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The purpose of this study is to determine whether there is a higher dislocation rate when postoperative hip precautions are not used for primary total hip arthroplasty (THA).A survey was conducted of the hip precautions used by orthopaedic departments in England performing elective primary THA. From the responses to the survey an interrupted time series analysis was performed using the hospital admissions data from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database during the period April 1, 2011 to December 31, 2019 and subsequent dislocations of these prostheses up to June 30, 2020. These were used to determine dislocations within 180 days of primary surgery and emergency readmissions within 30 days of discharge.Records were reviewed from 229,057 patients receiving primary, elective THA across 114 hospitals. In total, 1,807 (0.8%) dislocations were recorded within 180 days of surgery. There were 12,416 (5.4%) emergency readmissions within 30 days of surgery. Within hospitals where hip precautions were stopped, the proportion of patients having a dislocation was 0.8% both before and after stopping precautions, with a significant postintervention trend towards fewer dislocations (P.001). There was also a significant immediate change in median length of stay from 4 to 3 days (P.001) but no significant trend in the proportion of emergency readmissions within 30 days.There is no evidence of an increase in early dislocation or 30-day readmission rates after stopping traditional postoperative hip precautions in primary THA. Potential reductions in length of stay will reduce the risks associated with an extended hospital admission, improve service efficiency, and reduce costs.

As elective surgical services recover from the COVID-19 pandemic a movement towards day-case surgery may reduce waiting lists. However, evidence is needed to show that day-case surgery is safe for endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). The aim of this study was to investigate the safety of day-case ESS in England.Secondary analysis of administrative data.We extracted data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the 5 years from 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2019. Patients undergoing elective ESS procedures aged ≥17 years were included. Exclusion criteria included malignant neoplasm, complex systemic disease and trans-sphenoidal pituitary surgery. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days post-discharge. Multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to compare outcomes for those operated on as day-cases and those with an overnight stay after adjusting for demographic, frailty, comorbidity and procedural covariates.Data were available for 49 223 patients operated on across 129 NHS hospital trusts. In trusts operating on more than 50 patients in the study period, rates of day-case surgery varied from 20.6% to 100%. Nationally, rates of day-case surgery increased from 64.0% in the financial year 2014/2015 to 78.7% in 2018/2019. Day-case patients had lower rates of 30-day emergency readmission (odds ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.81). Outcomes for patients operated on in trusts with ≥80% day-case rates compared with patients operated on in trusts with50% rates of day-case surgery were similar.Our data support the view that ESS can safely be performed as day-case surgery in most cases, although it will not be suitable for all patients. There appears to be scope to increase rates of day-case ESS in some hospital trusts in England.

Background: People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) have higher rates of hospitalisation and healthcare utilisation compared to the general population. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant changes in admissions to hospital and access to healthcare. People with PD are some of the most vulnerable to such changes. There is no pre-existing data on the cause and duration of admission to hospital of people with PD during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To determine the cause, duration, and outcome of hospital admissions to Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust (NHCFT) for people with idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (IPD) in 2020. Methods: All people with IPD who had an emergency admission to NHCFT between 01/01/2020 and 31/12/2020 were identified. Demographic and disease characteristics, the number, duration, cause of admission and the location prior to admission were collected from an audit of medical notes. Results: 271 people with IPD had one or more emergency admissions to NHCFT between 01/01/2020 and 31/12/2020. There was a total of 453 emergency admissions, with a median duration of 5 (IQR 2-13) days. The most common causes of admission to hospital were PD-related motor dysfunction (includes falls with no other underlying cause or associated injury) and injury (includes falls with fracture), at 78 (17.2%) and 70 (15.5%) respectively. Conclusions: People with IPD had a short duration but high number of emergency admissions to hospital. Our chronological data on number of admissions shows a peak in admissions during August 2020. As a result of these findings and emerging data we suggest that individuals with PD deconditioned during 2020.

Musculoskeletal diseases (MSD) are a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability, and disproportionally affect low- and middle-income countries; however, there is a dearth of epidemiological data. Affected children often face increased morbidity, social isolation and economic hardship.To assess the spectrum and burden of paediatric MSD in children aged 5-18 years admitted to a major referral hospital in Tanzania.This was a retrospective cohort study of children aged 5-18 years admitted to Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) whose initial diagnosis was recognised as a musculoskeletal condition by the International Classification of Diseases-10 between 1 January and 31 December 2017.During 2017, 163 cases of confirmed paediatric MSD were admitted to KCMC, representing 21.2% of all admissions of children aged 5-18 years (The majority of cases of MSD were related to fractures, followed by osteo-articular infections, while recognised cases of rheumatic disease were rare. The study, although small, identified the sizeable burden and spectrum of paediatric MSD admitted to a hospital in Tanzania over a 12-month period and highlights the need for larger studies to inform the optimal allocation of health resources.CI: confidence interval; HIC: high-income countries; HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases 10; IQR: interquartile range; JIA: juvenile idiopathic arthritis; KCMC: Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre; LMIC: low- and middle-income countries; MSD: musculoskeletal diseases: NAI: non-accidental injury; NIHR: National Institute for Health Research; PAFLAR: Paediatric Society of the African League Against Rheumatism; RTA: road traffic accidents; SCD: sickle cell disease; SLE: systemic lupus erythematosus; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa.

Globally, 43 million people are living with HIV, 90% in developing countries. Increasing life expectancy with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) results in chronic complications, including HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) and eye diseases. HAND screening is currently challenging. Our aim was to evaluate clinical utility of retinopathy as a screening measure of HAND in older cART-treated individuals in Tanzania and feasibility of smartphone-based retinal screening in this low-resource setting. A cross-sectional systematic sample aged ≥ 50-years attending routine HIV follow-up in Tanzania were comprehensively assessed for HAND by American Academy of Neurology criteria and received ophthalmic assessment including smartphone-based retinal imaging. HAND and ophthalmic assessments were independent and blinded. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by AUROC curves. Of 129 individuals assessed, 69.8% were visually impaired. Thirteen had retinopathy. HAND prevalence was 66.7%. Retinopathy was significantly associated with HAND but HIV-disease factors (CD4, viral load) were not. Diagnostic accuracy of retinopathy for HAND was poor (AUROC 0.545-0.617) but specificity and positive predictive value were high. We conclude that ocular pathology and HAND appear highly prevalent in this low-resource setting. Although retinal screening cannot be used alone identify HAND, prioritization of individuals with abnormal retinal screening is a potential strategy in low-resource settings.

