37 results on '"Wiedenhofer, D."'
Search Results
2. Demand-side strategies key for mitigating material impacts of energy transitions
- Author
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Creutzig, F., Simoes, S.G., Leipold, Sina, Berrill, P., Azevedo, I., Edelenbosch, O., Fishman, T., Haberl, H., Hertwich, E., Krey, V., Lima, A.T., Makov, T., Mastrucci, A., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Nachtigall, F., Pauliuk, S., Silva, M., Verdolini, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F., Wiedenhofer, D., Wilson, C., Creutzig, F., Simoes, S.G., Leipold, Sina, Berrill, P., Azevedo, I., Edelenbosch, O., Fishman, T., Haberl, H., Hertwich, E., Krey, V., Lima, A.T., Makov, T., Mastrucci, A., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Nachtigall, F., Pauliuk, S., Silva, M., Verdolini, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F., Wiedenhofer, D., and Wilson, C.
- Abstract
As fossil fuels are phased out in favour of renewable energy, electric cars and other low-carbon technologies, the future clean energy system is likely to require less overall mining than the current fossil-fuelled system. However, material extraction and waste flows, new infrastructure development, land-use change, and the provision of new types of goods and services associated with decarbonization will produce social and environmental pressures at localized to regional scales. Demand-side solutions can achieve the important outcome of reducing both the scale of the climate challenge and material resource requirements. Interdisciplinary systems modelling and analysis are needed to identify opportunities and trade-offs for demand-led mitigation strategies that explicitly consider planetary boundaries associated with Earth’s material resources.
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- 2024
3. Unpacking the path toward a sustainable circular economy through industrial ecology
- Author
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Fröhling, M., Aoki-Suzuki, C., Bakshi, B., Leipold, Sina, Tong, X., Wang, H.S.-H., Wiedenhofer, D., Fröhling, M., Aoki-Suzuki, C., Bakshi, B., Leipold, Sina, Tong, X., Wang, H.S.-H., and Wiedenhofer, D.
- Abstract
no abstract
- Published
- 2024
4. High with low: Harnessing the power of demand-side solutions for high wellbeing with low energy and material demand
- Author
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Sugiyama, M., Wilson, C., Wiedenhofer, D., Boza-Kiss, B., Cao, T., Chatterjee, J.S., Chatterjee, S., Hara, T., Hayashi, A., Ju, Y., Krey, V., Godoy León, M.F., Martinez, L., Masanet, E., Mastrucci, A., Min, J., Niamir, L., Pelz, S., Roy, J., Saheb, Y., Schaeffer, R., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., van Ruijven, B., Shimoda, Y., Verdolini, E., Wiese, F., Yamaguchi, Y., Zell-Ziegler, C., Zimm, C., Sugiyama, M., Wilson, C., Wiedenhofer, D., Boza-Kiss, B., Cao, T., Chatterjee, J.S., Chatterjee, S., Hara, T., Hayashi, A., Ju, Y., Krey, V., Godoy León, M.F., Martinez, L., Masanet, E., Mastrucci, A., Min, J., Niamir, L., Pelz, S., Roy, J., Saheb, Y., Schaeffer, R., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., van Ruijven, B., Shimoda, Y., Verdolini, E., Wiese, F., Yamaguchi, Y., Zell-Ziegler, C., and Zimm, C.
- Abstract
The authors are all devoted energy system and sustainability transformation scholars, who collaborate regularly and actively at global and local levels to advance the knowledge space of demand-side solutions and policies. They are members of a growing bottom-up initiative, the Energy Demand Changes Induced by Technological and Social Innovations (EDITS) network (https://iiasa.ac.at/projects/edits), which builds on various research disciplines to facilitate advances in modeling, data compilation, and analysis of the scope and breadth of the potential contributions of demand-side solutions for climate change mitigation, improved wellbeing for all, and sustainability, complementing supply-side solutions for decarbonizing the energy and material systems.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. MESSAGEix-Materials v1.0.0: Representation of Material Flows and Stocks in an Integrated Assessment Model
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Ünlü, G., Maczek, F., Min, J., Frank, S., Glatter, F., Kishimoto, P.N., Streeck, J., Eisenmenger, N., Krey, V., Wiedenhofer, D., Ünlü, G., Maczek, F., Min, J., Frank, S., Glatter, F., Kishimoto, P.N., Streeck, J., Eisenmenger, N., Krey, V., and Wiedenhofer, D.
- Abstract
Extracting and processing raw materials into products in industry is a substantial source of CO2 emissions, which currently lacks process detail in many integrated assessment models (IAMs). To broaden the space of climate change mitigation options and to include circular economy and material efficiency measures in IAM scenario analysis, we developed MESSAGEix-Materials module representing material flows and stocks within the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM IAM framework. With the development of MESSAGEix-Materials, we provide a fully open-source model that can assess different industry decarbonization options under various climate targets for the most energy and emissions-intensive industries: Aluminium, iron and steel, cement, and petrochemicals. We illustrate the model’s operation with a baseline and mitigation (2 degrees) scenario setup and validate base year results for 2020 against historical datasets. We also discuss the industry decarbonization pathways and material stocks of the electricity generation technologies resulting from the new model features.
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- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Spatial patterns of built structures co-determine nations level of resource demand
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Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Duro, JA; Perez-Laborda, A; Löw, M; Matej, S; Plank, B; Krausmann, F; Wiedenhofer, D; Haberl, H, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, and Duro, JA; Perez-Laborda, A; Löw, M; Matej, S; Plank, B; Krausmann, F; Wiedenhofer, D; Haberl, H
- Abstract
Societies’ use of material resources is increasingly recognized as a key factor behind sustainability problems. The mass of materials used per capita and year differs substantially between countries. However, a limited range of variables (mostly per-capita gross domestic product [GDP]) were analyzed to explain this variation. Spatial patterns of cities influence their resource use, but the role of patterns of settlements and infrastructures as co-determinants of national-level material use is unknown, mainly due to lacking data to investigate their effects at that scale. Here we start closing this gap by systematically analyzing a broad set of potential determinants of national per-capita material demand, including built structures. Material demand is represented by both production- and consumption-based indicators. Among its potential determinants, we analyze eight novel indicators representing extent and spatial patterns of settlements and transport infrastructures in each country, along with GDP and other indicators considered so far. Analyzing 123 countries inhabited by 91% of the world population and accounting for 92% of world GDP, we show that built structures strongly co-determine resource use. Indicators of extent and spatial patterns of built structures have substantial additional explanatory power beyond GDP and other conventional indicators for both production- and consumption-based material flow indicators. The area of built-up land per capita emerges as the strongest predictor, but several other indicators representing built structures are also highly relevant. Limiting built-up land and designing spatial patterns of built structures hence deserve attention in attempts to reduce societies’ resource throughput.
