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The need for handling the deep uncertainty surrounding the future climate has led to various novel and robust approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) when adapting to climate change. Here, an online and self-explanatory web-based tool was developed and tested with civil servants from five municipalities in Sweden challenged by rising sea levels. The municipalities used the tool by themselves and were then interviewed about the usability of the tool, the perceived urgency of climate change adaptation, and the possibilities for municipalities for handling the flexible solutions that are at the core of DMDU. Results were that the civil servants reported that the urgency of climate change adaptation has increased, that the tool changed their perspectives compared to traditional planning methods, and that changes in laws and regulations to accommodate decisions about flexible solutions were recommended.

The need for handling the deep uncertainty surrounding the future climate has led to various novel and robust approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) when adapting to climate change. Here, an online and self-explanatory web-based tool was developed and tested with civil servants from five municipalities in Sweden challenged by rising sea levels. The municipalities used the tool by themselves and were then interviewed about the usability of the tool, the perceived urgency of climate change adaptation, and the possibilities for municipalities for handling the flexible solutions that are at the core of DMDU. Results were that the civil servants reported that the urgency of climate change adaptation has increased, that the tool changed their perspectives compared to traditional planning methods, and that changes in laws and regulations to accommodate decisions about flexible solutions were recommended., QC 20240402

Value judgments in environmental risk assessments can sometimes have critical influences on policies. The phenomenon that values can have lasting effects is conceptualized as “value-inertia.” Value-inertia is exemplified and demonstrated through assessments of climate change risks. The problems of value-inertia are discussed, and suggestions to mitigate the problems are provided. Most importantly, decision-makers need to be aware that environmental risk assessments may be affected by value-inertia. However, because it is often difficult for decision-makers to both identify and compensate for previous value judgments, scientists and experts also have a moral responsibility to mitigate problems caused by value-inertia., QC 20211201

Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate change. However, the success of flexible approaches in practice depends on the stability of the relevant organizational landscapes. In this paper, we draw upon key insights from the institutional theories of organizations and research on public administration and climate adaptation in Sweden. We argue that potential organizational instabilities pose a substantial challenge for the mainstreaming of flexible approaches to climate adaptation. Given the unstable character of the relevant organizational landscape in a very stable country such as Sweden, it seems reasonable to also seriously doubt the capacity of the relevant authorities in less stable countries to carry out a great number of monitoring-intensive, and hence attention-demanding, adaptive governance processes over time. Based on our results we argue that it is perilous to simply assume that flexible approaches to climate adaptation will lead to greater robustness., QC 20220426

Handling uncertainties is a major challenge in climate change adaptation. A variety of robust decision support approaches that aim for better management of uncertainty have recently been emerging and are used in environmental planning. The present study examined to what extent existing processes of planning for future sea-level rise in Sweden utilised similar approaches. Three core principles of robust decision support approaches were identified and used as a tool for analyzing five cases of planning for future sea-level rise in companies and authorities at different levels in society. The results show that planning processes typically do not embrace uncertainties, do not use a bottom-up approach and do not specifically aim for robustness, which points to a discrepancy between current planning paradigms and the core principles of robust decision support approaches., QC 20190830

The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome., QC 20190218

Standard tools used in societal risk management such as probabilistic risk analysis or cost–benefit analysis typically define risks in terms of only probabilities and consequences and assume a utilitarian approach to ethics that aims to maximize expected utility. The philosopher Carl F. Cranor has argued against this view by devising a list of plausible aspects of the acceptability of risks that points towards a non-consequentialist ethical theory of societal risk management. This paper revisits Cranor’s list to argue that the alternative ethical theory responsibility-catering prioritarianism can accommodate the aspects identified by Cranor and that the elements in the list can be used to inform the details of how to view risks within this theory. An approach towards operationalizing the theory is proposed based on a prioritarian social welfare function that operates on responsibility-adjusted utilities. A responsibility-catering prioritarian ethical approach towards managing risks is a promising alternative to standard tools such as cost–benefit analysis.

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea-level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Res, QC 20180404

QC 20171009

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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection., QC 20161111

A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea-level rise (SLR) will be, society needs to prepare and adapt. This study examines the state of planning for future SLR in Sweden by surveying 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden and interviewing local, regional and national authorities with relevant accountability. The results reveal that there are considerable gaps in current planning for SLR. Almost one-third of municipalities lack guiding planning documents for SLR, and more than two-thirds do not discuss SLR beyond 2100. We argue that the prevailing uncertainty and ambiguity in assessments of future SLR is problematic within a traditional “predict-then-act” paradigm, and that robust approaches, such as scenario planning, can reduce many of these problems., QC 20150625, Climatools

