Search

Most previous studies that examine the controversies involved in transit subsidies concentrate on large metropolitan areas in the United States. The main contribution of this article to the extant literature is that it investigates bus ridership data in small- and medium-sized US cities, which has been primarily ignored in earlier literature. The article also analyzes data on bus commuters, subway commuters, and walkers to workplaces in the eight largest cities with extensive subway systems and 22 other large cities. The analysis employs the 2010 US Census (IPUMS data). Generally, the characteristics of subway commuters are quite different from those of bus commuters. The characteristics of walkers in all the US cities are very similar to those who commute by bus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity. Most studies use linear regression techniques to forecast changes in output or dichotomous choice models to forecast recessions. Others use time-varying parameter models, such as Markov-switching models and smooth transition models, to account for structural changes or other nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in advance, but several also find its usefulness varies across countries and over time. In particular, many studies find that the ability of the term spread to forecast output growth has diminished in recent years, although it remains a reliable predictor of recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent energy price increases have revitalized interest in energy's impact on state economies. Moreover, lackluster economic growth in most states prompted some to suspend gas tax collections to stimulate economic activity. Given such interest, surprisingly few studies have quantified the effect energy has on state economies. Two questions are thus addressed here: 1) what is the impact of higher energy prices on state employment, and 2) what is the impact of a gas tax suspension. We find that the impact of increased petroleum-based energy prices on employment growth is small, calling into question the efficacy of a gas tax suspension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents evidence on the strength of market fundamentals in explaining the stock price movements. Explanations on the rise of stock prices during the 1990s; Valuation of a stock price; Statistics on stock prices, price-earnings ratio and price-dividend ratio from 1881 to 1999.

An efficient and consistent logistics network, as well as a transparent facilitation mechanism of cross-border trade, are critical to the country's export competitiveness. The quality of logistics services has been identified as an important determinant of international trade. We use gravity models to assess the impact of the World Bank's Logistic Performance Index (LPI) on Pakistan's exports. The findings show that improving logistics is critical for increasing exports. Individual indicators such as reasonably priced shipments, the ability to track and trace shipments, and trade and logistical transit standards are instrumental in boosting export flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and dividends, implied by the present value model, to structurally identify a dynamic model that governs the behavior of stock prices. Use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology in previous short-run modeling of stock prices; Cointegration of stock price and dividends series as shown by Campbell and Shiller.

Evaluates the impact of monetised and non-monetised deficit on output and inflation in the United States using annual data for 1923-1982 period. Evidence on the effects of deficits and deficit monetisation; Inflation fuelled by monetised deficits during 1961-1982 period; Short-run impact of non-monetised deficits on inflation; Implications on the policy of the Federal Reserves regarding pressure to monetised future deficits.