Objectives This paper aims to describe the prevalence and socio-economic associations with multimorbidity, by both self-report and clinical assessment/screening methods in community-dwelling older people living in rural Tanzania. Methods A randomised frailty-weighted sample of non-institutionalised adults aged ≥ 60 years underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment and in-depth assessment. The comprehensive geriatric assessment consisted of a history and focused clinical examination. The in-depth assessment included standardised questionnaires, screening tools and blood pressure measurement. The prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated for self-report and non-self-reported methods (clinician diagnosis, screening tools and direct measurement). Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more conditions. The socio-demographic associations with multimorbidity were investigated by multiple logistic regression. Results A sample of 235 adults participated in the study, selected from a screened sample of 1207. The median age was 74 years (range 60 to 110 inter-quartile range (IQR) 19) and 136 (57.8%) were women. Adjusting for frailty-weighting, the prevalence of self-reported multimorbidity was 26.1% (95% CI 16.7–35.4), and by clinical assessment/screening was 67.3% (95% CI 57.0–77.5). Adjusting for age, sex, education and frailty status, multimorbidity by self-report increased the odds of being financially dependent on others threefold (OR 3.3 [95% CI 1.4–7.8]), and of a household member reducing their paid employment nearly fourfold (OR 3.8. [95% CI 1.5–9.2]). Conclusions Multimorbidity is prevalent in this rural lower-income African setting and is associated with evidence of household financial strain. Multimorbidity prevalence is higher when not reliant on self-reported methods, revealing that many conditions are underdiagnosed and undertreated.

Purpose. Our aim was to provide a comprehensive account of COVID-19 nosocomial infections (NIs) in England and identify their characteristics and outcomes using machine learning. Methods. From the Hospital Episodes Statistics database, 374,244 adult hospital patients in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 and discharged between March 1st 2020 and March 31st 2021 were identified. A cohort of suspected COVID-19 NIs was identified using four empirical methods linked to hospital coding. A random forest classifier was designed to model the characteristics of these infections. Results. The model estimated a mean NI rate of 10.5%, with a peak close to 18% during the first wave, but much lower rates (7%) thereafter. NIs were highly correlated with longer lengths of stay, high trust capacity strain, greater age and a higher degree of patient frailty, and associated with higher mortality rates and more severe COVID-19 sequelae, including pneumonia, kidney disease and sepsis. Conclusions. Identification of the characteristics of patients who acquire NIs should help trusts to identify those most at risk. The evolution of the NI rate over time may reflect the impact of changes in hospital management practices and vaccination efforts. Variations in NI rates across trusts may partly reflect different data recording and coding practice.

BACKGROUND Older adults have worse outcomes following hospitalisation with COVID-19, but within this group there is substantial variation. Although frailty and comorbidity are key determinants of mortality, it is less clear which manifestations of frailty and comorbidity are associated with the worst outcomes. OBJECTIVE We aimed to identify the key comorbidities and domains of frailty that were associated with in-hospital mortality in older patients with COVID-19. METHODS This was a retrospective study that used the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative dataset from 1st March 2020 to 28th February 2021 for hospital patients in England aged 65 years and over. Frailty was assessed using the Dr Foster Global Frailty Scale (GFS) and comorbidity using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Descriptive statistics techniques were used to determine mortality rates according to the demographic, frailty and comorbidity profile of patients. Features were selected, pre-processed and inputted into a random forest classification algorithm to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS In total 215,831 patients were included. The frailty and comorbidity measures significantly improved the model’s ability to predict mortality in patients, when used alongside age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, discharge month and year, region, disease severity and hospital trust. The most important frailty items in the GFS were dementia/delirium, falls/fractures and pressure ulcers/weight loss. The most-important comorbidity items in the CCI were cancer, heart failure and renal disease. The best-performing model had a predictive accuracy of 82% as well as an area under the curve of 0.90 and the features included all the aforementioned covariates. CONCLUSIONS The physical manifestation of frailty and comorbidity, particularly a history of cognitive impairment and falls, may be useful in identification of patients who may need additional support during hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVES Depression is the commonest mental disorder in older adults worldwide, affecting 7% of the world's older population and accounting for 5.7% of years lived with disability among adults aged over 60 years. We conducted a secondary data analysis to determine the point prevalence, associated risk factors and treatment gap for DSM-IV depression among older adults in the Hai District, rural Tanzania. METHODS The primary data source was a cross-sectional two-stage community-based dementia study where older adults aged ≥70 years (n = 296) were fully-assessed for dementia and depression in the second stage. Age-adjusted prevalence of depression was determined based on the WHO standard population using the Direct Method. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed. RESULTS Of the 296 older adults assessed for depression, 48 were diagnosed with depression based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV criteria. The median (Inter Quartile Range; QR) age was 80 (75-88) years. Age-adjusted point prevalence of depression was 21.2% (95% CI: 16.6-21.9) and the treatment gap for depression was 100%. There was reduced odds of depression in older adults who rated their physical health as good or very good (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.22; 95%CI: 0.10-0.46; p

A minimum volume threshold of at least six procedures per annum per surgeon has been set in UK and European guidelines for adrenal surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate outcomes for adrenal surgery in England relative to annual surgeon and hospital trust volume.Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for England. A 6-year period (January 2013 to December 2018 inclusive) for all adult admissions for unilateral adrenal surgery was used. The primary outcome measure was an emergency readmission within 30 days of discharge following surgery. Procedures were categorized as open or minimally invasive surgery for analysis. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and potential confounders.Data for 4189 adrenalectomies were identified. Only one third of surgeons (who operated on just over a half of all patients) performed at least six procedures in the year prior to the index procedure. For open surgery, emergency readmission rates fell significantly from 15.2 to 6.4 per cent for surgeons and from 13.2 to 6.1 per cent for trusts between the lowest- and highest-volume categories. Significant, but less dramatic falls were also seen for minimally invasive surgery.A volume-outcome effect was identified for adrenal surgery in England. Minimum volume thresholds should be set, although these may need to be more ambitious than the current threshold if outcomes are to be optimized.Surgery for disease of the adrenal gland can be complex. In many cases the skill and experience of the surgeon and the wider surgical team is thought to be important in determining the success of the procedure. The relative rarity of adrenal surgery means that there is little evidence to support this view. This study looked at outcomes for all 4189 patients who underwent adrenal surgery in England over a 6-year period. There was evidence that outcomes were better for patents when the surgeon and hospital trust had performed a larger number of adrenal surgery procedures in the year prior to the procedure. This was, however, dependent on which patient outcomes were studied and the type of procedure. These findings will inform the ongoing debate as to whether adrenal surgery in England should only be performed in regional centres by experienced teams.Surgery for disease of the adrenal gland can be complex. In many cases the skill and experience of the surgeon and the wider surgical team is thought to be important in determining the success of the procedure. The relative rarity of adrenal surgery means that there is little evidence to support this view. This study looked at outcomes for all 4189 patients who underwent adrenal surgery in England over a 6-year period. There was evidence that outcomes were better for patents when the surgeon and hospital trust had performed a larger number of adrenal surgery procedures in the year prior to the procedure. This was, however, dependent on which patient outcomes were studied and the type of procedure. These findings will inform the ongoing debate as to whether adrenal surgery in England should only be performed in regional centres by experienced teams.

