Search

Existing research generally confirms a countercyclical education enrollment, whereby youths seek shelter in the educational system to avoid hardships in the labor market: the "discouraged worker" thesis. Alternatively, the "encouraged worker" thesis predicts that economic downturns steer individuals away from education because of higher opportunity costs. This study provides a formal test of these opposing theories using data from the United States compared with similar sources from the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden. I investigate whether macroeconomic stimuli--including recessions and youth unemployment fluctuations--matter for enrollment decisions. Analyses rely on 10 years of detailed individual-level panel data, consisting of birth cohorts across several decades. Across data sources, results show enrollment persistence in secondary education is stronger in response to economic downturns. These patterns differ sharply for tertiary-enrolled students and those who recently left higher education. Surprisingly, U.S. youths display an increased hazard of school leaving and a decreased hazard of educational reenrollment in response to adverse conditions. In contrast, European youths tend to make enrollment decisions supportive of discouraged-worker mechanisms or insensitivity to adverse conditions. The U.S.-specific encouraged-worker mechanism might be explained by the relative importance of market forces in one's early career and the high costs of university attendance, which induces risk aversion with regard to educational investment. The discussion addresses the consequences for educational inequality.

Increasingly, undergraduates take more than 4 years to complete a baccalaureate, a situation widely perceived as a waste of time and money, for students, their families, and taxpayers. We first identify several phenomena that result in a longer time to degree and document the frequency of such delays. Then, using nationally representative data from the Baccalaureate & Beyond 1993-2003 surveys, we estimate the relationship between delayed time-to-degree and later employment and postcollege earnings, using negative binomial hurdle models. We find that delayed time-to-degree is not related to employment chances but is associated with lower post-college earnings: averaging 8-15%, depending on the length of delay. This average disadvantage is in line with signaling theory. The unique contribution of this study is its thorough analysis of different types of delay, as caused by stopping out and employment. Contrary to the popular assumption that delay is a waste of college resources or a student's time, we find that delayed graduation in combination with working full-time during college has no negative relationship to post-college earnings. We discuss the time-investment trade-offs and the implications for the applicability of human capital theory to college graduation delays.

The low number of baccalaureates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is often viewed as problematic for the US's economic competitiveness, leading scholars to search for explanations for STEM retention. Our analyses of the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study indicate that the notion of a so-called "leaky STEM pipeline" out of STEM majors overstates the problem because it neglects the substantial influx into STEM from other majors throughout college. Researchers concerned with STEM retention should focus on a broader defined group of "STEM-actives": A combination of freshman students who declared a STEM major or who take a considerable number of STEM credits. Among these students (N = 3,020) we examine the variation in the relatively lower grades that many individuals earn in STEM courses compared to their non-STEM courses. The size of an undergraduate's "STEM-grading penalty"--an individual grading disparity--in the first couple of college semesters is significantly associated with the probability of leaving STEM. The influence of this STEM-penalty on STEM graduation chances is robust to college students' variation in both general academic achievement and STEM-specific preparation, thereby eliminating a large portion of the effect due to skills, performance, and selection. Our analyses expands on previous research regarding relative grading conducted "within" STEM-fields.

Numerous studies have investigated the consequences of vertical transfer on students' higher education outcomes in comparison to "native 4-year students"--those who went straight from high school into a bachelor's program. However, the long-term labor market outcomes for vertical transfer students are understudied. Using nationally-representative data from the National Survey of College Graduates 2015, we estimate the relationship between starting in a community college (vs. at a 4-year college) and postcollege earnings and employment, in ways that correct for selection bias and overdispersion. We estimate a roughly 14% earnings disadvantage for baccalaureates who started at a 2-year rather than 4-year institution, regardless of college major. No effect was found on graduates' employment chances.

