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Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich1, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats2, and contribute to the health3, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities4. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these findings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specific environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects affect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefits and trade-offs at national and international scales. We find that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifies countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing these objectives.

Non-negative tensor factorization has been shown a practical solution to automatically discover phenotypes from the electronic health records (EHR) with minimal human supervision. Such methods generally require an input tensor describing the inter-modal interactions to be pre-established; however, the correspondence between different modalities (e.g., correspondence between medications and diagnoses) can often be missing in practice. Although heuristic methods can be applied to estimate them, they inevitably introduce errors, and leads to sub-optimal phenotype quality. This is particularly important for patients with complex health conditions (e.g., in critical care) as multiple diagnoses and medications are simultaneously present in the records. To alleviate this problem and discover phenotypes from EHR with unobserved inter-modal correspondence, we propose the collective hidden interaction tensor factorization (cHITF) to infer the correspondence between multiple modalities jointly with the phenotype discovery. We assume that the observed matrix for each modality is marginalization of the unobserved inter-modal correspondence, which are reconstructed by maximizing the likelihood of the observed matrices. Extensive experiments conducted on the real-world MIMIC-III dataset demonstrate that cHITF effectively infers clinically meaningful inter-modal correspondence, discovers phenotypes that are more clinically relevant and diverse, and achieves better predictive performance compared with a number of state-of-the-art computational phenotyping models., Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering (TKDE)

Climate change is altering the distribution and composition of marine fish populations globally, which presents substantial risks to the social and economic well-being of humanity. While deriving long-term climatic baselines is an essential step for detecting and attributing the magnitude of climate change and its impacts, these baselines tend to be limited to historical datasets and palaeoecological sediment records. Here, we develop a method for estimating the 'ancient Mean Temperature of the Catch' (aMTC) using Indigenous fisheries catch records from two archaeological sites in the northeast Pacific. Despite different catch compositions, we observe an increase in aMTC over a 5,000-year period at two contemporaneously occupied archaeological sites in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We document cooler catches from 5,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP and comparatively warmer catches from 1,800 to 250 cal yr BP. These warmer temperatures are broadly consistent with palaeoceanographic sea surface temperature proxies from British Columbia and Alaska. Because this method requires converting measures of fish bones into estimates of fish size structure, abundance, biomass, and finally aMTC, opportunities exist to account for both variation and uncertainty at every step. Nevertheless, given that preindustrial fisheries data are ubiquitous in coastal archaeological sites, this method has the potential to be applied globally to broaden the temporal and geographic scale of ocean temperature baselines.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10641-022-01243-7.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

The ocean has recently taken centre stage in the global geopolitical landscape. Despite rising challenges to the effectiveness of multilateralism, attention to ocean issues appears as an opportunity to co-create pathways to ocean sustainability at multiple levels. The ocean science community, however, is not sufficiently well organised to advance these pathways and provide policy input. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services demonstrate how knowledge consensus and integration have been instrumental in charting global pathways and eliciting commitments to address, respectively, climate change and biodiversity loss. An equally impactful global platform with a thematic focus on ocean sustainability is needed. Here we introduce the International Panel for Ocean Sustainability (IPOS) as a coordinating mechanism to integrate knowledge systems to forge a bridge across ocean science-policy divides collectively. The IPOS will enrich the global policy debate in the Ocean Decade and support a shift toward ocean sustainability.

Abstract Fisheries resources in Hong Kong have been overexploited since the 1970s due to intensive bottom trawling and other fishing activities that have depleted stocks and destroyed marine habitat. To rehabilitate depleted fisheries resources, a permanent ban on trawling in Hong Kong territorial waters came into force on December 31, 2012. In order to determine whether the trawl facilitated recovery of fish communities, trawl surveys were conducted at two sites in each of the eastern, southern and western (estuarine) coastal waters of Hong Kong before and three years after the trawl ban. A total of 315 species and 86 families of fishes in nine feeding groups were encountered during the surveys. Mean trophic level of the fish community, abundance and biomass of total fishes and of predatory fishes increased in eastern and western waters after the ban, but no changes or declines in these metrics were observed in southern waters. Although initial recovery in fish community were observed in eastern and western waters, anthropogenic disturbances might hinder the recovery process, including a large-scale reclamation for construction of coastal infrastructures in the west, illegal trawling, and expansion of non-trawling fishing efforts in the southern and eastern waters. Longer term monitoring is needed to evaluate the effects of the trawl ban, and determine whether recovery in the southern waters will continue to be constrained by the anthropogenic disturbances. Graphic abstract