Objectives: The Getting It Right First Time programme was set up to reduce unwarranted variation in healthcare practice and outcomes in England. The aim of this study was to investigate early changes in practice in urology based on the recommendations made. Subjects and methods: Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database from January 2014 to December 2019. The dates of visits by members of the Getting It Right First Time team were taken as the intervention point. Interrupted time series analysis was used to identify trends pre and post intervention. Results: Following the Getting It Right First Time visits, there was evidence of a significant increase in the proportion of patients seen as day cases for transurethral resection of bladder tumour and decreased use of stents and increased use of ureteroscopy or extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy on first presentation with ureteric stones. However, there was no significant change in waiting times for surgery to treat patients who had an emergency presentation with urinary retention. Conclusions: There is evidence that the recommendations made are already having an impact on clinical practice. The reasons why some recommendations appear to be harder to implement requires further investigation. Level of evidence: 2b

Summary Background Analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the complete hospital population in England has been lacking. Our aim was to provide a comprehensive account of all hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in England during the early phase of the pandemic and to identify the factors that influenced mortality as the pandemic evolved. Methods This was a retrospective exploratory analysis using the Hospital Episode Statistics administrative dataset. All patients aged 18 years or older in England who completed a hospital stay (were discharged alive or died) between March 1 and May 31, 2020, and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 on admission or during their stay were included. In-hospital death was the primary outcome of interest. Multilevel logistic regression was used to model the relationship between death and several covariates: age, sex, deprivation (Index of Multiple Deprivation), ethnicity, frailty (Hospital Frailty Risk Score), presence of comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index items), and date of discharge (whether alive or deceased). Findings 91 541 adult patients with COVID-19 were discharged during the study period, among which 28 200 (30·8%) in-hospital deaths occurred. The final multilevel logistic regression model accounted for age, deprivation score, and date of discharge as continuous variables, and sex, ethnicity, and Charlson Comorbidity Index items as categorical variables. In this model, significant predictors of in-hospital death included older age (modelled using restricted cubic splines), male sex (1·457 [1·408–1·509]), greater deprivation (1·002 [1·001–1·003]), Asian (1·211 [1·128–1·299]) or mixed ethnicity (1·317 [1·080–1·605]; vs White ethnicity), and most of the assessed comorbidities, including moderate or severe liver disease (5·433 [4·618–6·392]). Later date of discharge was associated with a lower odds of death (0·977 [0·976–0·978]); adjusted in-hospital mortality improved significantly in a broadly linear fashion, from 52·2% in the first week of March to 16·8% in the last week of May. Interpretation Reductions in the adjusted probability of in-hospital mortality for COVID-19 patients over time might reflect the impact of changes in hospital strategy and clinical processes. The reasons for the observed improvements in mortality should be thoroughly investigated to inform the response to future outbreaks. The higher mortality rate reported for certain ethnic minority groups in community-based studies compared with our hospital-based analysis might partly reflect differential infection rates in those at greatest risk, propensity to become severely ill once infected, and health-seeking behaviours. Funding None.

BackgroundIn England, reported COVID-19 mortality rates increased during winter 2020/21 relative to earlier summer and autumn months. This study aimed to examine the association between COVID-19-related hospital bed-strain during this time and patient outcomes.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. All unique patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a completed (discharged alive or died in hospital) hospital stay with an admission date between 1 July 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included. Bed-strain was calculated as the number of beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 divided by the maximum COVID-19 bed occupancy during the study period. Bed-strain was categorised into quartiles for modelling. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest and length of stay a secondary outcome.ResultsThere were 253 768 unique hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay. Patient admissions peaked in January 2021 (n=89 047), although the crude mortality rate peaked slightly earlier in December 2020 (26.4%). After adjustment for covariates, the mortality rate in the lowest and highest quartile of bed-strain was 23.6% and 25.3%, respectively (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.17). For the lowest and the highest quartile of bed-strain, adjusted mean length of stay was 13.2 days and 11.6 days, respectively in survivors and was 16.5 days and 12.6 days, respectively in patients who died in hospital.ConclusionsHigh levels of bed-strain were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates, although the effect was relatively modest and may not fully explain increased mortality rates during winter 2020/21 compared with earlier months. Shorter hospital stay during periods of greater strain may partly reflect changes in patient management over time.

Introduction Although limited, existing epidemiological data on dementia in sub-Saharan Africa indicate that prevalence may be increasing; contrasting recent decreases observed in high-income countries. We have previously reported the age-adjusted prevalence of dementia in rural Tanzania in 2009-2010 as 6.4% (95% CI 4.9-7.9) in individuals aged ≥70 years. We aimed to repeat a community-based dementia prevalence study in the same setting to assess whether prevalence has changed. Methods This was a two-phase door-to-door community-based cross-sectional survey in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. In Phase I, trained primary health workers screened all consenting individuals aged ≥60 years from 12 villages using previously validated , locally developed, tools (IDEA cognitive screen and IDEA-Instrumental Activities of Daily Living questionnaire). Screening was conducted using a mobile digital application (app) on a hand-held tablet. In Phase II, a stratified sample of those identified in Phase I were clinically assessed using the DSM-5 criteria and diagnoses subsequently confirmed by consensus panel. Results Of 3011 people who consented, 424 screened positive for probable dementia and 227 for possible dementia. During clinical assessment in Phase II, 105 individuals met DSM-5 dementia criteria. The age-adjusted prevalence of dementia was 4.6% (95% CI 2.9-6.4) in those aged ≥60 years and 8.9% (95% CI 6.1-11.8) in those aged ≥70 years. Prevalence rates increased significantly with age. Conclusions The prevalence of dementia in this rural Tanzanian population appears to have increased since 2010, although not significantly. Dementia is likely to become a significant health burden in this population as demographic transition continues. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

There are over 3 million people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) aged 50 and over living with HIV. HIV and combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) exposure may accelerate the ageing in this population, and thus increase the prevalence of premature frailty. There is a paucity of data on the prevalence of frailty in an older HIV + population in SSA and screening and diagnostic tools to identify frailty in SSA. Patients aged ≥ 50 were recruited from a free Government HIV clinic in Tanzania. Frailty assessments were completed, using 3 diagnostic and screening tools: the Fried frailty phenotype (FFP), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and Brief Frailty Instrument for Tanzania (B-FIT 2). The 145 patients recruited had a mean CD4 + of 494.84 cells/µL, 99.3% were receiving cART and 72.6% were virally suppressed. The prevalence of frailty by FFP was 2.758%. FFP frailty was significantly associated with female gender (p = 0.006), marital status (p = 0.007) and age (p = 0.038). Weight loss was the most common FFP domain failure. The prevalence of frailty using the B-FIT 2 and the CFS was 0.68%. The B-FIT 2 correlated with BMI (r = − 0.467, p = 0.0001) and CD4 count in females (r = − 0.244, p = 0.02). There is an absence of frailty in this population, as compared to other clinical studies. This may be due to the high standard of HIV care at this Government clinic. Undernutrition may be an important contributor to frailty. It is unclear which tool is most accurate for detecting the prevalence of frailty in this setting as levels of correlation are low.

