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1. Seq2Seq Surrogates of Epidemic Models to Facilitate Bayesian Inference

Author

Charles, Giovanni, Wolock, Timothy M., Winskill, Peter, Ghani, Azra, Bhatt, Samir, and Flaxman, Seth

Subjects
Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Mathematics - Probability, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Statistics - Machine Learning
Abstract

Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference.

Published
2022

2. Bayesian epidemic models to infer spatio-temporal HIV incidence with applications to Malawi

Author

Wolock, Timothy M., Flaxman, Seth, and Eaton, Jeffrey

Abstract

The rate of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections has decreased since its global peak in the mid-1990s. As the epidemic continues to recede, the efficacy of treatment and prevention programmes will depend on how well they target the right people in the right places. Few existing models of HIV burden offer spatio-temporally resolved estimates of incidence. I propose a novel epidemic model of HIV that bridges the gap between spatially resolved models of prevalence and epidemiologically sound compartmental models of incidence. It relies less heavily on fixed, exogenous data than previous models and fits directly to data from household surveys, antenatal care facilities, and HIV treatment programmes. Here, I present the details of the model, a broad set of specification tests, and descriptive results from an application to Malawi, as well as a comparison of methods for smoothing and interpolating sexual partner age data in preparation for adding age structure. The model comparisons identified a set of specification decisions that consistently led to better out-of-sample fit to district-level data from Malawi. I selected a single specification that fit well to most data and reproduced the programme data nearly perfectly. It estimated that increases in ART coverage resulted in decreases in HIV incidence in Malawi but that spatial heterogeneity in incidence was high. The proposed model offers several improvements on previous models of HIV incidence, and cross-validated model specification experiments provide relative confidence that the specification used here is appropriate for the epidemic in Malawi. The results from the selected specification underscore the continued success of the Malawian HIV treatment programme and highlight the possibility that, even in a high-prevalence setting, the epidemic is becoming increasingly concentrated.

Published
2022
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3. Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing

Author

Wolock, Timothy M, Flaxman, Seth R, Risher, Kathryn A, Dadirai, Tawanda, Gregson, Simon, and Eaton, Jeffrey W

Subjects
Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Methodology
Abstract

The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the distribution of sexual partner ages over age and sex. We identified which probability distributions and outcome specifications best captured variation in partner age and quantified the benefits of modelling these data using distributional regression. We found that distributional regression with a sinh-arcsinh distribution replicated observed partner age distributions most accurately across three geographically diverse data sets. This framework can be extended with well-known hierarchical modelling tools and can help improve estimates of sexual age-mixing dynamics., Comment: Main text: 25 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables; Appendix: 24 pages, 11 figures, 10 tables; Submitted to eLife

Published
2021

4. Inferring HIV incidence trends and transmission dynamics with a spatio-temporal HIV epidemic model

Author

Wolock, Timothy M, Flaxman, Seth R, and Eaton, Jeffrey W

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models infer incidence from survey and surveillance seroprevalence data, but they require unrealistic assumptions about spatial independence across spatial units. In this study, we present an epidemic model of HIV that explicitly simulates the spatial dynamics of HIV over many small, interacting areal units. By integrating all available population-level data, we are able to infer not only spatio-temporally varying incidence, but also ART initiation rates and patient counts. Our study illustrates the feasibility of applying compartmental models to larger inferential problems than those to which they are typically applied, as well as the value of data fusion approaches to infectious disease modeling., Comment: 28 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Epidemics 7

Published
2019

5. Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Eaton, Jeffrey W., Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Gutreuter, Steve, O'Driscoll, Megan, Stevens, Oliver, Bajaj, Sumali, Ashton, Rob, Hill, Alexandra, Russell, Emma, Esra, Rachel, Dolan, Nicolas, Anifowoshe, Yusuf O., Woodbridge, Mark, Fellows, Ian, Glaubius, Robert, Haeuser, Emily, Okonek, Taylor, Stover, John, Thomas, Matthew L., Wakefield, Jon, Wolock, Timothy M., Berry, Jonathan, Sabala, Tomasz, Heard, Nathan, Delgado, Stephen, Jahn, Andreas, Kalua, Thokozani, Chimpandule, Tiwonge, Auld, Andrew, Kim, Evelyn, Payne, Danielle, Johnson, Leigh F., FitzJohn, Richard G., Wanyeki, Ian, Mahy, Mary I., and Shiraishi, Ray W.

Subjects
Distribution, Evaluation, Models, Methods, Forecasts and trends, Market trend/market analysis, Company distribution practices, HIV infections -- Models -- Forecasts and trends -- Distribution, Epidemics -- Models -- Forecasts and trends -- Sub-Saharan Africa, Statistical models -- Methods -- Evaluation, HIV infection -- Models -- Forecasts and trends -- Distribution
Abstract

1 | INTRODUCTION The global community has established ambitious goals for expanding coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and reducing new HIV infections to end AIDS as a public health threat [...], Introduction: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups. Methods: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018. Results: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city. Conclusions: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data. Keywords: Bayesian statistics; HIV estimates; joint modelling; routine data; small-area estimation

Published
2021
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6. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Collaborators, Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, Vos, Theo, Barber, Ryan M, Bell, Brad, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Biryukov, Stan, Bolliger, Ian, Charlson, Fiona, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dicker, Daniel, Duan, Leilei, Erskine, Holly, Feigin, Valery L, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Hansen, Gillian M, Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Heuton, Kyle R, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Kyu, Hmwe, Laurie, Evan, Liang, Xiofeng, Lofgren, Katherine, Lozano, Rafael, MacIntyre, Michael F, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nguyen, Grant, Odell, Shaun, Ortblad, Katrina, Roberts, David Allen, Roth, Gregory A, Sandar, Logan, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Steiner, Caitlyn, Thomas, Bernadette, Vollset, Stein Emil, Whiteford, Harvey, Wolock, Timothy M, Ye, Pengpeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ãvila, Marco A, Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Aziz, Muna I Abdel, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Aburto, Tania C, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, Josef C, Arnlov, Johan, Agardh, Emilie E, Khabouri, Mazin J Al, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Aleman, Alicia V, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, H Ross, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Apfel, Henry, Arsenijevic, Valentain S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, and Atkins, Lydia S

Subjects
Burden of Illness, Infectious Diseases, Brain Disorders, Pain Research, Mental Health, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, 2.1 Biological and endogenous factors, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Good Health and Well Being, Acute Disease, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Chronic Disease, Cost of Illness, Developed Countries, Developing Countries, Disabled Persons, Female, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Neglected Diseases, Prevalence, Residence Characteristics, Sex Distribution, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult, Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Collaborators, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundUp-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013.MethodsEstimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries.FindingsDisease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013.InterpretationAgeing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2015

8. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Coggeshall, Megan S, Shackelford, Katya A, Steiner, Caitlyn, Heuton, Kyle R, Gonzalez-Medina, Diego, Barber, Ryan, Huynh, Chantal, Dicker, Daniel, Templin, Tara, Wolock, Timothy M, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Achoki, Tom, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie E, Akena, Dickens, Alasfoor, Deena, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alla, François, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Antonio, Carl AT, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asad, Majed Masoud, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Breitborde, Nicholas, Cárdenas, Rosario, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavlin, Alanur, Chang, Jung-Chen, Che, Xuan, Christophi, Costas A, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cirillo, Massimo, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, da Costa Leite, Iuri, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Davis, Adrian, Dayama, Anand, Degenhardt, Louisa, De Leo, Diego, del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Dessalegn, Muluken, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Dorrington, Rob E, Driscoll, Tim R, Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Felicio, Manuela Mendonca, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, and de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira

Subjects
2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Infection, Reproductive health and childbirth, Good Health and Well Being, Age Distribution, Cause of Death, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Maternal Mortality, Models, Statistical, Organizational Objectives, Pregnancy, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.MethodsWe used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.Findings292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.InterpretationGlobal rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014

9. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Murray, Christopher JL, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Basara, Berrak Bora, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, and Deribe, Kebede