- Published
- 2024
7. Lessons, narratives, and research directions for a sustainable circular economy
- Author
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Leipold, S, Petit-Boix, A, Luo, A, Helander, H, Simoens, M, Ashton, WS, Babbitt, CW, Bala, A, Bening, CR, Birkved, M, Blomsma, F, Boks, C, Boldrin, A, Deutz, P, Domenech, T, Ferronato, N, Gallego-Schmid, A, Giurco, D, Hobson, K, Husgafvel, R, Isenhour, C, Kriipsalu, M, Masi, D, Mendoza, JMF, Milios, L, Niero, M, Pant, D, Parajuly, K, Pauliuk, S, Pieroni, MPP, Richter, JL, Saidani, M, Smol, M, Peiró, LT, van Ewijk, S, Vermeulen, WJV, Wiedenhofer, D, Xue, B, Leipold, S, Petit-Boix, A, Luo, A, Helander, H, Simoens, M, Ashton, WS, Babbitt, CW, Bala, A, Bening, CR, Birkved, M, Blomsma, F, Boks, C, Boldrin, A, Deutz, P, Domenech, T, Ferronato, N, Gallego-Schmid, A, Giurco, D, Hobson, K, Husgafvel, R, Isenhour, C, Kriipsalu, M, Masi, D, Mendoza, JMF, Milios, L, Niero, M, Pant, D, Parajuly, K, Pauliuk, S, Pieroni, MPP, Richter, JL, Saidani, M, Smol, M, Peiró, LT, van Ewijk, S, Vermeulen, WJV, Wiedenhofer, D, and Xue, B
- Abstract
The current enthusiasm for the circular economy (CE) offers a unique opportunity to advance the impact of research on sustainability transitions. Diverse interpretations of CE by scholars, however, produce partly opposing assessments of its potential benefits, which can hinder progress. Here, we synthesize policy-relevant lessons and research directions for a sustainable CE and identify three narratives—optimist, reformist, and skeptical—that underpin the ambiguity in CE assessments. Based on 54 key CE scholars’ insights, we identify three research needs: the articulation and discussion of ontologically distinct CE narratives; bridging of technical, managerial, socio-economic, environmental, and political CE perspectives; and critical assessment of opportunities and limits of CE science–policy interactions. Our findings offer practical guidance for scholars to engage reflexively with the rapid expansion of CE knowledge, identify and pursue high-impact research directions, and communicate more effectively with practitioners and policymakers.
- Published
- 2023
8. Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings: Current State and Research Needs
- Author
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Mastrucci, A., Niamir, L., Boza-Kiss, B., Bento, N., Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Pachauri, S., Wilson, C., Chatterjee, S., Creutzig, F., Dukkipati, S., Feng, W., Grubler, A., Jupesta, J., Kumar, P., Marangoni, G., Saheb, Y., Shimoda, Y., Shoai-Tehrani, B., Yamaguchi, Y., van Ruijven, B., Mastrucci, A., Niamir, L., Boza-Kiss, B., Bento, N., Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Pachauri, S., Wilson, C., Chatterjee, S., Creutzig, F., Dukkipati, S., Feng, W., Grubler, A., Jupesta, J., Kumar, P., Marangoni, G., Saheb, Y., Shimoda, Y., Shoai-Tehrani, B., Yamaguchi, Y., and van Ruijven, B.
- Abstract
Buildings are key in supporting human activities and well-being by providing shelter and other important services to their users. Buildings are, however, also responsible for major energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their life cycle. Improving the quality of services provided by buildings while reaching low energy demand (LED) levels is crucial for climate and sustainability targets. Building sector models have become essential tools for decision support on strategies to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions. Yet current models have significant limitations in their ability to assess the transformations required for LED. We review building sector models ranging from the subnational to the global scale to identify best practices and critical gaps in representing transformations toward LED futures. We focus on three key dimensions of intervention (socio-behavioral, infrastructural, and technological), three megatrends (digitalization, sharing economy, and circular economy), and decent living standards. This review recommends the model developments needed to better assess LED transformations in buildings and support decision-making toward sustainability targets.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Material Cycles, Industry and Service Provisioning: A Review of Low Energy and Material Demand Modelling and Scenarios
- Author
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Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Wiese, F., Verdolini, E., Mastrucci, A., Ju, Y., Boza-Kiss, B., Min, J., Norman, J.B., Wieland, H., Bento, N., Godoy Leon, M., Magalar, L., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Hayashi, A., Jupesta, J., Ünlü, G., Niamir, L., Cao, T., Zanon-Zotin, M., Plank, B., Masanet, E., Krey, V., Akimoto, K., van Ruijven, B., Pauliuk, S., Wiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Wiese, F., Verdolini, E., Mastrucci, A., Ju, Y., Boza-Kiss, B., Min, J., Norman, J.B., Wieland, H., Bento, N., Godoy Leon, M., Magalar, L., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Hayashi, A., Jupesta, J., Ünlü, G., Niamir, L., Cao, T., Zanon-Zotin, M., Plank, B., Masanet, E., Krey, V., Akimoto, K., van Ruijven, B., and Pauliuk, S.
- Abstract
Developing transformative pathways for industry’s compliance with international climate targets requires model-based insights on how supply- and demand-side measures affect industry, material cycles, global supply chains, socio-economic activities and service provisioning supporting societal wellbeing. Herein, we review the recent literature modelling the industrial system for Low Energy and Materials Demand (LEMD) futures, resulting in lowered environmental pressures without relying on negative emissions. We identify 77 innovative studies drawing on nine distinct industry modelling traditions and critically assess system definitions and scopes, biophysical and thermodynamic consistency, granularity and heterogeneity, and operationalization of demand and service provision. We find large potentials of combined supply- and demand-side measures to reduce current economy-wide material use by -56%, energy use by -40 to -60%, and GHG emissions by -70% to net-zero. We call for strengthening interdisciplinary collaborations between industry modelling traditions and demand-side research, to produce more insightful scenarios and discuss research challenges and recommendations.
