-trade climate policy on local agriculture. We focus the study on the transition period after the policy has raised input prices for production but before establishment of new equilibrium in agricultural commodity markets. We construct a policy simulation model based on production economics that explicitly considers producer behavior in the focal period. We apply the model to a production region in the US to quantify the impact of different levels of carbon price on production cost, production value, and farm income. Our case study shows that: (1) producers have ability to alleviate the cost impact, (2) producers may benefit by selling carbon credits in the carbon market but the revenue is likely to be limited, (3) the economic return of farm production is critical to the impact assessment, (4) the impact may vary across producers, and (5) regulation on the fertilizer industry is an important policy element that can influence the assessment of the impact. This study has important implications for climate policy design.

The short- and long-run effects of exchange rates, income, interest rates and government spending on U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The primary contribution of this study is to consider separating the analysis of exports and imports in an integrated model that empirically encompasses four major schools of thoughts – elasticity, Keynesian income, absorption and monetary approaches – in order to identify macroeconomic linkages to U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries accurately. Results suggest that, in both the short- and long-run, U.S. imports and exports are highly sensitive to changes in U.S. and foreign income, while U.S. imports and exports are relatively insensitive to changes in bilateral exchange rate. It is also found that both exports and imports are more responsive to changes in government spending than changes in interest rates in both the short- and long-run.

Policies regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to create a significant burden on emitting industries as well as final consumers, which can lead to a strong influence on international trade flows of commodities. This study examines whether the regulation of GHG emissions affects livestock trade flows. A commodity-specific gravity model approach is employed to estimate and test the impact of regulating GHG emissions on livestock trade flows. The results show that regulation of GHG emissions has a negative effect on livestock trade flows from countries restricting GHG emissions to countries without GHG restriction, from restricting countries to restricting countries, and unrestricting countries to restricting countries.

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer-oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer-oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.

The effects of the exchange rate, the U.S. agricultural price, the domestic income, and the interest rate on the U.S. net farm income are investigated in a cointegration framework. For this purpose, the Phillips-Hansen fully-modified cointegration (FM-OLS) procedure is applied to annual data for the period 1957-2008. Results suggest that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. net farm income and the selected macroeconomic variables. We also find that the exchange rate and U.S. agricultural price are more important than other variables in determining the U.S. net farm income.

This paper examines the pricing behaviors of United States air carriers in domestic markets. With quarterly observations in 2000 and 2005, we use a heteroskedasticity-adjusted Instrumental Variable technique to investigate the carriers’ pricing strategies. The results show differential pricing strategies practiced by United States air carriers. American, United, Continental, and Northwest Airlines have higher airfares than Delta and Southwest Airlines in 2005. In 2000, all the carriers, except Delta have the same relationships with airfares. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the carriers’ pricing strategies can vary under the same market condition, indicating that carriers’ managerial decisions may influence their airfares.

This study examines the short- and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables—agricultural commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates—on the U.S. farm income. For this purpose, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration with quarterly data for 1989–2008. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the long-ran behavior of U.S. farm income, but has little effect in the short-run. We also find that the commodity price and interest rate have been significant determinants of U.S. farm income in both the short- and long-run over the past two decades.

The dynamic relationships among trade, income and the environment for developed and developing countries are examined using a cointegration analysis. Results suggest that trade and income growth tend to increase environmental quality in developed countries, whereas they have detrimental effects on environmental quality in most developing countries. It is also found that for developed countries, the causal relationship appears to run from trade and income to the environment — a change in trade and income growth causes a consequent change in environmental quality. For most developing countries, on the other hand, the causality is found to run from the environment to trade and income; however, the opposite causal relationship holds for China.

This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Dans le present article, nous avons utilise un modele autoregressif a retards echelonnes (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets a court et a long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilateral des produits agricoles entre les Etats-Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les resultats ont montre que, a long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des Etats-Unis soient tres sensibles aux taux de change bilateraux et au revenu etranger, les importations agricoles des Etats-Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu interieur des Etats-Unis. A court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilateraux et le revenu des Etats-Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des repercussions considerables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des Etats-Unis.