Aquatic foods from marine and freshwater systems are critical to the nutrition, health, livelihoods, economies and cultures of billions of people worldwide, but climate-related hazards may compromise their ability to provide these benefits. Here, we estimate national-level aquatic food system climate risk using an integrative food systems approach that connects climate hazards impacting marine and freshwater capture fisheries and aquaculture to their contributions to sustainable food system outcomes. We show that without mitigation, climate hazards pose high risks to nutritional, social, economic and environmental outcomes worldwide—especially for wild-capture fisheries in Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Small Island Developing States. For countries projected to experience compound climate risks, reducing societal vulnerabilities can lower climate risk by margins similar to meeting Paris Agreement mitigation targets. System-level interventions addressing dimensions such as governance, gender equity and poverty are needed to enhance aquatic and terrestrial food system resilience and provide investments with large co-benefits towards meeting the Sustainable Development Goals. The nutritional, economic and livelihood contributions provided by aquatic food systems are threatened by climate change. Building climate resilience requires systemic interventions that reduce social vulnerabilities.

Conservation approaches to social-ecological systems have largely been informed by a framing of preserving nature for its instrumental societal benefits, often ignoring the complex relationship of humans and nature and how climate change might impact these. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) was developed by the Task Force on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services as a heuristic approach that appreciates the diverse positive values of nature and its contribution to people. In this overview, we convene a group of experts to discuss the NFF as a tool to inform management in social-ecological systems facing climate change. We focus on three illustrative case studies from the global south across a range of climate change impacts at different ecological levels. We find that the NFF can facilitate the identification of trade-offs between alternative climate adaptation pathways based on different perspectives on the values of nature they emphasize. However, we also identify challenges in adopting the NFF, including how outputs can be translated into modeling frameworks. We conclude that using the NFF to unpack diverse management options under climate change is useful, but that there are still gaps where more work needs to be done to make it fully operational. A key conclusion is that a range of multiple perspectives of people’s values on nature could result in adaptive decision-making and policy that is resilient in responding to climate change impacts in social-ecological systems.

The future of the global ocean economy is currently envisioned as advancing towards a ‘blue economy’—socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and economically viable ocean industries1,2. However, tensions exist within sustainable development approaches, arising from differing perspectives framed around natural capital or social equity. Here we show that there are stark differences in outlook on the capacity for establishing a blue economy, and on its potential outcomes, when social conditions and governance capacity—not just resource availability—are considered, and we highlight limits to establishing multiple overlapping industries. This is reflected by an analysis using a fuzzy logic model to integrate indicators from multiple disciplines and to evaluate their current capacity to contribute to establishing equitable, sustainable and viable ocean sectors consistent with a blue economy approach. We find that the key differences in the capacity of regions to achieve a blue economy are not due to available natural resources, but include factors such as national stability, corruption and infrastructure, which can be improved through targeted investments and cross-scale cooperation. Knowledge gaps can be addressed by integrating historical natural and social science information on the drivers and outcomes of resource use and management, thus identifying equitable pathways to establishing or transforming ocean sectors1,3,4. Our results suggest that policymakers must engage researchers and stakeholders to promote evidence-based, collaborative planning that ensures that sectors are chosen carefully, that local benefits are prioritized, and that the blue economy delivers on its social, environmental and economic goals. The capacity to create an equitable and sustainable ‘blue economy’ from ocean resources will be determined by addressing social conditions, governance and infrastructure, not just resource availability, as shown by a fuzzy logic model incorporating multidisciplinary criteria.

