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Guided by argumentation schema theory, we conducted five psychological studies in the United States and China on arguments about vaccination. Study 1 replicated research about arguments on several topics, finding that agreement judgments are weighted toward claims, whereas quality judgments are weighted toward reasons. However, consistent with recent research, when this paradigm was extended to arguments about vaccination (Study 2), claims received more weight than reasons in judgments about agreement and quality. Studies 3 and 4 were conducted in the United States and China on how people process counterarguments against anti-vaccination assertions. Rebuttals did not influence agreement but played a role in argument quality judgments. Both political position (in the United States) and medical education (in China) predicted differences in argument evaluation. Bad reasons lowered agreement (Study 5), especially among participants studying health care. Political polarization apparently heightens the impact of claim side in the argumentation schema, likely to the detriment of public discourse.

Although basing instruction on learning trajectories (LTs) is often recommended, there is little direct evidence regarding the premise of a LT approach--that instruction should be presented (only) one LT level beyond a child's present level. We evaluated this hypothesis in the domain of early shape composition. One group of preschoolers, who were at least two levels below the target instructional LT level, received instruction based on an empirically validated LT. The counterfactual (skip-levels) group received an equal amount of instruction focused only on the target level. At posttest, children in the LT condition exhibited significantly greater learning than children in the skip-levels condition, mainly on near-transfer items; no child-level variables were significant moderators. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. [For the corresponding grantee submission, see ED594902.]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by misinformation, politicization of public health, and extreme differences in risk assessment. In two studies, we sought to understand factors that contribute to differences in people's understanding of the virus and associated risks. We found that conservative participants reported higher levels of acceptable risk, have lower risk estimates of activities, and endorsed more misinformation. Participants with personal health risk factors rated COVID-19 risks as higher, more reflective participants had lower acceptable risk levels, and impulsive participants endorsed more misinformation. In our second study, we also found that reflective participants were more likely to wear a mask, get vaccinated, and maintain social distancing, and that participants judged arguments about COVID-19 measures largely based on the claim rather than supporting reasons. By clarifying these individual differences, public health experts can more effectively create targeted interventions for at risk populations, and be better prepared for future outbreaks.

We developed a method for using Coh-Metrix to automatically analyze tutorial dialogues. Coh-Metrix, a web-based tool for automatically evaluating text, is freely available to researchers. We applied the method to 190 tutorial dialogues between women and "BRCA Gist" from two experiments. "BRCA Gist" is an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) to help women make decisions about genetic testing for breast cancer risk. Tutorial dialogues scored high on measures of textual cohesion (deep cohesion, referential cohesion, and the composite variable formality). They also scored high on measures of the situation model (LSA verb overlap and causal verb and causal particle). However, there was mixed support for the hypothesis that higher scores on Coh-Metrix variables would predict subsequent comprehension. A Coh-Metrix principle is that the observable cohesion of a text is a reliable guide to the coherence of the reader's mental representation of that text. Thus it appears that interacting with "BRCA Gist" helped people form coherent mental representations of complex medical materials. We conclude that Coh-Metrix can be used to reliably assess tutorial dialogues and make inferences about the mental representations of people engaged in conversation with an ITS based on observable characteristics of the statements people make.

Students in a course on the psychology of language and thought first wrote flash fiction stories and analyzed them using course concepts. As an experiential learning exercise, they subsequently analyzed those stories for a number of psycholinguistic variables using the discourse technology Coh-Metrix. Their assignment was to change a number of specific variables by at least one standard deviation. The assignment proved challenging to students and was subsequently revised. Evidence--from anonymous student surveys, focus groups, end-of-semester course evaluations, and performance on the assignment itself--suggests that students gained an intuitive feel for psycholinguistic concepts and this emerging discourse technology.

