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Study objective This study aimed to develop and validate 2 machine learning models that use historical and current-visit patient data from electronic health records to predict the probability of patient admission to either an inpatient unit or ICU at each hour (up to 24 hours) of an emergency department (ED) encounter. The secondary goal was to provide a framework for the operational implementation of these machine learning models. Methods Data were curated from 468,167 adult patient encounters in 3 EDs (1 academic and 2 community-based EDs) of a large academic health system from August 1, 2015, to October 31, 2018. The models were validated using encounter data from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2019. An operational user dashboard was developed, and the models were run on real-time encounter data. Results For the intermediate admission model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.873 and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.636. For the ICU admission model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.951 and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.461. The models had similar performance in both the academic- and community-based settings as well as across the 2019 and real-time encounter data. Conclusion Machine learning models were developed to accurately make predictions regarding the probability of inpatient or ICU admission throughout the entire duration of a patient’s encounter in ED and not just at the time of triage. These models remained accurate for a patient cohort beyond the time period of the initial training data and were integrated to run on live electronic health record data, with similar performance.

Background Proposed changes in health care will place an increasing burden on surgeons to care for patients more efficiently to minimize cost. We reviewed costs surrounding video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomies to see where changes could be made to ensure maximum value. Methods We queried The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database for all VATS lobectomies performed for lung cancer from January 2011 to December 2013. Clinical data were linked with hospital financial data to determine hospital expenditures for each patient. Results In all, 263 VATS lobectomies were included. Mean operating room time was 236 minutes, and median length of stay was 4 days. Mean hospital cost was $19,769. The majority of cost (58%) was attributed to operating room and floor costs (length of stay), and the majority of operating room costs were secondary to room rate and staplers. A total of 77 complications, as defined by STS, occurred in the cohort; 41 patients had only one complication, 11 patients had two complications, and 6 patients had three or more complications. The occurrence of one complication was associated with a net loss of $496 whereas two complications in a patient led to a $3,882 net loss. Overall, complications were independently correlated with significant cost increases. Conclusions Our study shows that the most significant costs associated with VATS lobectomies relate to operating room time, stapler use, floor charges, and cost associated with complications. Cost-reducing strategies will need to concentrate on optimizing operating room times and reducing length of stay while simultaneously minimizing complications.

Quality-cost diagrams have been used previously to assess interventions and their cost-effectiveness. This study explores the use of risk-adjusted quality-cost diagrams to compare the value provided by surgeons by presenting cost and outcomes simultaneously. Colectomy cases from a single institution captured in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were linked to hospital cost-accounting data to determine costs per encounter. Risk adjustment models were developed and observed average cost and complication rates per surgeon were compared to expected cost and complication rates using the diagrams. Surgeons were surveyed to determine if the diagrams could provide information that would result in practice adjustment. Of 55 surgeons surveyed on the utility of the diagrams, 92% of respondents believed the diagrams were useful. The diagrams seemed intuitive to interpret, and making risk-adjusted comparisons accounted for patient differences in the evaluation.

Backgorund and objectives Melanoma is steadily increasing over the past decade. Recent studies confirmed a link between tanning bed use and melanoma. We sought to determine the prevalence and frequency of tanning bed among young patients with melanoma. Methods We retrospectively analyzed tanning bed use among young melanoma patients compared to controls selected from the hospital medical records. A telephone survey investigated family history of melanoma or skin cancer, hair color, eye color, skin type, tanning bed use, and patient awareness of dangers of tanning bed use. Results A total of 601 melanoma cases were identified; 265 (44%) completed the telephone survey as did 195 (31%) controls. Of these 460 subjects, 260 were female. Females were 3.0 times more likely to have used a tanning bed. Melanoma patients had natural light color hair, blue–green eyes, and 2.0 times more likely to use a tanning bed than controls. Among the tanning bed users, 90% were aware of danger of tanning bed. Conclusions Our study found that tanning beds were more likely to be used by young women, the majority of whom are aware of the associated risks. Eliminating the use of tanning beds should be considered to decrease the incidence of melanoma. J. Surg. Oncol. 2015 111:183–187. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Background: In comparison with open distal pancreatectomy (ODP), laparoscopic distal pancreatec- tomy (LDP) is associated with fewer complications and shorter hospital stays, but comparative cost data for the two approaches are limited. Methods: Records of all distal pancreatectomies carried out from January 2009 to June 2013 were reviewed and stratified according to operative complexity. Patient factors and outcomes were recorded. Total variable costs (TVCs) were tabulated for each patient, and stratified by category (e.g. 'floor', 'operating room' (OR), 'radiology'). Costs for index admissions and 30-day readmissions were compared between LDP and ODP groups. Results: Of 153 procedures, 115 (70 LDP, 45 ODP) were selected for analysis. The TVC of the index admission was US$3420 less per patient in the LDP group (US$10 480 versus US$13 900; P = 0.06). Although OR costs were significantly greater in the LDP cohort (US$5756 versus US$4900; P = 0.02), the shorter average hospitalization in the LDP group (5.2 days versus 7.7 days; P = 0.01) resulted in a lower overall cost. The total cost of index hospitalization combined with readmission was significantly lower in the LDP cohort (US$11 106 versus US$14 803; P = 0.05). Conclusions: In appropriately selected patients, LDP is more cost-effective than ODP. The increased OR cost associated with LDP is offset by the shorter hospitalization. These data clarify targets for further cost reductions.

