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ObjectivesNeighborhood disadvantage may increase the risk of adverse health outcomes among older refugees. Yet few studies rigorously estimate the effects of place-based factors on later-life health, particularly dementia and mortality. Evidence about refugees is especially sparse.MethodsThis study leveraged a natural experiment in the form of a Danish policy (1986-1998) that dispersed refugees quasi-randomly across neighborhoods upon arrival. We used longitudinal registers allowing 30 years of follow-up among refugees aged 40+ years upon arrival in Denmark (N = 9,854). Cox models assessed the association between neighborhood disadvantage and risk of dementia and mortality. We examined heterogeneous effects by sex, age, and family size. We also examined associations among non-refugee immigrants and native-born Danes.ResultsNeighborhood disadvantage was not associated with dementia in any group. One unit increase in neighborhood disadvantage index (ranges -8 to 5.7) was associated with greater mortality risk among non-refugee immigrants (HR 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.10) and native-born Danes (HR 1.11, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.17). In contrast, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with lower mortality risk among refugees (HR 0.96, 95%CI: 0.93, 0.99). Neighborhood disadvantage remained negatively associated with mortality risk in subgroups: refugees who are female (on moderate-disadvantage compared to low-disadvantage), aged 60+, and who arrived with families.DiscussionWhile neighborhood disadvantage was associated with lower mortality risk among refugees, it was associated with greater mortality risk among non-refugee immigrants and native-born Danes, perhaps due to confounding in the latter groups or different place-based experiences by immigration status. Future research is warranted to explain the reasons for contrasting findings.

BackgroundThe Cancer Center Cessation Initiative (C3I) is a National Cancer Institute (NCI) Cancer Moonshot Program that supports NCI-designated cancer centers developing tobacco treatment programs for oncology patients who smoke. C3I-funded centers implement evidence-based programs that offer various smoking cessation treatment components (e.g., counseling, Quitline referrals, access to medications). While evaluation of implementation outcomes in C3I is guided by evaluation of reach and effectiveness (via RE-AIM), little is known about technical efficiency-i.e., how inputs (e.g., program costs, staff time) influence implementation outcomes (e.g., reach, effectiveness). This study demonstrates the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as an implementation science tool to evaluate technical efficiency of C3I programs and advance prioritization of implementation resources.MethodsDEA is a linear programming technique widely used in economics and engineering for assessing relative performance of production units. Using data from 16 C3I-funded centers reported in 2020, we applied input-oriented DEA to model technical efficiency (i.e., proportion of observed outcomes to benchmarked outcomes for given input levels). The primary models used the constant returns-to-scale specification and featured cost-per-participant, total full-time equivalent (FTE) effort, and tobacco treatment specialist effort as model inputs and reach and effectiveness (quit rates) as outcomes.ResultsIn the DEA model featuring cost-per-participant (input) and reach/effectiveness (outcomes), average constant returns-to-scale technical efficiency was 25.66 (SD = 24.56). When stratified by program characteristics, technical efficiency was higher among programs in cohort 1 (M = 29.15, SD = 28.65, n = 11) vs. cohort 2 (M = 17.99, SD = 10.16, n = 5), with point-of-care (M = 33.90, SD = 28.63, n = 9) vs. no point-of-care services (M = 15.59, SD = 14.31, n = 7), larger (M = 33.63, SD = 30.38, n = 8) vs. smaller center size (M = 17.70, SD = 15.00, n = 8), and higher (M = 29.65, SD = 30.99, n = 8) vs. lower smoking prevalence (M = 21.67, SD = 17.21, n = 8).ConclusionMost C3I programs assessed were technically inefficient relative to the most efficient center benchmark and may be improved by optimizing the use of inputs (e.g., cost-per-participant) relative to program outcomes (e.g., reach, effectiveness). This study demonstrates the appropriateness and feasibility of using DEA to evaluate the relative performance of evidence-based programs.

Using 11 years of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey data set for 2011 to 2021, we track the evolution of depression risk for U.S. states and territories before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use these data in conjunction with unemployment and COVID case data by state and by year to describe changes in the prevalence of self-reported diagnosis with a depressive disorder over time and especially after the onset of COVID in 2020 and 2021. We further investigate heterogeneous associations of depression risk by demographic characteristics. Regression analyses of these associations adjust for state-specific and period-specific factors using state and year-fixed effects. First, we find that depression risk had been increasing in the US in years preceding the pandemic. Second, we find no significant average changes in depression risk at the onset of COVID in 2020 relative to previous trends, but estimate a 3% increase in average depression risk in 2021. Importantly, we find meaningful variation in terms of changes in depression risk during the pandemic across demographic subgroups.