AbstractThe time-mean zonal and meridional overturning circulations of the entire Mediterranean Sea are studied in both the Eulerian and residual frameworks. The overturning is characterized by cells in the vertical and either zonal or meridional planes with clockwise circulations in the upper water column and counterclockwise circulations in the deep and abyssal regions. The zonal overturning is composed of an upper clockwise cell in the top 600 m of the water column related to the classical Wüst cell and two additional deep clockwise cells, one corresponding to the outflow of the dense Aegean water during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) and the other associated with dense water formation in the Rhodes Gyre. The variability of the zonal overturning before, during, and after the EMT is discussed. The meridional basinwide overturning is composed of clockwise, multicentered cells connected with the four northern deep ocean formation areas, located in the Eastern and Western Mediterranean basins. The connection between the Wüst cell and the meridional overturning is visualized through the horizontal velocities vertically integrated across two layers above 600 m. The component of the horizontal velocity associated with the overturning is isolated by computing the divergent components of the vertically integrated velocities forced by the inflow/outflow at the Strait of Gibraltar.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it was important for people to be able to comprehend information about mRNA vaccination. Moderna and Pfizer were two of the largest distributors of mRN vaccinations, and their websites provided information about how mRNA vaccinations work. Applying the tenets of Fuzzy-trace Theory (FTT), we calculated Gist Inference Scores (GIS) to assess the extent to which texts taken from Moderna and Pfizer websites facilitate gist comprehension. We then rewrote the Moderna and Pfizer texts to increase GIS and tested their ability to facilitate a reader’s understanding of how mRNA vaccinations work. We conducted two experiments in which participants read original Moderna and Pfizer texts, a High GIS-version presenting the same content, or control texts on unrelated topics. Findings indicate that the High GIS-version increased comprehension. We conclude that this theory-driven approach can help subject-matter experts better communicate important information, allowing readers to “get the gist” of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to promote best practices regarding mathematics teaching and learning at the preschool level, national advisory panels and organizations have emphasized the importance of children's emergent counting and related competencies, such as the ability to verbally count, maintain one-to-one correspondence, count with cardinality, subitize, and count forward or backward from a given number. However, little research has investigated whether the kind of mathematical knowledge promoted by the various standards documents actually predict later mathematics achievement. The present study uses longitudinal data from a primarily low-income and minority sample of children to examine the extent to which preschool mathematical competencies, specifically basic and advanced counting, predict fifth grade mathematics achievement. Using regression analyses, we find early numeracy abilities to be the strongest predictors of later mathematics achievement, with advanced counting competencies more predictive than basic counting competencies. Our results highlight the significance of preschool mathematics knowledge for future academic achievement.

"You Live in a Watershed" is a state park exhibit about watersheds. We conducted a two-pronged assessment of learning and attitudes. Study 1 employed a pretest-intervention-posttest design with 30 children visiting the exhibit on a fieldtrip. We found significant increases in knowledge and attitudes. Study 2 was a quasi-experimental comparison of 84 park visitors who interacted with the exhibit or did not. Exhibit visitors demonstrated more knowledge than other Nature Center visitors. Visitors came to the exhibit with strong positive attitudes and beliefs about lakes and water quality, but showed a lack of knowledge about watersheds that the exhibit ameliorated.

AbstractAn intrinsic mode of self-sustained, interannual variability is identified in a coarse-resolution ocean model forced by an annually repeating atmospheric state. The variability has maximum loading in the Indian Ocean, with a significant projection into the South Atlantic Ocean. It is argued that this intrinsic mode is caused by baroclinic instability of the model’s Leeuwin Current, which radiates out to the tropical Indian and South Atlantic Oceans as long Rossby waves at a period of 4 yr. This previously undescribed mode has a remarkably narrowband time series. However, the variability is not synchronized with the annual cycle; the phase of the oscillation varies chaotically on decadal time scales. The presence of this internal mode reduces the predictability of the ocean circulation by obscuring the response to forcing or initial condition perturbations. The signature of this mode can be seen in higher-resolution global ocean models driven by high-frequency atmospheric forcing, but altimeter and assimilation analyses do not show obvious signatures of such a mode, perhaps because of insufficient duration.

