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Recent advances in AI-generated steganography highlight its potential for safeguarding the privacy of vulnerable democratic actors, including aid workers, journalists, and whistleblowers operating in oppressive regimes. In this work, we address current limitations and establish the foundations for large-throughput generative steganography. We introduce a novel approach that enables secure and efficient steganography within latent diffusion models. We show empirically that our methods perform well across a variety of open-source latent diffusion models, particularly in generative image and video tasks.

Benchmarks are important tools for tracking the rapid advancements in large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, benchmarks are not keeping pace in difficulty: LLMs now achieve over 90\% accuracy on popular benchmarks like MMLU, limiting informed measurement of state-of-the-art LLM capabilities. In response, we introduce Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), a multi-modal benchmark at the frontier of human knowledge, designed to be the final closed-ended academic benchmark of its kind with broad subject coverage. HLE consists of 3,000 questions across dozens of subjects, including mathematics, humanities, and the natural sciences. HLE is developed globally by subject-matter experts and consists of multiple-choice and short-answer questions suitable for automated grading. Each question has a known solution that is unambiguous and easily verifiable, but cannot be quickly answered via internet retrieval. State-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate low accuracy and calibration on HLE, highlighting a significant gap between current LLM capabilities and the expert human frontier on closed-ended academic questions. To inform research and policymaking upon a clear understanding of model capabilities, we publicly release HLE at https://lastexam.ai., Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures

Enabling effective collaboration among LLMs is a crucial step toward developing autonomous systems capable of solving complex problems. While LLMs are typically used as single-model generators, where humans critique and refine their outputs, the potential for jointly-trained collaborative models remains largely unexplored. Despite promising results in multi-agent communication and debate settings, little progress has been made in training models to work together on tasks. In this paper, we present a first step toward "Multi-agent LLM training" (MALT) on reasoning problems. Our approach employs a sequential multi-agent setup with heterogeneous LLMs assigned specialized roles: a generator, verifier, and refinement model iteratively solving problems. We propose a trajectory-expansion-based synthetic data generation process and a credit assignment strategy driven by joint outcome based rewards. This enables our post-training setup to utilize both positive and negative trajectories to autonomously improve each model's specialized capabilities as part of a joint sequential system. We evaluate our approach across MATH, GSM8k, and CQA, where MALT on Llama 3.1 8B models achieves relative improvements of 14.14%, 7.12%, and 9.40% respectively over the same baseline model. This demonstrates an early advance in multi-agent cooperative capabilities for performance on mathematical and common sense reasoning questions. More generally, our work provides a concrete direction for research around multi-agent LLM training approaches., Comment: Preliminary work

Addressing data integrity challenges, such as unlearning the effects of data poisoning after model training, is necessary for the reliable deployment of machine learning models. State-of-the-art influence functions, such as EK-FAC, often fail to accurately attribute abnormal model behavior to the specific poisoned training data responsible for the data poisoning attack. In addition, traditional unlearning algorithms often struggle to effectively remove the influence of poisoned samples, particularly when only a few affected examples can be identified. To address these challenge, we introduce $\Delta$-Influence, a novel approach that leverages influence functions to trace abnormal model behavior back to the responsible poisoned training data using as little as just one poisoned test example. $\Delta$-Influence applies data transformations that sever the link between poisoned training data and compromised test points without significantly affecting clean data. This allows $\Delta$-Influence to detect large negative shifts in influence scores following data transformations, a phenomenon we term as influence collapse, thereby accurately identifying poisoned training data. Unlearning this subset, e.g. through retraining, effectively eliminates the data poisoning. We validate our method across three vision-based poisoning attacks and three datasets, benchmarking against four detection algorithms and five unlearning strategies. We show that $\Delta$-Influence consistently achieves the best unlearning across all settings, showing the promise of influence functions for corrective unlearning. Our code is publicly available at: \url{https://github.com/andyisokay/delta-influence}, Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS Workshop on Attributing Model Behavior at Scale (ATTRIB @ NeurIPS 2024)

One of the most challenging forms of misinformation involves the out-of-context (OOC) use of images paired with misleading text, creating false narratives. Existing AI-driven detection systems lack explainability and require expensive fine-tuning. We address these issues with MAD-Sherlock: a Multi-Agent Debate system for OOC Misinformation Detection. MAD-Sherlock introduces a novel multi-agent debate framework where multimodal agents collaborate to assess contextual consistency and request external information to enhance cross-context reasoning and decision-making. Our framework enables explainable detection with state-of-the-art accuracy even without domain-specific fine-tuning. Extensive ablation studies confirm that external retrieval significantly improves detection accuracy, and user studies demonstrate that MAD-Sherlock boosts performance for both experts and non-experts. These results position MAD-Sherlock as a powerful tool for autonomous and citizen intelligence applications.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a recent technique for decomposing neural network activations into human-interpretable features. However, in order for SAEs to identify all features represented in frontier models, it will be necessary to scale them up to very high width, posing a computational challenge. In this work, we introduce Switch Sparse Autoencoders, a novel SAE architecture aimed at reducing the compute cost of training SAEs. Inspired by sparse mixture of experts models, Switch SAEs route activation vectors between smaller "expert" SAEs, enabling SAEs to efficiently scale to many more features. We present experiments comparing Switch SAEs with other SAE architectures, and find that Switch SAEs deliver a substantial Pareto improvement in the reconstruction vs. sparsity frontier for a given fixed training compute budget. We also study the geometry of features across experts, analyze features duplicated across experts, and verify that Switch SAE features are as interpretable as features found by other SAE architectures., Comment: Code available at https://github.com/amudide/switch_sae