Subjects
HIV/AIDS, Prevention, Rare Diseases, Vector-Borne Diseases, Infectious Diseases, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, Aetiology, Infection, Good Health and Well Being, Age Distribution, Epidemics, Female, Global Health, HIV Infections, Humans, Incidence, Malaria, Male, Mortality, Organizational Objectives, Sex Distribution, Tuberculosis, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine
Abstract

BackgroundThe Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.MethodsTo estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FindingsGlobally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.InterpretationOur estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2014

10. The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H, Maddison, Emilie R, Henry, Nathaniel J, Mumford, John Everett, Barber, Ryan, Shields, Chloe, Brown, Jonathan C, Nguyen, Grant, Carter, Austin, Wolock, Timothy M, Wang, Haidong, Liu, Patrick Y, Reitsma, Marissa, Ross, Jennifer M, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbas, Kaja, Abera, Mubarek, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abera Hareri, Habtamu, Ahmed, Muktar, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amo-Adjei, Joshua, Andrews, Jason, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo, Anwari, Palwasha, Asayesh, Hamid, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin, Barac, Aleksandra, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bensenor, Isabela, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Butt, Zahid Ahmad, Cardona, Pere-Joan, Christopher, Devasahayam, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Ehrenkranz, Rebecca, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Endries, Aman, Feyissa, Tesfaye R, Fischer, Florian, Gai, Ruoyan, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gesesew, Hailay, Getahun, Belete, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gugnani, Harish, Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Hilawe, Esayas, Horita, Nobuyuki, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jonas, Jost B, Kasaeian, Amir, Kedir, Muktar Sano, Kemmer, Laura, Khader, Yousef, Khan, Ejaz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah T, Kim, Yun Jin, Koul, Parvaiz, Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J, Kumar, G Anil, Kutz, Michael, Lodha, Rakesh, Magdy And El Razek, Hassan, Majdzadeh, Reza, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Memish, Ziad, Mendoza, Walter, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Mohammed, Shafiu, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oren, Eyal, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron, Pereira, David, Plass, Dietrich, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rao, Puja C, Ray, Sarah E, Reiner, Robert, Reinig, Nickolas, Safiri, Saeid, Salomon, Joshua A, Sandar, Logan, Sartorius, Benn, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shey, Muki, Shifti, Desalegn Markos, Shore, Hirbo, Singh, Jasvinder, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swartz, Scott J, Tadese, Fentaw, Tedla, Bemnet Amare, Tegegne, Balewgizie Sileshi, Tessema, Belay, Topor-Madry, Roman, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Uthman, Olalekan A., Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wakayo, Tolassa, Weldegebreal, Solomon, Westerman, Ronny, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Naghavi, Mohsen, Hay, Simon I, Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher JL

Published
2018
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12. Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996–2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China

Author

Wang, Yanping, Li, Xiaohong, Zhou, Maigeng, Luo, Shusheng, Liang, Juan, Liddell, Chelsea A, Coates, Matthew M, Gao, Yanqiu, Wang, Linhong, He, Chunhua, Kang, Chuyun, Liu, Shiwei, Dai, Li, Schumacher, Austin E, Fraser, Maya S, Wolock, Timothy M, Pain, Amanda, Levitz, Carly E, Singh, Lavanya, Coggeshall, Megan, Lind, Margaret, Li, Yichong, Li, Qi, Deng, Kui, Mu, Yi, Deng, Changfei, Yi, Ling, Liu, Zheng, Ma, Xia, Li, Hongtian, Mu, Dezhi, Zhu, Jun, Murray, Christopher J L, and Wang, Haidong

Published
2016
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13. Seq2Seq Surrogates of Epidemic Models to Facilitate Bayesian Inference

Author

Williams, Brian, Chen, Yiling, Neville, Jennifer, Charles, Giovanni, Wolock, Timothy M., Winskill, Peter, Ghani, Azra, Bhatt, Samir, Flaxman, Seth, Williams, Brian, Chen, Yiling, Neville, Jennifer, Charles, Giovanni, Wolock, Timothy M., Winskill, Peter, Ghani, Azra, Bhatt, Samir, and Flaxman, Seth

Abstract

Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference.

Published
2023

14. Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Howes, Adam, primary, Risher, Kathryn A., additional, Nguyen, Van Kính, additional, Stevens, Oliver, additional, Jia, Katherine M., additional, Wolock, Timothy M., additional, Esra, Rachel T., additional, Zembe, Lycias, additional, Wanyeki, Ian, additional, Mahy, Mary, additional, Benedikt, Clemens, additional, Flaxman, Seth R., additional, and Eaton, Jeffrey W., additional

Published
2023
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15. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: quantifying the epidemiological transition

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Barber, Ryan M, Foreman, Kyle J, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, José C, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ameh, Emmanuel A, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, H Ross, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Avila, Marco A, Awuah, Baffour, Bachman, Victoria F, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Basulaiman, Mohammed O, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Biryukov, Stan, Blore, Jed D, Blosser, Christopher D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Bolliger, Ian W, Başara, Berrak Bora, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R A, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol E, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D, Brooks, Peter M, Brown, Jonathan C, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Budke, Christine M, Bulchis, Anne, Bulloch, Andrew G, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Carabin, Hélène, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben E, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Çavlin, Alanur, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coffeng, Luc E, Coggeshall, Megan S, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie T, Coppola, Luis M, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Danawi, Hadi, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davis, Adrian, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Jarlais, Don C Des, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Diaz-Torné, Cesar, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Duber, Herbert C, Ebel, Beth E, Edmond, Karen M, Elshrek, Yousef M, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F, Feigin, Valery L, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Fleming, Thomas D, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Paleo, Urbano Fra., Franklin, Richard C, Fürst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gankpé, Fortuné G, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gething, Peter, Gibney, Katherine B, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Dantes, Hector Gomez, Gona, Philimon, González-Medina, Diego, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Gugnani, Harish C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Haagsma, Juanita, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Hankey, Graeme J, Hansen, Gillian M, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hay, Roderick J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana B, Heuton, Kyle R, Heydarpour, Pouria, Higashi, Hideki, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hosgood, H Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Cheng, Huang, John J, Husseini, Abdullatif, Huynh, Chantal, Iannarone, Marissa L, Iburg, Kim M, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jarvis, Deborah L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, André, Karema, Corine K, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin A, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yunjin, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levitz, Carly E, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lim, Stephen S, Lind, Maggie, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lofgren, Katherine T, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Macintyre, Michael F, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Marcenes, Wagner, Margolis, David J, Margono, Christopher, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad T, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mcgill, Neil W, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mclain, Abigail, Meaney, Peter A, Medina, Catalina, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L D, Monasta, Lorenzo, Hernandez, Julio C Montañez, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Mooney, Meghan D, Moore, Ami R, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moran, Andrew E, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline L, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Mullany, Erin C, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nguyen, Grant, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Ohno, Summer L, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Opio, John Nelson, Ortblad, Katrina, Ortiz, Alberto, Pain, Amanda W, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jae-Hyun, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, Bryan K, Phillips, David E, Piel, Frédéric B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Daniel, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Pullan, Rachel L, Qato, Dima M, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahman, Sajjad U, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reddy, K Srinath, Refaat, Amany, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Roberts, D Allen, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Rowley, Jane T, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Saeedi, Mohammad Y, Saha, Sukanta, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu K A, Sanabria, Juan R, Sandar, Logan, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Scarborough, Peter, Schneider, Ione J, Schöttker, Ben, Schumacher, Austin E, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serina, Peter T, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya A, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Stein, Dan J, Stein, Murray B, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stevens, Antony, Stewart, Andrea, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Ao, Braden J Te, Tediosi, Fabrizio, Temesgen, Awoke M, Templin, Tara, Ten Have, Margreet, Tenkorang, Eric Y, Terkawi, Abdullah S, Thomson, Blake, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, Van Brakel, Wim H, Van De Vijver, Steven, van Gool, Coen H, Van Os, Jim, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wagner, Joseph, Waller, Stephen G, Wan, Xia, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Jianli, Wang, Linhong, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Wenzhi, Wang, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas N, Wolfe, Charles D, Wolock, Timothy M, Woolf, Anthony D, Wulf, Sarah, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Pengpeng, Yentür, Gökalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa E, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zonies, David, Zou, Xiaonong, Salomon, Joshua A, Lopez, Alan D, and Vos, Theo