Mixing along isopycnals plays an important role in the transport and uptake of oceanic tracers. Isopycnal mixing is commonly quantified by a tracer diffusivity. Previous studies have estimated the tracer diffusivity using the rate of dispersion of surface drifters, subsurface floats, or numerical particles advected by satellite‐derived velocity fields. This study shows that the diffusivity can be more efficiently estimated from the dispersion of coherent mesoscale eddies. Coherent eddies are identified and tracked as the persistent sea surface height extrema in both a two‐layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model and an idealized primitive equation (PE) model. The Lagrangian diffusivity is estimated using the tracks of these coherent eddies and compared to the diagnosed Eulerian diffusivity. It is found that the meridional coherent eddy diffusivity approaches a stable value within about 20–40 days in both models. In the QG model, the coherent eddy diffusivity is a good approximation to the upper‐layer tracer diffusivity in a broad range of flow regimes, except for small values of bottom friction or planetary vorticity gradient, where the motions of same‐sign eddies are correlated over long distances. In the PE model, the tracer diffusivity has a complicated vertical structure and the coherent eddy diffusivity is correlated with the tracer diffusivity at the e‐folding depth of the energy‐containing eddies where the intrinsic speed of the coherent eddies matches the rms eddy velocity. These results suggest that the oceanic tracer diffusivity at depth can be estimated from the movements of coherent mesoscale eddies, which are routinely tracked from satellite observations. Plain Language Summary: Ocean mesoscale eddies are swirling currents with size of 10–100 km. Mesoscale eddies mix heat, carbon, and other tracers along constant density surfaces, which impacts the ocean environment and global climate. Tracer mixing is commonly represented by an eddy diffusivity, which relates the eddy tracer mixing to the large‐scale properties in coarse‐resolution ocean models. Estimates of tracer diffusivity are important for evaluating and improving the representation of mesoscale eddies in models. Mesoscale eddies commonly take the form of individual swirls that move randomly over long distances and last for several months. This study finds that the tracer diffusivity can be accurately estimated from the movement of individual mesoscale eddies in highly idealized numerical simulations. Horizontal mixing is strong when eddies spread out quickly. In more realistic situations, the rate at which eddies spread is correlated with the tracer diffusivity at a depth where the eddy movement speed is close to the swirling velocity. This finding can be used to estimate the oceanic tracer diffusivity using the trajectories of mesoscale eddies from satellite observations. Key Points: Oceanic lateral diffusivity is estimated by the dispersion rate of coherent mesoscale eddiesDiffusivity of coherent eddies matches the upper‐layer tracer diffusivity in quasigeostrophic simulationsIn 3D simulations, the coherent diffusivity is correlated with the tracer diffusivity at the e‐folding depth of energy‐containing eddies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to promote best practices regarding mathematics teaching and learning at the preschool level, national advisory panels and organizations have emphasized the importance of children's emergent counting and related competencies, such as the ability to verbally count, maintain one-to-one correspondence, count with cardinality, subitize, and count forward or backward from a given number. However, little research has investigated whether the kind of mathematical knowledge promoted by the various standards documents actually predict later mathematics achievement. The present study uses longitudinal data from a primarily low-income and minority sample of children to examine the extent to which preschool mathematical competencies, specifically basic and advanced counting, predict fifth grade mathematics achievement. Using regression analyses, we find early numeracy abilities to be the strongest predictors of later mathematics achievement, with advanced counting competencies more predictive than basic counting competencies. Our results highlight the significance of preschool mathematics knowledge for future academic achievement.

When interior mixing is weak, the ocean can support an interhemispheric overturning circulation on isopycnals that outcrop in both the Northern Hemisphere and a high-latitude southern circumpolar channel. This overturning cell participates in a salt-advection feedback that counteracts the precipitation-induced surface freshening of the northern high latitudes. The net result is an increase in the range of isopycnals shared between the two hemispheres, which strengthens the overturning circulation. However, if precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere sufficiently exceeds that in the Southern Hemisphere, the overturning cell collapses and is replaced by a cell circulating in the opposite direction, whose southern end point is equatorward of the channel. This reversed cell is shallower and weaker than its forward counterpart and is maintained diffusively. For a limited range of parameters, freshwater hysteresis occurs and multiple overturning regimes are found for the same forcing. These multiple regimes are, by definition, unstable with regard to finite-amplitude disturbances, since a sufficiently large perturbation can affect a transition from one regime to the other. Both overturning regimes show pronounced, nearly periodic thermohaline variability on multidecadal and multicentennial time scales. The multidecadal oscillation is expressed in the North Hemisphere gyre and driven by a surface thermohaline instability. The multicentennial oscillation has the character of an interhemispheric loop oscillation. These oscillations mediate transitions between overturning regimes by providing an internal source of finite-amplitude disturbances. As the diffusivity is reduced, the reverse cell becomes weaker and thus less stable to a given perturbation amplitude. This causes the width of the hysteresis to decrease with decreasing diffusivity.