A key challenge in interpretability is to decompose model activations into meaningful features. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a promising tool for this task. However, a central problem in evaluating the quality of SAEs is the absence of ground truth features to serve as an evaluation gold standard. Current evaluation methods for SAEs are therefore confronted with a significant trade-off: SAEs can either leverage toy models or other proxies with predefined ground truth features; or they use extensive prior knowledge of realistic task circuits. The former limits the generalizability of the evaluation results, while the latter limits the range of models and tasks that can be used for evaluations. We introduce SAGE: Scalable Autoencoder Ground-truth Evaluation, a ground truth evaluation framework for SAEs that scales to large state-of-the-art SAEs and models. We demonstrate that our method can automatically identify task-specific activations and compute ground truth features at these points. Compared to previous methods we reduce the training overhead by introducing a novel reconstruction method that allows to apply residual stream SAEs to sublayer activations. This eliminates the need for SAEs trained on every task-specific activation location. Then we validate the scalability of our framework, by evaluating SAEs on novel tasks on Pythia70M, GPT-2 Small, and Gemma-2-2. Our framework therefore paves the way for generalizable, large-scale evaluations of SAEs in interpretability research.

The rapid proliferation of AI-manipulated or generated audio deepfakes poses serious challenges to media integrity and election security. Current AI-driven detection solutions lack explainability and underperform in real-world settings. In this paper, we introduce novel explainability methods for state-of-the-art transformer-based audio deepfake detectors and open-source a novel benchmark for real-world generalizability. By narrowing the explainability gap between transformer-based audio deepfake detectors and traditional methods, our results not only build trust with human experts, but also pave the way for unlocking the potential of citizen intelligence to overcome the scalability issue in audio deepfake detection.

As a powerful and rapidly advancing dual-use technology, AI offers both immense benefits and worrisome risks. In response, governing bodies around the world are developing a range of regulatory AI laws and policies. This paper compares three distinct approaches taken by the EU, China and the US. Within the US, we explore AI regulation at both the federal and state level, with a focus on California's pending Senate Bill 1047. Each regulatory system reflects distinct cultural, political and economic perspectives. Each also highlights differing regional perspectives on regulatory risk-benefit tradeoffs, with divergent judgments on the balance between safety versus innovation and cooperation versus competition. Finally, differences between regulatory frameworks reflect contrastive stances in regards to trust in centralized authority versus trust in a more decentralized free market of self-interested stakeholders. Taken together, these varied approaches to AI innovation and regulation influence each other, the broader international community, and the future of AI regulation., Comment: 36 pages, 11 figures and tables

The rapid proliferation of frontier model agents promises significant societal advances but also raises concerns about systemic risks arising from unsafe interactions. Collusion to the disadvantage of others has been identified as a central form of undesirable agent cooperation. The use of information hiding (steganography) in agent communications could render collusion practically undetectable. This underscores the need for evaluation frameworks to monitor and mitigate steganographic collusion capabilities. We address a crucial gap in the literature by demonstrating, for the first time, that robust steganographic collusion in LLMs can arise indirectly from optimization pressure. To investigate this problem we design two approaches -- a gradient-based reinforcement learning (GBRL) method and an in-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) method -- for reliably eliciting sophisticated LLM-generated linguistic text steganography. Importantly, we find that emergent steganographic collusion can be robust to both passive steganalytic oversight of model outputs and active mitigation through communication paraphrasing. We contribute a novel model evaluation framework and discuss limitations and future work. Our findings imply that effective risk mitigation from steganographic collusion post-deployment requires innovation in passive and active oversight techniques.