Published
2015
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16. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Vos, Theo, Barber, Ryan M, Bell, Brad, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Biryukov, Stan, Bolliger, Ian, Charlson, Fiona, Davis, Adrian, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dicker, Daniel, Duan, Leilei, Erskine, Holly, Feigin, Valery L, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Hansen, Gillian M, Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Heuton, Kyle R, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas, Kyu, Hmwe, Laurie, Evan, Liang, Xiofeng, Lofgren, Katherine, Lozano, Rafael, MacIntyre, Michael F, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Naghavi, Mohsen, Nguyen, Grant, Odell, Shaun, Ortblad, Katrina, Roberts, David Allen, Roth, Gregory A, Sandar, Logan, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Steiner, Caitlyn, Thomas, Bernadette, Vollset, Stein Emil, Whiteford, Harvey, Wolock, Timothy M, Ye, Pengpeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ãvila, Marco A, Aasvang, Gunn Marit, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Abd-Allah, Foad, Aziz, Muna I Abdel, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abraham, Biju, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME, Aburto, Tania C, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Adelekan, Ademola, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, Josef C, Arnlov, Johan, Agardh, Emilie E, Al Khabouri, Mazin J, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Aleman, Alicia V, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Peter J, AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Ameli, Omid, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Anderson, H. Ross, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Apfel, Henry, Arsenijevic, Valentain S Arsic, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Atkinson, Charles, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Bakfalouni, Talal, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Balalla, Shivanthi, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Sanjay, Basu, Arindam, Baxter, Amanda, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Blore, Jed D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Basara, Berrak Bora, Borges, Guilherme, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brauer, Michael, Brayne, Carol EG, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas JK, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam DM, Brooks, Peter M, Brown, Jonathan, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Bukhman, Gene, Bulloch, Andrew G, Burch, Michael, Burnett, Richard, Cardenas, Rosario, Cabral, Norberto L, Nonato, Ismael R Campos, Campuzano, Julio C, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Chugh, Sumeet S, Cirillo, Massimo, Coggeshall, Megan, Cohen, Aaron, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Contreras, Alejandra G, Cooper, Leslie T, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooperrider, Kimberly, Coresh, Josef, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Dandona, Rakhi, Dandona, Lalit, Dansereau, Emily, Dantes, Hector G, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De la Cruz-Gongora, Vanessa, de la Vega, Shelley F, De Leo, Diego, del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, deVeber, Gabrielle A, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Diaz-Torne, Cesar, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E R, Driscoll, Tim R, Duber, Herbert, Durrani, Adnan M, Edmond, Karen M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Fahimi, Saman, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek FJ, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferri, Cluesa P, Flaxman, Abraham, Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Franklin, Richard C, Furst, Thomas, Futran, Neal D, Gabbe, Belinda J, Gankpe, Fortune G, Garcia-Guerra, Francisco A, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Gillum, Richard F, Ginawi, Ibrahim A, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Goenka, Shifalika, Goginashvili, Ketevan, Gona, Philimon, de Cosio, Teresita Gonzalez, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Guerrant, Richard l, Gugnani, Harish C, Gunnell, David, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Gutierrez, Reyna A, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Roderick J, Hay, Simon, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Heydarpour, Pouria, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Howard, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, John J, Huang, Cheng, Huiart, Laetitia, Husseini, Abdullatif, Iannarone, Marissa, Iburg, Kim M, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Joseph, Jonathan, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, Andre, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Katz, Ronit, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin AH, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kimokoti, Ruth W, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kissela, Brett M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Kramer, Alexander, Kravchenko, Michael, Krishnamurthi, Rita V, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia EB, Leasher, Janet L, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, liang, Juan, Lim, Stephen, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lind, Margaret, Lindsay, M Patrice, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Lloyd, Belinda K, Ohno, Summer Lockett, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lopez, Alan D, Lopez-Olmedo, Nancy, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Low, Nicola, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Jixiang, Ma, Stefan, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mapoma, Christopher C, Marcenes, Wagner, March, Lyn M, Margono, Chris, Marks, Guy B, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Matzopoulos, Richard G, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, McGill, Neil W, McGrath, John J, McKee, Martin, McLain, Abby, McMahon, Brian J, Meaney, Peter A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Moffitt, Terrie E, Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Moore, Ami R, Moran, Andrew E, Morawska, Lidia, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Paria, Nahas, Ziad, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newman, Lori M, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nhung, Nguyen T, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Ortiz, Alberto, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Parry, Charles D, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pedraza, Lilia S, Pellegrini, Carlos A, Pereira, David M, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, David, Phillips, Bryan, Piel, Frederic B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polanczyk, Guilherme V, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, C A, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Qato, Dima, Quistberg, D A, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rakovac, Ivo, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Refaat, Amany, Rehm, Jurgen, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Riccio, Patricia M, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Riederer, Anne M, Robinson, Margot, Roca, Anna, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Sacco, Ralph L, Ksoreide, Kjetil, Saha, Sukanta, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu, Sanabria, Juan R, Sanchez-Riera, Lidia, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Saunders, James E, Sawhney, Monika, Saylan, Mete I, Scarborough, Peter, Schoettker, Ben, Schneider, Ione JC, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serdar, Berrin, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Levy, Teresa Shamah, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shepard, Donald S, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Speyer, Peter, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stoeckl, Heidi, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Steckling, Nadine, Stein, Murray B, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Timothy J, Stewart, Andrea, Stork, Eden, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sturua, Lela, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tan, Feng, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Te Ao, Braden J, Temesgen, Awoke Misganaw, Have, Margreet Ten, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Theadom, Alice M, Thomas, Elissa, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Tleyjeh, Imad M, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trasande, Leonardo, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Trujillo, Ulises, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, van Brakel, Wim H, van de Vijver, Steven, Dingenen, Rita Van, van Gool, Coen H, Varakin, Yuri Y, Vasankari, Tommi J, Vavilala, Monica S, Veerman, Lennert J, Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vijayakumar, Lakshmi, Villalpando, Salvador, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wan, Xia, Wang, Linhong, Wang, JianLi, Wang, Yanping, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wessells, K. Ryan R, Westerman, Ronny, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Hywel C, Williams, Thomas N, Woldeyohannes, Solomon M, Wolfe, Charles DA, Wong, John Q, Wong, Haidong, Woolf, Anthony D, Wright, Jonathan L, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Gonghuan, Yano, Yuichiro, Yenesew, Muluken A, Yentur, Gokalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Kim, Kim Yun, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Zhang, Yong, Zhao, Zheng, Zhao, Yong, Zhu, Jun, Zonies, David, Zunt, Joseph R, Salomon, Joshua A, and Murray, Christopher JL

Published
2015
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18. Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Howes, Adam, primary, Risher, Kathryn A, additional, Nguyen, Van Kinh, additional, Stevens, Oliver, additional, Jia, Katherine M, additional, Wolock, Timothy M, additional, Esra, Rachel, additional, Zembe, Lycias, additional, Wanyeki, Ian, additional, Mahy, Mary, additional, Benedikt, Clemens, additional, Flaxman, Seth R, additional, and Eaton, Jeffrey W, additional