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- 2023
10. The 'High-with-Low' Scenario Narrative: Key Themes, Cross-Cutting Linkages, and Implications for Modelling
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Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Nemet, G., Pachauri, S., Pauliuk, S., Wiedenhofer, D., Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Nemet, G., Pachauri, S., Pauliuk, S., and Wiedenhofer, D.
- Abstract
We define a global ‘High-with-Low’ scenario that delivers high wellbeing with low energy and material resource consumption while limiting global warming in line with Paris Agreement targets. The High-with-Low scenario comprises a rich thematic narrative and a quantitative framework for interpreting the narrative using systems and sectoral modelling tools at different scales. The three central themes of the High-with-Low scenario are decent living standards for all, innovation and granularity, and digitalization. Inter-linkages between these themes emphasize drivers of change towards a High-with-Low future that include decentralization, adaptability to local needs, accelerated diffusion through peer and network effects, and the management of complexity on shared infrastructures. However, the direction of change is not deterministic. The High-with-Low scenario envisages a set of specific and strong governance institutions for coordinating a highly distributed global sustainability transition. To help develop and enrich these narrative aspects, we also set out some guidelines and parameterisations for quantitative model interpretations of the High-with-Low scenario. These guidelines are not universally prescriptive but rather define a set of quantitative reference points against which model inputs, processes, and outputs can be iteratively tested for consistency. In particular, we emphasize the overall development pattern of the High-with-Low scenario as one of conditional convergence in which energy services for well-being increase substantially in the Global South catching up to levels maintained in the Global North, while associated resource use tends to converge, combining a contraction in the Global North with relatively modest increases in the Global South.
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- 2023
11. Built structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO2 emissions across countries
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Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Haberl, H; Löw, M; Perez-Laborda, A; Matej, S; Plank, B; Wiedenhofer, D; Creutzig, F; Erb, KH; Duro, JA, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, and Haberl, H; Löw, M; Perez-Laborda, A; Matej, S; Plank, B; Wiedenhofer, D; Creutzig, F; Erb, KH; Duro, JA
- Abstract
Built structures, i.e. the patterns of settlements and transport infrastructures, are known to influence per-capita energy demand and CO2 emissions at the urban level. At the national level, the role of built structures is seldom considered due to poor data availability. Instead, other potential determinants of energy demand and CO2 emissions, primarily GDP, are more frequently assessed. We present a set of national-level indicators to characterize patterns of built structures. We quantify these indicators for 113 countries and statistically analyze the results along with final energy use and territorial CO2 emissions, as well as factors commonly included in national-level analyses of determinants of energy use and emissions. We find that these indicators are about equally important for predicting energy demand and CO2 emissions as GDP and other conventional factors. The area of built-up land per capita is the most important predictor, second only to the effect of GDP.© 2023. The Author(s).
- Published
- 2023
12. Lessons, narratives, and research directions for a sustainable circular economy
- Author
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Leipold, Sina, Petit-Boix, A., Luo, Anran, Helander, H., Simoens, M., Ashton, W.S., Babbitt, C.W., Bala, A., Bening, C.R., Birkved, M., Blomsma, F., Boks, C., Boldrin, A., Deutz, P., Domenech, T., Ferronato, N., Gallego-Schmid, A., Giurco, D., Hobson, K., Husgafvel, R., Isenhour, C., Kriipsalu, M., Masi, D., Mendoza, J.M.F., Milios, L., Niero, M., Pant, D., Parajuly, K., Pauliuk, S., Pieroni, M.P.P., Richter, J.L., Saidani, M., Smol, M., Talens Peiró, L., van Ewijk, S., Vermeulen, W.J.V., Wiedenhofer, D., Xue, B., Leipold, Sina, Petit-Boix, A., Luo, Anran, Helander, H., Simoens, M., Ashton, W.S., Babbitt, C.W., Bala, A., Bening, C.R., Birkved, M., Blomsma, F., Boks, C., Boldrin, A., Deutz, P., Domenech, T., Ferronato, N., Gallego-Schmid, A., Giurco, D., Hobson, K., Husgafvel, R., Isenhour, C., Kriipsalu, M., Masi, D., Mendoza, J.M.F., Milios, L., Niero, M., Pant, D., Parajuly, K., Pauliuk, S., Pieroni, M.P.P., Richter, J.L., Saidani, M., Smol, M., Talens Peiró, L., van Ewijk, S., Vermeulen, W.J.V., Wiedenhofer, D., and Xue, B.
- Abstract
The current enthusiasm for circular economy (CE) offers a unique opportunity to advance the impact of research on sustainability transitions. Diverse interpretations of CE by scholars, however, produce partly opposing assessments of its potential benefits, which can hinder progress. Here, we synthesize policy-relevant lessons and research directions for a sustainable CE and identify three narratives – optimist, reformist and skeptical – that underpin the ambiguity in CE assessments. Based on 54 key CE scholars’ insights, we identify three research needs: the articulation and discussion of ontologically distinct CE narratives; bridging of technical, managerial, socio-economic, environmental and political CE perspectives; and critical assessment of opportunities and limits of CE science-policy interactions. Our findings offer practical guidance for scholars to engage reflexively with the rapid expansion of CE knowledge, identify and pursue high-impact research directions, and communicate more effectively with practitioners and policymakers.
- Published
- 2022
13. How much infrastructure is required to support decent mobility for all? An exploratory assessment
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Virág, D., Wiedenhofer, D., Baumgart, A., Matej, S., Krausmann, F., Min, J., Rao, N.D., Haberl, H., Virág, D., Wiedenhofer, D., Baumgart, A., Matej, S., Krausmann, F., Min, J., Rao, N.D., and Haberl, H.