The study evaluates the readmission diagnoses after vascular surgical interventions and the associated hospital costs.Patients readmitted after undergoing carotid artery stenting (CAS), carotid endarterectomy (CEA), infrarenal endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR), open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (OAAA), suprainguinal revascularization (SUPRA), or infrainguinal revascularization (INFRA) between January 1, 2008 and October 20, 2013 at a single academic institution were retrospectively identified. Demographic, preoperative, and postoperative event variables were obtained by chart review. The diagnoses and the costs of the readmission event were obtained by chart review and from hospital financial data. Readmission indications were grouped as unrelated or planned readmissions, procedure-specific complications, wound complications, cardiac causes, and other. Univariate analyses of categorical variables were performed with χA total of 1,170 patient records were identified. Thirty-day readmission occurred in 112 patients (9.6%). The readmission rate was significantly different between groups: 4.5% in CAS (n = 8/177), 8.5% in CEA (21/246), 5.8% in EVAR (18/312), 11.4% in OAAA (4/35), 15.6% in INFRA (33/212), 13.5% in SUPRA (24/178), and 40% in combined SUPRA and INFRA (4/10) (P 0.0001). Readmissions were unrelated or planned in 19.6% of patients. Wound complications were the most common readmission diagnoses (36.6%, 41/112).There was a difference in the distribution of readmission indications among procedure groups, with wound complications being predominant in INFRA and SUPRA groups (60.6% and 58.3%, respectively), and cardiac events predominantly in EVAR patients (42%) (P 0.001). In univariable analysis of predictors of readmission, significant preoperative factors were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal insufficiency, and lower hematocrit. Significant postoperative predictors included any postoperative complication, number of complications, increased length of stay, wound complications, postoperative infections, blood transfusion, and reoperation. The median hospital cost for readmission for wound complications was 29,723 USD (interquartile range 23,841-36,878), and for cardiac complications was 39,784 USD (26,305-46,918). The median cost of readmission for bypass graft occlusion was 33,366 USD (20,530-43,170). The median length of stay also differed depending on the readmission diagnosis and was highest for bypass graft occlusion (8.5 days).Readmissions after vascular procedures are associated with high cost and hospital bed utilization. Wound complications continue to be the dominant readmission etiology. The characterization of these costs and risk factors in this study can allow for resource allocation to minimize preventable related readmissions. A significant proportion of readmissions after vascular interventions are planned or unrelated, which should be taken into consideration in metric benchmarking and performance comparisons.

Melanoma is steadily increasing over the past decade. Recent studies confirmed a link between tanning bed use and melanoma. We sought to determine the prevalence and frequency of tanning bed among young patients with melanoma.We retrospectively analyzed tanning bed use among young melanoma patients compared to controls selected from the hospital medical records. A telephone survey investigated family history of melanoma or skin cancer, hair color, eye color, skin type, tanning bed use, and patient awareness of dangers of tanning bed use.A total of 601 melanoma cases were identified; 265 (44%) completed the telephone survey as did 195 (31%) controls. Of these 460 subjects, 260 were female. Females were 3.0 times more likely to have used a tanning bed. Melanoma patients had natural light color hair, blue-green eyes, and 2.0 times more likely to use a tanning bed than controls. Among the tanning bed users, 90% were aware of danger of tanning bed.Our study found that tanning beds were more likely to be used by young women, the majority of whom are aware of the associated risks. Eliminating the use of tanning beds should be considered to decrease the incidence of melanoma.

To determine the relationship between complications after 3 common general surgery procedures and per-episode hospital finances.With impending changes in health care reimbursement, maximizing the value of care delivered is paramount. Data on the relative clinical and financial impact of postoperative complications are necessary for directing surgical quality improvement efforts.We reviewed the medical records of patients enrolled in the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, hepatectomy, and colectomy at a single academic institution between September 2009 and August 2012. Clinical outcomes data were subsequently linked with hospital billing data to determine hospital finances associated with each episode. We describe the association between postoperative complications, hospital length of stay, and different financial metrics. Multivariable linear regression modeling tested linear association between postoperative outcomes and cost data.There was a positive association between the number of surgical complications, payments, length of stay, total charges, total costs, and contribution margin for the three procedures. Multivariable models indicated that complications were independently associated with total cost among the selected procedures. Payments increased with complications, offsetting increased costs.In the current fee-for-service environment, the financial incentives are misaligned with quality improvement efforts. As we move to a value-driven method of reimbursement, administrators and health care providers alike will need to focus on improving the quality of patient care while remaining conscious of the cost of care delivered. Reducing complications effectively improves value.

Despite increasing implementation of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), there are little data on its financial implications. We analyzed hospital cost and reimbursement data within the context of insurance provider type and postoperative complications. Clinicopathologic variables, hospital costs, and reimbursement for all patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC at a single institution from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed. A total of 64 patients underwent CRS/HIPEC. Median PCI score was 19, and average operative time was 550 min. Tumor histology included appendiceal (n = 40; 62 %), colorectal (n = 16; 25 %), goblet cell (n = 5; 8 %), and mesothelioma (n = 3; 5 %). Median length-of-stay was 13 days. Complications occurred in 42 patients (66 %), including 13 (20 %) with major (Clavien grade III–IV) complications. Payer mix included 42 private insurance and 22 Medicare/Medicaid. Financial data was available for 56 patients: average total hospital cost was $49,248 and reimbursement was $63,771, for a hospital profit of $14,523/patient. Despite similar costs between Medicare/Medicaid and private-insurance patients, Medicare/Medicaid reimbursed much less ($30,713 vs $80,747; p