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4. Linking global terrestrial CO2 fluxes and environmental drivers: inferences from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 satellite and terrestrial biospheric models

Author

Chen, Zichong, Liu, Junjie, Henze, Daven K., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Wells, Kelley C., Sitch, Stephen, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Joetzjer, Emilie, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Goll, Daniel S., Haverd, Vanessa, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica L., McGuire, Patrick C., Melton, Joe R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Poulter, Benjamin, Tian, Hanqin, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sönke, and Miller, Scot M.

Subjects
Chemistry, Physics, QC1-999, QD1-999
Abstract

Observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite have been used to estimate CO2 fluxes in many regions of the globe and provide new insight into the global carbon cycle. The objective of this study is to infer the relationships between patterns in OCO-2 observations and environmental drivers (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and therefore inform a process understanding of carbon fluxes using OCO-2. We use a multiple regression and inverse model, and the regression coefficients quantify the relationships between observations from OCO-2 and environmental driver datasets within individual years for 2015–2018 and within seven global biomes. We subsequently compare these inferences to the relationships estimated from 15 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that participated in the TRENDY model inter-comparison. Using OCO-2, we are able to quantify only a limited number of relationships between patterns in atmospheric CO2 observations and patterns in environmental driver datasets (i.e., 10 out of the 42 relationships examined). We further find that the ensemble of TBMs exhibits a large spread in the relationships with these key environmental driver datasets. The largest uncertainty in the models is in the relationship with precipitation, particularly in the tropics, with smaller uncertainties for temperature and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Using observations from OCO-2, we find that precipitation is associated with increased CO2 uptake in all tropical biomes, a result that agrees with half of the TBMs. By contrast, the relationships that we infer from OCO-2 for temperature and PAR are similar to the ensemble mean of the TBMs, though the results differ from many individual TBMs. These results point to the limitations of current space-based observations for inferring environmental relationships but also indicate the potential to help inform key relationships that are very uncertain in state-of-the-art TBMs.

Published
2021

5. Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Matthew W., O'Sullivan, Michael, Andrew, Robbie M., Bakker, Dorothee C.E., Hauck, Judith, Le Quéré, Corinne, Peters, Glen P., Peters, Wouter, Pongratz, Julia, Sitch, Stephen, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Jackson, Rob B., Alin, Simone R., Anthoni, Peter, Bates, Nicholas R., Becker, Meike, Bellouin, Nicolas, Bopp, Laurent, Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Cronin, Margot, Currie, Kim I., Decharme, Bertrand, Djeutchouang, Laique M., Dou, Xinyu, Evans, Wiley, Feely, Richard A., Feng, Liang, Gasser, Thomas, Gilfillan, Dennis, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Grassi, Giacomo, Gregor, Luke, Gruber, Nicolas, Gürses, Özgür, Harris, Ian, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George C., Iida, Yosuke, Ilyina, Tatiana, Luijkx, Ingrid T., Jain, Atul, Jones, Steve D., Kato, Etsushi, Kennedy, Daniel, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Knauer, Jürgen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lauvset, Siv K., Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lienert, Sebastian, Liu, Junjie, Marland, Gregg, McGuire, Patrick C., Melton, Joe R., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E.M.S., Nakaoka, Shin Ichiro, Niwa, Yosuke, Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rödenbeck, Christian, Rosan, Thais M., Schwinger, Jörg, Schwingshackl, Clemens, Séférian, Roland, Sutton, Adrienne J., Sweeney, Colm, Tanhua, Toste, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Vuichard, Nicolas, Wada, Chisato, Wanninkhof, Rik, Watson, Andrew J., Willis, David, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Yuan, Wenping, Yue, Chao, Yue, Xu, Zaehle, Sönke, Zeng, Jiye, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4% relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.3±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2±0.8GtCyr-1 (37.4±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.4±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 2.9±1GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.8GtCyr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8% (4.2% to 5.4%) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Published
2022

7. Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, primary, Jones, Matthew W., additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Le Quéré, Corinne, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Jackson, Rob B., additional, Alin, Simone R., additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Bates, Nicholas R., additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chau, Thi Tuyet Trang, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Cronin, Margot, additional, Currie, Kim I., additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Djeutchouang, Laique M., additional, Dou, Xinyu, additional, Evans, Wiley, additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Feng, Liang, additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Gilfillan, Dennis, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Gregor, Luke, additional, Gruber, Nicolas, additional, Gürses, Özgür, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Hurtt, George C., additional, Iida, Yosuke, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Jain, Atul, additional, Jones, Steve D., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kennedy, Daniel, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Knauer, Jürgen, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Körtzinger, Arne, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lauvset, Siv K., additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Liu, Junjie, additional, Marland, Gregg, additional, McGuire, Patrick C., additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Niwa, Yosuke, additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Rosan, Thais M., additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Schwingshackl, Clemens, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Sutton, Adrienne J., additional, Sweeney, Colm, additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, Tubiello, Francesco, additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Wada, Chisato, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Watson, Andrew J., additional, Willis, David, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Yuan, Wenping, additional, Yue, Chao, additional, Yue, Xu, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Zeng, Jiye, additional

Published
2022
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11. Global Carbon Budget 2016

Author

Quéré, Corinne Le, Andrew, Robbie M, Canadell, Josep G, Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P, Manning, Andrew C, Boden, Thomas A, Tans, Pieter P, Houghton, Richard A, Keeling, Ralph F, Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D, Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P, Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Jain, Atul K, Kato, Etsushi, Koertzinger, Arne, Landschuetzer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S, Munro, David R, Nabel, Julia E. M. S, Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O’Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M, Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Roedenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Joerg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D, Sutton, Adrienne J, Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T, van der Werf, Guido R, Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P, Wiltshire, Andrew J, and Zaehle, Soenke

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Published
2016
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12. Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, primary, Jones, Matthew W., additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Le Quéré, Corinne, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Jackson, Rob B., additional, Alin, Simone R., additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Bates, Nicholas R., additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chau, Thi T. T., additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Cronin, Margot, additional, Currie, Kim I., additional, Decharme, Bertrand, additional, Djeutchouang, Laique, additional, Dou, Xinyu, additional, Evans, Wiley, additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Feng, Liang, additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Gilfillan, Dennis, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Gregor, Luke, additional, Gruber, Nicolas, additional, Gürses, Özgür, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Hurtt, George C., additional, Iida, Yosuke, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Jones, Steve D., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kennedy, Daniel, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Knauer, Jürgen, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Körtzinger, Arne, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lauvset, Siv K., additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Liu, Junjie, additional, Marland, Gregg, additional, McGuire, Patrick C., additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Niwa, Yosuke, additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Rosan, Thais M., additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Schwingshackl, Clemens, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Sutton, Adrienne J., additional, Sweeney, Colm, additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, Tubiello, Francesco, additional, van der Werf, Guido, additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Wada, Chisato, additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Watson, Andrew, additional, Willis, David, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Yuan, Wenping, additional, Yue, Chao, additional, Yue, Xu, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Zeng, Jiye, additional

Published
2021
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13. An alert system for Seasonal Fire probability forecast for South American Protected Areas

Author

Anderson, Liana O., primary, Burton, Chantelle, additional, dos Reis, João B. C., additional, Pessôa, Ana Carolina M., additional, Bett, Philip, additional, Carvalho, Nathália S., additional, Junior, Celso H. L. Silva, additional, Williams, Karina, additional, Selaya, Galia, additional, Armenteras, Dolors, additional, Bilbao, Bibiana A., additional, Xaud, Haron A. M., additional, Rivera‐Lombardi, Roberto, additional, Ferreira, Joice, additional, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, and Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional

Published
2021
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15. Deep instability of deforested tropical peatlands revealed by fluvial organic carbon fluxes

Author

Moore, Sam, Evans, Chris D., Page, Susan E., Garnett, Mark H., Jones, Tim G., Freeman, Chris, Hooijer, Aljosja, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Limin, Suwido H., and Gaud, Vincent

Subjects
Dissolved organic carbon -- Properties -- Measurement, Peat -- Chemical properties -- Environmental aspects, Peat-bogs -- Chemical properties -- Environmental aspects, Environmental issues, Zoology and wildlife conservation, Science and technology
Abstract

Tropical peatlands contain one of the largest pools of terrestrial organic carbon, amounting to about 89,000 teragrams (1) (1 Tg is a billion kilograms). Approximately 65 per cent of this [...]