BackgroundTo gain maximum insight from large administrative healthcare datasets it is important to understand their data quality. Although a gold standard against which to assess criterion validity rarely exists for such datasets, internal consistency can be evaluated. We aimed to identify inconsistencies in the recording of mandatory International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) codes within the Hospital Episodes Statistics dataset in England.MethodsThree exemplar medical conditions where recording is mandatory once diagnosed were chosen: autism, type II diabetes mellitus and Parkinson’s disease dementia. We identified the first occurrence of the condition ICD-10 code for a patient during the period April 2013 to March 2021 and in subsequent hospital spells. We designed and trained random forest classifiers to identify variables strongly associated with recording inconsistencies.ResultsFor autism, diabetes and Parkinson’s disease dementia respectively, 43.7%, 8.6% and 31.2% of subsequent spells had inconsistencies. Coding inconsistencies were highly correlated with non-coding of an underlying condition, a change in hospital trust and greater time between the spell with the first coded diagnosis and the subsequent spell. For patients with diabetes or Parkinson’s disease dementia, the code recording for spells without an overnight stay were found to have a higher rate of inconsistencies.ConclusionsData inconsistencies are relatively common for the three conditions considered. Where these mandatory diagnoses are not recorded in administrative datasets, and where clinical decisions are made based on such data, there is potential for this to impact patient care.

Large healthcare datasets can provide insight that has the potential to improve outcomes for patients. However, it is important to understand the strengths and limitations of such datasets so that the insights they provide are accurate and useful. The aim of this study was to identify data inconsistencies within the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset for autistic patients and assess potential biases introduced through these inconsistencies and their impact on patient outcomes. The study can only identify inconsistencies in recording of autism diagnosis and not whether the inclusion or exclusion of the autism diagnosis is the error.Data were extracted from the HES database for the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2021 for patients with a diagnosis of autism. First spells in hospital during the study period were identified for each patient and these were linked to any subsequent spell in hospital for the same patient. Data inconsistencies were recorded where autism was not recorded as a diagnosis in a subsequent spell. Features associated with data inconsistencies were identified using a random forest classifiers and regression modelling.Data were available for 172,324 unique patients who had been recorded as having an autism diagnosis on first admission. In total, 43.7 % of subsequent spells were found to have inconsistencies. The features most strongly associated with inconsistencies included greater age, greater deprivation, longer time since the first spell, change in provider, shorter length of stay, being female and a change in the main specialty description. The random forest algorithm had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.864 (95 % CI [0.862 - 0.866]) in predicting a data inconsistency. For patients who died in hospital, inconsistencies in their final spell were significantly associated with being 80 years and over, being female, greater deprivation and use of a palliative care code in the death spell.Data inconsistencies in the HES database were relatively common in autistic patients and were associated a number of patient and hospital admission characteristics. Such inconsistencies have the potential to distort our understanding of service use in key demographic groups.

IMPORTANCE: Previous studies have suggested an association between surgical volume and patient outcomes for parathyroid surgery. However, most previous studies are relatively small and the literature is dominated by studies form the US, which might not be readily generalizable to other settings. OBJECTIVE: To investigate volume-outcome associations for parathyroid surgery in England. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study that included all National Health Service hospital trusts in England with secondary analysis of administrative data using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Participants included all adult, elective hospital admissions for parathyroid surgery without a diagnosis of multiple endocrine neoplasia, parathyroid cancer, or kidney disease over a 5-year period (April 2014-March 2019 inclusive). EXPOSURES: The number of procedures conducted in the year prior to the index procedure by each surgeon and each hospital trust. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Repeat parathyroid surgery within 1 year of the index procedure. RESULTS: This study included data for 17 494 participants who underwent parathyroidectomies conducted across 125 hospital trusts. The median (IQR) age of patients was 62 (53-71) years, and 13 826 were female (79.0%). Across the period, the number of surgeons conducting parathyroid surgery changed little (280 in 2014-2015 and 2018-2019), although the number of procedures conducted rose from 3331 to 3848 per annum. Repeat parathyroid surgery at 1 year was significantly associated with surgeon volume (odds ratio [OR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99), but not trust volume, in the previous 12 months. Extended length of stay (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99), hypoparathyroidism/calcium disorder (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.99-1.0), and postprocedural complications (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.0) were also associated with lower surgeon volume. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, higher surgeon annual volume was associated with decreased rates of repeat parathyroid surgery. A minimum volume threshold of 20 procedures per annum should improve patient outcomes, although possible negative effects on access to services should be monitored.

Background: Parkinsonism, including Parkinson’s disease (PD) are progressive neurological conditions. As these condition progress, individuals will need more support with their care needs to maintain independent community-living. Care needs are mainly met by unpaid, informal caregivers, usually close family members or friends. Caregiver strain is thought to lead to the need for care home placement when the caregiver can no longer cope. Objective: To understand predictors of caregiver strain and its influence on care home placement for people with moderate to advanced Parkinsonism. Methods: This is a convergent mixed methods study. Quantitative data, following an adapted stress-appraisal model, were collected on caregiver profile, tasks performed and causes of caregiver strain. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with caregivers of people with PD (PwP) who went into a care home during the study period, to develop a deeper understanding of the caregiver role and the factors influencing caregiver strain. Results: Quantitative data were collected from 115 patient caregiver dyads. Interviews were conducted with 10 caregivers. A model to predict caregiver strain was developed and predictors of caregiver strain were identified, such as functional disability and poor caregiver sleep. Conclusion: Our findings further demonstrate the complexity of carer strain. Particular dimensions are identified that need to be addressed within clinical practice to reduce carer strain and support people with Parkinsonism to remain within their own home for as long as possible.

