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Decision science emphasizes necessary elements required for robust decision-making. By incorporating decision science principles, frameworks, and tools, it has been demonstrated that decision-makers can increase the chances of achieving conservation aims. Setting measurable objectives, clearly documenting assumptions about the impact of available actions on a specific threat or problem, explicitly considering constraints, exploring and characterizing uncertainty, and structured deliberation on trade-offs have been identified as key elements of successful decision-making. We quantify the extent to which these five elements were utilized in published examples of decision making in conservation in both academic and conservation practice between 2009 and 2018. We found that less than 50% of identified examples included all five elements, with differences in the degree of decision science applied across five commonly used decision support approaches: adaptive management (AM), systematic conservation planning (SCP), structured decision making (SDM), multi-criteria decision analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis. Example applications that utilized the SDM framework were limited in numbers but used on average more than 50% of the five key elements we considered. Although SCP and AM constituted the majority of examples, they were more prevalent in academic studies rather than management applications. SCP and AM examples were widespread in protected area planning, threat abatement, and restoration. Strong geographic bias exists in documented conservation activities that deploy all five decision science elements.

Feral cats (Felis catus) pose a significant global threat to biodiversity, primarily through predation, disease and competition. A key gap in parameterizing models for improving management decisions for feral cat control relates to factors that drive feral cat survival and movement in the wild. Our study objective was to conduct the first continental-scale analysis of survival rates and displacement distances for feral cats. We collated data on 528 feral cats from telemetry studies in naturally-vegetated landscapes across Australia. Using Cox-proportional hazards models, we investigated the effects of sex, presence of larger predators (dingoes, Canis familiaris and introduced foxes, Vulpes vulpes), presence of introduced prey (rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus), body mass, landscape productivity and feral cat density on feral cat survival. We also analysed the effects of sex, body mass and landscape productivity on feral cat displacement using linear mixed model analysis. Feral cat survival was positively associated with presence of dingoes and increasing body mass, whereas there was no clear association between feral cat survival and sex, presence of rabbits, or cat density. Presence of foxes had a strong negative effect on feral cat survival, but the hazard ratio was associated with considerable uncertainty. Net displacement of male feral cats was nearly two times further than that of females, and the proportion of feral cats making long-distance movements was greater in landscapes with low productivity. Increasing body mass of feral cats was positively related to net displacement, with heavier cats moving further. Analysis of metadata from telemetry studies can provide valuable insights into wildlife survival rates and movement behaviour. Our findings will help inform the development of effective management strategies and improve feral cat management for biodiversity conservation.

Conservation science practitioners seek to preempt irreversible impacts on species, ecosystems, and social–ecological systems, requiring efficient and timely action even when data and understanding are unavailable, incomplete, dated, or biased. These challenges are exacerbated by the scientific community's capacity to consistently distinguish between reliable and unreliable evidence, including the recognition of questionable research practices (QRPs, or “questionable practices”), which may threaten the credibility of research, including harming trust in well‐designed and reliable scientific research. In this paper, we propose a “toolkit” for open and pluralistic conservation science, highlighting common questionable practices and sources of bias and indicating where remedies for these problems may be found. The toolkit provides an accessible resource for anyone conducting, reviewing, or using conservation research, to identify sources of false claims or misleading evidence that arise unintentionally, or through misunderstandings or carelessness in the application of scientific methods and analyses. We aim to influence editorial and review practices and hopefully to remedy problems before they are published or deployed in policy or conservation practice.

Community-based conservation can support livelihoods and biodiversity, while reinforcing local and Indigenous values, cultures, and institutions. Its delivery can help address cross-cutting global challenges, such as climate change, conservation, poverty, and food security. Therefore, understanding trends in community-based conservation is pertinent to setting and implementing global goals. We undertook a horizon scan to prioritize 15 emerging threats and opportunities expected to impact the future effectiveness of community-based conservation. Topics relate to global biodiversity policy; human rights; shifting human geography; inclusion, diversity, equity, and access; conservation finance and income; and economic reforms. Our findings offer guidance on strengthening community-based conservation to achieve global environmental and development goals.