Published
2013
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17. Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Author

Obermeier, Wolfgang A., primary, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Loughran, Tammas, additional, Hartung, Kerstin, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Havermann, Felix, additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Luyssaert, Sebastiaan, additional, McGuire, Patrick C., additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Sullivan, Michael O., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Zaehle, Soenke, additional, and Pongratz, Julia, additional

Published
2021
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18. Five years of variability in the global carbon cycle: comparing an estimate from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and process-based models

Author

Chen, Zichong, primary, Huntzinger, Deborah N, additional, Liu, Junjie, additional, Piao, Shilong, additional, Wang, Xuhui, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Goll, Daniel S, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Jain, Atul K, additional, Joetzjer, Emilie, additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica L, additional, McGuire, Patrick C, additional, Melton, Joe R, additional, Nabel, Julia E M S, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J, additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Miller, Scot M, additional

Published
2021
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19. JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1)

Author

Wiltshire, Andrew J., primary, Burke, Eleanor J., additional, Chadburn, Sarah E., additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Cox, Peter M., additional, Davies-Barnard, Taraka, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Harper, Anna B., additional, Liddicoat, Spencer, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2021
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20. Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1

Author

O'Connor, Fiona M., primary, Abraham, N. Luke, additional, Dalvi, Mohit, additional, Folberth, Gerd A., additional, Griffiths, Paul T., additional, Hardacre, Catherine, additional, Johnson, Ben T., additional, Kahana, Ron, additional, Keeble, James, additional, Kim, Byeonghyeon, additional, Morgenstern, Olaf, additional, Mulcahy, Jane P., additional, Richardson, Mark, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Seo, Jeongbyn, additional, Shim, Sungbo, additional, Teixeira, João C., additional, Turnock, Steven T., additional, Williams, Jonny, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Woodward, Stephanie, additional, and Zeng, Guang, additional

Published
2021
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21. Global Carbon Budget 2020

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, primary, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Jones, Matthew W., additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Olsen, Are, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Le Quéré, Corinne, additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Jackson, Robert B., additional, Alin, Simone, additional, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Arora, Vivek, additional, Bates, Nicholas R., additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Benoit-Cattin, Alice, additional, Bittig, Henry C., additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Bultan, Selma, additional, Chandra, Naveen, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Evans, Wiley, additional, Florentie, Liesbeth, additional, Forster, Piers M., additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Gehlen, Marion, additional, Gilfillan, Dennis, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Gregor, Luke, additional, Gruber, Nicolas, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Hartung, Kerstin, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Joetzjer, Emilie, additional, Kadono, Koji, additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kitidis, Vassilis, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lenton, Andrew, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Liu, Zhu, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Marland, Gregg, additional, Metzl, Nicolas, additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Niwa, Yosuke, additional, O'Brien, Kevin, additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Palmer, Paul I., additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Skjelvan, Ingunn, additional, Smith, Adam J. P., additional, Sutton, Adrienne J., additional, Tanhua, Toste, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, van der Werf, Guido, additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Wanninkhof, Rik, additional, Watson, Andrew J., additional, Willis, David, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Yuan, Wenping, additional, Yue, Xu, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2020
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22. Climate change impacts and adaptation

Author

Betts, Richard A., primary, Arnell, Nigel W., additional, Boorman, Penelope M., additional, Cornell, Sarah E., additional, House, Joanna I., additional, Kaye, Neil R., additional, McCarthy, Mark P., additional, McNeall, Douglas J., additional, Sanderson, Michael G., additional, and Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional

Published
2012
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25. JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial Carbon-Nitrogen Scheme (JULES vn5.1)

Author

Wiltshire, Andrew J., primary, Burke, Eleanor J., additional, Chadburn, Sarah E., additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Cox, Peter M., additional, Davies-Barnard, Taraka, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Harper, Anna B., additional, Liddicoat, Spencer, additional, Sitch, Stephen A., additional, and Zaehle, Sonke, additional

Published
2020
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28. Global Carbon Budget 2019