This paper applies rail freight-rate theory to U.S. and Canadian grain movements for both domestic and export destinations. In this analysis it is established that grain freight rates in the U.S. are largely determined by distance, shipment size, frequency of shipments, intermodal competition, and geographical characteristics of route origins and destinations. Freight rates, therefore, vary depending upon routes. A comparison of U.S. export rates with Canada's statutory rate revealed that the U.S. rate levels, in 1979, were 4.3 and 2.9 times higher for hauling distances of 200 and 1,000 miles respectively in the lowest-rate route; while it was about 7.8 and 7.5 times higher for the same mileage in the highest-rate route. The extent to which the U.S. experience is relevant to Western Canada depends largely on the manner in which Canada's statutory rate is revised after the scheduled review in 1985–86.

China's GDP has been increasing rapidly since its reform and opening up in 1978. Real GDP increased from 1,306.2 billion yuan in 1978 to 12,067.3 billion in 2004, at an average annual rate of 8.9 per cent. (1) The average growth rate of per capita real GDP was 7.7 per cent over the same period. Figure 1 shows China's real GDP in the agricultural and non-agricultural (or industrial) sectors over the 1978-2004 period. While real GDP levels in both the agricultural and industrial sectors have increased steadily over the years, the industrial GDP has increased faster than the agricultural GDP The real GDP in the agricultural sector grew from 367 billion yuan in 1978 to 1,831 billion yuan in 2004, at an average annual rate of 6.4 per cent. The real GDP in the industrial sector grew from 939.1 billion yuan in 1978 to 10,236.4 billion yuan in 2004, at an average annual rate of 9.6 per cent. The real GDP growth rates in the two sectors are negatively correlated (see Table 1). China's real GDP growth rates were 7.8 per cent and 11.2 per cent for the industrial and the agricultural sectors, respectively, from 1978 to 1984. However, the real GDP growth rate for the agricultural sector averaged only 4.8 per cent from 1990 to 1999, much slower than the real GDP growth rate of 11.4 per cent for the industrial sector. Since 2000, China's real GDP growth rate in the industrial sector has decreased and averaged at about 8.1 per cent, while that in the agricultural sector increased slightly and averaged 5.8 per cent. There are two reasons behind the recovery in the agricultural sector in recent years. First, improving farmer's incomes and narrowing the urban-rural income gaps have been top priorities for the Chinese government since 2000. This represents a fundamental shift in Chinese agricultural policies. The government has increased subsidies to grain growers to boost grain production, while it has reduced agricultural taxes to increase farmers' income. Second, agricultural imports and exports have increased rapidly since China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Trade stimulates economic growth since it promotes specialisation in production and encourages more efficient use of resources. [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] The rapid economic growth in China has generated many empirical studies aimed at explaining this performance. However, the results of previous studies are mixed and the empirical evidence with respect to factors driving the rapid economic growth is insufficient. For example, Kwan and Kwok argued that exports contributed to the Chinese rapid economic growth while Berthelemy and Demurger found that exports were not a significant determinant for GDP growth in China. (2) One particular problem with many of the previous studies of China's economic growth is that some important potential determinants of growth such as technology and foreign direct investment (FDI) have been ignored. (3) China has received a large amount of FDI, and technology levels have risen dramatically in the country since 1978. The results based on the previous studies are likely biased and inconclusive due to the lack of these important factors. The objective of this study is to answer the following questions regarding China's economic growth in both the agricultural and industrial sectors: (1) what are the determinants of agricultural and industrial GDP growth in China?, and (2) what has been the relationship between the agricultural and industrial sectors in China's economic growth? The main contribution of this study is the specification of a two-sectors model based on production theory along with interdependency between the sectors. An Empirical Model for GDP Growth The multi-input Cobb-Douglas production function is a primary feature of many models of economic growth and can be written as follows: [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII] (1) where Y is real GDP; [X. …