Aims Reconnaissance surveys followed by monitoring are needed to assess the impact and response of biodiversity to wildfire. However, post‐wildfire survey and monitoring design are challenging due to the infrequency and unpredictability of wildfire, an urgency to initiate surveys and uncertainty about how species respond. In this article, we discuss key design considerations and quantitative tools available to aid post‐wildfire survey design. Our motivation was to inform the design of rapid surveys for threatened species heavily impacted by the 2019–2020 fires in Australia. Location Global. Methods We discuss a set of best practice design considerations for post‐wildfire reconnaissance surveys across a range of survey objectives. We provide examples that illustrate key design considerations from post‐fire reconnaissance surveys and monitoring programmes from around the world. Results We highlight how the objective of post‐fire surveys drastically influences design decisions (e.g. survey location and timing). We discuss how the unpredictability of wildfire and uncertainty in the response of biodiversity complicate survey design decisions. Main conclusions Surveys should be conducted immediately following wildfire to assess the impact on biodiversity, to ground truth fire severity mapping and to provide a benchmark from which to assess recovery. Where possible, surveys should be conducted at burnt and unburnt sites in regions with historical data so that state variables of interest can be compared with baseline estimates (i.e. BACI design). This highlights the need to have long‐term monitoring programmes already in place and be prepared to modify their design when wildfires occur. There is opportunity to adopt tools from statistics (i.e. power analysis) and conservation planning (i.e. spatial prioritization) to improve survey design. We must anticipate wildfires rather than respond to them reactively as they will occur more frequently due to climate change.

Summary Indigenous people are the custodians of knowledge systems that hold detailed awareness of the environment, including applications for monitoring and management to improve biodiversity and cultural outcomes. Indigenous communities are increasingly participating in programs to monitor populations of wildlife. There is a need for frameworks to guide how Indigenous priorities, aspirations and culture can be respected within monitoring programs, as well as case studies that demonstrate how Indigenous knowledge and practice can provide opportunities together with Western science practice to improve the rigour and outcomes of wildlife monitoring. Here, we describe the process of developing a monitoring program that was tailored to be carried out by Kanyirninpa Jukurrpa Indigenous ranger teams to assess the status, trend and response to the management of a threatened and culturally significant species Mankarr (Greater Bilby; Macrotis lagotis). We applied a collaborative two‐way approach, using iterative consultations, elicitations and field trials involving Indigenous and non‐Indigenous project partners to define monitoring objectives, record biocultural knowledge and tailor a sampling methodology to fit the requirements of Martu Traditional Owners. Our project focused on creating a method that would be engaging, accessible and useful for rangers who would carry out the program, and prioritized collection of relevant data for community decision‐making regarding management. We outline our key learnings for co‐design of wildlife monitoring programs on Indigenous lands. Our approach provides insights that will assist in designing other cross‐cultural or participatory monitoring programs.

This project has developed and tested a framework for assessing research value across the life cycle of conservation research projects and programs. This is the first comprehensive attempt of its kind to build and test a multimodal, integrated, qualitative and quantitative framework for achieving and assessing value in environmental research. The report focuses on research ‘value’, not just ‘impact’. Achieving research value is strongly dependent on effective engagement and building appropriate ‘pathways to impact’. The framework is designed as a flexible guide that can be drawn upon for a wide range of valuation purposes, and that can be applied (as appropriate) at any point through the life cycle of research projects or after completion. It is designed for practical application in agencies across a wide range of sectors, including research, research funding, government and land management agencies.

Replication is a hallmark of scientific research. As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the replicability are required. We introduce a new technique to evaluating replicability, the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process, a structured expert elicitation approach based on the IDEA protocol. The repliCATS process is delivered through an underpinning online platform and applied to the evaluation of research claims in social and behavioural sciences. This process can be deployed for both rapid assessment of small numbers of claims, and assessment of high volumes of claims over an extended period. Pilot data suggests that the accuracy of the repliCATS process meets or exceeds that of other techniques used to predict replicability. An important advantage of the repliCATS process is that it collects qualitative data that has the potential to assist with problems like understanding the limits of generalizability of scientific claims. The repliCATS process has potential applications in alternative peer review and in the allocation of effort for replication studies.