- Abstract
Decarbonizing transport is crucial for achieving climate targets, which is challenging because mobility is growing rapidly. Personal mobility is a key societal service and basic need, but currently not available to everyone with sufficient quality and quantity. The basis for mobility and accessibility of desired destinations is infrastructure, but its build-up and maintenance require a substantial fraction of global resource use. The question arises, how much mobility and how much infrastructure are required to deliver decent, sustainable mobility. We explore the relations between mobility levels, mobility infrastructure and well-being. We synthesize definitions of decent mobility and assess mobility measurements and provide a novel estimate of mobility infrastructure stocks for 172 countries in the year ~2021. We then explore the relations between infrastructure, travelled distances, accessibility, economic activity and several ‘beyond GDP’ well-being indicators. We find that travelled distances and mobility infrastructure levels are significantly correlated. Above levels of ~92–207 t/cap of mobility infrastructure no further significant gains in well-being can be expected from a further increase of infrastructure. We conclude that high mobility in terms of distances travelled as well as buildi
- Published
- 2022
14. Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100 000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: A big data approach to demand-side mitigation *
- Author
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Creutzig, F., Callaghan, M., Ramakrishnan, A., Javaid, A., Niamir, L., Minx, J., Müller-Hansen, F., Sovacool, B., Afroz, Z., Andor, M., Antal, M., Court, V., Das, N., Díaz-José, J., Döbbe, F., Figueroa, M.J., Gouldson, A., Haberl, H., Hook, A., Ivanova, D., Lamb, W.F., Maïzi, N., Mata, É., Nielsen, K.S., Onyige, C.D., Reisch, L.A., Roy, J., Scheelbeek, P., Sethi, M., Some, S., Sorrell, S., Tessier, M., Urmee, T., Virág, D., Wan, C., Wiedenhofer, D., Wilson, C., Creutzig, F., Callaghan, M., Ramakrishnan, A., Javaid, A., Niamir, L., Minx, J., Müller-Hansen, F., Sovacool, B., Afroz, Z., Andor, M., Antal, M., Court, V., Das, N., Díaz-José, J., Döbbe, F., Figueroa, M.J., Gouldson, A., Haberl, H., Hook, A., Ivanova, D., Lamb, W.F., Maïzi, N., Mata, É., Nielsen, K.S., Onyige, C.D., Reisch, L.A., Roy, J., Scheelbeek, P., Sethi, M., Some, S., Sorrell, S., Tessier, M., Urmee, T., Virág, D., Wan, C., Wiedenhofer, D., and Wilson, C.
- Abstract
As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert—machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for in
- Published
- 2021
15. A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
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Lamb, WF, Wiedmann, T, Pongratz, J, Andrew, R, Crippa, M, Olivier, JGJ, Wiedenhofer, D, Mattioli, G, Khourdajie, AA, House, J, Pachauri, S, Figueroa, M, Saheb, Y, Slade, R, Hubacek, K, Sun, L, Ribeiro, SK, Khennas, S, De La Rue Du Can, S, Chapungu, L, Davis, SJ, Bashmakov, I, Dai, H, Dhakal, S, Tan, X, Geng, Y, Gu, B, Minx, J, Lamb, WF, Wiedmann, T, Pongratz, J, Andrew, R, Crippa, M, Olivier, JGJ, Wiedenhofer, D, Mattioli, G, Khourdajie, AA, House, J, Pachauri, S, Figueroa, M, Saheb, Y, Slade, R, Hubacek, K, Sun, L, Ribeiro, SK, Khennas, S, De La Rue Du Can, S, Chapungu, L, Davis, SJ, Bashmakov, I, Dai, H, Dhakal, S, Tan, X, Geng, Y, Gu, B, and Minx, J
- Abstract
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
- Published
- 2021
16. Reviewing the scope and thematic focus of 100 000 publications on energy consumption, services and social aspects of climate change: A big data approach to demand-side mitigation
- Author
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Creutzig, F, Callaghan, M, Ramakrishnan, A, Javaid, A, Niamir, L, Minx, J, Müller-Hansen, F, Sovacool, B, Afroz, Z, Andor, M, Antal, M, Court, V, Das, N, Díaz-José, J, Döbbe, F, Figueroa, MJ, Gouldson, A, Haberl, H, Hook, A, Ivanova, D, Lamb, WF, Maïzi, N, Mata, É, Nielsen, KS, Onyige, CD, Reisch, LA, Roy, J, Scheelbeek, P, Sethi, M, Some, S, Sorrell, S, Tessier, M, Urmee, T, Virág, D, Wan, C, Wiedenhofer, D, Wilson, C, Creutzig, F, Callaghan, M, Ramakrishnan, A, Javaid, A, Niamir, L, Minx, J, Müller-Hansen, F, Sovacool, B, Afroz, Z, Andor, M, Antal, M, Court, V, Das, N, Díaz-José, J, Döbbe, F, Figueroa, MJ, Gouldson, A, Haberl, H, Hook, A, Ivanova, D, Lamb, WF, Maïzi, N, Mata, É, Nielsen, KS, Onyige, CD, Reisch, LA, Roy, J, Scheelbeek, P, Sethi, M, Some, S, Sorrell, S, Tessier, M, Urmee, T, Virág, D, Wan, C, Wiedenhofer, D, and Wilson, C
- Abstract
As current action remains insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement let alone to stabilize the climate, there is increasing hope that solutions related to demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation can close the gap. However, given these topics are not investigated by a single epistemic community, the literature base underpinning the associated research continues to be undefined. Here, we aim to delineate a plausible body of literature capturing a comprehensive spectrum of demand, services and social aspects of climate change mitigation. As method we use a novel double-stacked expert-machine learning research architecture and expert evaluation to develop a typology and map key messages relevant for climate change mitigation within this body of literature. First, relying on the official key words provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by governments (across 17 queries), and on specific investigations of domain experts (27 queries), we identify 121 165 non-unique and 99 065 unique academic publications covering issues relevant for demand-side mitigation. Second, we identify a literature typology with four key clusters: policy, housing, mobility, and food/consumption. Third, we systematically extract key content-based insights finding that the housing literature emphasizes social and collective action, whereas the food/consumption literatures highlight behavioral change, but insights also demonstrate the dynamic relationship between behavioral change and social norms. All clusters point to the possibility of improved public health as a result of demand-side solutions. The centrality of the policy cluster suggests that political actions are what bring the different specific approaches together. Fourth, by mapping the underlying epistemic communities we find that researchers are already highly interconnected, glued together by common interests in sustainability and energy demand. We conclude by outlining avenues for in
- Published
- 2021
17. A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
- Author
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Lamb, W.F., Wiedmann, T., Pongratz, J., Andrew, R., Crippa, M., Olivier, J.G.J., Wiedenhofer, D., Mattioli, G., Al Khourdajie, A., House, J., Pachauri, S., Figueroa, M., Saheb, Y., Slade, R., Hubacek, K., Sun, L., Ribeiro, S.K., Khennas, S., de la Rue du Can, S., Chapungu, L., Davis, S.J., Bashmakov, I., Dai, H., Dhakal, S., Tan, X., Geng, Y., Gu, B., Minx, J.C., Lamb, W.F., Wiedmann, T., Pongratz, J., Andrew, R., Crippa, M., Olivier, J.G.J., Wiedenhofer, D., Mattioli, G., Al Khourdajie, A., House, J., Pachauri, S., Figueroa, M., Saheb, Y., Slade, R., Hubacek, K., Sun, L., Ribeiro, S.K., Khennas, S., de la Rue du Can, S., Chapungu, L., Davis, S.J., Bashmakov, I., Dai, H., Dhakal, S., Tan, X., Geng, Y., Gu, B., and Minx, J.C.