The Korean total fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world. This study assesses a broad range of factors associated with delayed first marriages, an important determinant of low fertility, using the Korean Population Census 2 per cent sample from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and other data sources. Using a multivariate logistic regression, we examine the probability of ever being married for men and women aged 30–34 and 35–39 for different years. We find that women with higher education delay marriage compared to those with a high school degree. Highly educated men marry earlier than men with high school or less education, particularly those aged 35–39. The strongest gender effect occurs among those working in agriculture, a declining industry in Korea. Men working in agriculture are much less likely to marry by age 40, but women marry earlier. In 2005 and 2010, men working in stable, high-paying industries marry earlier, with similar effects for women aged 30–34. Finally, several regional characteristics are associated with delayed marriage including higher housing prices, higher income for women, lower unemployment rate for young women, and higher income inequality, lower income, and higher unemployment rate for men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the spillovers of uncertainty from the United States (US) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a large panel of 50 advanced and emerging economies. We allow the response of GDP in each country to vary according to its exchange rate regime, trade openness, and a vulnerability index (based on current account, foreign reserves, inflation, and external debt). We observe large heterogeneity in the response of advanced and emerging economies to uncertainty surprises of the US. In response to an increase in US uncertainty, GDP in foreign economies drops slightly more, as it does in the US. In addition we find that, for advanced economies the exchange rate regime and financial vulnerability account for a large portion of the contraction in activity. In emerging economies, however, the responses do not depend on the exchange rate regime, but are larger when trade openness is high and weakness in the financial system is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Breaking ground from all previous studies, we estimate a time-varying Vector Autoregression model that examines the time-period 1270–2016 — the entire economic history of the U.K. Focusing on permanent and transitory shocks in the economy, we study the fluctuation in conditional volatilities and time-varying long-run responses of output growth and inflation. Unlike all previous studies that use time invariant linear models, our approach reveals that the pre 1600 period is a turbulent economic period of high volatility that is only repeated in the 20th century. The repeating patterns in the conditional volatilities follow from aggregate supply shocks, while most of the inflation responses follow from aggregate demand shocks. Thus, we uncover that despite the technological growth and the various changes in the structure of the U.K. economy in the last century, the recurring patterns call for an examination of the true impact of the various policies on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the U. S. dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data from the late 1800s or early 1900s for six countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between the exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional exchange rate theories. Employing a multivariate regime-switching framework, we find that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long-run equilibrium implied by the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the exchange rate regime in operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examines fundamental linkages between stock markets and safe haven assets. • We develop a two-factor, regime-based volatility spillover model • The risk exposures of safe havens with respect to global and regional stock market shocks display significant time variation • Precious metals exhibit positive risk exposures regional and global stock market shocks during high volatility periods This paper examines the fundamental linkages between stock markets and safe haven assets by developing a two-factor, regime-based volatility spillover model with global and regional stock market shocks as risk factors. The risk exposures of safe havens with respect to global and regional stock market shocks are found to display significant time variation and regime-specific features, with the exception of VIX for which consistent negative risk exposures are observed with respect to both global and regional stock market shocks. While traditional safe havens like precious metals exhibit positive risk exposures to both regional and global stock market shocks during high volatility periods, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and U.S. Treasuries are found to display either insignificant or negative risk exposures during market stress periods to equity market shocks, implying these assets would serve as more effective hedges (or safe havens) for equity investors. Our findings highlight the importance of dynamic models in assessing the linkages between safe haven assets and stock returns as static models would introduce large biases in diversification measures and optimal hedge ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study applies wavelet coherency analysis to explore the relationship between the U.S. economic growth volatility, and income and wealth inequality measures over the period 1917 to 2015 and 1962 to 2014. We consider the relationship between output volatility during positive and negative growth scenarios. Wavelet analysis simultaneously examines the correlation and causality between two series in both the time and frequency domains. Our findings provide evidence of positive correlation between the volatility and inequality across high (short-run)- and low-frequencies (long-run). The direction of causality varies across frequencies and time. Strong evidence exists that volatilities lead inequality at low-frequencies across income inequality measures from 1917 to 1997. After 1997, however, the direction of causality changes. In the time-domain, the time-varying nature of long-run causalities implies structural changes in the two series. These findings provide a more thorough picture of the relationship between the U.S. growth volatility and inequality measures over time and frequency domains, suggesting important implications for policy makers. Highlights • Explores relationship between US growth volatility, and income/wealth inequality. • Considers relationship between output volatility during positive/ negative growth. • Examines the correlation/causality between two series in time/frequency domains. • Direction of causality varies across frequencies and time. • Positive correlation between volatility/inequality across high/low-frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The impact of oil price uncertainty on economic growth in OECD countries is studied. • Taking a historic perspective, the sample covers a 144-year period starting in 1870. • The negative impact of uncertainty is more severe for oil producing countries. • A smaller impact is recorded in the post-World War II subsample period. • Reasons for declining impact of oil price uncertainty are proposed. Abstract This paper uses a number of different panel data estimators, including fixed effects, bias-corrected least squares dummy variables (LSDVC), generalised methods of moments (GMM), feasible generalised least squares (FGLS), and random coefficients (RC) to analyse the impact of real oil price volatility on the growth in real GDP for 17 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), over a 144-year time period from 1870 to 2013. The main finding of the study is that oil price volatility has a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth of the OECD countries in the sample. In addition, when allowing for slope heterogeneity, oil-producing countries are significantly negatively impacted by oil price uncertainty, most notably Norway and Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary A significant proportion of the trade basket of many developing countries is comprised of primary commodities. This implies relative price movements in commodities may have important consequences for economic growth and poverty reduction. Taking a long-run perspective, we examine the historical relation between a new aggregate index of commodity prices, economic activity, and interest rates. Initial empirical tests show that commodity prices present a downward trend with breaks over the entire industrial age, providing clear support for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. It would also appear that this trend has declined at a faster rate since the 1870s. Conversely, several GDP series such as World, Chile, China, UK, and US, trend upward with breaks. Such trending behavior in both commodity prices and economic activity suggests a latent common factor like technological innovation. To assess the relationships between economic series, we apply a stationary VAR (Vector Autoregression) to model movements around trends. Strikingly, there is evidence that commodity prices Granger cause income and interest rates, while interest rates Granger cause commodity prices. From these results and the related impulse response function analysis, the historical perspective provides some useful information for contemporary policy makers. For example, loose monetary policy has tended to support higher commodity prices. Moreover, commodity price movements have an asymmetric country effect on economic activity; periods of falling commodity prices will support GDP growth for commodity importers like the US but depress growth for commodity exporters such as Chile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employs wavelet coherency, phase differences and spillover analysis to examine the dynamic connectedness between oil prices and stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. Multivariate Generalised Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models are used to examine the conditional correlations, hedging performance, and to make a portfolio strategy. The wavelet coherency analysis shows a weak degree of association between oil prices and clean energy stock returns and between oil prices and technology companies' stock returns in time and frequency scales. The phase differences study shows that all series move cyclically, with technology stock returns leading oil prices and stock returns of clean energy companies. Furthermore, the volatility spillovers findings reveal that the overall connectedness of the system is 0.43%, while the degree of connectedness is greater at lower frequencies (1–4 days) than at higher frequencies (more than 4 days). The results also suggest that the volatility is transmitted from technology companies to oil and clean energy markets at all frequencies and over the whole period. Policy implications and hedging and portfolio options are discussed. • Dynamic linkages and Spillovers between oil and stock returns of clean energy firms are examined. • Wavelet coherency and phase differences, and spillover indices are employed. • Find Optimal portfolios between oil prices and clean energy stocks are heavily weighted towards oil. • Find: Clean energy companies' stock returns are most affected by oil market shocks. • Find: Returns of technology stocks appear to be the main source of volatility transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]