The ocean contains unique biodiversity, provides valuable food resources and is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective tool for restoring ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services1,2, but at present only 2.7% of the ocean is highly protected3. This low level of ocean protection is due largely to conflicts with fisheries and other extractive uses. To address this issue, here we developed a conservation planning framework to prioritize highly protected MPAs in places that would result in multiple benefits today and in the future. We find that a substantial increase in ocean protection could have triple benefits, by protecting biodiversity, boosting the yield of fisheries and securing marine carbon stocks that are at risk from human activities. Our results show that most coastal nations contain priority areas that can contribute substantially to achieving these three objectives of biodiversity protection, food provision and carbon storage. A globally coordinated effort could be nearly twice as efficient as uncoordinated, national-level conservation planning. Our flexible prioritization framework could help to inform both national marine spatial plans4 and global targets for marine conservation, food security and climate action. Using a globally coordinated strategic conservation framework to plan an increase in ocean protection through marine protected areas can yield benefits for biodiversity, food provisioning and carbon storage.

Fishery resources are threatened by environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures, particularly in coastal ecosystems. It is crucial to understand the changes of fish communities and their responses to environmental changes and human disturbances to formulate rational fisheries and ecosystem-based management. The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) is a typical sub-tropic coastal ecosystem located in the center of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the northern South China Sea. The demersal fish in the PRE is traditionally targeted as commercial fishing and severely impacted by overexploitation and hypoxia in the last few decades. In this study, we analyze the fish survey data during the period of 2020~2021 using multivariate statistics to investigate the impacts of human disturbances on the species and functional dynamics of the demersal fish community in the PRE. The results reveal that dissolved oxygen and temperature have significant correlations with the functional traits of the demersal fish community. The impacts of hypoxia on the demersal fish vary with species and locations. We found that the mean functional redundancy of the demersal fish community in the PRE was high across three surveys, but the functional diversity was low in this region. The abundance and richness of the demersal fish community increased during the summer fishing moratorium in the South China Sea in 2021, but the functional diversity did not increase significantly. We conclude that the high functional redundancy in the PRE might not be sufficient to buffer against environmental disturbances because of its low functional diversity. Our study highlights the complicated interactions between the demersal fish community and disturbances in the PRE. Understanding the traits structure and functional diversity of the fish community can help elucidate the factors determining the dynamic responses of the fish community to disturbances.

High levels of methylmercury (MeHg) have been reported in Arctic marine biota, posing health risks to wildlife and human beings. Although MeHg concentrations of some Arctic species have been monitored for decades, the key environmental and ecological factors driving temporal trends of MeHg are largely unclear. We develop an ecosystem-based MeHg bioaccumulation model for the Beaufort Sea shelf (BSS) using the Ecotracer module of Ecopath with Ecosim, and apply the model to explore how MeHg toxicokinetics and food web trophodynamics affect bioaccumulation in the BSS food web. We show that a food web model with complex trophodynamics and relatively simple MeHg model parametrization can capture the observed biomagnification pattern of the BSS. While both benthic and pelagic production are important for transferring MeHg to fish and marine mammals, simulations suggest that benthic organisms are primarily responsible for driving the high trophic magnification factor in the BSS. We illustrate ways of combining empirical observations and modelling experiments to generate hypotheses about factors affecting food web bioaccumulation, including the MeHg elimination rate, trophodynamics, and species migration behavior. The results indicate that population dynamics rather than MeHg elimination may determine population-wide concentrations for fish and lower trophic level organisms, and cause large differences in concentrations between species at similar trophic levels. This research presents a new tool and lays the groundwork for future research to assess the pathways of global environmental changes in MeHg bioaccumulation in Arctic ecosystems in the past and the future.