Roundup Ready-Wheat (RRW) is one of the first genetically modified (GM) traits for the wheat sector. We develop a spatial partial equilibrium model of the higher-protein hard wheat market and assess the changes in the distribution of welfare associated with release and adoption of RRW. It incorporates segments for GM aversion in each market and segregation costs for each segment. In the most likely scenario, producer and consumer welfare increases by $301 and $252 million, respectively. Producers of hard red spring wheat in the US and Canada gain. There are welfare losses to hard red winter wheat growers in the US and to EU consumers who have to import at a higher cost. Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2008; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981–2003. The results show that, in the long run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and the disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance. La presente etude porte sur les liens a court et a long terme entre la balance commerciale agricole des Etats-Unis, les agregats macroeconomiques et les variables agricoles. Nous avons utilise une analyse de cointegration et un modele vectoriel a correction d'erreur comprenant des donnees trimestrielles de 1981 a 2003. Les resultats ont montre que, a long terme, le taux de change, les prix agricoles et le revenu disponible sont faiblement exogenes dans le secteur agricole des Etats-Unis et qu'ils ont des effets substantiels sur la balance commerciale. Les effets dynamiques a court terme combines du taux de change, des prix et de la production agricoles ainsi que du revenu disponible expliquent les changements observes dans la balance commerciale.

Ethanol expansion has the prospect of having major impacts on cropping patterns and the spatial distribution of grain flows. These changes are in addition to those being driven by developments elsewhere in the world grain economy, including growth in consumption (e.g., China) and production in alternative regions such as Northern Brazil. This article develops a spatial optimization model based on longer-term competitive equilibrium to make projections about cropping patterns and grain shipments from individual ports. Most important among these trends are a shift in area toward corn and away from wheat, a reduction in corn exports, an increase in exports from competitor countries, and changes in domestic and international grain flows. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

This paper examines the effects of a U.S.-Korea free trade agreement (FTA) on various sectors of the economy in the two countries using a general equilibrium model. Our analysis indicates that the increase in U.S.-Korea bilateral trade volume in recent years is through intra-industry trade of high-technology products. Under a U.S.-Korea FTA, the bilateral trade volume would increase for virtually all the sectors and the GDP and social welfare would improve for both countries. However, producers of textile products in the United States and producers of agriculture and food products in South Korea would suffer from the FTA. How to compensate those groups would be instrumental to the smooth implementation of the FTA.

The effects of the exchange rate and the income and money supply of the United States and its major trading partners on the U.S. agricultural trade balance are examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results suggest that the exchange rate is the key determinant of the short- and long-run behavior of the trade balance. It is also found that the income and money supply in both the United States and the trading partners have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural trade in both the short and long run.

