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2. Capture-Recapture Estimators in Epidemiology with Applications to Pertussis and Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Surveillance.

Author

Toon Braeye, Jan Verheagen, Annick Mignon, Wim Flipse, Denis Pierard, Kris Huygen, Carole Schirvel, and Niel Hens

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Surveillance networks are often not exhaustive nor completely complementary. In such situations, capture-recapture methods can be used for incidence estimation. The choice of estimator and their robustness with respect to the homogeneity and independence assumptions are however not well documented.We investigated the performance of five different capture-recapture estimators in a simulation study. Eight different scenarios were used to detect and combine case-information. The scenarios increasingly violated assumptions of independence of samples and homogeneity of detection probabilities. Belgian datasets on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pertussis provided motivating examples.No estimator was unbiased in all scenarios. Performance of the parametric estimators depended on how much of the dependency and heterogeneity were correctly modelled. Model building was limited by parameter estimability, availability of additional information (e.g. covariates) and the possibilities inherent to the method. In the most complex scenario, methods that allowed for detection probabilities conditional on previous detections estimated the total population size within a 20-30% error-range. Parametric estimators remained stable if individual data sources lost up to 50% of their data. The investigated non-parametric methods were more susceptible to data loss and their performance was linked to the dependence between samples; overestimating in scenarios with little dependence, underestimating in others. Issues with parameter estimability made it impossible to model all suggested relations between samples for the IPD and pertussis datasets. For IPD, the estimates for the Belgian incidence for cases aged 50 years and older ranged from 44 to58/100,000 in 2010. The estimates for pertussis (all ages, Belgium, 2014) ranged from 24.2 to30.8/100,000.We encourage the use of capture-recapture methods, but epidemiologists should preferably include datasets for which the underlying dependency structure is not too complex, a priori investigate this structure, compensate for it within the model and interpret the results with the remaining unmodelled heterogeneity in mind.

Published
2016
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3. Obstacles in measles elimination: an in-depth description of a measles outbreak in Ghent, Belgium, spring 2011

Author

Veronik Hutse, Geert Top, Lina Godderis, Toon Braeye, Martine Sabbe, and Wim Flipse

Subjects
Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Vaccine-preventable-disease, Isolation (health care), business.industry, Public health, Research, Immunization registry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Outbreak, medicine.disease, Measles, Vaccination, Immunization, Epidemiology, Medicine, Anti-vaccination, business
Abstract

Background: From Mid-February to April 2011 one of the largest measles-outbreak in Flanders, since the start of the 2-dose vaccination scheme in 1995, took place in Ghent, Belgium. The outbreak started in a day care center, infecting children too young to be vaccinated, after which it spread to anthroposophic schools with a low measles, mumps and rubella vaccination coverage. This report describes the outbreak and evaluates the control measures and interventions. Methods: Data collection was done through the system of mandatory notification of the public health authority. Vaccination coverage in the schools was assessed by a questionnaire and the electronic immunization database ‘Vaccinnet’. A case was defined as anyone with laboratory confirmed measles or with clinical symptoms and an epidemiological link to a laboratory confirmed case. Towards the end of the outbreak we only sought laboratory confirmation for persons with an atypical clinical presentation or without an epidemiological link. In search for an index patient we determined the measles IgG level of infants from the day care center. Results: A total of 65 cases were reported of which 31 were laboratory confirmed. Twenty-five were confirmed by PCR and/or IgM. In 6 infants, too young to be vaccinated, only elevated measles IgG levels were found. Most cases (72%) were young children (0–9 years old). All but two cases were completely unimmunized. In the day care center all the infants who were too young to be vaccinated (N=14) were included as cases. Thirteen of them were laboratory confirmed. Eight of these infants were hospitalized with symptoms suspicious for measles. Vaccination coverage in the affected anthroposophic schools was low, 45-49% of the pupils were unvaccinated. We organized vaccination campaigns in the schools and vaccinated 79 persons (25% of those unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated). Conclusions: Clustering of unvaccinated persons, in a day care center and in anthroposophic schools, allows for measles outbreaks and is an important obstacle for the elimination of measles. Isolation measures, a vacation period and an immunization campaign limited the spread of measles within the schools but could not prevent further spread among unvaccinated family members. It was necessary to raise clinicians' awareness of measles since it had become a rare, less known disease and went undiagnosed.

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