AI systems are increasingly pervasive, yet information needed to decide whether and how to engage with them may not exist or be accessible. A user may not be able to verify whether a system has certain safety certifications. An investigator may not know whom to investigate when a system causes an incident. It may not be clear whom to contact to shut down a malfunctioning system. Across a number of domains, IDs address analogous problems by identifying particular entities (e.g., a particular Boeing 747) and providing information about other entities of the same class (e.g., some or all Boeing 747s). We propose a framework in which IDs are ascribed to instances of AI systems (e.g., a particular chat session with Claude 3), and associated information is accessible to parties seeking to interact with that system. We characterize IDs for AI systems, provide concrete examples where IDs could be useful, argue that there could be significant demand for IDs from key actors, analyze how those actors could incentivize ID adoption, explore a potential implementation of our framework for deployers of AI systems, and highlight limitations and risks. IDs seem most warranted in settings where AI systems could have a large impact upon the world, such as in making financial transactions or contacting real humans. With further study, IDs could help to manage a world where AI systems pervade society., Comment: Under review; accepted to RegML workshop at NeurIPS 2024

The rapid proliferation of open-source language models significantly increases the risks of downstream backdoor attacks. These backdoors can introduce dangerous behaviours during model deployment and can evade detection by conventional cybersecurity monitoring systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel class of backdoors in autoregressive transformer models, that, in contrast to prior art, are unelicitable in nature. Unelicitability prevents the defender from triggering the backdoor, making it impossible to evaluate or detect ahead of deployment even if given full white-box access and using automated techniques, such as red-teaming or certain formal verification methods. We show that our novel construction is not only unelicitable thanks to using cryptographic techniques, but also has favourable robustness properties. We confirm these properties in empirical investigations, and provide evidence that our backdoors can withstand state-of-the-art mitigation strategies. Additionally, we expand on previous work by showing that our universal backdoors, while not completely undetectable in white-box settings, can be harder to detect than some existing designs. By demonstrating the feasibility of seamlessly integrating backdoors into transformer models, this paper fundamentally questions the efficacy of pre-deployment detection strategies. This offers new insights into the offence-defence balance in AI safety and security., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

Minimum-entropy coupling (MEC) -- the process of finding a joint distribution with minimum entropy for given marginals -- has applications in areas such as causality and steganography. However, existing algorithms are either computationally intractable for large-support distributions or limited to specific distribution types and sensitive to hyperparameter choices. This work addresses these limitations by unifying a prior family of iterative MEC (IMEC) approaches into a generalized partition-based formalism. From this framework, we derive a novel IMEC algorithm called ARIMEC, capable of handling arbitrary discrete distributions, and introduce a method to make IMEC robust to suboptimal hyperparameter settings. These innovations facilitate the application of IMEC to high-throughput steganography with language models, among other settings. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/ssokota/mec .

In the next few years, applications of Generative AI are expected to revolutionize a number of different areas, ranging from science & medicine to education. The potential for these seismic changes has triggered a lively debate about potential risks and resulted in calls for tighter regulation, in particular from some of the major tech companies who are leading in AI development. This regulation is likely to put at risk the budding field of open-source Generative AI. We argue for the responsible open sourcing of generative AI models in the near and medium term. To set the stage, we first introduce an AI openness taxonomy system and apply it to 40 current large language models. We then outline differential benefits and risks of open versus closed source AI and present potential risk mitigation, ranging from best practices to calls for technical and scientific contributions. We hope that this report will add a much needed missing voice to the current public discourse on near to mid-term AI safety and other societal impact., Comment: Accepted to ICML'24 as a position paper

This work identifies 18 foundational challenges in assuring the alignment and safety of large language models (LLMs). These challenges are organized into three different categories: scientific understanding of LLMs, development and deployment methods, and sociotechnical challenges. Based on the identified challenges, we pose $200+$ concrete research questions.

While reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied across numerous sequential decision-making problems, their generalization to unforeseen testing environments remains a significant concern. In this paper, we study the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in RL, which focuses on identifying situations at test time that RL agents have not encountered in their training environments. We first propose a clarification of terminology for OOD detection in RL, which aligns it with the literature from other machine learning domains. We then present new benchmark scenarios for OOD detection, which introduce anomalies with temporal autocorrelation into different components of the agent-environment loop. We argue that such scenarios have been understudied in the current literature, despite their relevance to real-world situations. Confirming our theoretical predictions, our experimental results suggest that state-of-the-art OOD detectors are not able to identify such anomalies. To address this problem, we propose a novel method for OOD detection, which we call DEXTER (Detection via Extraction of Time Series Representations). By treating environment observations as time series data, DEXTER extracts salient time series features, and then leverages an ensemble of isolation forest algorithms to detect anomalies. We find that DEXTER can reliably identify anomalies across benchmark scenarios, exhibiting superior performance compared to both state-of-the-art OOD detectors and high-dimensional changepoint detectors adopted from statistics., Comment: Accepted as a full paper to the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2024)

Recent capability increases in large language models (LLMs) open up applications in which groups of communicating generative AI agents solve joint tasks. This poses privacy and security challenges concerning the unauthorised sharing of information, or other unwanted forms of agent coordination. Modern steganographic techniques could render such dynamics hard to detect. In this paper, we comprehensively formalise the problem of secret collusion in systems of generative AI agents by drawing on relevant concepts from both AI and security literature. We study incentives for the use of steganography, and propose a variety of mitigation measures. Our investigations result in a model evaluation framework that systematically tests capabilities required for various forms of secret collusion. We provide extensive empirical results across a range of contemporary LLMs. While the steganographic capabilities of current models remain limited, GPT-4 displays a capability jump suggesting the need for continuous monitoring of steganographic frontier model capabilities. We conclude by laying out a comprehensive research program to mitigate future risks of collusion between generative AI models.

