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The production of this technical modelling report demonstrates research cooperation and capacity-building between ABARES and the Centre for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS). It presents estimates of the economic impacts of some recent and hypothetical reforms to Indonesian agricultural and trade policies. These reforms were chosen in consultation with the Centre for Indonesian Policy Studies and include 1) streamlining import approval processes for agricultural products, and 2) the removal of fertiliser subsidies for Indonesian farmers. The reforms were explored using ABARES’ Global Trade and Agriculture Model (AGTAM) and were assessed against their impacts on 1) Indonesia’s food security, economic growth and income distributional effects within the country, and 2) Australia’s economy and agricultural exports.

Carryover allows water entitlement holders to transfer some or all their unused allocations into the next irrigation season. Carryover was initially introduced as a drought management tool and has been effective in helping irrigators manage variability in seasonal conditions. This study quantifies the effects carryover has on market outcomes for the southern Murray Darling Basin (sMDB) by comparing market outcomes of the current system with a hypothetical system without carryover. These include changes in the average amount of irrigation water use, allocation prices, water trade levels and economic benefits. The results also include changes in the likelihood of different outcomes, for example, the incidence of extremely high or low prices and water use. Where relevant, results are disaggregated by region or irrigation activity. Carryover allows water entitlement holders to transfer some or all their unused allocations into the next irrigation season. Carryover was initially introduced as a drought management tool and has been effective in helping irrigators manage variability in seasonal conditions. This study quantifies the effects carryover has on market outcomes for the southern Murray Darling Basin (sMDB) by comparing market outcomes of the current system with a hypothetical system without carryover. These include changes in the average amount of irrigation water use, allocation prices, water trade levels and economic benefits. The results also include changes in the likelihood of different outcomes, for example, the incidence of extremely high or low prices and water use. Where relevant, results are disaggregated by region or irrigation activity.

International trade in wood products has become increasingly important over the past 30 years. Responding to global market forces, the Australian forest sector has also become increasingly internationally focused, with trade increasing strongly. This report provides an overview of projected global consumption and production of roundwood and woodchips to 2030. It provides insights into potential changes in international markets that will affect Australia���s forestry sector. Global consumption of roundwood is likely to increase by 10% to 2.2 billion cubic metres by 2030, supported by strong economic and population growth in Asia. Similarly, woodchip consumption is also expected to increase around 40% to 350 million cubic metres by 2030. Globally, the sustainable harvest yield from existing wood fibre resources is expected to be sufficient to meet rising global consumption out to 2030, with wood prices increasing modestly at a rate of 1% annually in real terms. Large shifts towards imports of roundwood and woodchips in Asia are expected by 2030 as sustainable supplies reach capacity. It is expected that these imports will be supplied by producers in Europe and North America, increasing the amount of interregional trade in global wood markets. Despite this, roundwood production and exports from Australia and New Zealand are expected to be stable and remain constrained by the sustainable yield of existing forest resources.

Effects of bushfires and COVID-19 on the forestry and wood processing sectors

This report presents a proof of concept modelling exercise, reporting medium-term projections of the volume and value of trade in wood products based on a set of nested historical relationships between wood product categories. The traded products selected for analysis are exports of sawnwood, roundwood, woodchips and builders’ joinery, and imports of sawnwood plywood, builders’ joinery and mouldings.

This article summarises available information and evidence on the economic effects of water recovery on water prices and the irrigation sector. Economic modelling results are presented which separates these effects from other structural changes including the impacts of lower rainfall and shifts in water use to new perennial plantings over the past two decades. It also summarises water recovery progress to date and concludes with an analysis of the relative advantages and disadvantages of different recovery mechanisms such as buybacks, infrastructure upgrades and rationalisation.

This Insights report contains a brief overview of key aspects of Australia's forest and sawmilling industry and presents data on forest area, log harvest, production, consumption and trade. It also discusses changes in industry structure over time, historic and recent developments in forest policy, and future challenges the industry may face.

The Australian forest industry generates millions of tonnes of wood residues every year as a by-product of harvesting and sawmilling operations. The efficient use of harvest and sawmill residues can reduce disposal costs and create additional revenue streams, contributing to the international competitiveness and sustainability of the Australian forest and wood processing industry. This report presents estimates of the potential production and use of harvest and sawmill residues in Australia in 2050. The modelling framework builds on previous land use change modelling developed by ABARES (Burns et al. 2011) and incorporates a range of factors such harvesting, transport and processing costs; mill capacity and recovery rates; mill investment opportunities and final demand for wood products. Forest growers and managers, sawmill operators and other wood processors can use these estimates to explore potential long-term opportunities and take advantage of future wood residue availability.