Graphical abstract, Metagenomic sequencing provides a culture-independent avenue to investigate the complex microbial communities by constructing metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs). A MAG represents a microbial genome by a group of sequences from genome assembly with similar characteristics. It enables us to identify novel species and understand their potential functions in a dynamic ecosystem. Many computational tools have been developed to construct and annotate MAGs from metagenomic sequencing, however, there is a prominent gap to comprehensively introduce their background and practical performance. In this paper, we have thoroughly investigated the computational tools designed for both upstream and downstream analyses, including metagenome assembly, metagenome binning, gene prediction, functional annotation, taxonomic classification, and profiling. We have categorized the commonly used tools into unique groups based on their functional background and introduced the underlying core algorithms and associated information to demonstrate a comparative outlook. Furthermore, we have emphasized the computational requisition and offered guidance to the users to select the most efficient tools. Finally, we have indicated current limitations, potential solutions, and future perspectives for further improving the tools of MAG construction and annotation. We believe that our work provides a consolidated resource for the current stage of MAG studies and shed light on the future development of more effective MAG analysis tools on metagenomic sequencing.

Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.

Users from all over the world increasingly adopt social media for newsgathering, especially during breaking news. Breaking news is an unexpected event that is currently developing. Early stages of breaking news are usually associated with lots of unverified information, i.e., rumors. Efficiently detecting and acting upon rumors in a timely fashion is of high importance to minimize their harmful effects. Yet, not all rumors have the potential to spread in social media. High-engaging rumors are those written in a manner that ensures achievement of the highest prevalence among the recipients. They are difficult to detect, spread very fast, and can cause serious damage to society. In this article, we propose a new multi-task Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) attention-based neural network architecture to jointly learn the two tasks of breaking news rumors detection and breaking news rumors popularity prediction in social media. The proposed model learns the salient semantic similarities among important features for detecting high-engaging breaking news rumors and separates them from the rest of the input text. Extensive experiments on five real-life datasets of breaking news suggest that our proposed model outperforms all baselines and is capable of detecting breaking news rumors and predicting their future popularity with high accuracy.

Crustaceans were among the most valuable fishery resources in Hong Kong. However, the unrestricted and intensive use of different fishing gears, especially bottom trawling, has led to the depletion of commercially important crustaceans in Hong Kong since the 1980s. This study investigated whether commercial crustaceans recovered after the implementation of a permanent Hong Kong-wide trawl ban that began on December 31, 2012. Standardized field surveys were conducted using a commercial shrimp trawler at two sites in eastern and western waters of Hong Kong before (2004) and after the trawl ban (2013–2014 and 2015–2016) and two sites in southern waters after the trawl ban. Diversity, mean size, abundance, biomass and level of disturbance of commercial crustaceans from the three periods were investigated. The eastern waters exhibited an increased diversity of crustacean assemblages in Inner Tolo, and a higher abundance and biomass of crabs were detected in Outer Tolo after the trawl ban. Reduced disturbance, higher diversity in crustacean assemblages and greater abundance and biomass of predatory crabs were observed after the trawl ban in the outer estuary of western waters, and increased abundance and biomass of shrimp were detected in the inner estuary of western waters. No temporal or negative changes were detected in the southeast and southern waters of Lamma Island. The various responses of crustacean assemblages in Hong Kong waters revealed the critical role of complex interactions among multiple stresses, such as ongoing reclamation works, illegal trawling activities and increased fishing efforts using other (legal) fishing methods.

Clinical time series imputation is recognized as an essential task in clinical data analytics. Most models rely either on strong assumptions regarding the underlying data-generation process or on preservation of only local properties without effective consideration of global dependencies. To advance the state of the art in clinical time series imputation, we participated in the 2019 ICHI Data Analytics Challenge on Missing Data Imputation (DACMI). In this paper, we present our proposed model: Context-Aware Time Series Imputation (CATSI), a novel framework based on a bidirectional LSTM in which patients' health states are explicitly captured by learning a "global context vector" from the entire clinical time series. The imputations are then produced with reference to the global context vector. We also incorporate a cross-feature imputation component to explore the complex feature correlations. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that CATSI obtains a normalized root mean square deviation (nRMSD) of 0.1998, which is 10.6% better than that of state-of-the-art models. Further experiments on consecutive missing datasets also illustrate the effectiveness of incorporating the global context in the generation of accurate imputations.