The increasing prevalence of multi-agent learning systems in society necessitates understanding how to learn effective and safe policies in general-sum multi-agent environments against a variety of opponents, including self-play. General-sum learning is difficult because of non-stationary opponents and misaligned incentives. Our first main contribution is to show that many recent approaches to general-sum learning can be derived as approximations to Stackelberg strategies, which suggests a framework for developing new multi-agent learning algorithms. We then define non-coincidental games as games in which the Stackelberg strategy profile is not a Nash Equilibrium. This notably includes several canonical matrix games and provides a normative theory for why existing algorithms fail in self-play in such games. We address this problem by introducing Welfare Equilibria (WE) as a generalisation of Stackelberg Strategies, which can recover desirable Nash Equilibria even in non-coincidental games. Finally, we introduce Welfare Function Search (WelFuSe) as a practical approach to finding desirable WE against unknown opponents, which finds more mutually desirable solutions in self-play, while preserving performance against naive learning opponents., Comment: 31 pages, 23 figures

Benchmarks are crucial in the development of machine learning algorithms, with available environments significantly influencing reinforcement learning (RL) research. Traditionally, RL environments run on the CPU, which limits their scalability with typical academic compute. However, recent advancements in JAX have enabled the wider use of hardware acceleration, enabling massively parallel RL training pipelines and environments. While this has been successfully applied to single-agent RL, it has not yet been widely adopted for multi-agent scenarios. In this paper, we present JaxMARL, the first open-source, Python-based library that combines GPU-enabled efficiency with support for a large number of commonly used MARL environments and popular baseline algorithms. Our experiments show that, in terms of wall clock time, our JAX-based training pipeline is around 14 times faster than existing approaches, and up to 12500x when multiple training runs are vectorized. This enables efficient and thorough evaluations, potentially alleviating the evaluation crisis in the field. We also introduce and benchmark SMAX, a JAX-based approximate reimplementation of the popular StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge, which removes the need to run the StarCraft II game engine. This not only enables GPU acceleration, but also provides a more flexible MARL environment, unlocking the potential for self-play, meta-learning, and other future applications in MARL. The code is available at https://github.com/flairox/jaxmarl.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) offers a principled and elegant approach for sequential decision making under uncertainty. Most notably, Bayesian agents do not face an exploration/exploitation dilemma, a major pathology of frequentist methods. However theoretical understanding of model-free approaches is lacking. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian model-free formulation and the first analysis showing that model-free approaches can yield Bayes-optimal policies. We show all existing model-free approaches make approximations that yield policies that can be arbitrarily Bayes-suboptimal. As a first step towards model-free Bayes optimality, we introduce the Bayesian exploration network (BEN) which uses normalising flows to model both the aleatoric uncertainty (via density estimation) and epistemic uncertainty (via variational inference) in the Bellman operator. In the limit of complete optimisation, BEN learns true Bayes-optimal policies, but like in variational expectation-maximisation, partial optimisation renders our approach tractable. Empirical results demonstrate that BEN can learn true Bayes-optimal policies in tasks where existing model-free approaches fail., Comment: Typos fixed and provided clearer proof of Theorem 3.2

By enabling agents to communicate, recent cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methods have demonstrated better task performance and more coordinated behavior. Most existing approaches facilitate inter-agent communication by allowing agents to send messages to each other through free communication channels, i.e., cheap talk channels. Current methods require these channels to be constantly accessible and known to the agents a priori. In this work, we lift these requirements such that the agents must discover the cheap talk channels and learn how to use them. Hence, the problem has two main parts: cheap talk discovery (CTD) and cheap talk utilization (CTU). We introduce a novel conceptual framework for both parts and develop a new algorithm based on mutual information maximization that outperforms existing algorithms in CTD/CTU settings. We also release a novel benchmark suite to stimulate future research in CTD/CTU., Comment: The 11th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOC decision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of an incumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial play facilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategies robust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, these strategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts of capital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Our findings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectively mobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsible reallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enable the emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders.