Argumentation schema theory guided four experiments on the processing of plausible and implausible reasons and warrant statements testing the hypothesis that most reasons produce greater agreement with claims than when claims are presented without support. Another hypothesis was that leaving warrants unstated often produces greater agreement than when the warrant is made explicit. In Study 1, American participants were more likely to agree with claims after they read arguments than beforehand--even those with implausible reasons and warrants. In Study 2, American history and environmental science majors read brief arguments and agreed more with implausible arguments than claims alone. Study 3, with Chinese participants, replicated some but not all earlier results. In Study 4, with Chinese participants, blatantly false claims supported by bogus reasons yielded marginally greater agreement than unsupported claims. These findings suggest that many people have uncritical argumentation schemata with low support thresholds, making them vulnerable to weak and bogus arguments.

The adiabatic overturning circulation is the part of the meridional overturning circulation that persists in the limit of vanishing diffusivity. Two conditions are required for the existence of the adiabatic overturning circulation: a high-latitude zonally reentrant channel subject to surface westerlies and a set of outcropping isopycnals shared between the channel and the opposite hemisphere. This paper examines how different buoyancy forcing regimes, particularly freshwater flux, affect the surface buoyancy distribution and the strength of the adiabatic overturning circulation. Without freshwater forcing, salinity is uniform and buoyancy is determined by temperature only. In this case, the size of the shared isopycnal window is effectively fixed by the coupling between atmospheric and sea surface temperatures. With freshwater forcing (applied as a surface flux), the salinity, and thus the sea surface buoyancy and the size of the shared isopycnal window, is not specified by the atmospheric state alone. It is found that a salt-advection feedback leads to surface buoyancy distributions that increase the size of the isopycnal window and strengthen the adiabatic overturning circulation. The strength of the feedback is controlled by processes in high latitudes-the southern channel, where the surface salinity is determined by a balance between freshwater input from the atmosphere, salt input from upwelling deep water, and freshwater export by Ekman transport; and the Northern Hemisphere, where the overturning and wind-driven transport in the thermocline advect salty water from the subtropics, mitigating the freshening effect of the surface freshwater flux. The freshwater budget in the channel region provides an estimate of the size of the isopycnal window. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Simple Summary: This study examines patterns of injury and mortality in long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) at the Ubud Monkey Forest in Bali, Indonesia. This forest is situated in an urban landscape that is continuously developed and modified to suit the needs of international tourism. The macaques at the site face the typical challenges of living in social groups, and novel challenges of negotiating an urban environment. Forest management has actively committed to the physical and psychological health of the macaques for over 40 years. The addition of a veterinary clinic in the last decade addresses the needs of injured macaques, while inadvertently strengthening their One Health framework. In this collaborative work, we review patterns of injury and mortality among individuals brought to the clinic over a four-year span. Males and younger macaques were over-represented among injured individuals seen at the veterinary clinic. The most common natural causes of harm were from falls and macaque-inflicted wounds. The most common anthropogenic causes of harm were vehicular collisions, electrocutions, gunshots, and plastic pollution. These results are critical for effectively managing wildlife in urban areas across the globe. This study demonstrates the importance of local stakeholders' knowledge of their environment and effective programs to manage wildlife by synthesizing conventional conservation initiatives with cultural patterns, and religious and philosophical approaches. Wildlife that inhabit urban landscapes face the dual challenge of negotiating their positions in their group while navigating obstacles of anthropogenically modified landscapes. The dynamics of urban environments can result in novel injuries and mortalities for these animals. However, these negative impacts can be mitigated through planning, and onsite veterinary care like that provided by the Ubud Monkey Forest in Bali, Indonesia. We examined 275 recorded injuries and mortalities among six social groups of long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) brought to the veterinary clinic from 2015–2018. We fit the probabilities of injury vs. death among macaques brought to the clinic using a multilevel logistic regression model to infer the relationship between injury vs. death and associated demographic parameters. Males were more likely to sustain injuries and females were more likely to die. The frequency of injuries and mortalities changed over the four-year study period, which was reflected in our model. The odds of mortality were highest among young macaques and the odds of injury vs. mortality varied across the six social groups. We categorized injuries and mortalities as "natural" or "anthropogenic". Most injuries and mortalities were naturally occurring, but powerlines, motorized vehicles, and plastic present ongoing anthropogenic threats to macaque health. Most wounds and injuries were successfully treated, with healthy animals released back to their group. We suggest other sites with high levels of human–alloprimate interplays consider the Ubud Monkey Forest veterinary office as a model of care and potentially adopt their approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early educational intervention effects typically fade in the years following treatment, and few studies have investigated why achievement impacts diminish over time. The current study tested the effects of a preschool mathematics intervention on two aspects of children's mathematical development. We tested for separate effects of the intervention on "state" (occasion-specific) and "trait" (relatively stable) variability in mathematics achievement. Results indicated that, although the treatment had a large impact on state mathematics, the treatment had no effect on trait mathematics, or the aspect of mathematics achievement that influences stable individual differences in mathematics achievement over time. Results did suggest, however, that the intervention could affect the underlying processes in children's mathematical development by inducing more transfer of knowledge immediately following the intervention for students in the treated group.