BackgroundWhile a 2021 federal commission recommended that the United States government levy a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax to improve diabetes prevention and control efforts, evidence is limited regarding the longer-term impacts of SSB taxes on SSB purchases, health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness. This study estimates the impact and cost-effectiveness of an SSB tax levied in Oakland, California.Methods and findingsAn SSB tax ($0.01/oz) was implemented on July 1, 2017, in Oakland. The main sample of sales data included 11,627 beverage products, 316 stores, and 172,985,767 product-store-month observations. The main analysis, a longitudinal quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, compared changes in beverage purchases at stores in Oakland versus Richmond, California (a nontaxed comparator in the same market area) before and 30 months after tax implementation (through December 31, 2019). Additional estimates used synthetic control methods with comparator stores in Los Angeles, California. Estimates were inputted into a closed-cohort microsimulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal costs (in Oakland) from 6 SSB-associated disease outcomes. In the main analysis, SSB purchases declined by 26.8% (95% CI -39.0 to -14.7, p < 0.001) in Oakland after tax implementation, compared with Richmond. There were no detectable changes in purchases of untaxed beverages or sweet snacks or purchases in border areas surrounding cities. In the synthetic control analysis, declines in SSB purchases were similar to the main analysis (-22.4%, 95% CI -41.7% to -3.0%, p = 0.04). The estimated changes in SSB purchases, when translated into declines in consumption, would be expected to accrue QALYs (94 per 10,000 residents) and significant societal cost savings (>$100,000 per 10,000 residents) over 10 years, with greater gains over a lifetime horizon. Study limitations include a lack of SSB consumption data and use of sales data primarily from chain stores.ConclusionsAn SSB tax levied in Oakland was associated with a substantial decline in volume of SSBs purchased, an association that was sustained more than 2 years after tax implementation. Our study suggests that SSB taxes are effective policy instruments for improving health and generating significant cost savings for society.

BackgroundMalaria is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Indoor residual spraying with insecticide (IRS) reduces malaria infections, yet the effects of IRS on pregnancy outcomes are not well established. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale IRS campaign on pregnancy outcomes in Eastern Uganda.MethodsBirth records (n = 59 992) were obtained from routine surveillance data at 25 health facilities from five districts that were part of the IRS campaign and six neighbouring control districts ∼27 months before and ∼24 months after the start of the campaign (January 2013-May 2017). Campaign effects on low birthweight (LBW) and stillbirth incidence were estimated using the matrix completion method (MC-NNM), a machine-learning approach to estimating potential outcomes, and compared with the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Subgroup analyses were conducted by HIV and gravidity.ResultsMC-NNM estimates indicated that the campaign was associated with a 33% reduction in LBW incidence: incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-0.93)]. DiD estimates were similar to MC-NNM [IRR = 0.69 (0.47-1.01)], despite a parallel trends violation during the pre-IRS period. The campaign was not associated with substantial reductions in stillbirth incidence [IRRMC-NNM = 0.94 (0.50-1.77)]. HIV status modified the effects of the IRS campaign on LBW [βIRSxHIV = 0.42 (0.05-0.78)], whereby HIV-negative women appeared to benefit from the campaign [IRR = 0.70 (0.61-0.81)], but not HIV-positive women [IRR = 1.12 (0.59-2.12)].ConclusionsOur results support the effectiveness of the campaign in Eastern Uganda based on its benefit to LBW prevention, though HIV-positive women may require additional interventions. The IRS campaign was not associated with a substantively lower stillbirth incidence, warranting further research.