Steganography is the practice of encoding secret information into innocuous content in such a manner that an adversarial third party would not realize that there is hidden meaning. While this problem has classically been studied in security literature, recent advances in generative models have led to a shared interest among security and machine learning researchers in developing scalable steganography techniques. In this work, we show that a steganography procedure is perfectly secure under Cachin (1998)'s information-theoretic model of steganography if and only if it is induced by a coupling. Furthermore, we show that, among perfectly secure procedures, a procedure maximizes information throughput if and only if it is induced by a minimum entropy coupling. These insights yield what are, to the best of our knowledge, the first steganography algorithms to achieve perfect security guarantees for arbitrary covertext distributions. To provide empirical validation, we compare a minimum entropy coupling-based approach to three modern baselines -- arithmetic coding, Meteor, and adaptive dynamic grouping -- using GPT-2, WaveRNN, and Image Transformer as communication channels. We find that the minimum entropy coupling-based approach achieves superior encoding efficiency, despite its stronger security constraints. In aggregate, these results suggest that it may be natural to view information-theoretic steganography through the lens of minimum entropy coupling.

Successful coordination in Dec-POMDPs requires agents to adopt robust strategies and interpretable styles of play for their partner. A common failure mode is symmetry breaking, when agents arbitrarily converge on one out of many equivalent but mutually incompatible policies. Commonly these examples include partial observability, e.g. waving your right hand vs. left hand to convey a covert message. In this paper, we present a novel equivariant network architecture for use in Dec-POMDPs that effectively leverages environmental symmetry for improving zero-shot coordination, doing so more effectively than prior methods. Our method also acts as a ``coordination-improvement operator'' for generic, pre-trained policies, and thus may be applied at test-time in conjunction with any self-play algorithm. We provide theoretical guarantees of our work and test on the AI benchmark task of Hanabi, where we demonstrate our methods outperforming other symmetry-aware baselines in zero-shot coordination, as well as able to improve the coordination ability of a variety of pre-trained policies. In particular, we show our method can be used to improve on the state of the art for zero-shot coordination on the Hanabi benchmark.

Tremendous progress has been made in reinforcement learning (RL) over the past decade. Most of these advancements came through the continual development of new algorithms, which were designed using a combination of mathematical derivations, intuitions, and experimentation. Such an approach of creating algorithms manually is limited by human understanding and ingenuity. In contrast, meta-learning provides a toolkit for automatic machine learning method optimisation, potentially addressing this flaw. However, black-box approaches which attempt to discover RL algorithms with minimal prior structure have thus far not outperformed existing hand-crafted algorithms. Mirror Learning, which includes RL algorithms, such as PPO, offers a potential middle-ground starting point: while every method in this framework comes with theoretical guarantees, components that differentiate them are subject to design. In this paper we explore the Mirror Learning space by meta-learning a "drift" function. We refer to the immediate result as Learnt Policy Optimisation (LPO). By analysing LPO we gain original insights into policy optimisation which we use to formulate a novel, closed-form RL algorithm, Discovered Policy Optimisation (DPO). Our experiments in Brax environments confirm state-of-the-art performance of LPO and DPO, as well as their transfer to unseen settings., Comment: NeurIPS 2022

Autonomous agents deployed in the real world need to be robust against adversarial attacks on sensory inputs. Robustifying agent policies requires anticipating the strongest attacks possible. We demonstrate that existing observation-space attacks on reinforcement learning agents have a common weakness: while effective, their lack of information-theoretic detectability constraints makes them detectable using automated means or human inspection. Detectability is undesirable to adversaries as it may trigger security escalations. We introduce {\epsilon}-illusory, a novel form of adversarial attack on sequential decision-makers that is both effective and of {\epsilon}-bounded statistical detectability. We propose a novel dual ascent algorithm to learn such attacks end-to-end. Compared to existing attacks, we empirically find {\epsilon}-illusory to be significantly harder to detect with automated methods, and a small study with human participants (IRB approval under reference R84123/RE001) suggests they are similarly harder to detect for humans. Our findings suggest the need for better anomaly detectors, as well as effective hardware- and system-level defenses. The project website can be found at https://tinyurl.com/illusory-attacks., Comment: ICLR 2024 Spotlight (top 5%)

Self-play is a common paradigm for constructing solutions in Markov games that can yield optimal policies in collaborative settings. However, these policies often adopt highly-specialized conventions that make playing with a novel partner difficult. To address this, recent approaches rely on encoding symmetry and convention-awareness into policy training, but these require strong environmental assumptions and can complicate policy training. We therefore propose moving the learning of conventions to the belief space. Specifically, we propose a belief learning model that can maintain beliefs over rollouts of policies not seen at training time, and can thus decode and adapt to novel conventions at test time. We show how to leverage this model for both search and training of a best response over various pools of policies to greatly improve ad-hoc teamplay. We also show how our setup promotes explainability and interpretability of nuanced agent conventions.