Ett varmare klimat innebär stigande havsnivåer. Samhället behöver förbereda sig på att hantera dessa, trots de osäkerheter som råder kring hur snabb och omfattande havsnivåhöjningen kommer att bli. I denna rapport kartlägger vi hur 33 kustkommuner i södra Sverige hanterar höjda havsnivåer i sin planering och vilka uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer de utgår ifrån. Vi analyserar också svaren i ett antal intervjuer med handläggare ansvariga för havsnivåplanering vid kommuner, länsstyrelser, Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB), Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut (SMHI) och ett konsultbolag. Den största osäkerheten i projektionerna av framtida havsnivåer är hur inlandsisarna på Grönland och Antarktis kommer att reagera på klimatförändringarna. Dessa har reagerat snabbare än vad man tidigare trodde. Under senare tid har allt högre värden angetts i flera artiklar publicerade i vetenskapliga tidskrifter. Här uppskattar man höjningen av havsnivån fram till år 2100 till 1–2 meter för de högsta utsläppsscenarierna. Havet kommer också fortsätta att stiga under många århundraden, även om utsläppen av växthusgaser upphör helt. Den lokala havsnivåhöjningen varierar från det globala medelvärdet och påverkas av flera olika faktorer. Kartläggningen av kommunala planeringsdokument visar att det finns stora brister i dagens planering för en framtida havsnivåhöjning. Nära en tredjedel av de studerade kommunerna saknar helt uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer i sin planering. Av de kommuner som uppskattar kommande havsnivåer saknar sex av tio tydliga källor till sina uppskattningar. SMHI är den dominerande källan till kommunernas uppskattningar av framtida havsnivåer. Spridningen är dock stor mellan olika kommuners uppskattningar, vilket pekar på den osäkerhet som råder om vilken uppskattning av framtida havsnivåhöjning som är rimlig att förhålla sig till. De senaste åren kan en trend skönjas att kommuner utgår från SMHI:s uppskattning om "runt en meter, A warmer climate leads to rising sea levels. Despite uncertainties about how rapid and substantial future sea level rise will be, society needs to prepare. In this report we examine how 33 coastal municipalities in southern Sweden plan for rising sea levels and what estimated future sea levels their planning is based on. We also analyse the responses in a number of interviews with individuals responsible for sea level planning at the studied municipalities, county administrative boards, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and a consultancy firm. The greatest uncertainty in future sea level projections is how the inland ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will react to climate change. The reaction so far has been more rapid than previously thought. Recently, increasing levels have been mentioned in several articles published in scientific journals. In these articles, sea level rise is estimated to 1–2 metres by 2100 for the highest emissions scenarios. The sea will continue to rise for many centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions cease completely. Local sea level rise differs from the global average and is affected by several factors. Our survey of municipal planning documents reveals that there are considerable gaps in current planning for future sea level rise. Almost one third of the municipalities studied have no estimates of future sea levels whatsoever in their planning. Among the municipalities that in fact estimate future sea levels, six out of ten lack clear sources for their estimates. SMHI is the dominant source for municipalities' estimates of future sea level rise. There is, however, considerable difference between the estimates of various municipalities. This illustrates the uncertainty that exists about what future sea level rise estimate is most reasonable to relate to. In recent years there is evidence of a trend that municipalities are using SMHI's estimate of a sea level, QC 20121109. Studien har gjorts inom ramen för forskningsprogrammet Climatools, ett tvärvetenskapligt forskningssamarbete mellan FOI, Umeå universitet, KTH och Konjunkturinstitutet. Climatools löper mellan åren 2007 och 2012 och finansieras av Naturvårdsverket., Climatools

Nuclear power generation require protection against harmful effects of ionizing radiation. Radiation protection is based on the linear, no‐threshold model of health risks at low doses and three fundamental principles: justification, optimization, and limitation. The practical application of radiation protection is divided into three areas: planned, emergency, and existing exposure situations. Planned exposure situations include difficult social issues related to the exposure of large populations, exposure of future generations, protection against accidents, and protection of the environment. Emergency and existing exposure situations are both characterized by heterogeneous distributions of exposures and complex social and economic aspects, which make assessment and evaluation of protective strategies complicated and value laden. Four problem areas of social and ethical issues stand out as central for radiation protection: The first is uncertainty and the influence of value judgments in scientific risk assessments. The second is distributions of risks and benefits between different individuals, both in space and time. The third is the problem of setting limits when there is no known level of exposure that is associated with a zero risk. The fourth central problem area is related to stakeholder influence and risk communication., QC 20220202

We argue that responsibility-catering prioritarianism is well positioned to deal with the basic requirements of an ethical theory of risk. We show how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utili-ties. For this purpose, we propose a hypothetical utility measure based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Finally, we argue that degrees of control and knowledge of risks and consequences should influence when and how people are considered responsible in social decisions on risk.

QC 20120816

One of the central issues in radiation protection consists in determining what weight should be given to individual doses in relation to collective or aggregated doses. A mathematical framework is introduced in which such assessments can be made precisely in terms of comparisons between alternative distributions of individual doses. In addition to evaluation principles that are well known from radiation protection, a series of principles that are derived from parallel discussions in moral philosophy and welfare economics is investigated. A battery of formal properties is then used to investigate the evaluative principles. The results indicate that one of the new principles, bilinear prioritarianism, may be preferable to current practices, since it satisfies efficiency-related properties better without sacrificing other desirable properties., QC 20101124

QC 20101124

We argue that responsibility-catering prioritarianism is well positioned to deal with the basic requirements of an ethical theory of risk. We show how responsibility-catering prioritarianism can be operationalized using a prioritarian social welfare function based on hypothetical utilities. For this purpose, we propose a hypothetical utility measure based on the utility that would normally be expected given circumstances outside of the control of the individual. Finally, we argue that degrees of control and knowledge of risks and consequences should influence when and how people are considered responsible in social decisions on risk., QS 2012

Value sensitive design (VSD) aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. VSD has until now not been applied to design for long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning impacted by climate change. This paper proposes a method that combines scenario planning with elements from VSD and applies it to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden. We have labelled it Value Sensitive Scenario Planning. The suitability of combining VSD and scenario planning and the potential to use this approach to study ethical issues in adaptation to SLR is discussed. Combining VSD with future scenarios is a promising new method to take social and ethical values seriously when planning for uncertain futures., QC 20210512, Sea-rims