- Abstract
Global greenhouse gas emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of greenhouse gas emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Both the literature and data emphasize limited progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
- Published
- 2021
18. Consumption-based material flow indicators: comparing six ways of calculating the Austrian raw material consumption providing six results (corrigendum)
- Author
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Eisenmenger, N., Wiedenhofer, D., Schaffartzik, A., Giljum, S., Bruckner, M., Schandl, H., Wiedmann, T.O., Lenzen, M., Tukker, A., and Koning, A. de
- Published
- 2016
19. Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25
- Author
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Wiedenhofer, D, Steinberger, JK, Eisenmenger, N, and Haas, W
- Abstract
Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in-use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business-as-usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the EuropeanWaste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals.
- Published
- 2015
20. Is there a 1970s syndrome? Analyzing structural breaks in the metabolism of industrial economies
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Wiedenhofer, D., Rovenskaya, E., Haas, W., Krausmann, F., Pallua, I., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Wiedenhofer, D., Rovenskaya, E., Haas, W., Krausmann, F., Pallua, I., and Fischer-Kowalski, M.
- Abstract
In this paper we focus on long-term socio-ecological transitions from the agrarian to the industrial metabolic regime. Statistical analysis is used to identify structural breaks in the development of energy use in the second half of the 20th century. A stabilization of per capita energy and resource use in most high-income countries was reached in the early 1970s, after a period of accelerated growth of resource use since the end of World War II. Most empirical turns in trend coincide with the oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. This stabilization could offer lessons for a future sustainability transition.
- Published
- 2013
21. Green and blue infrastructure as model system for emissions of technology-critical elements.
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Trimmel S, Spörl P, Haluza D, Lashin N, Meisel TC, Pitha U, Prohaska T, Puschenreiter M, Rückert E, Spangl B, Wiedenhofer D, and Irrgeher J
- Abstract
Over the recent decades, technological advancements have led to a rise in the use of so-called technology-critical elements (TCEs). Environmental monitoring of TCEs forms the base to assess whether this leads to increased anthropogenic release and to public health implications. This study employs an exploratory approach to investigate the distribution of the TCEs Li, Be, V, Ga, Ge, Nb, Sb, Te, Ta, Tl, Bi and the REYs (rare-earth elements including yttrium) in urban aerosol in the city of Vienna, Austria. Leaf samples (n = 292) from 8 plant species and two green facades and water samples (n = 18) from the Wienfluss river were examined using inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry (ICP-MS/MS). Surface dust contributions were assessed by washing one replicate of each leaf sample and analysing the washing water (n = 146). The impacts of sampling month, plant species and storey level on elemental distribution were assessed by statistical tools and generative deep neural network modelling. Higher TCE levels, including Li, V, Ga, Ge, Tl, Bi, and the REYs, were found in the winter months, likely due to the use of de-icing materials and fossil fuel combustion. A. millefolium and S. heufleriana displayed the highest levels of Li and Ge, respectively. In addition, increased elemental accumulation at lower storeys was observed, including Be, Sb, Bi and the REYs, indicating greater atmospheric dust deposition and recirculation closer to ground level. The results suggest a broad association of TCE levels with urban dust. This study enhances the current understanding of TCE distribution in urban settings and underscores the importance of their inclusion in pollution monitoring. It highlights the complex interplay of human activities, urban infrastructure, and environmental factors, offering valuable insights for managing urban environmental health risks and underlining the need for comprehensive urban ecosystem studies., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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22. Unveiling patterns in human dominated landscapes through mapping the mass of US built structures.
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Frantz D, Schug F, Wiedenhofer D, Baumgart A, Virág D, Cooper S, Gómez-Medina C, Lehmann F, Udelhoven T, van der Linden S, Hostert P, and Haberl H
- Subjects
- Humans, Biomass, Construction Materials, Plants
- Abstract
Built structures increasingly dominate the Earth's landscapes; their surging mass is currently overtaking global biomass. We here assess built structures in the conterminous US by quantifying the mass of 14 stock-building materials in eight building types and nine types of mobility infrastructures. Our high-resolution maps reveal that built structures have become 2.6 times heavier than all plant biomass across the country and that most inhabited areas are mass-dominated by buildings or infrastructure. We analyze determinants of the material intensity and show that densely built settlements have substantially lower per-capita material stocks, while highest intensities are found in sparsely populated regions due to ubiquitous infrastructures. Out-migration aggravates already high intensities in rural areas as people leave while built structures remain - highlighting that quantifying the distribution of built-up mass at high resolution is an essential contribution to understanding the biophysical basis of societies, and to inform strategies to design more resource-efficient settlements and a sustainable circular economy., (© 2023. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2023
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23. High-Resolution Mapping of Material Stocks in Belgian Road Infrastructure: Material Efficiency Patterns, Material Recycling Potentials, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Opportunities.
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Wang Z, Wiedenhofer D, Stephan A, Perrotti D, Van den Bergh W, and Cao Z
- Subjects
- Belgium, Recycling, Built Environment, Greenhouse Effect, Greenhouse Gases
- Abstract
Road infrastructure is an integral part of built environment stocks, as it delivers essential social and economic services. While previous work has assessed material stocks, flows, and embodied emissions, spatially refined mapping of materials accumulated in road infrastructure can highlight hitherto underappreciated synergies between improved spatial planning, material stock efficiency, and urban mining. In this study, we mapped the materials stocked in road infrastructure across Belgium, explored the patterns of material stock efficiency and the recyclability of end-of-life road materials, and examined the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of improving stock efficiency and recycling. We assembled data scattered across various governmental sources and crowdsourced platforms and developed a comprehensive database to warehouse locational information on road typology, layer geometry and thickness, material characteristics, traffic volume, climatic conditions, and soil conditions. Our results reveal a strong but nonlinear correlation between material stock efficiency and population density, indicating that spatial planning can reduce the required road stocks and associated GHG emissions. Urban mining potentials in road infrastructure hinge on multiple factors, such as the proximity to recycling facilities and the degradation of pavements during use. Our counterfactual analysis shows that urban road planning and reusing recycled asphalt can cut GHG emissions by up to 53 and 70%, respectively. Therefore, material-efficient road planning and improved material recycling can help realize circular economy potentials and mitigate GHG emissions moving forward.