Regulatory boundaries and species distributions often do not align. This is especially the case for marine species crossing multiple Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Such movements represent a challenge for fisheries management, as policies tend to focus at the national level, yet international collaborations are needed to maximize long-term ecological, social and economic benefits of shared marine species. Here, we combined species distributions and the spatial delineation of EEZs at the global level to identify the number of commercially exploited marine species that are shared between neighboring nations. We found that 67% of the species analyzed are transboundary (n = 633). Between 2005 and 2014, fisheries targeting these species within global-EEZs caught on average 48 million tonnes per year, equivalent to an average of USD 77 billion in annual fishing revenue. For select countries, over 90% of their catch and economic benefits were attributable to a few shared resources. Our analysis suggests that catches from transboundary species are declining more than those from non-transboundary species. Our study has direct implications for managing fisheries targeting transboundary species, highlighting the need for strengthened effective and equitable international cooperation.

Context Many in the rapidly growing Chinese-American population are non-English-speaking and medically underserved, and few engage in advance care planning (ACP). Evaluating culturally-determined factors that may inhibit ACP can inform programs designed to increase ACP engagement. Objectives To describe attitudes and beliefs concerning ACP in older, non-English-speaking Chinese Americans in a medically-underserved urban region. Methods Patients were consecutively recruited from a primary care practice in New York City to participate in a cross-sectional survey. Attitudes and beliefs were measured using an ACP Survey Tool and the validated Traditional Chinese Death Beliefs measure. Exploratory analyses evaluated associations between these two measures and between each measure and sociodemographics, primary dialect, acculturation (using the Suinn-Lew Asian Self Identity Acculturation Scale), and health status (using the Short Form-8 Health Survey). Results Patients (n = 179) were 68.2 years on average; 55.9% were women, and 81.0% were non-English speaking (42.8% Cantonese, 15.2% Mandarin, 19.3% Toisanese, and 19.3% Fuzhounese). Most had low acculturation (mean 1.7/5.0) and highly-rated physical and mental health (mean 70.1/100 and 81.5/100, respectively). Few patients (15.1%) had an advance directive and 56.8% were unfamiliar with any type; 74.4% were willing to complete one in the future. Thirty-two percent "agreed" that "talking about death in the presence of a dying person would accelerate death". The analyses revealed no significant associations. Conclusion These Chinese-American older adults had low acculturation and very limited knowledge of, or engagement in, ACP. Factors that may predict culturally-determined attitudes and beliefs about ACP were not identified. Further research can inform efforts to improve ACP engagement in this population.

Tropical fisheries substantially contribute to the well-being of societies in both the tropics and the extratropics, the latter through ‘telecoupling’ — linkages between distant human–natural systems. Tropical marine habitats and fish stocks, however, are vulnerable to the physical and biogeochemical oceanic changes associated with rising greenhouse gases. These changes to fish stocks, and subsequent impacts on fish production, have substantial implications for the UN Sustainable Development Goals. In this Review, we synthesize the effects of climate change on tropical marine fisheries, highlighting the socio-economic impacts to both tropical and extratropical nations, and discuss potential adaptation measures. Driven by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and sea-level rise, the maximum catch potential of tropical fish stocks in some tropical exclusive economic zones is projected to decline by up to 40% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, relative to the 2000s. Climate-driven reductions in fisheries production and alterations in fish-species composition will subsequently increase the vulnerability of tropical countries with limited adaptive capacity. Thus, given the billions of people dependent on tropical marine fisheries in some capacity, there is a clear need to account for the effects of climate change on these resources and identify practical adaptations when building climate-resilient sustainable-development pathways. Stressors arising from anthropogenic climate change threaten tropical fisheries and, in turn, those extratropical nations reliant on them. This Review discusses the impact of climate change on tropical fish stocks and catch potential, the corresponding telecoupling and subsequent adaptation measures.