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects Black adults in the United States. This is increasingly acknowledged to be due to inequitable distribution of health-promoting resources. One potential contributor is inequities in educational opportunities, although it is unclear what aspects of education are most salient. School racial segregation may affect cardiovascular health by increasing stress, constraining socioeconomic opportunities, and altering health behaviors. We investigated the association between school segregation and Black adults' CVD risk.Methods and findingsWe leveraged a natural experiment created by quasi-random (i.e., arbitrary) timing of local court decisions since 1991 that released school districts from court-ordered desegregation. We used the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) (1991 to 2017), linked with district-level school segregation measures and desegregation court order status. The sample included 1,053 Black participants who ever resided in school districts that were under a court desegregation order in 1991. The exposure was mean school segregation during observed schooling years. Outcomes included several adult CVD risk factors and outcomes. We fitted standard ordinary least squares (OLS) multivariable linear regression models, then conducted instrumental variables (IV) analysis, using the proportion of schooling years spent in districts that had been released from court-ordered desegregation as an instrument. We adjusted for individual- and district-level preexposure confounders, birth year, and state fixed effects. In standard linear models, school segregation was associated with a lower probability of good self-rated health (-0.05 percentage points per SD of the segregation index; 95% CI: -0.08, -0.03; p < 0.001) and a higher probability of binge drinking (0.04 percentage points; 95% CI: 0.002, 0.07; p = 0.04) and heart disease (0.01 percentage points; 95% CI: 0.002, 0.15; p = 0.007). IV analyses also found that school segregation was associated with a lower probability of good self-rated health (-0.09 percentage points; 95% CI: -0.17, -0.02, p = 0.02) and a higher probability of binge drinking (0.17 percentage points; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.30, p = 0.008). For IV estimates, only binge drinking was robust to adjustments for multiple hypothesis testing. Limitations included self-reported outcomes and potential residual confounding and exposure misclassification.ConclusionsSchool segregation exposure in childhood may have longstanding impacts on Black adults' cardiovascular health. Future research should replicate these analyses in larger samples and explore potential mechanisms. Given the recent rise in school segregation, this study has implications for policies and programs to address racial inequities in CVD.

ObjectivesFew researchers have evaluated whether school racial segregation, a key manifestation of structural racism, affects child health, despite its potential impacts on school quality, social networks, and stress from discrimination. We investigated whether school racial segregation affects Black children's health and health behaviors.MethodsWe estimated the association of school segregation with child health, leveraging a natural experiment in which school districts in recent years experienced increased school segregation. School segregation was operationalized as the Black-White dissimilarity index. We used ordinary least squares models as well as quasi-experimental instrumental variables analysis, which can reduce bias from unobserved confounders. Data from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1997-2014, n = 1248 Black children) were linked with district-level school segregation measures. Multivariable regressions were adjusted for individual-, neighborhood-, and district-level covariates. We also performed subgroup analyses by child sex and age.ResultsIn instrumental variables models, a one standard deviation increase in school segregation was associated with increased behavioral problems (2.53 points on a 27-point scale; 95% CI, 0.26 to 4.80), probability of having ever drunk alcohol (0.23; 95% CI, 0.049 to 0.42), and drinking at least monthly (0.20; 95% CI, 0.053 to 0.35). School segregation was more strongly associated with drinking behaviors among girls.ConclusionsSchool segregation was associated with worse outcomes on several measures of well-being among Black children, which may contribute to health inequities across the life span. These results highlight the need to promote school racial integration and support Black youth attending segregated schools.

BackgroundSocial media offer a promising channel to deliver e-cigarette cessation interventions to adolescents and young adults (AYAs); however, interventions delivered on social media face challenges of low participant retention and decreased engagement over time. Peer mentoring has the potential to ameliorate these challenges.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to understand, from both the mentee and potential mentor perspective, the needs, expectations, and concerns of AYAs regarding peer mentoring to inform the development of social media-based peer mentoring interventions for e-cigarette cessation among AYAs.MethodsSeven focus groups, including four mentee groups and three potential mentor groups, were conducted with 26 AYAs who had prior experience with e-cigarette use and attempts to quit in the context of a social media-based e-cigarette cessation intervention. Discussion focused on preferred characteristics of peer mentors, expectations about peer mentoring, mentoring mode, mentor training, incentives for peer mentors, preferred social media platforms for intervention delivery, supervision, and concerns. Focus group transcripts were coded and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach.ResultsOverall, participants were receptive to peer mentoring in social media-based cessation interventions and believed they could be helpful in assisting e-cigarette cessation. Participants identified the most important characteristics of peer mentors to be of similar age and to be abstinent from e-cigarette use. Participants expected peer mentors would share personal experiences, provide emotional support, and send check-ins and reminders. Peer mentors supporting a group of mentees in combination with one-on-one mentoring as needed was the preferred mentoring mode. A group of 10 mentees with a mentor:mentee ratio of 1:3-5 was deemed acceptable for most participants. Participants expressed that mentor training should include emotional intelligence, communication skills, and the scientific evidence about e-cigarettes. Although monetary incentives were not the main motivating factor for being a peer mentor, they were viewed as a good way to compensate mentors' time. Instagram was considered an appropriate social media platform to deliver a peer-mentored intervention due to its functionality. Participants did not express many privacy concerns about social media-based peer mentoring, but mentioned that boundaries and community agreements should be set to keep relationships professional.ConclusionsThis study reflects the needs and preferences of young people for a peer mentoring intervention to complement a social media program to support e-cigarette cessation. The next step will be to establish the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of such a peer mentoring program.