Background: The global population is ageing rapidly, with the most dramatic increases in developing countries like Malaysia. Older people are at increased risk of multimorbidity, frailty and falls. Objectives: In this study we aimed to determine the relationship between social participation, frailty and falls in Malaysia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a cross-sectional study of individuals aged 55 years and above selected from the electoral rolls of three Klang Valley parliamentary constituencies through stratified random sampling. They were invited to take part in a questionnaire and physical assessment as part of the Malaysian Elders Longitudinal Research (MELoR) study. Measurements: Fallers were individuals who had fallen in the previous year. Frailty was defined as meeting ≥3 of: low body mass index, reduced cognition, low physical activity, low hand-grip strength, and slow walking speed. Social participation was determined from employment status, social network, and community activity. Binomial logistic regression multivariant analysis was performed to identify links between the measures of social participation and falls and frailty. Results: The mean age of the 1383 participants was 68.5 years, with 57.1% female. Within the population, 22.9% were fallers and 9.3% were frail. Social isolation (OR= 2.119; 95% CI=1.351-3.324), and non-engagement in community activities (OR=2.548; 95% CI=1.107-5.865) were associated with increased frailty. Falls increased with social isolation (OR=1.327; 95% CI=1.004-1.754). Conclusions: Previous studies have shown social participation to be linked to frailty and falls risk, and social isolation to be a predictor of falls. In this study frailty was associated with all three social participation measures and history of falls was associated with social isolation.

Purpose To investigate the variation in the use of, and outcomes for, vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BKP) techniques for osteoporotic spinal fracture for patients operated on within the National Health Service in England. Methods This was an observational analysis of administrative data. Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the period 1st April 2011 to 31st March 2018 for all VP and BKP procedures. Patients aged

Objectives: This paper aims to describe the prevalence, patterns and factors associated with multimorbidity, by both self-report and clinical assessment/screening methods in community-dwelling older people living in rural Tanzania. Methods: A randomised frailty-weighted sample of non-institutionalised adults aged ≥60 years underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment and in-depth assessment. The comprehensive geriatric assessment consisted of a history and focused clinical examination. The in-depth assessment included standardised questionnaires, screening tools and blood pressure measurement. The prevalence of multimorbidity was calculated for self-report and non-self-reported methods (clinician diagnosis, screening tools and direct measurement). Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more conditions. The socio-demographic associations with multimorbidity were investigated by multivariate logistic regression.Results: A sample of 235 adults participated in the study, selected from a screened sample of 1207. The mean age was 75 years (range 60 to 110) and 136 (57.8%) were women. Adjusting for frailty-weighting, the prevalence of self-reported multimorbidity was 26.1% (95% CI 16.7-35.4), and by clinical assessment/screening was 67.3% (95% CI 57.0-77.5). Adjusting for age, sex, education and frailty status, multimorbidity by self-report increased the odds of being financially dependent on others threefold (OR 3.3 [95% CI 1.4-7.8]), and of a household member reducing their paid employment nearly fourfold (OR 3.8. [95% CI 1.5-9.2]).Conclusions: Multimorbidity is prevalent in this rural lower-income African setting and is associated with evidence of household financial strain. Multimorbidity prevalence is higher when not reliant on self-reported methods, revealing that many conditions are underdiagnosed and undertreated.

Objective To investigate whether a volume–outcome relationship exists for elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery conducted within the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Methods This was an analysis of administrative data. Data were extracted from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for England from April 2011 to March 2019 for all adult admissions for elective infrarenal AAA surgery. Data were extracted for the NHS trust and surgeon undertaking the procedure, the surgical technique used (open or endovascular), the financial year of admission, length of hospital and critical care stay during the procedure and subsequent emergency re-admissions (primary outcome) and deaths within 30 days. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and confounding. Results A dataset of 31 829 procedures (8867 open, 22 962 endovascular) was extracted. For open surgery, lower trust annual volume was associated with higher 30 day emergency re-admission rates and higher 30 day mortality. For open surgery, lower surgeon annual volume was associated with higher 30 day mortality and length of hospital stay greater than the median. For endovascular surgery, lower surgeon annual volume was associated with not having an overnight stay in critical care. None of the other volume–outcome relationships investigated was significant. Conclusion For elective infrarenal AAA surgery in the UK NHS, there was strong evidence of a volume–outcome relationship for open surgery. However, evidence for a volume–outcome relationship is dependent on the specific procedure undertaken and the outcome of interest.

Background: The majority of people with dementia live in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) human-resource shortages in mental health and geriatric medicine are well recognized. Use of technological solutions may improve access to diagnosis. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a brief dementia screening mobile application (app) for non-specialist workers in rural Tanzania against blinded gold-standard diagnosis of DSM-5 dementia. The app includes 2 previously-validated culturally appropriate low-literacy screening tools for cognitive (IDEA cognitive screen) and functional impairment (abbreviated IDEA-IADL questionnaire). Methods: This was a 2-stage community-based door-to-door study. In Stage1, rural primary health workers approached all individuals aged ≥60 years for app-based dementia screening in 12 villages in Hai district, Kilimanjaro Tanzania. In Stage 2, a stratified sub-sample were clinically-assessed for dementia blind to app screening score. Assessment included clinical history, neurological and bedside cognitive assessment and collateral history. Results: 3011 (of 3122 eligible) older people consented to screening. Of these, 610 were evaluated in Stage 2. For the IDEA cognitive screen, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) for DSM-5 dementia diagnosis (sensitivity 84.8%, specificity 58.4%). For those 358 (44%) completing the full app, AUROC was 0.78 for combined cognitive and informant-reported functional assessment. Conclusions: The pilot dementia screening app had good sensitivity but lacked specificity for dementia when administered by non-specialist rural community workers. This technological approach may be a promising way forward in low-resource settings, specialist onward referral may be prioritized.

Objectives HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND), although prevalent, remains a poorly researched cause of morbidity particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to explore the risk factors for HAND in people aged 50 and over under regular follow-up at a government HIV clinic in Tanzania. Methods HIV-positive adults aged 50 years and over were approached for recruitment at a routine HIV clinic appointment over a 4-month period. A diagnostic assessment for HAND was implemented, including a full medical/neurological assessment and a collateral history from a relative. We investigated potential risk factors using a structured questionnaire and by examination of clinic records. Results Of the cohort (n = 253), 183 (72.3%) were female and the median age was 57 years. Fifty-five individuals (21.7%) met the criteria for symptomatic HAND. Participants were at a greater risk of having symptomatic HAND if they lived alone [odds ratio (OR) = 2.566, P = .015], were illiterate (OR 3.171, P = .003) or older at the time of HIV diagnosis (OR = 1.057, P = .015). Age was correlated with symptomatic HAND in univariate, but not multivariate analysis. Conclusions In this setting, HIV-specific factors, such as nadir CD4 count, were not related to symptomatic HAND. The "legacy theory" of early central nervous system damage prior to initiation of anti-retroviral therapy initiation may contribute, only in part, to a multifactorial aetiology of HAND in older people. Social isolation and illiteracy were associated with symptomatic HAND, suggesting greater cognitive reserve might be protective.