A physically-motivated genetic algorithm (GA) and full enumeration for a tile-based model of self-assembly (JaTAM) is implemented using a graphics processing unit (GPU). We observe performance gains with respect to state-of-the-art implementations on CPU of factor 7.7 for the GA and 2.9 for JaTAM. The correctness of our GA implementation is demonstrated using a test-bed fitness function, and our JaTAM implementation is verified by classifying a well-known search space $S_{2,8}$ based on two tile types. The performance gains achieved allow for the classification of a larger search space $S^{32}_{3,8}$ based on three tile types. The prevalence of structures based on two tile types demonstrates that simple organisms emerge preferrably even in complex ecosystems. The modularity of the largest structures found motivates the assumption that to first order, $S_{2,8}$ forms the building blocks of $S_{3,8}$. We conclude that GPUs may play an important role in future studies of evolutionary dynamics., Comment: MPhys Thesis, 2012. Awarded University of Oxford Tessella Prize

Surround-view fisheye cameras are commonly used for near-field sensing in automated driving. Four fisheye cameras on four sides of the vehicle are sufficient to cover 360{\deg} around the vehicle capturing the entire near-field region. Some primary use cases are automated parking, traffic jam assist, and urban driving. There are limited datasets and very little work on near-field perception tasks as the focus in automotive perception is on far-field perception. In contrast to far-field, surround-view perception poses additional challenges due to high precision object detection requirements of 10cm and partial visibility of objects. Due to the large radial distortion of fisheye cameras, standard algorithms cannot be extended easily to the surround-view use case. Thus, we are motivated to provide a self-contained reference for automotive fisheye camera perception for researchers and practitioners. Firstly, we provide a unified and taxonomic treatment of commonly used fisheye camera models. Secondly, we discuss various perception tasks and existing literature. Finally, we discuss the challenges and future direction., Comment: Accepted for publication at IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems

In general-sum games, the interaction of self-interested learning agents commonly leads to collectively worst-case outcomes, such as defect-defect in the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). To overcome this, some methods, such as Learning with Opponent-Learning Awareness (LOLA), shape their opponents' learning process. However, these methods are myopic since only a small number of steps can be anticipated, are asymmetric since they treat other agents as naive learners, and require the use of higher-order derivatives, which are calculated through white-box access to an opponent's differentiable learning algorithm. To address these issues, we propose Model-Free Opponent Shaping (M-FOS). M-FOS learns in a meta-game in which each meta-step is an episode of the underlying inner game. The meta-state consists of the inner policies, and the meta-policy produces a new inner policy to be used in the next episode. M-FOS then uses generic model-free optimisation methods to learn meta-policies that accomplish long-horizon opponent shaping. Empirically, M-FOS near-optimally exploits naive learners and other, more sophisticated algorithms from the literature. For example, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first method to learn the well-known Zero-Determinant (ZD) extortion strategy in the IPD. In the same settings, M-FOS leads to socially optimal outcomes under meta-self-play. Finally, we show that M-FOS can be scaled to high-dimensional settings., Comment: ICML 2022 camera ready version. Code: https://github.com/luchris429/Model-Free-Opponent-Shaping

Insufficient Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimation methods and short-term decision-making horizons have hindered the ability of carbon emitters to properly correct for the negative externalities of climate change, as well as the capacity of nations to balance economic and climate policy. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Retrospective Social Cost of Carbon Updating (ReSCCU), a novel mechanism that corrects for these limitations as empirically measured evidence is collected. To implement ReSCCU in the context of carbon taxation, we propose Retroactive Carbon Pricing (ReCaP), a market mechanism in which polluters offload the payment of ReSCCU adjustments to insurers. To alleviate systematic risks and minimize government involvement, we introduce the Private ReCaP (PReCaP) prediction market, which could see real-world implementation based on the engagement of a few high net-worth individuals or independent institutions.

Modern deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are motivated by either the generalised policy iteration (GPI) or trust-region learning (TRL) frameworks. However, algorithms that strictly respect these theoretical frameworks have proven unscalable. Surprisingly, the only known scalable algorithms violate the GPI/TRL assumptions, e.g. due to required regularisation or other heuristics. The current explanation of their empirical success is essentially "by analogy": they are deemed approximate adaptations of theoretically sound methods. Unfortunately, studies have shown that in practice these algorithms differ greatly from their conceptual ancestors. In contrast, in this paper we introduce a novel theoretical framework, named Mirror Learning, which provides theoretical guarantees to a large class of algorithms, including TRPO and PPO. While the latter two exploit the flexibility of our framework, GPI and TRL fit in merely as pathologically restrictive corner cases thereof. This suggests that the empirical performance of state-of-the-art methods is a direct consequence of their theoretical properties, rather than of aforementioned approximate analogies. Mirror learning sets us free to boldly explore novel, theoretically sound RL algorithms, a thus far uncharted wonderland.