BackgroundAs the only place in a store where all customers must pass through and wait, the checkout lane may be particularly influential over consumer purchases. Because most foods and beverages sold at checkout are unhealthy (e.g., candy, sweets, sugar-sweetened beverages, and salty snacks), policymakers and advocates have expressed growing interest in healthy checkout policies. To understand the extent to which such policies could improve nutrition equity, we assessed the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of purchasing items found at (i.e., from) checkout.MethodsWe assessed self-reported checkout purchasing and sociodemographic characteristics in a national convenience sample of adults (n = 10,348) completing an online survey in 2021.ResultsOver one third (36%) of participants reported purchasing foods or drinks from checkout during their last grocery shopping trip. Purchasing items from checkout was more common among men; adults < 55 years of age; low-income consumers; Hispanic, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, and non-Hispanic Black consumers; those with a graduate or professional degree; parents; and consumers diagnosed with type 2 diabetes or pre-diabetes (p-values < 0.05).ConclusionsPurchasing foods or beverages from store checkouts is common and more prevalent among low-income and Hispanic, American Indian or Alaska Native, and Black consumers. These results suggest that healthy checkout policies have the potential to improve nutrition equity.

ObjectivesWe assessed attitudes and perceptions and willingness to accept (WTA) varying incentive structures for completing tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic evaluation among patients in Uganda.MethodsWe surveyed 177 adult patients undergoing TB evaluation at 10 health centers between September 2018 and March 2019. We collected household sociodemographic information and assessed attitudes and perceptions of incentives. We surveyed patients regarding their willingness to complete TB diagnostic evaluation in exchange for incentives ranging in value from 500 Ugandan shillings (USh) to 25 000USh (~$0.15-$6.75). We compared associations between WTA and patient characteristics using ordered logistic regression.ResultsParticipant willingness to return to the health center to complete TB diagnostic evaluation increased proportionally with incentive amount. The median participant accepted between 2000 and 5000 USh. Cash (52%) and transportation vouchers (34%) were the most popular incentive types. Half of respondents preferred unconditional incentives; for a multiday evaluation, 84% preferred conditioning incentive receipt upon returning to the health center. In multivariate models, we found the pairwise difference between the third and lowest income quartile (aOR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.20-4.69; P = .01), younger age, and difficulty returning to the health center to be significantly associated with WTA higher incentive thresholds.ConclusionsIn Uganda, incentives such as cash transfers or transportation vouchers are an acceptable intervention for facilitating adherence to TB diagnostic evaluation. Household income is associated with preferred incentive structure and amount, especially for those at the cusp of the poverty threshold who are more likely to prefer unconditional and higher valued incentives. Targeted and context-specific socioeconomic supports for at-risk patients are needed to optimize outcomes.

The earned income tax credit (EITC) is the largest U.S. poverty alleviation program for families with children, and state EITC policies provide a modest supplement to the federal program. Yet there are few studies of the effects of state EITC policies on population health. We examined whether state EITC policies affect mental health and health behaviors. Participants were drawn from the 1995-2015 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a diverse national cohort study (N = 10,567). We used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis to examine the effects of state EITC programs among eligible individuals, accounting for secular trends among similar individuals in non-EITC states. Outcomes included self-reported general health, psychological distress, alcohol use, and smoking. The mean size of state EITC refunds in our sample was $265 for eligible individuals. In the overall sample, state EITC programs were not associated with any health outcomes of interest. This finding was robust to alternative specifications, and similar in subgroup analyses by gender and marital status. This study suggests that state EITC programs, which tend to provide smaller refunds than the federal program, may not be large enough to have a positive impact on mental health and health behaviors. These findings may inform policymaking related to the generosity of state EITC programs, especially as states seek to address the socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