There is a conception that contemporary work lives become ever more complex. Pioneering research has indicated that work lives have indeed become more complex, yet at a modestly increasing pace. This paper uses Swedish registry data across an exceptionally long time period, including cohorts born from 1931 to 1983. The following conclusions are drawn using state-of-the-art methods of measuring sequence complexity. For early-careers, an increasing complexity trend is evident between the 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts, yet complexity fluctuates around a stable trend for the 1970s birth cohorts and onward. For mid-careers, which are considerably more stable on average, complexity has decreased among women born between the 1930s and the early-1950s. However, the opposite trend holds true for men, resulting in a gender convergence in work complexity. We observe a subsequent standstill of the mid-career complexity trend across both genders, followed by a modest decline for the last observed cohorts. Analyses point to educational expansion as an important driver of the initial increase of early-career complexity. Taken together, this study affirms an initial shift to more work life complexity in the twentieth century, yet we find no unidirectional trend toward more complexity over the last decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the undergraduate major as a closure mechanism in occupations among college graduates, using the American Community Surveys. We measure the college major density of occupations, termed "major specialization", finding that greater major specialization of an occupation is associated with higher earnings, over and above previously identified closure devices (licensure, unionization, and vertical educational credentialing), and college selectivity. We conclude that major specialization operates as a powerful earnings-boosting closure device within higher-educated labor markets. Additional analyses regarding premiums from individuals matching their own college major with their occupation's typical major indicate comparatively small earnings payoffs. Hence, deviating from one's occupation's usual credential does not generate a substantial earnings penalty. Furthermore, payoffs from major-occupation matching have a ceiling: there is no further payoff above the average match level. These findings demonstrate how occupational closure theory helps explain the substantial earnings advantages of certain college majors in the labor force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education in America is characterized by widespread access to college but low rates of completion, especially among undergraduates at less selective institutions. We analyze longitudinal transcript data to examine processes leading to graduation, using Hidden Markov modeling. We identify several latent states that are associated with patterns of course taking, and show that a trained Hidden Markov model can predict graduation or nongraduation based on only a few semesters of transcript data. We compare this approach to more conventional methods and conclude that certain college-specific processes, associated with graduation, should be analyzed in addition to socio-economic factors. The results from the Hidden Markov trajectories indicate that both graduating and nongraduating students take the more difficult mathematical and technical courses at an equal rate. However, undergraduates who complete their bachelor's degree within 6 years are more likely to alternate between these semesters with a heavy course load and the less course-intense semesters. The course-taking patterns found among college students also indicate that nongraduates withdraw more often from coursework than average, yet when graduates withdraw, they tend do so in exactly those semesters of the college career in which more difficult courses are taken. These findings, as well as the sequence methodology itself, emphasize the importance of careful course selection and counseling early on in student's college career.

Research suggests that structural change drives occupational mobility in high-income countries over time, but two partially competing theories explain how such change occurs. One suggests that younger cohorts replace older ones through higher education, and the second suggests that individuals adapt to structural change by switching from declining to new or growing occupations during their careers. A proposed occupational scheme aligns with the two dimensions of structural change – skill upgrading on the vertical axis of occupational differentiation, increasing demand for data comprehension (i.e. high skill) and primary tasks concerning either people or things on the horizontal axis. Applied to career trajectories in the Swedish labour market, sequence analyses of the scheme suggest stability in attainment of career mobility types over time between consecutive birth cohorts, and considerable evidence for within-career manoeuvring. Analyses address heterogeneity along parental class and gender. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data, a comprehensive treatment model indicates a strong positive influence of incarceration on premature death risk. Models adjust for numerous covariates of mortality, including demographics, family background, and a range of health and behavioral indicators measured during childhood, as well as selection into incarceration ("treatment"). This study expands extant research by observing much longer panel data, closer to the mortality curve. The main treatment effect reveals risk of premature death by one's mid-fifties being increased by 13.9 percentage-points. Results also indicate that young adulthood incarceration shortens lives equally for Blacks and non-Blacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have investigated the consequences of vertical transfer on students' higher education outcomes in comparison to "native 4-year students"—those who went straight from high school into a bachelor's program. However, the long-term labor market outcomes for vertical transfer students are understudied. Using nationally-representative data from the National Survey of College Graduates 2015, we estimate the relationship between starting in a community college (vs. at a 4-year college) and postcollege earnings and employment, in ways that correct for selection bias and overdispersion. We estimate a roughly 14% earnings disadvantage for baccalaureates who started at a 2-year rather than 4-year institution, regardless of college major. No effect was found on graduates' employment chances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study uses two waves of panel data to examine the labour market integration of children of Moroccan and Turkish immigrants in the Netherlands. The data show a persisting educational attainment gap in terms of high school completion and post‐secondary attendance. The analyses of prime working‐age respondents indicate substantial ethnic penalties that accrue from the hiring process: controlling for educational background and demographics, the youngest cohort of the second generation is less likely to have employment than the native Dutch. We improve on earlier research on ethnic penalties in the Dutch labour market by including measures of precarious work – the chance of avoiding of non‐contracted work – and by comparing minorities’ standing in a pre‐recession (2009) and a peak‐recession (2013) labour market. The results indicate increasing employment disadvantages for both second‐generation groups at a time of labour surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]