Published
2022
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21. The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H., Maddison, Emilie R., Henry, Nathaniel J., Mumford, John Everett, Barber, Ryan, Shields, Chloe, Brown, Jonathan C., Nguyen, Grant, Carter, Austin, Wolock, Timothy M., Wang, Haidong, Liu, Patrick Y., Reitsma, Marissa, Ross, Jennifer M., Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbas, Kaja, Abera, Mubarek, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Ahmed, Muktar, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amo-Adjei, Joshua, Andrews, Jason, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo, Anwari, Palwasha, Asayesh, Hamid, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin, Barac, Aleksandra, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bensenor, Isabela, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Butt, Zahid Ahmad, Cardona, Pere-Joan, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Ehrenkranz, Rebecca, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Endries, Aman, Feyissa, Tesfaye R., Fischer, Florian, Gai, Ruoyan, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gesesew, Hailay, Getahun, Belete, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gugnani, Harish, Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Hilawe, Esayas, Horita, Nobuyuki, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jonas, Jost B., Kasaeian, Amir, Sano Kedir, Muktar, Kemmer, Laura, Khader, Yousef, Khan, Ejaz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah T., Kim, Yun Jin, Koul, Parvaiz, Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J., Anil Kumar, G., Kutz, Michael, Lodha, Rakesh, Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan, Majdzadeh, Reza, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Memish, Ziad, Mendoza, Walter, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Mohammed, Shafiu, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oren, Eyal, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron, Pereira, David, Plass, Dietrich, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rao, Puja C., Ray, Sarah E., Reiner, Robert, Reinig, Nickolas, Safiri, Saeid, Salomon, Joshua A., Sandar, Logan, Sartorius, Benn, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shey, Muki, Markos Shifti, Desalegn, Shore, Hirbo, Singh, Jasvinder, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Swaminathan, Soumya, Swartz, Scott J., Tadese, Fentaw, Tedla, Bemnet Amare, Tegegne, Balewgizie Sileshi, Tessema, Belay, Topor-Madry, Roman, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Uthman, Olalekan A., Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wakayo, Tolassa, Weldegebreal, Solomon, Westerman, Ronny, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Naghavi, Mohsen, Hay, Simon I., Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher J.L.

Published
2018

22. The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015'

Author

Murray, Christopher J. L., Kyu, Hmwe H., Maddison, Emilie R., Henry, Nathaniel J., Mumford, John Everett, Barber, Ryan, Shields, Chloe, Brown, Jonathan C., Nguyen, Grant, Carter, Austin, Wolock, Timothy M., Wang, Haidong, Liu, Patrick Y., Reitsma, Marissa, Ross, Jennifer M., Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbas, Kaja, Abera, Mubarek, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Ahmed, Muktar, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amo-Adjei, Joshua, Andrews, Jason, Ansari, Hossein, Antonio, Carl Abelardo, Anwari, Palwasha, Asayesh, Hamid, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin, Barac, Aleksandra, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Bensenor, Isabela, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Butt, Zahid Ahmad, Cardona, Pere-Joan, Christopher, Devasahayam, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Deribe, Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Ehrenkranz, Rebecca, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Endries, Aman, Feyissa, Tesfaye R., Fischer, Florian, Gai, Ruoyan, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Gesesew, Hailay, Getahun, Belete, Gona, Philimon, Goodridge, Amador, Gugnani, Harish, Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hassen, Hamid Yimam, Hilawe, Esayas, Horita, Nobuyuki, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jonas, Jost B., Kasaeian, Amir, Kedir, Muktar Sano, Kemmer, Laura, Khader, Yousef, Khan, Ejaz, Khang, Young-Ho, Khoja, Abdullah T., Kim, Yun Jin, Koul, Parvaiz, Koyanagi, Ai, Krohn, Kristopher J., Kumar, G. Anil, Kutz, Michael, Lodha, Rakesh, Magdy, Hassan, El Razek, Abd, Majdzadeh, Reza, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Memish, Ziad, Mendoza, Walter, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Mohammed, Shafiu, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oren, Eyal, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron, Pereira, David, Plass, Dietrich, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Rafay, Anwar, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rao, Puja C., Ray, Sarah E., Reiner, Robert, Reinig, Nickolas, Safiri, Saeid, Salomon, Joshua A., Sandar, Logan, Sartorius, Benn, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shey, Muki, Shifti, Desalegn Markos, Shore, Hirbo, Singh, Jasvinder, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Swaminathan, Soumya, Swartz, Scott J., Tadese, Fentaw, Tedla, Bemnet Amare, Tegegne, Balewgizie Sileshi, Tessema, Belay, Topor-Madry, Roman, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Uthman, Olalekan A., Vlassov, Vasiliy, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wakayo, Tolassa, Weldegebreal, Solomon, Westerman, Ronny, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Naghavi, Mohsen, Hay, Simon I., and Vos, Theo

Subjects
Alcohol Drinking, Incidence, Smoking, HIV Infections, Smoking Prevention, Global Health, Article, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Diabetes Mellitus, Prevalence, Humans, Tuberculosis, Investments
Abstract

Background An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9.2 million to 11.5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10.1 million (9.2 million to 11.1 million), and the number of deaths was 1.3 million (1.1 million to 1.6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8.8 million (8.0 million to 9.9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8.9 million (8.1 million to 9.7 million), and the number of deaths was 1.1 million (0.9 million to 1.4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (-4.1% [-5.0 to -3.4]) than in incidence (-1.6% [-1.9 to -1.2]) and prevalence (-0.7% [-1.0 to -0.5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11.4% (9.3-13.0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10.6% (6.8-14.8), and smoking accounted for 7.8% (3.8-12.0). Interpretation Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. Copyright (c) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

Published
2018

23. Global and national Burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H., Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A., Brown, Jonathan C., Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J., Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E., Ferrari, Alize J., Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Larson, Heidi J., Lim, Stephen S., Mokdad, Ali H., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V., Roth, Gregory A., Serina, Peter T., Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wolock, Timothy M., Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., AlBuhairan, Fadia S., Amare, Azmeraw T., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barrero, Lope H., Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M., Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A., Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Feigin, Valery L., Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J., Hay, Roderick J., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jayaraman, Sudha P., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B., Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G. Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L., Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E., Lopez, Alan D., Lotufo, Paulo A., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mock, Charles N., Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F., Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B., Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D. Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H., Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S., Schwebel, David C., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Timothy J., Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D., Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J. L., and Vos, Theo

Subjects
L510 Health & Welfare
Abstract

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged

Published
2016

24. Global And National Burden Of Diseases And Injuries Among Children And Adolescents Between 1990 And 2013 Findings From The Global Burden Of Disease 2013 Study

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H., Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A., Brown, Jonathan C., Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J., Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E., Ferrari, Alize J., Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Larson, Heidi J., Lim, Stephen S., Mokdad, Ali H., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V., Roth, Gregory A., Serina, Peter T., Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wolock, Timothy M., Hanson, Sarah Wulf, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., AlBuhairan, Fadia S., Amare, Azmeraw T., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barrero, Lope H., Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M., Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A., Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Feigin, Valery L., Fuerst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J., Hay, Roderick J., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jayaraman, Sudha P., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B., Karch, Andre, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kumar, G. Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L., Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E., Lopez, Alan D., Lotufo, Paulo A., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mock, Charles N., Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F., Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frederic B., Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D. Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H., Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S., Schwebel, David C., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Timothy J., Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D., Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J. L., Vos, Theo, and Çocuk Sağlığı ve Hastalıkları

Subjects
Pediatrics
Abstract

IMPORTANCE The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged < 5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

Published
2016

25. Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study

Author

Global Burden of Disease Pediatrics Collaboration, Kyu, Hmwe H, Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A, Brown, Jonathan C, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J, Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Larson, Heidi J, Lim, Stephen S, Mokdad, Ali H, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V, Roth, Gregory A, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wolock, Timothy M, Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Amare, Azmeraw T, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barrero, Lope H, Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A, Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Feigin, Valery L, Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J, Hay, Roderick J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B, Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E, Lopez, Alan D, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mock, Charles N, Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F, Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S, Schwebel, David C, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Timothy J, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles DA, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher JL, and Vos, Theo