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- 2023
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24. Built structures influence patterns of energy demand and CO 2 emissions across countries.
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Haberl H, Löw M, Perez-Laborda A, Matej S, Plank B, Wiedenhofer D, Creutzig F, Erb KH, and Duro JA
- Abstract
Built structures, i.e. the patterns of settlements and transport infrastructures, are known to influence per-capita energy demand and CO
2 emissions at the urban level. At the national level, the role of built structures is seldom considered due to poor data availability. Instead, other potential determinants of energy demand and CO2 emissions, primarily GDP, are more frequently assessed. We present a set of national-level indicators to characterize patterns of built structures. We quantify these indicators for 113 countries and statistically analyze the results along with final energy use and territorial CO2 emissions, as well as factors commonly included in national-level analyses of determinants of energy use and emissions. We find that these indicators are about equally important for predicting energy demand and CO2 emissions as GDP and other conventional factors. The area of built-up land per capita is the most important predictor, second only to the effect of GDP., (© 2023. The Author(s).)- Published
- 2023
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25. High-resolution data and maps of material stock, population, and employment in Austria from 1985 to 2018.
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Schug F, Wiedenhofer D, Haberl H, Frantz D, Virág D, van der Linden S, and Hostert P
- Abstract
High-resolution maps of material stocks in buildings and infrastructures are of key importance for studies of societal resource use (social metabolism, circular economy, secondary resource potentials) as well as for transport studies and land system science. So far, such maps were only available for specific years but not in time series. Even for single years, data covering entire countries with high resolution, or using remote-sensing data are rare. Instead, they often have local extent (e.g., [1]), are lower resolution (e.g., [2]), or are based on other geospatial data (e.g., [3]). We here present data on the material stocks in three types of buildings (commercial and industrial, single- and multifamily houses) and three types of infrastructures (roads, railways, other infrastructures) for a 33-year time series for Austria at a spatial resolution of 30 m. The article also presents data on population and employment in Austria for the same time period, at the same spatial resolution. Data were derived with the same method applied in a recent study for Germany [4]., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2023
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26. Compilation of an economy-wide material flow database for 14 stock-building materials in 177 countries from 1900 to 2016.
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Plank B, Streeck J, Virág D, Krausmann F, Haberl H, and Wiedenhofer D
- Abstract
International datasets on economy-wide material flows currently fail to comprehensively cover the quantitatively most important materials and countries, to provide centennial coverage and to differentiate between processing stages. These data gaps hamper research and policy on resource use. Herein, we present and document the data processing and compilation procedures applied to develop a novel economy-wide database of primary stock-building material flows systematically covering 177 countries from 1900- 2016. The main methodological novelty is the consistent integration of material flow accounting and analysis principles and thereby addresses limitations in terms of transparency, data quality and uncertainty treatment. The database systematically discerns four processing stages from raw materials extraction, to processing of raw and semi-finished products, to manufacturing of stock-building materials. Included materials are concrete, asphalt, bricks, timber products, paper, iron & steel, aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, other metals, plastics, container and flat glass. The database is compiled using international and national data sources, using a transparent and consistent 10-step procedure, as well as a systematic uncertainty assessment. Apart from a detailed documentation of the data compilation, validations of the database using data from previous studies and additional uncertainty estimates are presented. • Systematically compiled historical database of primary stock-building material flows for 177 countries. • Consistent integration of economy-wide material flow accounting and detailed material flow analysis principles. • Methodological enhancements in terms of transparency, data quality and uncertainty treatment., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2022
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27. High-Resolution Maps of Material Stocks in Buildings and Infrastructures in Austria and Germany.
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Haberl H, Wiedenhofer D, Schug F, Frantz D, Virág D, Plutzar C, Gruhler K, Lederer J, Schiller G, Fishman T, Lanau M, Gattringer A, Kemper T, Liu G, Tanikawa H, van der Linden S, and Hostert P
- Subjects
- Austria, Germany
- Abstract
The dynamics of societal material stocks such as buildings and infrastructures and their spatial patterns drive surging resource use and emissions. Two main types of data are currently used to map stocks, night-time lights (NTL) from Earth-observing (EO) satellites and cadastral information. We present an alternative approach for broad-scale material stock mapping based on freely available high-resolution EO imagery and OpenStreetMap data. Maps of built-up surface area, building height, and building types were derived from optical Sentinel-2 and radar Sentinel-1 satellite data to map patterns of material stocks for Austria and Germany. Using material intensity factors, we calculated the mass of different types of buildings and infrastructures, distinguishing eight types of materials, at 10 m spatial resolution. The total mass of buildings and infrastructures in 2018 amounted to ∼5 Gt in Austria and ∼38 Gt in Germany (AT: ∼540 t/cap, DE: ∼450 t/cap). Cross-checks with independent data sources at various scales suggested that the method may yield more complete results than other data sources but could not rule out possible overestimations. The method yields thematic differentiations not possible with NTL, avoids the use of costly cadastral data, and is suitable for mapping larger areas and tracing trends over time.
- Published
- 2021
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28. The transformation of provisioning systems from an integrated perspective of social metabolism and political economy: a conceptual framework.