Background Older adults with lower levels of activity can be at risk of poor health outcomes. Wearable technology has improved the acceptability and objectivity of measuring activity for older adults in high-income countries. Nevertheless, the technology is under-utilized in low-to-middle income countries. The aim was to explore feasibility, acceptability and utility of wearable technology to measure walking activity in rural-dwelling, older Tanzanians. Methods A total of 65 participants (73.9 ± 11.2 years), 36 non-frail and 29 frail, were assessed. Free-living data were recorded for 7 days with an accelerometer on the lower back. Data were analyzed via an automatic cloud-based pipeline: volume, pattern and variability of walking were extracted. Acceptability questionnaires were completed. T-tests were used for comparison between the groups. Results 59/65 datasets were analyzed. Questionnaires indicated that 15/65 (23.0%) experienced some therapeutic benefit from the accelerometer, 15/65 (23.0%) expected diagnostic benefit; 16/65 (24.6%) experienced symptoms while wearing the accelerometer (e.g. itching). Frail adults walked significantly less, had less variable walking patterns, and had a greater proportion of shorter walking bouts compared to the non-frail. Conclusion This study suggests that important contextual and practical limitations withstanding wearable technology may be feasible for measuring walking activity in older rural-dwelling adults in low-income settings, identifying those with frailty.

The aim of this study was to detail the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in England.This was an exploratory retrospective analysis of observational data from the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset for England. All patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a hospital stay that was completed between 1st March 2020 and 31st March 2021 were included. A recorded diagnosis of VTE during the index stay or during a subsequent admission in the six weeks following discharge was the primary outcome in the main analysis. In secondary analysis, VTE diagnosis was the primary exposure and in-hospital mortality the primary outcome.Over the 13 months, 374,244 unique patients had a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay, of whom 17,346 (4.6%) had a recorded diagnosis of VTE. VTE was more commonly recorded in patients aged 40-79 years, males and in patients of Black ethnicity, even after adjusting for covariates. Recorded VTE diagnosis was associated with longer hospital stay and higher adjusted in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.35 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 1.41)).VTE was a common complication of hospitalisation with COVID-19 in England. VTE was associated with both increased length of stay and mortality rate.

Background Social vulnerability correlates with frailty and is associated with mortality and disability. However, few studies have investigated this relationship outside of high-income country settings. This study aimed to produce and analyze a culturally adapted social vulnerability index (SVI) to investigate the relationship between social vulnerability, frailty, and mortality in older adults in Tanzania. Methods An SVI was produced using data from a cohort study investigating frailty in older adults in Tanzania. Variables were selected based on previous SVI studies using the categories established by Andrew et al. from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging, and National Population Health Survey. The SVI distribution was examined and compared with a frailty index (FI) produced from the same sample, using mutually exclusive variables. Cox regression survival analysis was used to investigate the association between social vulnerability, frailty, and mortality. Results A stratified cohort of 235 individuals were included in the study at baseline, with a mean age of 75.2 (SD 11.5). Twenty-six participants died within the follow-up period, with a mean of 503 days (range: 405–568) following the initial assessment. The SVI had a median score of 0.47 (interquartile range: 0.23, range: 0.14–0.86). Social vulnerability significantly predicted mortality when adjusting for age and gender, but not when also adjusting for frailty. Conclusions Social vulnerability can be successfully operationalized and culturally adapted in Tanzania. Social vulnerability is associated with mortality in Tanzania, but not independently of frailty.

Study design Retrospective cohort study. Objectives Same-day discharge is widely used in many surgical specialities. If carefully planned, it can improve patient outcomes whilst using resources efficiently. We aimed to investigate the safety of same-day discharge following a posterior lumbar decompression and/or discectomy (PLDD). Methods This was a retrospective analysis of administrative data. We extracted data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics database for the 5 years from 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2019. Patients undergoing an elective one or two level PLDD aged 19-54 years during the index stay were included. The primary exposure variable was same-day discharge or post-surgery overnight stay and the primary outcome was emergency hospital readmission within 90 days post-discharge. Results Data were available for 45,814 PLDD performed across 103 hospital trusts of which 7914 (17.3%) were performed as same-day discharge. Same-day discharge rates varied from 87.7% to 0% across the 90 hospital trusts that operated on more than 50 patients during the study period. Fourteen (15.6%) trusts had same-day discharge rates above 30% and 57 (63.3%) trusts had same-day discharge rates below 10%. The odds of emergency hospital readmission within 90 days were lower for same-day discharge patients (odds ratio .72 (95% confidence interval .61 to .85). There was no difference in outcomes for patients seen at trusts with a same-day discharge rate of ≥30% compared to trusts with a same-day discharge rate of ≤10%. Conclusions Same-day discharge low-complexity elective PLDD is safe in adult patients below the age of 55 years. There is potential for many providers to substantially increase their rates of same-day discharge.

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA),cognitive screening is complicated by both cultural and educational factors, and the existing normative values may not be applicable. The Identification of Dementia in Elderly Africans (IDEA) cognitive screen is a low-literacy measure with good diagnostic accuracy for dementia. Objective: The aim of this study is to report normative values for IDEA and other simple measures [i.e., categorical verbal fluency, the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD) 10-word list] in representative community-dwelling older adults in SSA. Methods: Individuals aged ≥60 years resident in 12 representative villages in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania and individuals aged ≥65 years resident within three communities in Akinyele Local Government Area, Oyo State, Nigeria underwent cognitive screening. The normative data were generated by the categories of age, sex, and education. Results: A total of 3,011 people in Tanzania (i.e., 57.3% females and 26.4% uneducated) and 1,117 in Nigeria (i.e., 60.3% females and 64.5% uneducated) were screened. Individuals with higher age, lower education, and female gender obtained lower scores. The 50th decile values for IDEA were 13 (60–64 years) vs. 8/9 (above 85 years), 10–11 uneducated vs. 13 primary educated, and 11/12 in females vs. 13 in males. The normative values for 10-word list delayed recall and categorical verbal fluency varied with education [i.e., delayed recall mean 2.8 [standard deviation (SD) 1.7] uneducated vs. 4.2 (SD 1.2) secondary educated; verbal fluency mean 9.2 (SD 4.8) uneducated vs. 12.2 (SD 4.3) secondary educated], substantially lower than published high-income country values. Conclusions: The cut-off values for commonly used cognitive screening items should be adjusted to suit local normative values, particularly where there are lower levels of education. RESUMO Na África Subsaariana (ASS), a triagem cognitiva é complicada por fatores culturais e educacionais, além dos valores normativos existentes poderem não ser aplicáveis. O rastreio cognitivo Identification of Dementia in Elderly Africans (IDEA) é uma medida para níveis baixos de alfabetização com boa acurácia diagnóstica para demência. Objetivo: Relatar os valores normativos para a IDEA e outras medidas simples (fluência verbal categórica, a lista de 10 palavras do Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD) em idosos residentes na comunidade, representativos da ASS. Métodos: Indivíduos com idade ≥60 residentes em 12 comunidades representativas em Kilimanjaro, Tanzânia e indivíduos com idade ≥65 anos residentes em três comunidades na área governamental de Akinyele, Estado de Oyo, Nigéria, foram submetidos à triagem cognitiva. Os dados normativos foram gerados por faixas etárias, sexo e escolaridade. Resultados: Um total de 3.011 pessoas na Tanzânia (57,3% mulheres, 26,4% sem educação) e 1.117 na Nigéria (60,3% mulheres, 64,5% sem educação) foram examinadas. Os indivíduos com idade mais alta, menor escolaridade e mulheres obtiveram escores mais baixos. Os valores do percentil 50 para a IDEA foram 13 (60–64 anos) vs. 8/9 (85+ anos), 10–11 para analfabetos vs. 13 com educação primária e 11/12 em mulheres vs. 13 em homens. Os valores normativos para a evocação tardia da lista de 10 palavras e a fluência verbal categórica variaram com a educação (evocação tardia 2,8 (SD 1,7) para os sem educação, vs. 4,2 (SD 1,2) para com educação secundária; fluência verbal 9,2 (DP 4,8) para os sem educação vs. 12,2 (SD 4.3) para os com ensino médio, substancialmente inferior aos valores publicados em países de alta renda. Conclusões: Os valores de corte para testes de triagem cognitiva comumente usados devem ser ajustados para se adequar aos valores normativos locais, particularmente em níveis baixos de educação.