Abstract

IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged

Published
2016

26. Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H, Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A, Brown, Jonathan C, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J, Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Larson, Heidi J, Lim, Stephen S, Mokdad, Ali H, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V, Roth, Gregory A, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wolock, Timothy M, Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Amare, Azmeraw T, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barrero, Lope H, Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A, Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Feigin, Valery L, Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J, Hay, Roderick J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B, Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E, Lopez, Alan D, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mock, Charles N, Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F, Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S, Schwebel, David C, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Timothy J, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D A, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J L, Vos, Theo, Kyu, Hmwe H, Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A, Brown, Jonathan C, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J, Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Larson, Heidi J, Lim, Stephen S, Mokdad, Ali H, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V, Roth, Gregory A, Serina, Peter T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wolock, Timothy M, Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, AlBuhairan, Fadia S, Amare, Azmeraw T, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barrero, Lope H, Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A, Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Feigin, Valery L, Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J, Hay, Roderick J, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jayaraman, Sudha P, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B, Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E, Lopez, Alan D, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mock, Charles N, Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F, Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S, Schwebel, David C, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stein, Dan J, Steiner, Timothy J, Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D A, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J L, and Vos, Theo

Abstract

Importance: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Evidence Review: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron def

Published
2016
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27. Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Ali, Raghib, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alasfoor, Deena, Wolock, Timothy M, Abd-Allah, Foad, Shackelford, Katya A, Heuton, Kyle R, Adelekan, Ademola, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Coggeshall, Megan S, Dicker, Daniel, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Barber, Ryan, Alhabib, Samia, Alla, François, Allen, Peter J, Adsuar, José C, Achoki, Tom, AlMazroa, Mohammad A, Agardh, Emilie E, Gonzalez-Medina, Diego, Akena, Dickens, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu, Ademi, Zanfina, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Huynh, Chantal, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Templin, Tara, and Steiner, Caitlyn

Abstract

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.

Published
2014
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28. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013:quantifying the epidemiological transition