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Schaffartzik A, Pichler M, Pineault E, Wiedenhofer D, Gross R, and Haberl H
- Abstract
Energy, food, or mobility can be conceptualized as provisioning systems which are decisive to sustainability transformations in how they shape resource use and because of emissions resulting from them. To curb environmental pressures and improve societal well-being, fundamental changes to existing provisioning systems are necessary. In this article, we propose that provisioning systems be conceptualized as featuring integrated socio-metabolic and political-economic dimensions. In socio-metabolic terms, material stocks-buildings, infrastructures, and machines, for example-are key components of provisioning systems and transform flows of energy and materials into goods and services. In political-economic terms, provisioning systems are formed by actors, institutions, and capital. We loosely identify and closely analyze, from socio-metabolic and political-economic perspectives, five phases along which provisioning systems are shaped and in which specific opportunities for interventions exist. Relying mainly on examples from the fossil-fueled electricity system, we argue that an integrated conceptualization of provisioning systems can advance understanding of these systems in two essential ways: by (1) facilitating a more encompassing perspective on current forms of provisioning as relying on capitalist regulation and on material stocks and flows and by (2) embedding provisioning systems within their historical context, making it possible to conceive of more sustainable and just forms of provisioning under (radically) altered conditions., (© The Author(s) 2021.)
- Published
- 2021
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29. Supply versus use designs of environmental extensions in input-output analysis: Conceptual and empirical implications for the case of energy.
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Wieland H, Giljum S, Eisenmenger N, Wiedenhofer D, Bruckner M, Schaffartzik A, and Owen A
- Abstract
Input-output analysis is one of the central methodological pillars of industrial ecology. However, the literature that discusses different structures of environmental extensions (EEs), that is, the scope of physical flows and their attribution to sectors in the monetary input-output table (MIOT), remains fragmented. This article investigates the conceptual and empirical implications of applying two different but frequently used designs of EEs, using the case of energy accounting, where one represents energy supply while the other energy use in the economy. We derive both extensions from an official energy supply-use dataset and apply them to the same single-region input-output (SRIO) model of Austria, thereby isolating the effect that stems from the decision for the extension design. We also crosscheck the SRIO results with energy footprints from the global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO) dataset EXIOBASE. Our results show that the ranking of footprints of final demand categories (e.g., household and export) is sensitive to the extension design and that product-level results can vary by several orders of magnitude. The GMRIO-based comparison further reveals that for a few countries the supply-extension result can be twice the size of the use-extension footprint (e.g., Australia and Norway). We propose a graph approach to provide a generalized framework to disclosing the design of EEs. We discuss the conceptual differences between the two extension designs by applying analogies to hybrid life-cycle assessment and conclude that our findings are relevant for monitoring of energy efficiency and emission reduction targets and corporate footprint accounting., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2019 The Authors. Journal of Industrial Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Yale University.)
- Published
- 2020
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30. Time Matters: The Carbon Footprint of Everyday Activities in Austria.
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Smetschka B, Wiedenhofer D, Egger C, Haselsteiner E, Moran D, and Gaube V
- Abstract
Mitigating climate change to achieve the goal of staying below 2 °C of warming requires urgent reductions of emissions. Demand-side measures mostly focus on the footprints of consumption. Analysing time use can add to understand the carbon implications of everyday life and the potentials and limitations for decarbonising consumption better. We investigate the carbon footprints of everyday activities in Austria. We linked data from the Austrian Time-use Survey and the Austrian Household Budget Survey with the Eora-MRIO for 2009-2010 in order to estimate the household carbon footprints of all time-use activities. We introduce a functional time-use perspective differentiating personal, committed, contracted and free time to investigate the average carbon intensity of activities per hour, for an average day and for the average woman and man. We find that personal time is relatively low-carbon, while household as well as leisure activities show large variation in terms of CO2e footprint/h. The traditional gendered division of labour shapes the time-use patterns of women and men, with implications for their carbon footprints. Further research analysing differences in household size, income, location and availability of infrastructure in their relation to time use is crucial to be able to assess possible pathways towards low carbon everyday life., Competing Interests: None., (© 2019 The Authors.)
- Published
- 2019
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31. Taking Stock of Built Environment Stock Studies: Progress and Prospects.
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Lanau M, Liu G, Kral U, Wiedenhofer D, Keijzer E, Yu C, and Ehlert C
- Subjects
- Cities, Humans, Industrial Development, Sustainable Growth, Built Environment, Urbanization
- Abstract
Built environment stocks (buildings and infrastructures) play multiple roles in our socio-economic metabolism: they serve as the backbone of modern societies and human well-being, drive the material cycles throughout the economy, entail temporal and spatial lock-ins on energy use and emissions, and represent an extensive reservoir of secondary materials. This review aims at providing a comprehensive and critical review of the state of the art, progress, and prospects of built environment stocks research which has boomed in the past decades. We included 249 publications published from 1985 to 2018, conducted a bibliometric analysis, and assessed the studies by key characteristics including typology of stocks (status of stock and end-use category), type of measurement (object and unit), spatial boundary and level of resolution, and temporal scope. We also highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of different estimation approaches. A comparability analysis of existing studies shows a clearly higher level of stocks per capita and per area in developed countries and cities, confirming the role of urbanization and industrialization in built environment stock growth. However, more spatially refined case studies (e.g., on developing cities and nonresidential buildings) and standardization and improvement of methodology (e.g., with geographic information system and architectural knowledge) and data (e.g., on material intensity and lifetime) would be urgently needed to reveal more robust conclusions on the patterns, drivers, and implications of built environment stocks. Such advanced knowledge on built environment stocks could foster societal and policy agendas such as urban sustainability, circular economy, climate change, and United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
- Published
- 2019
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32. Measuring Progress towards a Circular Economy: A Monitoring Framework for Economy-wide Material Loop Closing in the EU28.
- Author
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Mayer A, Haas W, Wiedenhofer D, Krausmann F, Nuss P, and Blengini GA
- Abstract
The concept of a circular economy (CE) is gaining increasing attention from policy makers, industry, and academia. There is a rapidly evolving debate on definitions, limitations, the contribution to a wider sustainability agenda, and a need for indicators to assess the effectiveness of circular economy measures at larger scales. Herein, we present a framework for a comprehensive and economy-wide biophysical assessment of a CE, utilizing and systematically linking official statistics on resource extraction and use and waste flows in a mass-balanced approach. This framework builds on the widely applied framework of economy-wide material flow accounting and expands it by integrating waste flows, recycling, and downcycled materials. We propose a comprehensive set of indicators that measure the scale and circularity of total material and waste flows and their socioeconomic and ecological loop closing. We applied this framework in the context of monitoring efforts for a CE in the European Union (EU28) for the year 2014. We found that 7.4 gigatons (Gt) of materials were processed in the EU and only 0.71 Gt of them were secondary materials. The derived input socioeconomic cycling rate of materials was therefore 9.6%. Further, of the 4.8 Gt of interim output flows, 14.8% were recycled or downcycled. Based on these findings and our first efforts in assessing sensitivity of the framework, a number of improvements are deemed necessary: improved reporting of wastes, explicit modeling of societal in-use stocks, introduction of criteria for ecological cycling, and disaggregated mass-based indicators to evaluate environmental impacts of different materials and circularity initiatives.
