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The aim of this white paper is to briefly summarize some of the outstanding gaps in the observations and modeling of stellar flares, CMEs, and exoplanetary space weather, and to discuss how the theoretical and computational tools and methods that have been developed in heliophysics can play a critical role in meeting these challenges. The maturity of data-inspired and data-constrained modeling of the Sun-to-Earth space weather chain provides a natural starting point for the development of new, multidisciplinary research and applications to other stars and their exoplanetary systems. Here we present recommendations for future solar CME research to further advance stellar flare and CME studies. These recommendations will require institutional and funding agency support for both fundamental research (e.g. theoretical considerations and idealized eruptive flare/CME numerical modeling) and applied research (e.g. data inspired/constrained modeling and estimating exoplanetary space weather impacts). In short, we recommend continued and expanded support for: (1.) Theoretical and numerical studies of CME initiation and low coronal evolution, including confinement of "failed" eruptions; (2.) Systematic analyses of Sun-as-a-star observations to develop and improve stellar CME detection techniques and alternatives; (3.) Improvements in data-inspired and data-constrained MHD modeling of solar CMEs and their application to stellar systems; and (4.) Encouraging comprehensive solar--stellar research collaborations and conferences through new interdisciplinary and multi-agency/division funding mechanisms., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, white paper submitted to the Heliophysics 2024--2033 Decadal Survey

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of 106 sheath regions driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and measured near 1 AU. Using data from the STEREO probes, this extended analysis focuses on two discrete categorizations. In the first categorization, we investigate how the generic features of sheaths change with their potential formation mechanisms (propagation and expansion sheaths), namely, their associations with magnetic ejectas (MEs) which are primarily expanding or propagating in the solar wind. We find propagation sheaths to be denser and driven by stronger MEs, whereas expansion sheaths are faster. Exploring the temporal profiles of these sheaths with a superposed epoch technique, we observe that most of the magnetic field and plasma signatures are more elevated in propagation sheaths relative to expansion sheaths. The second categorization is based on speed variations across sheaths. Employing linear least squares regression, we categorize four distinct speed profiles of the sheath plasma. We find that the associated shock properties and solar cycle phase do not impact the occurrence of such variations. Our results also highlight that the properties of the driving MEs are a major source of variability in the sheath properties. Through logistic regression, we conclude that the magnetic field strength and the ME speed in the frame of the solar wind are likely drivers of these speed variations.

We examine 188 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) measured by the twin STEREO spacecraft during 2007-2016 to investigate the generic features of the CME sheath and the magnetic ejecta (ME) and dependencies of average physical parameters of the sheath on the ME. We classify the MEs into three categories, focusing on whether a ME drives both a shock and sheath, or only a sheath, or neither, near 1 AU. We also reevaluate our initial classification through an automated algorithm and visual inspection. We observe that even for leading edge speeds greater than 500 km/s, 1 out of 4 MEs do not drive shocks near 1 AU. MEs driving both shocks and sheaths are the fastest and propagate in high magnetosonic solar wind, whereas MEs driving only sheaths are the slowest and propagate in low magnetosonic solar wind. Our statistical and superposed epoch analyses indicate that all physical parameters are more enhanced in the sheath regions following shocks than in sheaths without shocks. However, differences within sheaths become statistically less significant for similar driving MEs. We also find that the radial thickness of ME-driven sheaths apparently has no clear linear correlation with the speed profile and associated Mach numbers of the driver.

The radial expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is known to occur from remote observations; from the variation of their properties with radial distance; and from local in situ plasma measurements showing a decreasing speed profile throughout the magnetic ejecta (ME). However, little is known on how local measurements compare to global measurements of expansion. Here, we present results from the analysis of 42 CMEs measured in the inner heliosphere by two spacecraft in radial conjunction. The magnetic field decrease with distance provides a measure of their global expansion. Near 1 au, the decrease in their bulk speed provides a measure of their local expansion. We find that these two measures have little relation with each other. We also investigate the relation between characteristics of CME expansion and CME properties. We find that the expansion depends on the initial magnetic field strength inside the ME, but not significantly on the magnetic field inside the ME measured near 1 au. This is an indirect evidence that CME expansion in the innermost heliosphere is driven by the high magnetic pressure inside the ME, while by the time the MEs reach 1 au, they are expanding due to the decrease in the solar wind dynamic pressure with distance. We also determine the evolution of the ME tangential and normal magnetic field components with distance, revealing significant deviations as compared to the expectations from force-free field configurations as well as some evidence that the front half of MEs expand at a faster rate than the back half., Comment: 14 pages, accepted to ApJ

Our knowledge of the properties of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere is constrained by the relative lack of plasma observations between Sun and 1 AU. In this work, we present a comprehensive catalog of 47 CMEs measured in situ measurements by two or more radially aligned spacecraft (MESSENGER, Venus Express, STEREO or Wind/ACE). We estimate the CME impact speeds at Mercury and Venus using a drag-based model and present an average propagation profile of CMEs (speed and deceleration/acceleration) in the inner heliosphere. We find that CME deceleration continues past Mercury's orbit but most of the deceleration occurs between the Sun and Mercury. We examine the exponential decrease of the maximum magnetic field strength in the CME with heliocentric distance using two approaches: a modified statistical method and analysis from individual conjunction events. Findings from both the approaches are on average consistent with previous studies but show significant event-to-event variability. We also find the expansion of the CME sheath to be well fit by a linear function. However, we observe the average sheath duration and its increase to be fairly independent of the initial CME speed, contradicting commonly held knowledge that slower CMEs drive larger sheaths. We also present an analysis of the 3 November 2011 CME observed in longitudinal conjunction between MESSENGER, Venus Express, and STEREO-B focusing on the expansion of the CME and its correlation with the exponential fall-off of the maximum magnetic field strength in the ejecta.