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Barber, Ryan M, Foreman, Kyle J, Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, José C, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ameh, Emmanuel A, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, H Ross, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Avila, Marco A, Awuah, Baffour, Bachman, Victoria F, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Basulaiman, Mohammed O, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Biryukov, Stan, Blore, Jed D, Blosser, Christopher D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Bolliger, Ian W, Bora Başara, Berrak, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R A, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol E, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D, Brooks, Peter, Brown, Jonathan C, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Budke, Christine M, Bulchis, Anne, Bulloch, Andrew G, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Carabin, Hélène, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben E, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Çavlin, Alanur, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coffeng, Luc E, Coggeshall, Megan S, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie T, Coppola, Luis M, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Danawi, Hadi, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davis, Adrian, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Diaz-Torné, Cesar, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Duber, Herbert C, Ebel, Beth E, Edmond, Karen M, Elshrek, Yousef M, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F, Feigin, Valery L, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Fleming, Thomas D, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Paleo, Urbano Fra, Franklin, Richard C, Fürst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gankpé, Fortuné G, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gething, Peter, Gibney, Katherine B, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Gomez Dantes, Hector, Gona, Philimon, González-Medina, Diego, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Gugnani, Harish C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Haagsma, Juanita, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Hankey, Graeme J, Hansen, Gillian M, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmøller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hay, Roderick J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana B, Heuton, Kyle R, Heydarpour, Pouria, Higashi, Hideki, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hosgood, H Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Cheng, Huang, John J, Husseini, Abdullatif, Huynh, Chantal, Iannarone, Marissa L, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jarvis, Deborah L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, André, Karema, Corine K, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin A, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yunjin, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levitz, Carly E, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lim, Stephen S, Lind, Maggie, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lofgren, Katherine T, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Macintyre, Michael F, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Marcenes, Wagner, Margolis, David J, Margono, Christopher, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad T, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mcgill, Neil W, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mclain, Abigail, Meaney, Peter A, Medina, Catalina, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L D, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montañez Hernandez, Julio C, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Mooney, Meghan D, Moore, Ami R, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moran, Andrew E, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline L, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Mullany, Erin C, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nguyen, Grant, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Ohno, Summer L, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Opio, John Nelson, Ortblad, Katrina, Ortiz, Alberto, Pain, Amanda W, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jae-Hyun, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, Bryan K, Phillips, David E, Piel, Frédéric B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Daniel, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Pullan, Rachel L, Qato, Dima M, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahman, Sajjad U, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reddy, K Srinath, Refaat, Amany, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Roberts, D Allen, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Rowley, Jane T, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Saeedi, Mohammad Y, Saha, Sukanta, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu K A, Sanabria, Juan R, Sandar, Logan, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Scarborough, Peter, Schneider, Ione J, Schöttker, Ben, Schumacher, Austin E, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serina, Peter T, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya A, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Shamah Levy, Teresa, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Stein, Dan J, Stein, Murray B, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stevens, Antony, Stewart, Andrea, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Te Ao, Braden J, Tediosi, Fabrizio, Temesgen, Awoke M, Templin, Tara, Ten Have, Margreet, Tenkorang, Eric Y, Terkawi, Abdullah S, Thomson, Blake, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, Van Brakel, Wim H, Van De Vijver, Steven, van Gool, Coen H, Van Os, Jim, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wagner, Joseph, Waller, Stephen G, Wan, Xia, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Jianli, Wang, Linhong, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Wenzhi, Wang, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas N, Wolfe, Charles D, Wolock, Timothy M, Woolf, Anthony D, Wulf, Sarah, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Pengpeng, Yentür, Gökalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa E, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zonies, David, Zou, Xiaonong, Salomon, Joshua A, Lopez, Alan D, Vos, Theo, Murray, Christopher J L, Barber, Ryan M, Foreman, Kyle J, Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw F, Aboyans, Victor, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M, Achoki, Tom, Ackerman, Ilana N, Ademi, Zanfina, Adou, Arsène K, Adsuar, José C, Afshin, Ashkan, Agardh, Emilie E, Alam, Sayed Saidul, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alegretti, Miguel A, Alemu, Zewdie A, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Almazroa, Mohammad A, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T, Ameh, Emmanuel A, Amini, Heresh, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, H Ross, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Arnlöv, Johan, Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S, Artaman, Al, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Avila, Marco A, Awuah, Baffour, Bachman, Victoria F, Badawi, Alaa, Bahit, Maria C, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L, Barquera, Simon, Barregard, Lars, Barrero, Lope H, Basu, Arindam, Basu, Sanjay, Basulaiman, Mohammed O, Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Benjet, Corina, Bennett, Derrick A, Bensenor, Isabela M, Benzian, Habib, Bernabé, Eduardo, Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Beyene, Tariku J, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Bienhoff, Kelly, Bikbov, Boris, Biryukov, Stan, Blore, Jed D, Blosser, Christopher D, Blyth, Fiona M, Bohensky, Megan A, Bolliger, Ian W, Bora Başara, Berrak, Bornstein, Natan M, Bose, Dipan, Boufous, Soufiane, Bourne, Rupert R A, Boyers, Lindsay N, Brainin, Michael, Brayne, Carol E, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J K, Brenner, Hermann, Briggs, Adam D, Brooks, Peter, Brown, Jonathan C, Brugha, Traolach S, Buchbinder, Rachelle, Buckle, Geoffrey C, Budke, Christine M, Bulchis, Anne, Bulloch, Andrew G, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R, Carabin, Hélène, Carapetis, Jonathan R, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carpenter, David O, Caso, Valeria, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Castro, Ruben E, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cavalleri, Fiorella, Çavlin, Alanur, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J, Chen, Honglei, Chen, Wanqing, Chiang, Peggy P, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Christensen, Hanne, Christophi, Costas A, Cirillo, Massimo, Coates, Matthew M, Coffeng, Luc E, Coggeshall, Megan S, Colistro, Valentina, Colquhoun, Samantha M, Cooke, Graham S, Cooper, Cyrus, Cooper, Leslie T, Coppola, Luis M, Cortinovis, Monica, Criqui, Michael H, Crump, John A, Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia, Danawi, Hadi, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dansereau, Emily, Dargan, Paul I, Davey, Gail, Davis, Adrian, Davitoiu, Dragos V, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Dellavalle, Robert P, Deribe, Kebede, Derrett, Sarah, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dherani, Mukesh K, Diaz-Torné, Cesar, Dicker, Daniel, Ding, Eric L, Dokova, Klara, Dorsey, E Ray, Driscoll, Tim R, Duan, Leilei, Duber, Herbert C, Ebel, Beth E, Edmond, Karen M, Elshrek, Yousef M, Endres, Matthias, Ermakov, Sergey P, Erskine, Holly E, Eshrati, Babak, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fay, Derek F, Feigin, Valery L, Felson, David T, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Jefferson G, Ferrari, Alize J, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D, Fleming, Thomas D, Foigt, Nataliya, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fowkes, F Gerry R, Paleo, Urbano Fra, Franklin, Richard C, Fürst, Thomas, Gabbe, Belinda, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gankpé, Fortuné G, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gething, Peter, Gibney, Katherine B, Giroud, Maurice, Giussani, Giorgia, Gomez Dantes, Hector, Gona, Philimon, González-Medina, Diego, Gosselin, Richard A, Gotay, Carolyn C, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Graetz, Nicholas, Gugnani, Harish C, Gupta, Rahul, Gupta, Rajeev, Gutiérrez, Reyna A, Haagsma, Juanita, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hagan, Holly, Halasa, Yara A, Hamadeh, Randah R, Hamavid, Hannah, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hancock, Jamie, Hankey, Graeme J, Hansen, Gillian M, Hao, Yuantao, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmøller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hay, Roderick J, Heredia-Pi, Ileana B, Heuton, Kyle R, Heydarpour, Pouria, Higashi, Hideki, Hijar, Martha, Hoek, Hans W, Hoffman, Howard J, Hosgood, H Dean, Hossain, Mazeda, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Hsairi, Mohamed, Hu, Guoqing, Huang, Cheng, Huang, John J, Husseini, Abdullatif, Huynh, Chantal, Iannarone, Marissa L, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Innos, Kaire, Inoue, Manami, Islami, Farhad, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jarvis, Deborah L, Jassal, Simerjot K, Jee, Sun Ha, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jiang, Ying, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Karch, André, Karema, Corine K, Karimkhani, Chante, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Kassebaum, Nicholas J, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazanjan, Konstantin, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre P, Keren, Andre, Khader, Yousef S, Khalifa, Shams Eldin A, Khan, Ejaz A, Khan, Gulfaraz, Khang, Young-Ho, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kim, Yunjin, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Kivipelto, Miia, Knibbs, Luke D, Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, Soewarta, Krishnaswami, Sanjay, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kuipers, Ernst J, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kumar, G Anil, Kyu, Hmwe H, Lai, Taavi, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lallukka, Tea, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larsson, Anders, Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B, Leasher, Janet L, Leigh, James, Leung, Ricky, Levitz, Carly E, Li, Bin, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, Lim, Stephen S, Lind, Maggie, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lofgren, Katherine T, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Looker, Katharine J, Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie, Lotufo, Paulo A, Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Robyn M, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A, Ma, Stefan, Macintyre, Michael F, Mackay, Mark T, Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Marcenes, Wagner, Margolis, David J, Margono, Christopher, Marzan, Melvin B, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad T, Matzopoulos, Richard, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mcgill, Neil W, Mcgrath, John J, Mckee, Martin, Mclain, Abigail, Meaney, Peter A, Medina, Catalina, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mekonnen, Wubegzier, Melaku, Yohannes A, Meltzer, Michele, Memish, Ziad A, Mensah, George A, Meretoja, Atte, Mhimbira, Francis A, Micha, Renata, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mitchell, Philip B, Mock, Charles N, Mohamed Ibrahim, Norlinah, Mohammad, Karzan A, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen L D, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montañez Hernandez, Julio C, Montico, Marcella, Montine, Thomas J, Mooney, Meghan D, Moore, Ami R, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moran, Andrew E, Mori, Rintaro, Moschandreas, Joanna, Moturi, Wilkister N, Moyer, Madeline L, Mozaffarian, Dariush, Msemburi, William T, Mueller, Ulrich O, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Mullany, Erin C, Murdoch, Michele E, Murray, Joseph, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nand, Devina, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nejjari, Chakib, Neupane, Sudan P, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Ngalesoni, Frida N, Nguyen, Grant, Nisar, Muhammad I, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Norman, Rosana E, Norrving, Bo, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Ohno, Summer L, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Opio, John Nelson, Ortblad, Katrina, Ortiz, Alberto, Pain, Amanda W, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Panelo, Carlo Irwin A, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jae-Hyun, Patten, Scott B, Patton, George C, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris I, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Perico, Norberto, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Peterson, Carrie B, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael R, Phillips, Bryan K, Phillips, David E, Piel, Frédéric B, Plass, Dietrich, Poenaru, Dan, Polinder, Suzanne, Pope, Daniel, Popova, Svetlana, Poulton, Richie G, Pourmalek, Farshad, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prasad, Noela M, Pullan, Rachel L, Qato, Dima M, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahman, Sajjad U, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reddy, K Srinath, Refaat, Amany, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Resnikoff, Serge, Ribeiro, Antonio L, Richardson, Lee, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Roberts, D Allen, Rojas-Rueda, David, Ronfani, Luca, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H, Rowley, Jane T, Roy, Nobhojit, Ruhago, George M, Saeedi, Mohammad Y, Saha, Sukanta, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sampson, Uchechukwu K A, Sanabria, Juan R, Sandar, Logan, Santos, Itamar S, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Scarborough, Peter, Schneider, Ione J, Schöttker, Ben, Schumacher, Austin E, Schwebel, David C, Scott, James G, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Serina, Peter T, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Shackelford, Katya A, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Shamah Levy, Teresa, Shangguan, Siyi, She, Jun, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shinohara, Yukito, Shiri, Rahman, Shishani, Kawkab, Shiue, Ivy, Shrime, Mark G, Sigfusdottir, Inga D, Silberberg, Donald H, Simard, Edgar P, Sindi, Shireen, Singh, Abhishek, Singh, Jasvinder A, Singh, Lavanya, Skirbekk, Vegard, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Søreide, Kjetil, Soshnikov, Sergey, Sposato, Luciano A, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stanaway, Jeffrey D, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Stein, Dan J, Stein, Murray B, Steiner, Caitlyn, Steiner, Timothy J, Stevens, Antony, Stewart, Andrea, Stovner, Lars J, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Sunguya, Bruno F, Swaminathan, Soumya, Swaroop, Mamta, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Takahashi, Ken, Tandon, Nikhil, Tanne, David, Tanner, Marcel, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taylor, Hugh R, Te Ao, Braden J, Tediosi, Fabrizio, Temesgen, Awoke M, Templin, Tara, Ten Have, Margreet, Tenkorang, Eric Y, Terkawi, Abdullah S, Thomson, Blake, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Thrift, Amanda G, Thurston, George D, Tillmann, Taavi, Tonelli, Marcello, Topouzis, Fotis, Toyoshima, Hideaki, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Trillini, Matias, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Tuzcu, Emin M, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Uzun, Selen B, Van Brakel, Wim H, Van De Vijver, Steven, van Gool, Coen H, Van Os, Jim, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy V, Vollset, Stein Emil, Wagner, Gregory R, Wagner, Joseph, Waller, Stephen G, Wan, Xia, Wang, Haidong, Wang, Jianli, Wang, Linhong, Warouw, Tati S, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Wenzhi, Wang, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas N, Wolfe, Charles D, Wolock, Timothy M, Woolf, Anthony D, Wulf, Sarah, Wurtz, Brittany, Xu, Gelin, Yan, Lijing L, Yano, Yuichiro, Ye, Pengpeng, Yentür, Gökalp K, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z, Yu, Chuanhua, Zaki, Maysaa E, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zonies, David, Zou, Xiaonong, Salomon, Joshua A, Lopez, Alan D, and Vos, Theo