I. INTRODUCTION Sino-U.S. bilateral trade has been growing dramatically over the past two decades. According to U.S. statistics, the bilateral trade volume jumped from $7.72 billion in 1985 to $231.43 billion in 2004, representing an average annual growth rate of 19.6%. More importantly, the pattern of trade between the United States and China has changed over time. China's trade surplus with the United States has increased steadily with the growing trade volume between the two countries, totaled only $0.01 billion in 1985, but grew to $33.79 in 1995 and jumped to $161.94 billion in 2004. As shown in Figure 1, China's imports from the United States have risen only slightly, while its exports to the United States have increased sharply since the mid-1990s. [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] China's exchange rate system has also changed over time. Before 1994, China used a fixed exchange rate system and a double-track exchange rate system, in succession. From 1994 to July 20, 2005, China pegged its currency (yuan or renminbi) to the U.S. currency at 8.27 yuan per dollar. Beginning July 21, 2005, China has adopted a managed floating exchange rate system based on a basket of currencies. The principal currencies in the basket include the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and Korean won. The annual nominal and real exchange rates between China and the United States over 1970-2004 are shown in Figure 2. The real exchange rate is above the corresponding nominal exchange rate for most years over 1970-2004, indicating that the U.S. dollar is stronger in real terms than in nominal terms. [FIGURE 2 OMITTED] China's large trade surplus with the United States in recent years has led some critics to claim that the yuan is undervalued (e.g., Chang and Shao, 2004; Coudert and Couharde, 2004; Goldstein, 2003). Goldstein (2003) argued that the undervaluation of the yuan was 15%-25% in 2002. However, this opinion is countered by the fact that China's overall trade surplus (about $30 billion at the end of 2004) has not been as large as the surplus with the United States, which implies that China has trade deficits with other countries. China may import technology-intensive intermediate goods from its neighboring countries (such as Japan and South Korea), use them to produce final products with its cheap labor, and then export those goods to the United States. This trade pattern, called the third-country effect, was especially relevant in the 1990s when the U.S. dollar was strong against the currencies of the Asian countries. Since the Chinese yuan is pegged to the U.S. currency, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Asian currencies implies that Chinese imports of technology-intensive intermediate and consumer goods from the Asian countries were cheaper than imports of these goods from the United States. China used the imported intermediate goods to produce final technology-intensive goods and exported them to the United States. This indicates that the pegged exchange rate system may be one of the factors that has caused China's trade surplus with the United States. Others believe that this bilateral trade pattern is simply due to the fact that the unit costs in China are relatively lower than those in the United States. The question of whether the bilateral exchange rate has played an important role in explaining Sino-U.S. trade imbalance problem is highly controversial. Cho and Koo (2004) found that the exchange rate between China and the United States does not have an important role in explaining the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade imbalance. By contrast, Brada, Kutan, and Zhou (1993) argued that the devaluation of Chinese yuan serves to improve China's balance of trade. The objective of this article is to examine the effects of the Sino-U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade patterns. Specifically, this paper will (1) identify characteristics of bilateral trade between the United States and China and (2) evaluate the impact of Sino-U. …

U.S. trade of beef and live cattle declined substantially after the discoveries of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada and the United States in 2003. In this study, an econometric model is developed to estimate the effects of lifting trade restrictions on U.S. cattle and beef prices. Results show that increases in imports of Canadian cattle and beef would lower prices of slaughter steers, feeder steers, and retail beef, but these negative impacts would be more than negated by the positive effects on prices that would result if beef exports return to near pre-BSE levels. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Purpose This chapter examines whether the supply of food is large enough to feed an increasing world population for the 2012–2050 period. Special attention is given to the implications of bioenergy production on global and regional food security. Methodology/approach For this analysis, a global food security simulation model was developed to determine if the global and regional supply of food, in terms of calories, is large enough to meet the demand and also to estimate the impact on food prices. Findings This chapter found that the global supply of food in terms of calories is insufficient to satisfy food demand in 2050, with food shortages especially significant in Africa. Practical implications The estimated shortage of food may result in significant food-price inflation by 2050.

Japan-based international wheat traders face multiple risks from the changes in wheat prices and exchange rates. This study shows that Japanese wheat importers would employ futures hedging in the CBOT and/or TIFFE to reduce the risks, although there is no wheat futures trading in Japan. For the importers, hedging in the CBOT and TIFFE might accompany some costs in addition to transaction and opportunity costs, such as additional transaction cost as a foreign trader and a relatively higher bid-ask spread due to a large volume of trade. Thus, introducing hedging costs in an offshore hedging model for the traders is necessary, and it may change optimal hedging ratios in both futures markets. Empirical results show that costs in the hedging activities are at play in determining optimal hedging positions in the markets.

A computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate the economic effects of a free trade agreement among China, Japan, and South Korea on the world economy. This study is focused on estimating trade creation and diversion effects of the FTA. Results show that there are strong trade diversion effects of the FTA between the member countries and the rest-of-the-world. This is especially true for trade in the high-technology manufacturing sector between the U.S and China. This study also reveals that the member countries under the FTA tend to specialize on the basis of resource endowments, but there exists a significant amount of intra-industry trade among the member countries in all sectors except agricultural and service/utility sectors. In addition, the FTA stimulates the economies of the three countries through increased trade volume, but provides a significant negative effect on economies of non-member countries.

increasing global nature of the world economy have sparked much debate as to whether globalization is a vehicle for growth and development or a bane to society. The debate is not simply one between the informed and the uneducated. Some of the most respected economists in the world disagree as to the impacts of globalization. Stiglitz (2002) refers to "the devastating effect that globalization can have on developing countries." On the other hand, Bhagwati (2004) holds that globalization can be beneficial for both developed and developing countries. He postulates that, for this to occur, there must be a set of new policies and institutions that will help developing countries handle increased volatilities result

Important changes occurring in the world grain trade will affect the spatial distribution of grain flows and affect large-scale transportation projects. Most important among these are developments in ethanol and in Brazil and China. This paper develops a spatial optimization model based on a long-term competitive equilibrium to make projections in the world grain trade and shipments from individual ports to 2025. Results indicate that world trade should increase by about 47%, with the fastest growth occurring in imports to China and Pakistan and the slowest growth in Japan and the European Union, traditionally large markets. Most increases in terms of volume are expected in soybeans (49%), followed by corn (26%). Most of the U.S. export growth is expected through the barge system to U.S. ports on the Gulf of Mexico, with negligible growth through the Pacific Northwest and lakes. Although a multitude of reasons explain this expected trend, one is the growth in ethanol concentrated in the western states, which will require shifting production to meet demand. As a result, the exportable surplus from these regions will decline, and much of the growth in exports will be through the U.S. Gulf and from Argentina and Brazil, particularly northern Brazil, through spatial competition. Reflecting the impacts of growth in demand as well as international and intermodal competition, these results provide insight for transport project planners about the long-term growth in exports from particular origins and routes.

In this report, we apply a dynamic cost minimization model of U.S. foreign direct investment in food processing industries to nine Latin American countries. Estimation of the first order condition (Euler equation) using a consistent rational expectation assumption showed that dynamic structure explains the investment process in food processing industries quite well. U.S. food processors in Latin America are driven by the host country?s level of demand and by labor cost considerations. They can adjust their investment position quickly. We also quantified short and long-run effects of shocks to exogenous variables on foreign direct investment position.

This study examines the effects of the Canada–U.S. exchange rate on bilateral trade of agricultural goods between the two countries and on U.S. farm income. Special attention is given to agricultural trade between the two countries under the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA). This study utilizes two time series models: the vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector moving average model (VMA) with quarterly time series data from 1983 to 2000. It is found that the exchange rate has a significant impact on U.S. agricultural trade with Canada, but the impact on U.S. agricultural price and income is insignificant. The exchange rate between the two currencies is found to be weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector, which answers a fundamental question about the role of the exchange rate in Canada–U.S. bilateral trade for agricultural products. In addition, the results point to a significant, though minimal, effect on bilateral trade due to CUSTA. Les auteurs examinent les effets du taux de change canado-americain sur les echanges de produits agricoles entre les deux pays et sur le revenu des producteurs americains. Ils accordent une attention particuliere au commerce agricole dans le contexte de l'Accord de libre-echange nordam ericain (ALENA). L'etude repose sur deux modeles - le modele vectoriel de correction de l'erreur (VECM) et le modele vectoriel de la moyenne mobile (VMA) - auxquels on applique une serie chronologique de donnees trimestrielles, de 1983 a 2000. On constate que le taux de change a une incidence sensible sur les echanges de produits agricoles entre les Etats-Unis et le Canada, mais n'a qu'un impact negligeable sur le prix des produits et sur le revenu des producteurs aux Etats-Unis. Le taux de change entre les deux pays est faiblement exogene pour l'agriculture americaine, ce qui repond a la question fondamentale concernant son role sur les echanges canado-americains de produits agricoles. Les resultats indiquent aussi une incidence minime mais significative sur le commerce bilateral en raison de l'ALENA.