Cyber attacks are increasing in volume, frequency, and complexity. In response, the security community is looking toward fully automating cyber defense systems using machine learning. However, so far the resultant effects on the coevolutionary dynamics of attackers and defenders have not been examined. In this whitepaper, we hypothesise that increased automation on both sides will accelerate the coevolutionary cycle, thus begging the question of whether there are any resultant fixed points, and how they are characterised. Working within the threat model of Locked Shields, Europe's largest cyberdefense exercise, we study blackbox adversarial attacks on network classifiers. Given already existing attack capabilities, we question the utility of optimal evasion attack frameworks based on minimal evasion distances. Instead, we suggest a novel reinforcement learning setting that can be used to efficiently generate arbitrary adversarial perturbations. We then argue that attacker-defender fixed points are themselves general-sum games with complex phase transitions, and introduce a temporally extended multi-agent reinforcement learning framework in which the resultant dynamics can be studied. We hypothesise that one plausible fixed point of AI-NIDS may be a scenario where the defense strategy relies heavily on whitelisted feature flow subspaces. Finally, we demonstrate that a continual learning approach is required to study attacker-defender dynamics in temporally extended general-sum games.

We consider the problem of communicating exogenous information by means of Markov decision process trajectories. This setting, which we call a Markov coding game (MCG), generalizes both source coding and a large class of referential games. MCGs also isolate a problem that is important in decentralized control settings in which cheap-talk is not available -- namely, they require balancing communication with the associated cost of communicating. We contribute a theoretically grounded approach to MCGs based on maximum entropy reinforcement learning and minimum entropy coupling that we call MEME. Due to recent breakthroughs in approximation algorithms for minimum entropy coupling, MEME is not merely a theoretical algorithm, but can be applied to practical settings. Empirically, we show both that MEME is able to outperform a strong baseline on small MCGs and that MEME is able to achieve strong performance on extremely large MCGs. To the latter point, we demonstrate that MEME is able to losslessly communicate binary images via trajectories of Cartpole and Pong, while simultaneously achieving the maximal or near maximal expected returns, and that it is even capable of performing well in the presence of actuator noise., Comment: ICML 2022

In this work we explore an auxiliary loss useful for reinforcement learning in environments where strong performing agents are required to be able to navigate a spatial environment. The auxiliary loss proposed is to minimize the classification error of a neural network classifier that predicts whether or not a pair of states sampled from the agents current episode trajectory are in order. The classifier takes as input a pair of states as well as the agent's memory. The motivation for this auxiliary loss is that there is a strong correlation with which of a pair of states is more recent in the agents episode trajectory and which of the two states is spatially closer to the agent. Our hypothesis is that learning features to answer this question encourages the agent to learn and internalize in memory representations of states that facilitate spatial reasoning. We tested this auxiliary loss on a navigation task in a gridworld and achieved 9.6% increase in accumulative episode reward compared to a strong baseline approach.

Surround View fisheye cameras are commonly deployed in automated driving for 360\deg{} near-field sensing around the vehicle. This work presents a multi-task visual perception network on unrectified fisheye images to enable the vehicle to sense its surrounding environment. It consists of six primary tasks necessary for an autonomous driving system: depth estimation, visual odometry, semantic segmentation, motion segmentation, object detection, and lens soiling detection. We demonstrate that the jointly trained model performs better than the respective single task versions. Our multi-task model has a shared encoder providing a significant computational advantage and has synergized decoders where tasks support each other. We propose a novel camera geometry based adaptation mechanism to encode the fisheye distortion model both at training and inference. This was crucial to enable training on the WoodScape dataset, comprised of data from different parts of the world collected by 12 different cameras mounted on three different cars with different intrinsics and viewpoints. Given that bounding boxes is not a good representation for distorted fisheye images, we also extend object detection to use a polygon with non-uniformly sampled vertices. We additionally evaluate our model on standard automotive datasets, namely KITTI and Cityscapes. We obtain the state-of-the-art results on KITTI for depth estimation and pose estimation tasks and competitive performance on the other tasks. We perform extensive ablation studies on various architecture choices and task weighting methodologies. A short video at https://youtu.be/xbSjZ5OfPes provides qualitative results., Comment: Best Robot Vision paper award finalist (top 4). Camera ready version accepted for RA-L and ICRA 2021 publication

Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen the access to accurate multi-day forecasts, to mitigate against such events. However, there is currently no benchmark dataset dedicated to the study of global precipitation forecasts. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{RainBench}, a new multi-modal benchmark dataset for data-driven precipitation forecasting. It includes simulated satellite data, a selection of relevant meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis product, and IMERG precipitation data. We also release \textbf{PyRain}, a library to process large precipitation datasets efficiently. We present an extensive analysis of our novel dataset and establish baseline results for two benchmark medium-range precipitation forecasting tasks. Finally, we discuss existing data-driven weather forecasting methodologies and suggest future research avenues., Comment: Work completed during the 2020 Frontier Development Lab research accelerator, a private-public partnership with NASA in the US, and ESA in Europe. Accepted as a spotlight/long oral talk at both Climate Change and AI, as well as AI for Earth Sciences Workshops at NeurIPS 2020

Most recently developed approaches to cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning in the \emph{centralized training with decentralized execution} setting involve estimating a centralized, joint value function. In this paper, we demonstrate that, despite its various theoretical shortcomings, Independent PPO (IPPO), a form of independent learning in which each agent simply estimates its local value function, can perform just as well as or better than state-of-the-art joint learning approaches on popular multi-agent benchmark suite SMAC with little hyperparameter tuning. We also compare IPPO to several variants; the results suggest that IPPO's strong performance may be due to its robustness to some forms of environment non-stationarity.