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development.METHODS: We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time.FINDINGS: Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs

Published
2015

29. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Murray, Christopher J L, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Driscoll, Tim R, Durrani, Adnan M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fra Paleo, Urbano, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Hoek, Hans W, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Huang, John J, Iburg, Kim M, Idrisov, Bulat T, Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi J, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lotufo, Paulo A, Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Papachristou, Christina, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J, Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J C, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H, Silva, Andrea P, Simard, Edgar P, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Vallely, Andrew J, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Sharon Xiaorong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D, Vos, Theo, Murray, Christopher J L, Ortblad, Katrina F, Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S, Wolock, Timothy M, Roberts, D Allen, Dansereau, Emily A, Graetz, Nicholas, Barber, Ryan M, Brown, Jonathan C, Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C, Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A, Heuton, Kyle R, Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E, Fleming, Thomas D, Flaxman, Abraham D, Phillips, Bryan K, Johnson, Elizabeth K, Coggeshall, Megan S, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P, Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C, Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dickens, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J, Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I, Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francois, Allen, Peter J, Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A, Amare, Azmeraw T, Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T, Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic, Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J, Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L, Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A, Abdulhak, Aref Bin, Binagwaho, Agnes, Blore, Jed D, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K, Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercedes, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyrus, Courville, Karen J, Cowie, Benjamin C, Criqui, Michael H, Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C, Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D, Dilmen, Uğur, Ding, Eric L, Driscoll, Tim R, Durrani, Adnan M, Ellenbogen, Richard G, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, Fra Paleo, Urbano, Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M, Gessner, Bradford D, Gibney, Katherine B, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L, Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J, Harb, Hilda L, Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hay, Simon I, Hedayati, Mohammad T, Pi, Ileana B Heredia, Hoek, Hans W, Hornberger, John C, Hosgood, H Dean, Hotez, Peter J, Hoy, Damian G, Huang, John J, Iburg, Kim M, Idrisov, Bulat T, Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N, Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B, Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S, Kemp, Andrew H, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kinge, Jonas M, Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S, Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kulkarni, Veena S, Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B, Kumar, G Anil, Kwan, Gene F, Lai, Taavi, Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C, Larson, Heidi J, Larsson, Anders, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, James, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E, Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K, Lotufo, Paulo A, Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H, Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barrientos, Masci, Joseph R, Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J, Mayosi, Bongani M, Mazorodze, Tasara T, Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A, Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R, Mills, Edward J, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H, Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R, Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S, Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K M Venkat, Nash, Denis, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G, Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R, Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F, Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O, Omer, Saad B, Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D, Papachristou, Christina, Caicedo, Angel J Paternina, Patten, Scott B, Paul, Vinod K, Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M, Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D, Quistberg, D Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M, Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J, Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J C, Schwebel, David C, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G, Servan-Mori, Edson E, Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H, Silva, Andrea P, Simard, Edgar P, Singh, Jasvinder A, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L, Tabb, Karen M, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J, Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X, Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis, Uchendu, Uche S, Ukwaja, Kingsley N, Vallely, Andrew J, Vasankari, Tommi J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, Francesco S, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T, Wang, Linhong, Wang, Sharon Xiaorong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G, Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A, Wilkinson, James D, Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q, Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C, Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D, and Vos, Theo

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (, Correction in: Lancet, vol. 384, article nr. 9947, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61632-9

Published
2014
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30. Global and national Burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013

Author

Kyu, Hmwe H., Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A., Brown, Jonathan C., Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J., Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E., Ferrari, Alize J., Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Larson, Heidi J., Lim, Stephen S., Mokdad, Ali H., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V., Roth, Gregory A., Serina, Peter T., Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wolock, Timothy M., Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., AlBuhairan, Fadia S., Amare, Azmeraw T., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barrero, Lope H., Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M., Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A., Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Feigin, Valery L., Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J., Hay, Roderick J., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jayaraman, Sudha P., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B., Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G. Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L., Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E., Lopez, Alan D., Lotufo, Paulo A., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mock, Charles N., Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F., Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B., Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D. Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H., Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S., Schwebel, David C., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Timothy J., Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D., Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J. L., Vos, Theo, Kyu, Hmwe H., Pinho, Christine, Wagner, Joseph A., Brown, Jonathan C., Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia, Charlson, Fiona J., Coffeng, Luc Edgar, Dandona, Lalit, Erskine, Holly E., Ferrari, Alize J., Fitzmaurice, Christina, Fleming, Thomas D., Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Graetz, Nicholas, Guinovart, Caterina, Haagsma, Juanita, Higashi, Hideki, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Larson, Heidi J., Lim, Stephen S., Mokdad, Ali H., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Odell, Shaun V., Roth, Gregory A., Serina, Peter T., Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Misganaw, Awoke, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wolock, Timothy M., Wulf Hanson, Sarah, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., AlBuhairan, Fadia S., Amare, Azmeraw T., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Artaman, Al, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Barrero, Lope H., Benjet, Corina, Bensenor, Isabela M., Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bikbov, Boris, Brazinova, Alexandra, Campos-Nonato, Ismael, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chowdhury, Rajiv, Cooper, Cyrus, Crump, John A., Dandona, Rakhi, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dellavalle, Robert P., Dharmaratne, Samath D., Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Feigin, Valery L., Fürst, Thomas, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Goto, Atsushi, Gunnell, David, Hankey, Graeme J., Hay, Roderick J., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hu, Guoqing, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jayaraman, Sudha P., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jonas, Jost B., Karch, André, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Sungroul, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kumar, G. Anil, Larsson, Anders, Leasher, Janet L., Leung, Ricky, Li, Yongmei, Lipshultz, Steven E., Lopez, Alan D., Lotufo, Paulo A., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Lyons, Ronan A., Majdan, Marek, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mashal, Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mock, Charles N., Murray, Joseph, Nolte, Sandra, Oh, In-Hwan, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Ortblad, Katrina F., Park, Eun-Kee, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Patton, George C., Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Piel, Frédéric B., Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Pourmalek, Farshad, Quistberg, D. Alex, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Rodriguez, Alina, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rothstein, David H., Sanabria, Juan, Santos, Itamar S., Schwebel, David C., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Shaheen, Amira, Shiri, Rahman, Shiue, Ivy, Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Timothy J., Stovner, Lars Jacob, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey Allen, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Werdecker, Andrea, Wilkinson, James D., Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Yano, Yuichiro, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa Z., Yu, Chuanhua, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Naghavi, Mohsen, Murray, Christopher J. L., and Vos, Theo

Abstract

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency

31. Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Thokozani Kalua, Megan O'Driscoll, Alexandra Hill, Nathan Heard, Ian Fellows, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Taylor Okonek, Jon Wakefield, Matthew L. Thomas, Ray W. Shiraishi, Mary Mahy, Danielle Payne, Evelyn Kim, Oliver Stevens, Timothy M. Wolock, Andrew F. Auld, Leigh F. Johnson, John Stover, Steve Gutreuter, Stephen Delgado, Tiwonge Chimpandule, Mark Woodbridge, Robert Glaubius, Emily Haeuser, Richard G. FitzJohn, Rachel Esra, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Emma Russell, Andreas Jahn, Tomasz Sabala, Rob Ashton, Nicolas Dolan, Yusuf O Anifowoshe, Jonathan Berry, Ian Wanyeki, Sumali Bajaj, Eaton, Jeffrey W [0000-0001-7728-728X], Stevens, Oliver [0000-0001-6842-9434], Glaubius, Robert [0000-0002-4936-0264], Stover, John [0000-0001-7236-1989], Wolock, Timothy M [0000-0001-5898-1014], Johnson, Leigh F [0000-0002-2717-011X], Mahy, Mary I [0000-0001-6023-3023], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, National Institutes of Health, UNAIDS, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council (MRC), Eaton, Jeffrey W. [0000-0001-7728-728X], Wolock, Timothy M. [0000-0001-5898-1014], Johnson, Leigh F. [0000-0002-2717-011X], and Mahy, Mary I. [0000-0001-6023-3023]

Subjects
Adult, Male, Supplement: Research Articles, Malawi, Sub saharan, Service delivery framework, Hiv epidemic, Immunology, HIV Infections, Bayesian statistics, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, small‐area estimation, Small area estimation, ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY, Pregnancy, Environmental health, Prevalence, Medicine, Humans, Epidemics, Estimation, HIV estimates, Advancing methods for global HIV estimates. Guest Editors: Mathieu Maheu‐Giroux, Andrea L. Ciaranello, Joshua A. Salomon, Annette H. Sohn, Science & Technology, business.industry, Incidence (epidemiology), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 1103 Clinical Sciences, joint modelling, small-area estimation, Bayes Theorem, Metropolitan area, routine data, Infectious Diseases, Anti-Retroviral Agents, Female, business, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, District level, 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences, Research Article
Abstract

Funder: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100018734, Introduction: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small‐area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five‐year age groups. Methods: Small‐area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district‐level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016–2018. Results: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty‐eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city. Conclusions: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Published
2021

32. Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023.