PurposeEvaluate associations of adolescents' beverage marketing receptivity with sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) perceived harm and intake.DesignSchool-based cross-sectional health behavior survey.SettingSeven rural schools in California, 2019-2020.Subjects815 student participants in grades 9 or 10.MeasuresParticipants viewed 6 beverage advertisement images with brand obscured, randomly selected from a larger pool. Ads for telecommunications products were an internal control. Receptivity was a composite of recognizing, liking, and identifying the displayed brand (later categorized: low, moderate, high). Weekly SSB servings were measured with a quantitative food frequency questionnaire and perceived SSB harm as 4 levels ("no harm" to "a lot").AnalysisOutcomes SSB intake (binomial regression) and perceived harm (ordered logistic regression) were modeled according to advertisement receptivity (independent variable), with multiple imputation, school-level clustering, and adjustment for presumed confounders (gender, age, screen time, etc.).ResultsIn covariable-adjusted models, greater beverage advertisement receptivity independently predicted higher SSB intake (ratio of SSB servings, high vs. low receptivity: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.15, 1.89]) and lower perceived SSB harm (odds ratio, high vs. low receptivity: 0.59 [0.40, 0.88]). Perceived SSB harm was inversely associated with SSB intake.ConclusionBeverage advertisement receptivity was associated with less perceived SSB harm and greater SSB consumption in this population. Policy strategies, including marketing restrictions or counter-marketing campaigns could potentially reduce SSB consumption and improve health.

BackgroundThe Cancer Center Cessation Initiative (C3I) was launched in 2017 as a part of the NCI Cancer Moonshot program to assist NCI-designated cancer centers in developing tobacco treatment programs for oncology patients. Participating centers have implemented varied evidence-based programs that fit their institutional resources and needs, offering a wide range of services including in-person and telephone-based counseling, point of care, interactive voice response systems, referral to the quitline, text- and web-based services, and medications.MethodsWe used a mixed methods comparative case study design to evaluate system-level implementation costs across 15 C3I-funded cancer centers that reported for at least one 6-month period between July 2018 and June 2020. We analyzed operating costs by resource category (e.g., personnel, medications) concurrently with transcripts from semi-structured key-informant interviews conducted during site visits. Personnel salary costs were estimated using Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data adjusted for area and occupation, and non-wage benefits. Qualitative findings provided additional information on intangible resources and contextual factors related to implementation costs.ResultsMedian total monthly operating costs across funded centers were $11,045 (range: $5129-$20,751). The largest median operating cost category was personnel ($10,307; range: $4122-$19,794), with the highest personnel costs attributable to the provision of in-person program services. Monthly (non-zero) cost ranges for other categories were medications ($17-$573), materials ($6-$435), training ($96-$516), technology ($171-$2759), and equipment ($10-$620). Median cost-per-participant was $466 (range: $70-$2093) and cost-per-quit was $2688 (range: $330-$9628), with sites offering different combinations of program components, ranging from individually-delivered in-person counseling only to one program that offered all components. Site interviews provided context for understanding variations in program components and their cost implications.ConclusionsAmong most centers that have progressed in tobacco treatment program implementation, cost-per-quit was modest relative to other prevention interventions. Although select centers have achieved similar average costs by offering program components of various levels of intensity, they have varied widely in program reach and effectiveness. Evaluating implementation costs of such programs alongside reach and effectiveness is necessary to provide decision makers in oncology settings with the important additional information needed to optimize resource allocation when establishing tobacco treatment programs.

PurposeTo determine whether baseline fruit and vegetable (FV) intake or other predictors are associated with response to food vouchers (change in FV intake) among low-income adults.DesignSecondary analysis of a randomized, 2 x 2-factorial, community-based trial.SettingSan Francisco, California.Subjects359 low-income adults aged ≥21 years old.InterventionParticipants were mailed $20 of food vouchers monthly for 6 months, and randomized to 1 of 4 arms according to: eligible foods (FV only or any foods) and redemption schedule (weekly or monthly).MeasuresChange in FV intake measured in cup equivalents between baseline and month 6 of the trial, based on 24-hour dietary recalls.AnalysisQuantile multivariate regressions were employed to measure associations between key predictors and change in FV intake across study arms.ResultsFV-only weekly vouchers were associated with increased FV intake at the 25th percentile (0.24 cups/day, p = 0.048) and 50th percentile (0.37 cups/day, p = 0.02) of the distribution, but not at lower and higher quantiles. Response to the vouchers diminished 0.10 cups/day for each additional household member (p = 0.02).ConclusionResponse to food vouchers varied along the FV intake distribution, pointing to some more responsive groups and others potentially needing additional support to increase FV intake. Larger households likely need vouchers of higher dollar value to result in similar changes in dietary intake as that observed in smaller households.