Delirium prevalence and aetiology in older people in hospital or community settings in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is largely unknown. Cognitive screening tools designed for high-income countries (HICs) may be inappropriate due to cultural and educational differences, and delirium-specific measures lack validation in this context. The 'Identification and Intervention for Dementia in Elderly Africans' (IDEA) screen is a low-literacy tool developed and validated for dementia and delirium screening in Tanzania and Nigeria. This study aims to determine the prevalence and aetiology of delirium and dementia in older hospitalised patients in Zambia and to assess the utility of the IDEA screen for identification of major cognitive impairment in this setting. This was a blinded 4-month validation study which took place February-June 2015. Consecutive inpatient admissions of a rural mission hospital aged ≥60 years were administered the IDEA screen onadmission. Individuals were evaluated for dementia or delirium based on clinical examination, notes review and the Confusion Assessment Method. Delirium aetiological factors were recorded and classified (infectious/non-infectious). Of 136 patients recruited, dementia, delirium and major cognitive impairment were identified in 37 (27.2%), 45 (33.1%) and 62 (45.6%) respectively. Diagnostic accuracy of the IDEA screen for dementia and delirium was 0.661-0.795 (AUROC). Of those with delirium, 18 (40%) were classified infectious and 26 (57.8%) were classified non-infectious aetiologies. Dementia and delirium prevalence in older Zambian inpatients is comparable tohigh-income countries. The IDEA screen ispotentially clinically useful in this setting though diagnostic accuracy was lower than in initial validation studies. Non-infectious diseases are more highly represented amongst delirium precipitants than anticipated.

Identifying older people who are most vulnerable to adverse outcomes is important. This is particularly so in low-resource settings, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where access to social and healthcare services is often limited. To validate and further refine a frailty screening tool for SSA. Phase I screening of people aged 60 years and over was conducted using the Brief Frailty Instrument for Tanzania (B-FIT). In phase II, a stratified, frailty-weighed sample was assessed across a range of variables covering cognition, physical function (including continence, mobility, weakness and exhaustion) nutrition, mood, co-morbidity, sensory impairment, polypharmacy, social support and self-rated health. The frailty-weighted sample was also assessed for frailty according to the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA), which we used as our ‘gold standard’ diagnosis. Of 235 people in the frailty-weighted sample, 91 (38.7%) were frail according to CGA, the median age was 73 years and 136 (57.9%) were female. In multivariable modelling, physical disability (Barthel index), cognitive impairment (IDEA cognitive screen), calf circumference, poor distance vision and problems engaging in social activities were found to be associated with frailty. After developing a scoring system, based on regression coefficients, a modified B-FIT screen (B-FIT 2) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.925, a sensitivity of 86.2% and a specificity of 88.8%. The inclusion of items assessing nutrition, social support and sensory impairment improved the performance of the B-FIT. The B-FIT 2 should be externally validated.

Objectives To investigate volume-outcome relationships in nephrectomy and cystectomy for cancer. Materials and methods Data were extracted from the UK Hospital Episodes Statistics database, which records data on all National Health Service (NHS) hospital admissions in the England. Data were included for a 5-year period (April 2013-March 2018 inclusive) and data on emergency and paediatric admissions were excluded. Data were extracted on the NHS trust and surgeon undertaking the procedure, the surgical technique used (open, laparoscopic or robot-assisted) and length of hospital stay during the procedure. This dataset was supplemented by data on mortality from the UK Office for National Statistics. A number of volume thresholds and volume measures were investigated. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and confounding factors. Results Data were available for 18 107 nephrectomy and 6762 cystectomy procedures for cancer. There was little evidence of trust or surgeon volume influencing readmission rates or mortality. There was some evidence of shorter length of hospital stay for high-volume surgeons, although the volume measure and threshold used were important. Conclusions We found little evidence that further centralization of nephrectomy or cystectomy for cancer surgery will improve the patient outcomes investigated. It may be that length of stay can be optimized though training and support for lower-volume centres, rather than further centralization.

Endogenous brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is thought to be protective against the neurodegeneration seen in Parkinson’s disease (PD), and is thought to increase during exercise. This has been proposed as a possible mechanism by which exercise improves outcomes for people with PD. We conducted a pilot study to investigate the role of exercise intensity on BDNF levels in people with PD. Participants of early- to mid-stage disease were recruited from a single PD service in north-east England, UK into two separate studies of exercise in PD, one involving moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT) and one involving high-intensity interval training (HIIT), both had control groups. In both the interventions, participants exercise three times per week for 12 weeks. Blood samples were taken for BDNF analysis at the start and end of the first session and the start and end of the final session, with corresponding samples taken in controls. Data were available for 27 participants (13 intervention, 14 control) in the MICT intervention and 17 (9 intervention, 8 control) in the HIIT intervention. BDNF level did not rise significantly from the start to end of individual sessions. Across the 12 week period, they rose significantly in the HIIT intervention group, but not in controls or the MICT intervention group. High-intensity interval training appears to have a greater impact on BDNF than MICT. Future work should directly compare exercise modalities and investigate the impact of BDNF levels on disease progression and quality of life.