Author

Esra R, Mmelesi M, Ketlogetswe AT, Wolock TM, Howes A, Nong T, Matlhaga MT, Ratladi S, Ramaabya D, and Imai-Eaton JW

Subjects
Adult, Humans, Bayes Theorem, Anti-Retroviral Agents therapeutic use, Botswana, Government Programs, HIV Infections drug therapy
Abstract

Background: Quantifying subnational need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is challenging because people living with HIV (PLHIV) access health facilities in areas that may differ from their residence. We defined and demonstrated new indicators for PLHIV treatment needed to guide health system target setting and resource allocation., Setting: Botswana., Methods: We extended Naomi, a Bayesian small-area model for estimating district-level HIV indicators from national household survey and HIV service delivery data. We used model outputs for ART seeking probabilities in neighboring districts to define the "PLHIV (attending)" indicator representing the estimated number of PLHIV who would seek treatment at health facilities in a district, and "Untreated PLHIV attending" representing gaps in ART service provision. Botswana 2021 district HIV estimates were used to demonstrate new outputs and assess the sensitivity to uncertainty in district population sizes., Results: Across districts of Botswana, estimated adult ART coverage in December 2021 ranged 90%-96%. In the capital city Gaborone, there were 50,400 resident PLHIV and 64,200 receiving ART, of whom 24% (95% CI: 20 to 32) were estimated to reside in neighboring districts. Applying ART attendance probabilities gave a "PLHIV attending" denominator of 68,300 and unmet treatment need of 4100 adults (95% CI: 3000 to 5500) for Gaborone health facilities. The facility-based "PLHIV attending" denominator was less-sensitive to fluctuations in district population size assumptions., Conclusions: New indicators provided more consistent targets for HIV service provision, but are limited by ART data quality. This challenge will increase as treatment coverage reaches high levels and treatment gaps are smaller., Competing Interests: The authors have no funding or conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Published
2024
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33. Subnational HIV incidence trends in Malawi: large, heterogeneous declines across space.

Author

Wolock TM, Flaxman S, Chimpandule T, Mbiriyawanda S, Jahn A, Nyirenda R, and Eaton JW

Abstract

The rate of new HIV infections globally has decreased substantially from its peak in the late 1990s, but the epidemic persists and remains highest in many countries in eastern and southern Africa. Previous research hypothesised that, as the epidemic recedes, it will become increasingly concentrated among sub-populations and geographic areas where transmission is the highest and that are least effectively reached by treatment and prevention services. However, empirical data on subnational HIV incidence trends is sparse, and the local transmission rates in the context of effective treatment scale-up are unknown. In this work, we developed a novel Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic model to estimate adult HIV prevalence, incidence and treatment coverage at the district level in Malawi from 2010 through the end of 2021. We found that HIV incidence decreased in every district of Malawi between 2010 and 2021 but the rate of decline varied by area. National-level treatment coverage more than tripled between 2010 and 2021 and more than doubled in every district. Large increases in treatment coverage were associated with declines in HIV transmission, with 12 districts having incidence-prevalence ratios of 0.03 or less (a previously suggested threshold for epidemic control). Across districts, incidence varied more than HIV prevalence and ART coverage, suggesting that the epidemic is becoming increasingly spatially concentrated. Our results highlight the success of the Malawi HIV treatment programme over the past decade, with large improvements in treatment coverage leading to commensurate declines in incidence. More broadly, we demonstrate the utility of spatially resolved HIV modelling in generalized epidemic settings. By estimating temporal changes in key epidemic indicators at a relatively fine spatial resolution, we were able to directly assess, for the first time, whether the ART scaleup in Malawi resulted in spatial gaps or hotspots. Regular use of this type of analysis will allow HIV program managers to monitor the equity of their treatment and prevention programmes and their subnational progress towards epidemic control.

Published
2023
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34. Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.

Author

Kyu HH, Pinho C, Wagner JA, Brown JC, Bertozzi-Villa A, Charlson FJ, Coffeng LE, Dandona L, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Forouzanfar MH, Graetz N, Guinovart C, Haagsma J, Higashi H, Kassebaum NJ, Larson HJ, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Odell SV, Roth GA, Serina PT, Stanaway JD, Misganaw A, Whiteford HA, Wolock TM, Wulf Hanson S, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abu-Raddad LJ, AlBuhairan FS, Amare AT, Antonio CA, Artaman A, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Benjet C, Bensenor IM, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Brazinova A, Campos-Nonato I, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chowdhury R, Cooper C, Crump JA, Dandona R, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Dharmaratne SD, Faraon EJ, Feigin VL, Fürst T, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Goto A, Gunnell D, Hankey GJ, Hay RJ, Hornberger JC, Hosgood HD, Hu G, Jacobsen KH, Jayaraman SP, Jeemon P, Jonas JB, Karch A, Kim D, Kim S, Kokubo Y, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Larsson A, Leasher JL, Leung R, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Lopez AD, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Majdan M, Malekzadeh R, Mashal T, Mason-Jones AJ, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Miller TR, Mock CN, Murray J, Nolte S, Oh IH, Olusanya BO, Ortblad KF, Park EK, Paternina Caicedo AJ, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Piel FB, Polinder S, Popova S, Pourmalek F, Quistberg DA, Remuzzi G, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Rothenbacher D, Rothstein DH, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Shaheen A, Shiri R, Shiue I, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Sykes BL, Tabb KM, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Towbin JA, Ukwaja KN, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wilkinson JD, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CD, Yano Y, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, El Sayed Zaki M, Naghavi M, Murray CJ, and Vos T

Subjects
Adolescent, Adolescent Health statistics & numerical data, Bayes Theorem, Child, Child Health statistics & numerical data, Child Mortality trends, Child, Preschool, Female, Global Health statistics & numerical data, Humans, Male, Prevalence, Public Health Surveillance, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Adolescent Health trends, Child Health trends, Cost of Illness, Developed Countries statistics & numerical data, Developing Countries statistics & numerical data, Global Health trends, Wounds and Injuries epidemiology
Abstract

Importance: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce., Objective: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study., Evidence Review: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates., Findings: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia., Conclusions and Relevance: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr. Kassebaum reports personal fees and non-financial support from Vifor Pharmaceuticals, Axon Communications LLC and Merck & Co outside the submitted work. KPG was awarded the NHMRC-Gustav Nossal Postgraduate Award sponsored by CSL; this award is peer reviewed and CSL had no part in selecting the awardee. Prof. Lotufo reports honoraria (modest) from Abbvie for one lecture. Walter Mendoza is program analyst at the UNFPA country office in Peru, which not necessarily endorses the study. Prof. Santos reports receiving a grant from São Paulo Research Foundation/FAPESP (Brazilian governmental research agency) for research purposes. In the past 3 years, Dr. Stein has received research grants and/or consultancy honoraria from AMBRF, Biocodex, Cipla, Lundbeck, National Responsible Gambling Foundation, Novartis, Servier, and Sun. No other conflicts are reported.

Published
2016
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