- Published
- 2019
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33. From resource extraction to outflows of wastes and emissions: The socioeconomic metabolism of the global economy, 1900-2015.
- Author
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Krausmann F, Lauk C, Haas W, and Wiedenhofer D
- Abstract
The size and structure of the socioeconomic metabolism are key for the planet's sustainability. In this article, we provide a consistent assessment of the development of material flows through the global economy in the period 1900-2015 using material flow accounting in combination with results from dynamic stock-flow modelling. Based on this approach, we can trace materials from extraction to their use, their accumulation in in-use stocks and finally to outflows of wastes and emissions and provide a comprehensive picture of the evolution of societies metabolism during global industrialization. This enables outlooks on inflows and outflows, which environmental policy makers require for pursuing strategies towards a more sustainable resource use. Over the whole time period, we observe a growth in global material extraction by a factor of 12 to 89 Gt/yr. A shift from materials for dissipative use to stock building materials resulted in a massive increase of in-use stocks of materials to 961 Gt in 2015. Since materials increasingly accumulate in stocks, outflows of wastes are growing at a slower pace than inputs. In 2015, outflows amounted to 58 Gt/yr, of which 35% were solid wastes and 25% emissions, the reminder being excrements, dissipative use and water vapor. Our results indicate a significant acceleration of global material flows since the beginning of the 21
st century. We show that this acceleration, which took off in 2002, was not a short-term phenomenon but continues since more than a decade. Between 2002 and 2015, global material extraction increased by 53% in spite of the 2008 economic crisis. Based on detailed data on material stocks and flows and information on their long-term historic development, we make a rough estimate of what a global convergence of metabolic patterns at the current level in industrialized countries paired with a continuation of past efficiency gains might imply for global material demand. We find that in such a scenario until 2050 average global metabolic rates double to 22 t/cap/yr and material extraction increases to around 218 Gt/yr. Overall the analysis indicates a grand challenge calling for urgent action, fostering a continuous and considerable reduction of material flows to acceptable levels.- Published
- 2018
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34. International Trade Drives Global Resource Use: A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption from 1990-2010.
- Author
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Plank B, Eisenmenger N, Schaffartzik A, and Wiedenhofer D
- Subjects
- Commerce, Internationality
- Abstract
Globalization led to an immense increase of international trade and the emergence of complex global value chains. At the same time, global resource use and pressures on the environment are increasing steadily. With these two processes in parallel, the question arises whether trade contributes positively to resource efficiency, or to the contrary is further driving resource use? In this article, the socioeconomic driving forces of increasing global raw material consumption (RMC) are investigated to assess the role of changing trade relations, extended supply chains and increasing consumption. We apply a structural decomposition analysis of changes in RMC from 1990 to 2010, utilizing the Eora multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. We find that changes in international trade patterns significantly contributed to an increase of global RMC. Wealthy developed countries play a major role in driving global RMC growth through changes in their trade structures, as they shifted production processes increasingly to less material-efficient input suppliers. Even the dramatic increase in material consumption in the emerging economies has not diminished the role of industrialized countries as drivers of global RMC growth.
- Published
- 2018
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35. Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use.
- Author
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Krausmann F, Wiedenhofer D, Lauk C, Haas W, Tanikawa H, Fishman T, Miatto A, Schandl H, and Haberl H
- Abstract
Human-made material stocks accumulating in buildings, infrastructure, and machinery play a crucial but underappreciated role in shaping the use of material and energy resources. Building, maintaining, and in particular operating in-use stocks of materials require raw materials and energy. Material stocks create long-term path-dependencies because of their longevity. Fostering a transition toward environmentally sustainable patterns of resource use requires a more complete understanding of stock-flow relations. Here we show that about half of all materials extracted globally by humans each year are used to build up or renew in-use stocks of materials. Based on a dynamic stock-flow model, we analyze stocks, inflows, and outflows of all materials and their relation to economic growth, energy use, and CO
2 emissions from 1900 to 2010. Over this period, global material stocks increased 23-fold, reaching 792 Pg (±5%) in 2010. Despite efforts to improve recycling rates, continuous stock growth precludes closing material loops; recycling still only contributes 12% of inflows to stocks. Stocks are likely to continue to grow, driven by large infrastructure and building requirements in emerging economies. A convergence of material stocks at the level of industrial countries would lead to a fourfold increase in global stocks, and CO2 emissions exceeding climate change goals. Reducing expected future increases of material and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will require decoupling of services from the stocks and flows of materials through, for example, more intensive utilization of existing stocks, longer service lifetimes, and more efficient design.- Published
- 2017
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36. Trading Land: A Review of Approaches to Accounting for Upstream Land Requirements of Traded Products.
- Author
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Schaffartzik A, Haberl H, Kastner T, Wiedenhofer D, Eisenmenger N, and Erb KH
- Abstract
Land use is recognized as a pervasive driver of environmental impacts, including climate change and biodiversity loss. Global trade leads to "telecoupling" between the land use of production and the consumption of biomass-based goods and services. Telecoupling is captured by accounts of the upstream land requirements associated with traded products, also commonly referred to as land footprints. These accounts face challenges in two main areas: (1) the allocation of land to products traded and consumed and (2) the metrics to account for differences in land quality and land-use intensity. For two main families of accounting approaches (biophysical, factor-based and environmentally extended input-output analysis), this review discusses conceptual differences and compares results for land footprints. Biophysical approaches are able to capture a large number of products and different land uses, but suffer from a truncation problem. Economic approaches solve the truncation problem, but are hampered by the limited disaggregation of sectors and products. In light of the conceptual differences, the overall similarity of results generated by both types of approaches is remarkable. Diametrically opposed results for some of the world's largest producers and consumers of biomass-based products, however, make interpretation difficult. This review aims to provide clarity on some of the underlying conceptual issues of accounting for land footprints.
- Published
- 2015
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37. Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25.
- Author
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Wiedenhofer D, Steinberger JK, Eisenmenger N, and Haas W
- Abstract
Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in-use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business-as-usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the European Waste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals.
- Published
- 2015
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