In recent years there has been increased interest in replicating prior research. One of the biggest challenges to assessing replicability is the cost in resources and time that it takes to repeat studies. Thus there is an impetus to develop rapid elicitation protocols that can, in a practical manner, estimate the likelihood that research findings will successfully replicate. We employ a novel implementation of the IDEA ('Investigate', 'Discuss', 'Estimate' and 'Aggregate) protocol, realised through the repliCATS platform. The repliCATS platform is designed to scalably elicit expert opinion about replicability of social and behavioural science research. The IDEA protocol provides a structured methodology for eliciting judgements and reasoning from groups. This paper describes the repliCATS platform as a multi-user cloud-based software platform featuring (1) a technical implementation of the IDEA protocol for eliciting expert opinion on research replicability, (2) capture of consent and demographic data, (3) on-line training on replication concepts, and (4) exporting of completed judgements. The platform has, to date, evaluated 3432 social and behavioural science research claims from 637 participants.

New and emerging environmental issues make policy and practice difficult. A pressing need to respond when knowledge of the problem is limited is added to an already challenging conservation agenda. Horizon-scanning is an evolving approach that draws on diverse information sources to identify early indications of poorly recognised threats and opportunities. There are many ways to conduct horizon scans, ranging from automated techniques that scan online content and mine text to manual methods that systematically consult large groups of people (often experts). These different approaches aim to sort through vast volumes of information to look for signals of change, for example the rise in microplastics or the use of mobile phones to gather data in remote forests. Identifying these new threats and opportunities is the first important step towards further researching and managing them. This chapter reviews different approaches to horizon-scanning, together with ways of encouraging uptake of scanning outputs. It concludes by introducing emerging technologies that will add value to horizon-scanning in the future.

Understanding the conditions under which small native Australian mammals can persist in the presence of introduced predators remains a key challenge to conservation ecologists. Bettong‐specific one‐way gates were used at a predator‐free reserve in South Australia to allow the burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) – a small potoroid, listed as ‘vulnerable’ nationally – to disperse out of the reserve. We conducted a field experiment to explore the conditions affecting residence time of bettongs that left the reserve. We monitored bettong and mammalian predator activity outside the fence using track surveys across 18 sites over two seasons. We examined the effect of supplementary feeding as a strategy for increasing residence time, as well as the influence of predator presence and habitat quality, using linear mixed models. Bettong activity was positively associated with supplementary feeding, midstorey vegetation cover and shelter availability. After gates were closed, bettong activity near gates declined to almost zero the following weeks, likely either due to death from predation or due to movement away from the sites. To a small extent, mammalian predators were more likely to be present at sites with high bettong activity. Further research on conditions to support persistence of burrowing bettongs and other small mammals, including understanding minimum necessary predator control effort, is required before successful establishment of populations outside of fences can occur.

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework

Monitoring is an essential component of adaptive management, and a carefully designed program is needed to ensure high-quality data and inferences over realistic time scales. Co-operation among agencies and incorporating citizen science may help enhance learning while reducing the financial costs of monitoring. We seek to realise this potential while conserving the Australian malleefowl (Leipoa ocellata). An established network of citizen scientists provide low-cost, sustainable annual monitoring data, yet the most effective actions for conserving malleefowl remain highly uncertain. The continent-wide species' distribution presents significant challenges, including multiple environmental strata to sample and numerous management jurisdictions. We outline an adaptive management framework that aims to unify malleefowl conservation priorities nationally, and target monitoring efforts. We elicited a model structure for the drivers of, and threats to, malleefowl persistence in a workshop with land managers and advocates. We parameterised 80 uncertain interactions within this structure using novel ensemble modelling techniques and identified the effectiveness of predator control as a critical uncertainty affecting malleefowl persistence. We developed a classical, spatially replicated experimental design to test whether malleefowl breed more frequently where predators are suppressed. The proposed monitoring design will rely on the contributions of several dozen land managers and 200–300 citizen scientists annually. We have developed a broad stakeholder base, a proactive communication strategy, and an agile approach to accessing resources to foster resilience and longevity in the monitoring program. If malleefowl conservation successfully adapts in response to monitoring outcomes, it will become one of the largest adaptive management programs on the planet.