In classical computer vision, rectification is an integral part of multi-view depth estimation. It typically includes epipolar rectification and lens distortion correction. This process simplifies the depth estimation significantly, and thus it has been adopted in CNN approaches. However, rectification has several side effects, including a reduced field of view (FOV), resampling distortion, and sensitivity to calibration errors. The effects are particularly pronounced in case of significant distortion (e.g., wide-angle fisheye cameras). In this paper, we propose a generic scale-aware self-supervised pipeline for estimating depth, euclidean distance, and visual odometry from unrectified monocular videos. We demonstrate a similar level of precision on the unrectified KITTI dataset with barrel distortion comparable to the rectified KITTI dataset. The intuition being that the rectification step can be implicitly absorbed within the CNN model, which learns the distortion model without increasing complexity. Our approach does not suffer from a reduced field of view and avoids computational costs for rectification at inference time. To further illustrate the general applicability of the proposed framework, we apply it to wide-angle fisheye cameras with 190$^\circ$ horizontal field of view. The training framework UnRectDepthNet takes in the camera distortion model as an argument and adapts projection and unprojection functions accordingly. The proposed algorithm is evaluated further on the KITTI rectified dataset, and we achieve state-of-the-art results that improve upon our previous work FisheyeDistanceNet. Qualitative results on a distorted test scene video sequence indicate excellent performance https://youtu.be/K6pbx3bU4Ss., Comment: Minor fixes added after IROS 2020 Camera ready submission. IROS 2020 presentation video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Br2KSWZRrY

Multi-agent settings in the real world often involve tasks with varying types and quantities of agents and non-agent entities; however, common patterns of behavior often emerge among these agents/entities. Our method aims to leverage these commonalities by asking the question: ``What is the expected utility of each agent when only considering a randomly selected sub-group of its observed entities?'' By posing this counterfactual question, we can recognize state-action trajectories within sub-groups of entities that we may have encountered in another task and use what we learned in that task to inform our prediction in the current one. We then reconstruct a prediction of the full returns as a combination of factors considering these disjoint groups of entities and train this ``randomly factorized" value function as an auxiliary objective for value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning. By doing so, our model can recognize and leverage similarities across tasks to improve learning efficiency in a multi-task setting. Our approach, Randomized Entity-wise Factorization for Imagined Learning (REFIL), outperforms all strong baselines by a significant margin in challenging multi-task StarCraft micromanagement settings., Comment: ICML 2021 Camera Ready

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning, specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria (https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators.

In many real-world settings, a team of agents must coordinate its behaviour while acting in a decentralised fashion. At the same time, it is often possible to train the agents in a centralised fashion where global state information is available and communication constraints are lifted. Learning joint action-values conditioned on extra state information is an attractive way to exploit centralised learning, but the best strategy for then extracting decentralised policies is unclear. Our solution is QMIX, a novel value-based method that can train decentralised policies in a centralised end-to-end fashion. QMIX employs a mixing network that estimates joint action-values as a monotonic combination of per-agent values. We structurally enforce that the joint-action value is monotonic in the per-agent values, through the use of non-negative weights in the mixing network, which guarantees consistency between the centralised and decentralised policies. To evaluate the performance of QMIX, we propose the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) as a new benchmark for deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. We evaluate QMIX on a challenging set of SMAC scenarios and show that it significantly outperforms existing multi-agent reinforcement learning methods., Comment: Extended version of the ICML 2018 conference paper (arXiv:1803.11485)

We propose FACtored Multi-Agent Centralised policy gradients (FACMAC), a new method for cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning in both discrete and continuous action spaces. Like MADDPG, a popular multi-agent actor-critic method, our approach uses deep deterministic policy gradients to learn policies. However, FACMAC learns a centralised but factored critic, which combines per-agent utilities into the joint action-value function via a non-linear monotonic function, as in QMIX, a popular multi-agent Q-learning algorithm. However, unlike QMIX, there are no inherent constraints on factoring the critic. We thus also employ a nonmonotonic factorisation and empirically demonstrate that its increased representational capacity allows it to solve some tasks that cannot be solved with monolithic, or monotonically factored critics. In addition, FACMAC uses a centralised policy gradient estimator that optimises over the entire joint action space, rather than optimising over each agent's action space separately as in MADDPG. This allows for more coordinated policy changes and fully reaps the benefits of a centralised critic. We evaluate FACMAC on variants of the multi-agent particle environments, a novel multi-agent MuJoCo benchmark, and a challenging set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results demonstrate FACMAC's superior performance over MADDPG and other baselines on all three domains.

Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework., Comment: AISTATS 2022 camera ready