This study reports on the development and field study of K-TEEM, a web-based assessment instrument designed to measure mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) at the early elementary level. The development process involved alignment with early elementary curriculum standards, expert review of items and scoring criteria, cognitive interviews with practicing teachers, a field test involving 405 practicing teachers, and data modeling using a Rasch model. Several examples of MKT at the early elementary level are provided, and some of the challenges and decisions made during the process of item and scale development are discussed. Rasch model results indicate good model fit and adequate reliability, and the model accounts for more than 75% of the variance in the data. The K-TEEM assessment instrument may fill an important gap in the set of tools available to researchers for program evaluation and empirical investigation of teacher knowledge. [For the full text grantee submission, see ED575171.]

BackgroundDespite steady gains in life expectancy, individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease still experience rapid pulmonary decline throughout their clinical course, which can ultimately end in respiratory failure. Point-of-care tools for accurate and timely information regarding the risk of rapid decline is essential for clinical decision support. ObjectiveThis study aims to translate a novel algorithm for earlier, more accurate prediction of rapid lung function decline in patients with CF into an interactive web-based application that can be integrated within electronic health record systems, via collaborative development with clinicians. MethodsLongitudinal clinical history, lung function measurements, and time-invariant characteristics were obtained for 30,879 patients with CF who were followed in the US Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (2003-2015). We iteratively developed the application using the R Shiny framework and by conducting a qualitative study with care provider focus groups (N=17). ResultsA clinical conceptual model and 4 themes were identified through coded feedback from application users: (1) ambiguity in rapid decline, (2) clinical utility, (3) clinical significance, and (4) specific suggested revisions. These themes were used to revise our application to the currently released version, available online for exploration. This study has advanced the application’s potential prognostic utility for monitoring individuals with CF lung disease. Further application development will incorporate additional clinical characteristics requested by the users and also a more modular layout that can be useful for care provider and family interactions. ConclusionsOur framework for creating an interactive and visual analytics platform enables generalized development of applications to synthesize, model, and translate electronic health data, thereby enhancing clinical decision support and improving care and health outcomes for chronic diseases and disorders. A prospective implementation study is necessary to evaluate this tool’s effectiveness regarding increased communication, enhanced shared decision-making, and improved clinical outcomes for patients with CF.