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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of winter thaws, which could affect leaf phenology. Phenology could either be advanced through the acceleration of forcing accumulation or chilling completion, or be postponed through a reduction in chilling associated with warming air temperature. We tested the influence of winter thaws on budburst phenology by exposing 300 tree cuttings of sugar maple and yellow birch trees to five different frequencies and durations of winter thaws in the lab. In spring, half of the cuttings were exposed to air temperature in two cities representing an air temperature gradient of + 2.0 °C to mimic the ongoing climate warming and bud phenology was monitored three times a week. Irrespective of thaw treatment, yellow birch bud phenology occurred earlier in the warmer city, showing the importance of spring temperature in triggering budburst. The treatment with the highest frequency and duration of thawing increased bud mortality and delayed the onset of spring budburst whereas low frequency treatments did not, thereby identifying a tipping point (3 days twice a month) in the impact of winter thaws on bud phenology. Past this point, winter thaws could slow down bud phenology induced by warmer spring temperature and limit carbon uptake by delaying the closure of the canopy. Climate change simulations projected by the CMIP6 Canadian downscaled climate scenario show that winter thaws will increase in frequency Hence the expected advance in spring leaf emergence associated with warmer spring is not necessarily as straightforward as previously thought.

• Background Effects of cooling rates on bud frost hardiness have been studied but there is little information on bud responses to thawing. Since the cell wall pore size has been found to increase with boron (B) deficiency, B deficiency may affect the supercooling ability of buds in winter.• Methods The effects of duration of thawing time and rate of cooling on bud frost hardiness of Norway spruce (Picea abies) were studied in a B fertilization trial in February 2003 and March 2005. Frost hardiness of apical buds was determined by differential thermal analysis (DTA) and visual scoring of damage.• Key Results In 2003, the freezing point of primordial shoots of buds (Tf), i.e. the low-temperature exotherm (LTE), was, on average, −39 °C when buds were thawed for less than 3 h and the Tf increased to −21 °C after 18 h of thawing. During the first 4 h of thawing, the rate of dehardening was 6 °C h−1. In 2005, buds dehardened linearly from −39 °C to −35 °C at a rate of 0·7 °C h−1. In 2003, different cooling rates of 1–5 °C h−1 had a minor effect on Tf but in 2005 with slow cooling rates Tf decreased. In both samplings, at cooling rates of 2 and 1 °C h−1, Tf was slightly higher in B-fertilized than in non-fertilized trees. By contrast, at very short thawing times in 2003, Tf was somewhat lower in B-fertilized trees.• Conclusions There was little evidence of reduced frost hardiness in trees with low B status. This study showed that buds deharden rapidly when exposed to above-freezing temperatures in winter, but if cooled again they reharden more slowly. According to this study, rapid dehardening of buds has to be taken into account in assessments of frost hardiness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]