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, primary, Jones, Matthew W., additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Le Quéré, Corinne, additional, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Jackson, Robert B., additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Barbero, Leticia, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Buitenhuis, Erik, additional, Chandra, Naveen, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Currie, Kim I., additional, Feely, Richard A., additional, Gehlen, Marion, additional, Gilfillan, Dennis, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Gruber, Nicolas, additional, Gutekunst, Sören, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Hurtt, George, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Joetzjer, Emilie, additional, Kaplan, Jed O., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lauvset, Siv K., additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lenton, Andrew, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Marland, Gregg, additional, McGuire, Patrick C., additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Metzl, Nicolas, additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Neill, Craig, additional, Omar, Abdirahman M., additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Peregon, Anna, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Smith, Naomi, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2019
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30. Global carbon budget 2019

Author

Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Matthew W., O'Sullivan, Michael, Andrew, Robbie, Hauck, Judith, Peters, Glen Philip, Peters, Wouter, Pongratz, Julia, Sitch, Stephen, Le Quéré, Corinne, Bakker, Dorothée C.E., Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Jackson, Robert B., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bastos, Ana, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Becker, Meike, Bopp, Laurent, Buitenhuis, Erik, Chandra, Naveen, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Currie, Kim I., Feely, Richard A., Gehlen, Marion, Gilfillan, Dennis, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Goll, Daniel S., Gruber, Nicolas, Gutekunst, Sören, Harris, Ian, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Joetzjer, Emilie, Kaplan, Jed O., Kato, Etsushi, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Landschutzer, Peter, Lauvset, Siv Kari, Lefevre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Marland, Gregg, McGuire, Patrick C., Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E.M.S., Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, Neill, Craig, Omar, Abdirahman, Ono, Tsuneo, Peregon, Anna, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Resplandy, Laure, Robertson, Eddy, Rödenbeck, Christian, Séférian, Roland, Schwinger, Jörg, Smith, Naomi, Tans, Pieter P., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco N., van der Werf, Guido R., Wiltshire, Andrew J., and Zaehle, Sönke

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Published
2019

34. Published and corrected forecast monthly CO2 from A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño

Author

Betts, Richard A., Jones, Chris D., Jeff. R. Knight, Ralph. F. Keeling, John. J. Kennedy, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Andrew, Robbie M., and Luiz E. O. C. Aragao

Subjects
education, population characteristics, social sciences, health care economics and organizations
Abstract

Monthly mean CO2 concentrations (ppm) for 2016 in published and corrected forecast, and observations.

Published
2018
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36. Global Carbon Budget 2017

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan D., Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank J., Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Heuven, Steven M. A. C., Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sönke, Zhu, Dan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder] (CSD), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Climatic Research Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, and Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan] (HUST)

Subjects
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract

International audience; Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Published
2018

39. Global Carbon Budget 2018

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, primary, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Pickers, Penelope, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Barbero, Leticia, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Doney, Scott C., additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Goll, Daniel S., additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Hoffman, Forrest M., additional, Hoppema, Mario, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Johannesen, Truls, additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Keeling, Ralph F., additional, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Metzl, Nicolas, additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro, additional, Neill, Craig, additional, Olsen, Are, additional, Ono, Tsueno, additional, Patra, Prabir, additional, Peregon, Anna, additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, Pfeil, Benjamin, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Resplandy, Laure, additional, Robertson, Eddy, additional, Rocher, Matthias, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Schuster, Ute, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Skjelvan, Ingunn, additional, Steinhoff, Tobias, additional, Sutton, Adrienne, additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Wright, Rebecca, additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2018
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40. JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial Carbon-Nitrogen Scheme (JULES vn5.1).

Author

Wiltshire, Andrew J., Burke, Eleanor J., Chadburn, Sarah E., Jones, Chris D., Cox, Peter M., Davies-Barnard, Taraka, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Harper, Anna B., Liddicoat, Spencer, Sitch, Stephen A., and Zaehle, Sonke

Subjects
*CARBON cycle, *BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, *NITROGEN fixation, *ATMOSPHERIC nitrogen, *NITROGEN cycle, *ATMOSPHERIC carbon dioxide, *SOIL depth
Abstract

