Search

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

Mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary coincides with the Chicxulub bolide impact and also falls within the broader time frame of Deccan trap emplacement. Critically, though, empirical evidence as to how either of these factors could have driven observed extinction patterns and carbon cycle perturbations is still lacking. Here, using boron isotopes in foraminifera, we document a geologically rapid surface-ocean pH drop following the Chicxulub impact, supporting impact-induced ocean acidification as a mechanism for ecological collapse in the marine realm. Subsequently, surface water pH rebounded sharply with the extinction of marine calcifiers and the associated imbalance in the global carbon cycle. Our reconstructed water-column pH gradients, combined with Earth system modeling, indicate that a partial ∼50% reduction in global marine primary productivity is sufficient to explain observed marine carbon isotope patterns at the K-Pg, due to the underlying action of the solubility pump. While primary productivity recovered within a few tens of thousands of years, inefficiency in carbon export to the deep sea lasted much longer. This phased recovery scenario reconciles competing hypotheses previously put forward to explain the K-Pg carbon isotope records, and explains both spatially variable patterns of change in marine productivity across the event and a lack of extinction at the deep sea floor. In sum, we provide insights into the drivers of the last mass extinction, the recovery of marine carbon cycling in a postextinction world, and the way in which marine life imprints its isotopic signal onto the geological record.

Background: Previous studies have suggested differences in multiple sclerosis (MS) severity according to ethnicity. Methods: Data were obtained from the UK MS Register, a prospective longitudinal cohort study of persons with MS. We examined the association between self-reported ethnic background and age at onset, symptom of onset and a variety of participant-reported severity measures. We used adjusted multivariable linear regression models to explore the association between ethnicity and impact of MS, and Cox proportional hazards models to assess disability progression. Results: We analysed data from 17,314 people with MS, including participants from self-reported Black (n = 157) or South Asian (n = 230) ethnic backgrounds. Age at MS onset and diagnosis was lower in those of South Asian (median 30.0) and Black (median 33.0) ethnicity compared with White ethnicity (median 35.0). In participants with online MS severity measures available, we found no statistically significant evidence for an association between ethnic background and physical disability in MS in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Conclusion: We found no association between ethnic background and MS severity in a large, diverse UK cohort. These findings suggest that other factors, such as socioeconomic status and structural inequalities, may explain previous findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change on marine organisms have been increasingly documented in laboratory and experimental studies. However, the use of different taxonomic groupings and the assessment of a range of processes make identifying overall trends challenging. Meta-analysis has been used to determine general trends, but coarse taxonomic granularity may mask phylogenetically specific responses. Bivalve molluscs are a data-rich clade of ecologically and economically important calcifying marine taxa that allow for the assessment of species-specific vulnerability across developmental stages. Drawing on the large body of available literature, we conduct a meta-analysis of 203 unique experimental set-ups in order to examine how bivalve growth responds to increased water temperature, acidity, deoxygenation, and changes in salinity in 10 climate change stressor combinations. This is the most complete examination of bivalve responses to date and shows that anthropogenic climate change will disproportionally affect particular families, suggesting taxonomic differentiation in climate change response. Specifically, Mytilidae, Ostreidae, and Pectinidae (67 % of experiments) respond with negative effect sizes for all individual stressors, whereas responses in Pinnidae, Tellinidae, and Veneridae are more complex. Our analysis shows that earlier studies reporting negative impacts on bivalves are driven by only three or four well-studied, commercially important families. Despite the taxonomic differentiation, almost all drivers and their combinations have significant negative effects on growth. The synergistic impacts of deoxygenation, acidification, and temperature result in the largest negative effect size. Infaunal taxa, including Tellinidae and Veneridae, appear more resistant to warming and oxygen reduction than epifaunal or motile taxa, but this difference between the two taxa is also based on a small number of data points. The current focus of experimental set-ups on commercially important taxa and families within a small geographic range creates gaps in the understanding of global impacts on these economically important foundation organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Prescribing guidance for disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is centred on a clinical diagnosis of relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS). DMT prescription guidelines and monitoring vary across countries. Standardising the approach to diagnosis of disease course, for example, assigning RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS) diagnoses, allows examination of the impact of health system characteristics on the stated clinical diagnosis and treatment access. Methods: We analysed registry data from six cohorts in five countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and United Kingdom) on patients with an initial diagnosis of RRMS. We standardised our approach utilising a pre-existing algorithm (DecisionTree, DT) to determine patient diagnoses of RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We identified five global drivers of DMT prescribing: Provision, Availability, Funding, Monitoring and Audit, data were analysed against these concepts using meta-analysis and univariate meta-regression. Results: In 64,235 patients, we found variations in DMT use between countries, with higher usage in RRMS and lower usage in SPMS, with correspondingly lower usage in the UK compared to other registers. Factors such as female gender (p = 0.041), increasing disability via Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (p = 0.004), and the presence of monitoring (p = 0.029) in SPMS influenced the likelihood of receiving DMTs. Standardising the diagnosis revealed differences in reclassification rates from clinical RRMS to DT-SPMS, with Sweden having the lowest rate Sweden (Sweden 0.009, range: Denmark 0.103 – UK portal 0.311). Those with higher EDSS at index (p < 0.03) and female gender (p < 0.049) were more likely to be reclassified from RRMS to DT-SPMS. The study also explored the impact of diagnosis on DMT usage in clinical SPMS, finding that the prescribing environment and auditing practices affected access to treatment. Discussion: This highlights the importance of a healthcare system's approach to verifying the clinical label of MS course in facilitating appropriate prescribing, with some flexibility allowed in uncertain cases to ensure continued access to treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]