Canadian exports of beef and live cattle to the United States have increased significantly since the late 1980s. Hog and pork exports have increased since the mid-1990s. Major factors affecting exports of beef, pork, cattle and hogs from Canada to the United States include the exchange rate, increased Canadian production, Canada-U.S. price differentials and trade liberalization under the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989. Increased Canadian exports have resulted in small but significant reductions in U.S. domestic prices of beef, pork and hogs. Les exportations canadiens de viande bovine et de troupeaux bovins vers les Etats-Unis ont augmente significativement depuis la fin des annees 80. Les exportations de porcs ont augmente depuis la moitie des annees 90. Les principaux facteurs affectant les exportations des viandes bovines, porcines et de troupeaux bovins et porcins du Canada vers les Etats-Unis, incluant le taux d'echange ont augmente la production canadienne, la difference de prix entre le Canada et les Etats-Unis, et la liberalisation du marche sous les accords de marche libre entre le Canada et les Etats-Unis de 1989. La hausse des exportations canadiens ont provoque de petites mais significatives reductions des prix domestiques des viandes bovines et porcines.

A nonparametric approach was used to test whether there was a structural change in Japanese consumers' demand for meat as a result of the BSE outbreak in the country. The axiom of revealed preference was utilised to test the stability of preferences in Japanese meat consumption. The matrix of the weak form of revealed preference (WARP) was partitioned and Kruskal--Wallis statistics were derived to evaluate whether the preference switches found are transitory or due to a structural change. Empirical results show that Japanese meat demand is currently unstable and has undergone structural change, synchronised with the BSE outbreak in Japan in mid-September 2001. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

International ngric~~ltural trade has evolved over time. Processed foods and developing countries have become major grclwtli markets for U.S. agricultural exports, and foreign direct in\.estlnent (FDI) has become even more important than exports as a means of accessing foreign niarhets. The critical q~lestion is whether FDI is a substitute for or a cornple~nent 01. exports. This research build5 upon an existing theoretical FDI mt>del and contributes to the literature through the development of a si~n~~ltaneo~~a equation system i'or FDI and exports. which is estimated using two-stage least squares. Empirical analyse4 were used to examine the relationship between U.S. FDI and cxports of processed thods into East Asi:un courltriesChina. Japan, Singapore, So~ith Korea. and Taiwan-from I989 to 1908. The res~~lts indicated a complenientary relationship hetueen FDI and exports. Additionally, these ~-esult indicated Lhat interest rates. exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and compensation rate\ arc important variables that iliHuence 11,s. FDI in East Asian count[-ies, while GDP exchar~ge rates. and export prices are import~uit export dcterlninants. Kc? Worrls: East Asia, exports, foreign direct investment, international trade. processed foocls

This study analyzes the impacts of alternative trade liberalization policies in the United States and the European Union (EU) on the U.S. sugar industry. A global sugar policy simulation model was used for this analysis. The study results indicate that the U.S. sugar industry may be able to survive if both the United States and the EU liberalize their sugar trade. However, if only the United States eliminates its sugar programs, all U.S. sugar-producing regions would be threatened. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze air carriers’ behavior in capturing market share by examining the economic factors affecting passenger behavior toward air travel. This study also examines non-economic factors such as seasonality, unexpected events (9/11 attack), mergers, and trends. Because the airlines included in this study compete with each other, seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) is used to estimate the parameters of the demand models which have correlated error terms. The economic and statistical relationship of the factors with air passenger miles provides valuable information to understand the nature of the demand for the U.S. air passenger industry. In examining demand determinants, this study concludes that air fare, income, seasonality, and mergers play significant roles in determining the demand for air passengers.