Using in situ measurements and remote-sensing observations, we study a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 9 July 2013 and impacted both Mercury and Earth while the planets were in radial alignment (within $3^\circ$). The CME had an initial speed as measured by coronagraphs of 580 $\pm$ 20 km s$^{-1}$, an inferred speed at Mercury of 580 $\pm$ 30 km s$^{-1}$ and a measured maximum speed at Earth of 530 km s$^{-1}$, indicating that it did not decelerate substantially in the inner heliosphere. The magnetic field measurements made by MESSENGER and {\it Wind} reveal a very similar magnetic ejecta at both planets. We consider the CME expansion as measured by the ejecta duration and the decrease of the magnetic field strength between Mercury and Earth and the velocity profile measured {\it in situ} by {\it Wind}. The long-duration magnetic ejecta (20 and 42 hours at Mercury and Earth, respectively) is found to be associated with a relatively slowly expanding ejecta at 1 AU, revealing that the large size of the ejecta is due to the CME itself or its expansion in the corona or innermost heliosphere, and not due to a rapid expansion between Mercury at 0.45 AU and Earth at 1 AU. We also find evidence that the CME sheath is composed of compressed material accumulated before the shock formed, as well as more recently shocked material., Comment: Accepted to JGRA

Long periods of strong southward magnetic fields are known to be the primary cause of intense geomagnetic storms. The majority of such events are caused by the passage over Earth of a magnetic ejecta. Irrespective of the interplanetary cause, fast-forward shocks often precede such strong southward B$_{z}$ periods. Here, we first look at all long periods of strong southward magnetic fields as well as fast-forward shocks measured by the \textit{Wind} spacecraft in a 22.4-year span. We find that 76{\%} of strong southward B$_{z}$ periods are preceded within 48 hours by at least a fast-forward shock but only about 23{\%} of all shocks are followed within 48 hours by strong southward B$_{z}$ periods. Then, we devise a threshold-based probabilistic forecasting method based on the shock properties and the pre-shock near-Earth solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field characteristics adopting a `superposed epoch analysis'-like approach. Our analysis shows that the solar wind conditions in the 30 minutes interval around the arrival of fast-forward shocks have a significant contribution to the prediction of long-duration southward B$_{z}$ periods. This probabilistic model may provide on average a 14-hour warning time for an intense and long-duration southward B$_{z}$ period. Evaluating the forecast capability of the model through a statistical and skill score-based approach reveals that it outperforms a coin-flipping forecast. By using the information provided by the arrival of a fast-forward shock at L1, this model represents a marked improvement over similar forecasting methods. We outline a number of future potential improvements., Comment: published in Space Weather, 22 Nov 2018

Measurements of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by multiple spacecraft at small radial separations but larger longitudinal separations is one of the ways to learn about the three-dimensional structure of CMEs. Here, we take advantage of the orbit of the Wind spacecraft that ventured to distances of up to 0.012 astronomical units (au) from the Sun-Earth line during the years 2000 to 2002. Combined with measurements from ACE, which is in a tight halo orbit around L1, the multipoint measurements allow us to investigate how the magnetic field inside magnetic ejecta (MEs) changes on scales of 0.005 - 0.012 au. We identify 21 CMEs measured by these two spacecraft for longitudinal separations of 0.007 au or more. We find that the time-shifted correlation between 30-minute averages of the non-radial magnetic field components measured at the two spacecraft is systematically above 0.97 when the separation is 0.008 au or less, but is on average 0.89 for greater separations. Overall, these newly analyzed measurements, combined with 14 additional ones when the spacecraft separation is smaller, point towards a scale length of longitudinal magnetic coherence inside MEs of 0.25 - 0.35 au for the magnitude of the magnetic field but 0.06 - 0.12 au for the magnetic field components. This finding raises questions about the very nature of MEs. It also highlights the need for additional "mesoscale" multi-point measurements of CMEs with longitudinal separations of 0.01 - 0.2 au., Comment: Published in ApJL, 6 pages

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the AGU journal "Space Weather" on 2017 July 1

We identify all fast-mode forward shocks, whose sheath regions resulted in a moderate (56 cases) or intense (38 cases) geomagnetic storm during 18.5 years from January 1997 to June 2015. We study their main properties, interplanetary causes and geo-effects. We find that half (49/94) such shocks are associated with interacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs), as they are either shocks propagating into a preceding CME (35 cases) or a shock propagating into the sheath region of a preceding shock (14 cases). About half (22/45) of the shocks driven by isolated transients and which have geo-effective sheaths compress pre-existing southward Bz. Most of the remaining sheaths appear to have planar structures with southward magnetic fields, including some with planar structures consistent with field line draping ahead of the magnetic ejecta. A typical (median) geo-effective shock-sheath structure drives a geomagnetic storm with peak Dst of -88 nT, pushes the subsolar magnetopause location to 6.3 Re, i.e. below geosynchronous orbit and is associated with substorms with a peak AL-index of -1350 nT. There are some important differences between sheaths associated with CME-CME interaction (stronger storms) and those associated with isolated CMEs (stronger compression of the magnetosphere). We detail six case studies of different types of geo-effective shock-sheaths, as well as two events for which there was no geomagnetic storm but other magnetospheric effects. Finally, we discuss our results in terms of space weather forecasting, and potential effects on Earth's radiation belts., Comment: 15 pages, 8 Figures, accepted by JGR