Although evidence-based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three-quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one-third of high-impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence-based conservation science.

People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. 'very likely') in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty. Simply providing numerical translations alongside reports or text containing verbal probabilities should encourage consistency, but these guidelines are often ignored. In an online experiment with 924 participants, we compared four different formats for presenting verbal probabilities with the numerical guidelines used in the US Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203 to see whether any could improve the correspondence between the intended meaning and participants' interpretation ('in-context'). This extends previous work in the domain of climate science. The four experimental conditions we tested were: 1. numerical guidelines bracketed in text, e.g. X is very unlikely (05-20%), 2. click to see the full guidelines table in a new window, 3. numerical guidelines appear in a mouse over tool tip, and 4. no guidelines provided (control). Results indicate that correspondence with the ICD 203 standard is substantially improved only when numerical guidelines are bracketed in text. For this condition, average correspondence was 66%, compared with 32% in the control. We also elicited 'context-free' numerical judgements from participants for each of the seven verbal probability expressions contained in ICD 203 (i.e., we asked participants what range of numbers they, personally, would assign to those expressions), and constructed 'evidence-based lexicons' based on two methods from similar research, 'membership functions' and 'peak values', that reflect our large sample's intuitive translations of the terms. Better aligning the intended and assumed meaning of fuzzy words like 'unlikely' can reduce communication problems between the reporter and receiver of probabilistic information. In turn, this can improve decision making under uncertainty.

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Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically.

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

Habitat restoration, including revegetation of linear strips and enlargement of remnant patches, may benefit native fauna in highly fragmented landscapes. Such restoration has occurred around the world, even though the relative importance of strips and patches of vegetation remains controversial. Using reptile communities from south-eastern Australia, we assessed the conservation value of revegetation in strips and alongside remnant patches compared with remnant vegetation and cleared roadsides. We also examined the distance that reptiles occurred from remnant patches into linear vegetation. We found that reptile species richness and counts did not substantially differ between revegetated, remnant and cleared habitats, or between linear strip and patch treatments. This may indicate that species sensitive to land clearing have already been lost from the landscape. These results imply that if specialist species have already been lost, we may be unable to measure the effects of agriculture on biodiversity. Furthermore, revegetation with the expectation that fauna will recolonize may be unrealistic and translocations may be necessary. Unexpectedly, we recorded higher species richness and counts of rare reptile species in remnant linear strips as distance from remnant patches increased. Ground-layer attributes were important for increasing reptile species richness and counts and in structuring reptile communities, explaining approximately three times as much variation as remnant shape or vegetation type (remnant, revegetated, cleared). Management agencies should protect and effectively manage remnant linear strips if rarer reptiles are to be retained, paying particular attention to ground-layer attributes. The decision to include ground layers in future revegetation activities will be more important than the shape of restored areas.

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Policy-makers and managers in natural resource management (NRM) often complain that researchers are out of touch. Researchers often complain that policy-makers and managers make poorly informed decisions. In this article, we report on a meeting between researchers, policy-makers and managers convened to identify practical solutions to improve engagement between these camps. A necessary starting point is that every researcher and policy-maker should understand, and tap into, the motivations and reward systems of the other when seeking engagement. For example, researchers can be motivated to engage in policy development if there is a promise of outputs that align with their reward systems such as co-authored publications. Successful research–policy partnerships are built around personal relationships. As a researcher, you cannot therefore expect your results to inform policy by only publishing in journals. As a policy-maker, you cannot guarantee engagement from researchers by publicly inviting comment on a document. Actively building and maintaining relationships with key individuals through discussions, meetings, workshops or field days will increase the likelihood that research outcomes will inform policy decisions. We identified secondments, sabbaticals, fellowships and ‘buddies’, an annual national NRM conference and ‘contact mapping’ (a Facebook-type network) as forums that can catalyse new relationships between researchers and policy-makers. We challenge every researcher, policy-maker and manager in NRM to build one new cross-cultural relationship each year.