Understanding future changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle is important for reliable projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems. It is known that nitrogen could limit plants' response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and is therefore important to include in Earth System Models. Here we present the implementation of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the JULES land surface model (JULES-CN). Two versions are discussed - the one implemented within the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) which has a bulk soil biogeochemical model and a development version which resolves the soil biogeochemistry with depth. The nitrogen cycle is based on the existing carbon cycle in the model. It represents all the key terrestrial nitrogen processes in an efficient way. Biological fixation and nitrogen deposition are external inputs, and loss occurs via leaching and a bulk gas loss parameterisation. Nutrient limitation reduces carbon-use efficiency (CUE - ratio of net to gross primary productivity) and can slow soil decomposition. We show that ecosystem level limitation of net primary productivity by nitrogen is consistent with observational estimates and that simulated carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes are comparable to the limited available observations. The impact of N limitation is most pronounced in northern mid-latitudes. The introduction of a nitrogen cycle improves the representation of interannual variability of global net ecosystem exchange which was much too pronounced in the carbon cycle only versions of JULES (JULES-C). It also reduces the CUE and alters its response over the twentieth century and limits the CO2-fertilisation effect, such that the simulated current day land carbon sink is reduced by about 0.5 Pg C yr-1. The inclusion of a prognostic land nitrogen scheme marks a step forward in functionality and realism for the JULES and UKESM models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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41. Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED): a parsimonious approach to modelling vegetation dynamics in Earth System Models.

Author

Argles, Arthur P. K., Moore, Jonathan R., Huntingford, Chris, Wiltshire, Andrew J., Jones, Chris D., and Cox, Peter M.

Subjects
VEGETATION dynamics, PARSIMONIOUS models, DEMOGRAPHY, PROBABILITY density function, FOREST biomass
Abstract

A significant proportion of the uncertainty in climate projections arises from uncertainty in the representation of land carbon uptake. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) vary in their representations of regrowth and competition for resources, which results in differing responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate. More advanced cohort-based patch models are now becoming established in the latest DGVMs. These typically attempt to simulate the size-distribution of trees as a function of both tree-size (mass or trunk diameter) and age (time since disturbance). This approach can capture the overall impact of stochastic disturbance events on the forest structure and biomass, but at the cost of needing to update a probability density function in two-dimensions. Here we present the Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED), in which the pdf is collapsed on to the single dimension of tree mass. RED is designed to retain the ability of more complex cohort DGVMs to represent forest demography, while also being parameter sparse and analytically soluble. The population of each Plant Functional Type (PFT) is partitioned into mass classes with a fixed baseline mortality along with an assumed power-law scaling of growth-rate with mass . The analytical equilibrium solutions of RED allow the model to be calibrated against observed forest cover using a single parameter - the ratio of mortality to growth for a tree of a reference mass (μ0). We show that RED can thus be calibrated to the ESA LC_CCI (European Space Agency Land Cover Climate Change Initiative) coverage dataset for nine PFTs. Using Net Primary Productivity and litter outputs from the UK Earth System Model (UKESM), we are able to diagnose the spatially varying disturbance rates consistent with this observed vegetation map. The analytical form for RED circumnavigates the need to spin-up the numerical model, making it attractive for application in Earth System Models (ESMs). This is especially so given that the model is also highly parameter-sparse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2020
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42. Contrasting interannual atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> variabilities and their terrestrial mechanisms for two types of El Niños

Author

Wang, Jun, primary, Zeng, Ning, additional, Wang, Meirong, additional, Jiang, Fei, additional, Chen, Jingming, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Jiang, Ziqiang, additional, Ju, Weimin, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Nabel, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Wang, Hengmao, additional, and Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional

Published
2018
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44. Contrasting behaviors of the atmospheric CO2 interannual variability during two types of El Niños

Author

Wang, Jun, primary, Zeng, Ning, additional, Wang, Meirong, additional, Jiang, Fei, additional, Chen, Jingming, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Jiang, Ziqiang, additional, Ju, Weimin, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Nabel, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Wang, Hengmao, additional, and Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional

Published
2018
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45. Supplementary material to "Contrasting behaviors of the atmospheric CO2 interannual variability during two types of El Niños"

Author

Wang, Jun, primary, Zeng, Ning, additional, Wang, Meirong, additional, Jiang, Fei, additional, Chen, Jingming, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Jiang, Ziqiang, additional, Ju, Weimin, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Nabel, Julia, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Wang, Hengmao, additional, and Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional

Published
2018
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47. Global Carbon Budget 2017

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, primary, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Manning, Andrew C., additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Jackson, Robert B., additional, Boden, Thomas A., additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Andrews, Oliver D., additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., additional, Barbero, Leticia, additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Betts, Richard A., additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Cosca, Catherine E., additional, Cross, Jessica, additional, Currie, Kim, additional, Gasser, Thomas, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Hunt, Christopher W., additional, Hurtt, George, additional, Ilyina, Tatiana, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Kautz, Markus, additional, Keeling, Ralph F., additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Körtzinger, Arne, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lenton, Andrew, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lima, Ivan, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Metzl, Nicolas, additional, Millero, Frank, additional, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, additional, Nojiri, Yukihiro, additional, Padín, X. Antoni, additional, Peregon, Anna, additional, Pfeil, Benjamin, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rehder, Gregor, additional, Reimer, Janet, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Skjelvan, Ingunn, additional, Stocker, Benjamin D., additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, van Heuven, Steven, additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Vuichard, Nicolas, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Watson, Andrew J., additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, Zaehle, Sönke, additional, and Zhu, Dan, additional

Published
2017
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48. Global Carbon Budget 2016

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, primary, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Canadell, Josep G., additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Manning, Andrew C., additional, Boden, Thomas A., additional, Tans, Pieter P., additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Keeling, Ralph F., additional, Alin, Simone, additional, Andrews, Oliver D., additional, Anthoni, Peter, additional, Barbero, Leticia, additional, Bopp, Laurent, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Chini, Louise P., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Currie, Kim, additional, Delire, Christine, additional, Doney, Scott C., additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Gkritzalis, Thanos, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Hauck, Judith, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Hoppema, Mario, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Jain, Atul K., additional, Kato, Etsushi, additional, Körtzinger, Arne, additional, Landschützer, Peter, additional, Lefèvre, Nathalie, additional, Lenton, Andrew, additional, Lienert, Sebastian, additional, Lombardozzi, Danica, additional, Melton, Joe R., additional, Metzl, Nicolas, additional, Millero, Frank, additional, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., additional, Munro, David R., additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, additional, O'Brien, Kevin, additional, Olsen, Are, additional, Omar, Abdirahman M., additional, Ono, Tsuneo, additional, Pierrot, Denis, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Rödenbeck, Christian, additional, Salisbury, Joe, additional, Schuster, Ute, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Skjelvan, Ingunn, additional, Stocker, Benjamin D., additional, Sutton, Adrienne J., additional, Takahashi, Taro, additional, Tian, Hanqin, additional, Tilbrook, Bronte, additional, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, van der Werf, Guido R., additional, Viovy, Nicolas, additional, Walker, Anthony P., additional, Wiltshire, Andrew J., additional, and Zaehle, Sönke, additional

Published
2016
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49. JULES-GL7: The Global Land Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulation version 7.0.

Author

Wiltshire, Andrew J., Duran Rojas, Carolina, Edwards, John, Gedney, Nicola, Harper, Anna B., Hartley, Andy, Hendry, Maggie, Robertson, Eddy, and Smout-Day, Kerry

Subjects
*LAND use, *REAL estate development, *ECOLOGY
Abstract

We present the latest global land configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model as used in the latest international coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6). The configuration is defined by the combination of switches, parameter values and ancillary data, which we provide alongside a set of historical forcing data that defines the experimental setup. In addition, we provide a standardised modelling system that runs on the NERC JASMIN cluster accessible to all with links to JULES. This is provided so that users can test and evaluate their own science against the standard configuration to promote community engagement in the development of land surface modelling capability through JULES. It is intended that JULES configurations should be independent of the underlying code base and thus they will be available at the latest release of the JULES code. This means that different code releases will produce scientifically comparable results for a given configuration version. Versioning is therefore determined by the configuration as opposed to the underlying code base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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50. A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño.

Author

Betts, Richard A., Jones, Chris D., Knight, Jeff. R., Keeling, Ralph. F., Kennedy, John. J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Andrew, Robbie M., and Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.

Subjects
WALKER circulation, CLIMATOLOGY, OCEAN temperature, EL Nino, CARBON dioxide
Abstract

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15±0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/ 1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/ 2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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