We aimed to investigate outcomes of transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) surgery when performed as day-case surgery compared to outcomes for patients who stayed ⩾ 1 night in hospital. Data were taken from the 2017–2018 Hospital Episodes Statistics data set, which contains data for all TURBT procedures conducted within the National Health Service in England. Data were categorised as those seen as day-cases and those that involved an overnight stay. Of 19,383 TURBT procedures, 3466 (17.9%) were classified as day-case surgery. Those who had an overnight stay were significantly older and were significantly more likely to be male, and have significantly greater frailty and comorbidity. After adjusting for confounders, those with an overnight stay had significantly poorer outcomes with regard to mortality and emergency readmission rates. Comparing trusts with the highest and lowest rate, of overnight stay, there were no differences in the profiles of the patients seen or in outcomes. Patients undergoing TURBT as day-case surgery have at least as good outcomes as those having an overnight stay. Investigation of the technical quality of the tumour resection, patient experience and quality of life after day-case surgery for TURBT would provide further insight. Evidence level: 2b

Lloyd Oates, Annette Hand, Lorelle Dismore, William Gray and Richard Walker discuss a study they carried out into the wellbeing of people with Parkinson's disease in care homes and make a number of recommendations based on thematic analysis of the data.

Background We previously investigated the prevalence of alcohol consumption in early pregnancy in Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, a locality of north-east England. The prevalence was 1.4% based on blood sample biomarker analysis using carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) and 3.5% for gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT). Aims To supplement this research by investigating the prevalence of alcohol use using identical methods in a different locality of the same region. Methods Six-hundred random blood samples taken at the antenatal booking appointment were anonymously analysed for the presence of CDT, a validated marker of chronic alcohol exposure (normalizing 2–3 weeks from abstinence) and GGT, a liver enzyme elevated for up to 8 weeks after alcohol exposure. Results The North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust data revealed a CDT prevalence rate of 1.7% (95% CI: 0.7–2.9) and GGT prevalence rate of 4.2% (95% CI: 2.6–5.9). However, these measures are not sensitive to low levels of alcohol; and no overlapping cases were identified or a significant correlation demonstrated between CDT or GGT. Discussion These data support our earlier work. Prevalence rates according to CDT and GGT analysis were similar in both areas, suggesting similar patterns of sustained alcohol use in pregnancy across the region.

Background:Depression in older people is likely to become a growing global health problem with aging populations. Significant cultural variation exists in beliefs about depression (terminology, symptomatology, and treatments) but data from sub-Saharan Africa are minimal. Low-resource interventions for depression have been effective in low-income settings but cannot be utilized without accurate diagnosis. This study aimed to achieve a shared understanding of depression in Tanzania in older people.Methods:Using a qualitative design, focus groups were conducted with participants aged 60 and over. Participants from rural villages of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, were selected via randomized sampling using census data. Topic guides were developed including locally developed case vignettes. Transcripts were translated into English from Swahili and thematic analysis conducted.Findings:Ten focus groups were held with 81 participants. Three main themes were developed: a) conceptualization of depression by older people and differentiation from other related conditions (“too many thoughts,” cognitive symptoms, affective and biological symptoms, wish to die, somatic symptoms, and its difference to other concepts); b) the causes of depression (inability to work, loss of physical strength and independence, lack of resources, family difficulties, chronic disease); c) management of depression (love and comfort, advice, spiritual support, providing help, medical help).Conclusions:This research expands our understanding of how depression presents in older Tanzanians and provides information about lay beliefs regarding causes and management options. This may allow development of culturally specific screening tools for depression that, in turn, increase diagnosis rates, support accurate diagnosis, improve service use, and reduce stigma.

HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) are a highly prevalent chronic complication in older people living with HIV (PLWH) in high-income countries. Although sub-Saharan Africa has a newly emergent population of older combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-treated PLWH, HAND have not been studied longitudinally. We assessed longitudinal prevalence of HAND and have identified possible modifiable factors in a population of PLWH aged 50 years or older, over 3 years of follow-up.Detailed neuropsychological and clinical assessment was completed annually in the period 2016-2019 in a systematic sample of cART-treated PLWH in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. A consensus panel defined HAND using American Academy of Neurology criteria for asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment, mild neurocognitive disorder, and HIV-associated dementia. HIV disease severity and other factors associated with HAND progression, improvement, and stability were evaluated in individuals fully assessed at baseline and in 2019.At baseline, 47% of the cohort (n = 253, 72.3% female individuals) met HAND criteria despite good HIV disease control [Y1 59.5% (n = 185), Y2 61.7% (n = 162), and Y3 57.9% (n = 121)]. Of participants fully assessed at baseline and year 3 (n = 121), HAND remained stable in 54% (n = 57), improved in 15% (n = 16), and declined in 31% (n = 33). Older age and lower education level significantly predicted HAND progression, whereas HIV-specific factors did not. Male sex and shorter cART duration were associated with improvement.In this first longitudinal study characterizing clinical course of HAND in older cART-treated PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa, HAND was highly prevalent with variable progression and reversibility. Progression may be more related to cognitive reserve than HIV disease in cART-treated PLWH.

OBJECTIVES To investigate volume-outcome relationships in robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) for cancer using data from the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) database for England. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data for all adult, elective RPs for cancer during the period January 2013-December 2018 (inclusive) were extracted from the HES database. The HES database records data on all National Health Service (NHS) hospital admissions in England. Data were extracted for the NHS trust and surgeon undertaking the procedure, the surgical technique used (laparoscopic, open or robot-assisted), hospital length of stay (LOS), emergency readmissions, and deaths. Multilevel modelling was used to adjust for hierarchy and covariates. RESULTS Data were available for 35 629 RPs (27 945 RARPs). The proportion of procedures conducted as RARPs increased from 53.2% in 2013 to 92.6% in 2018. For RARP, there was a significant relationship between 90-day emergency hospital readmission (primary outcome) and trust volume (odds ratio [OR] for volume decrease of 10 procedures: 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.00; P = 0.037) and surgeon volume (OR for volume decrease of 10 procedures: 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00; P = 0.013) in the previous year. From lowest to highest volume category there was a decline in the adjusted proportion of patients readmitted as an emergency at 90 days from 10.6% (0-49 procedures) to 7.0% (≥300 procedures) for trusts and from 9.4% (0-9 procedures) to 8.3% (≥100 procedures) for surgeons. LOS was also significantly associated with surgeon and trust volume, although 1-year mortality was associated with neither. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence of a volume-outcome relationship for RARP in England and minimising low-volume RARP will improve patient outcomes. Nevertheless, the observed effect size was relatively modest, and stakeholders should be realistic when evaluating the likely impact of further centralisation at a population level.