BackgroundThe aim of this systematic review is to assess if penalty-based pay-for-performance (P4P) programs are more effective in improving quality and cost outcomes compared to two other payment strategies (i.e., rewards and a combination of rewards and penalties) for surgical care in the United States. Penalty-based programs have gained in popularity because of their potential to motivate behavioral change more effectively than reward-based programs to improve quality of care. However, little is known about whether penalties are more effective than other strategies.Materials and methodsA systematic literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guideline to identify studies that evaluated the effects of P4P programs on quality and cost outcomes for surgical care. Five databases were used to search studies published from 2003 to March 1, 2020. Studies were selected based on the PRISMA guidelines. Methodological quality of individual studies was assessed based on ROBINS-I with GRADE approach.ResultsThis review included 22 studies. Fifteen cross-sectional, 1 prospective cohort, 4 retrospective cohort, and 2 case-control studies were found. We identified 11 unique P4P programs: 5 used rewards, 3 used penalties, and 3 used a combination of rewards and penalties as a payment strategy. Five out of 10 studies reported positive effects of penalty-based programs, whereas evidence from studies evaluating P4P programs with a reward design or combination of rewards and penalties was little or null.ConclusionsThis review highlights that P4P programs with a penalty design could be more effective than programs using rewards or a combination of rewards and penalties to improve quality of surgical care.

While smoking is widely acknowledged to be a social activity, limited evidence exists on the extent to which friends influence each other during worksite-based tobacco cessation interventions. Drawing on data from adult smokers (N = 1823) in a large, cluster randomized controlled trial in worksites in Thailand, this study examines the presence of social spillovers in the decision to abstain from smoking. We leverage a unique aspect of social network structure in these data-the existence of non-overlapping friendship networks-to address the challenge of isolating the effects of peers on smoking behavior from the confounding effects of endogenous friend selection and bidirectional peer influence. We find that individuals with workplace friends who have abstained from smoking during the trial are significantly more likely to abstain themselves. Instrumental variables estimates suggest that abstinence after 3 and 12 months increases 26 and 32 percentage points, respectively, for each additional workplace friend who abstains. These findings highlight the potential for workplace interventions to use existing social networks to magnify the effect of individual-level behavior change, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where tobacco cessation support tends to be limited.

BackgroundEffective prevention-focused, value-based strategies are needed to improve oral health. Despite evidence that monetary incentives can motivate healthy behavior, well-powered studies have yet to examine incentives for improving children's oral hygiene.AimDescribe the rationale and design of the BEhavioral EConomics for Oral health iNnovation (BEECON) trial, which tests lottery-based monetary incentives as a consumer-oriented, value-based care model for improving children's oral hygiene.DesignPhase II, stratified, permuted block randomized, controlled, two-arm, parallel groups, prevention trial.SettingStudy visits occur at three Los Angeles, CA health clinics.ParticipantsTwo hundred and forty-four parent-child dyads with a child aged 6-48 months.InterventionsEligible dyads were randomized in equal allocation to one of two groups: lottery incentive group or waitlist (delayed incentive) control group. Weekly lottery incentives were offered for 6 months based on Bluetooth-recorded toothbrushing frequency. Both groups received weekly text message feedback on toothbrushing performance.OutcomesThe primary outcome was toothbrushing performance from baseline to 6 months, measured as the mean number of qualifying half-day Bluetooth-recorded episodes per week when the child's teeth were brushed. Secondary outcomes included toothbrushing performance sustainability through 12 months and dental caries status.ConclusionsBEECON offers a consumer-oriented approach to promoting value-based oral health care. We hypothesize that lottery-based incentives can improve oral hygiene in young children. Study results will inform programming efforts to enhance oral disease prevention in young children.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT03576326.

Objectives. To estimate the combined effect of California's Tobacco 21 law (enacted June 2016) and $2-per-pack cigarette excise tax increase (enacted April 2017) on cigarette prices and sales, compared with matched comparator states.Methods. We used synthetic control methods to compare cigarette prices and sales after the policies were enacted, relative to what we would have expected without the policy reforms. To estimate the counterfactual, we matched pre-reform covariate and outcome trends between California and control states to construct a "synthetic" California.Results. Compared with the synthetic control in 2018, cigarette prices in California were $1.89 higher ($7.86 vs $5.97; P

The U.S. is the only high-income country without a national paid family leave (PFL) policy. While a handful of U.S. states have implemented PFL policies in recent years, there are few studies that examine the effects of these policies on health. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that California's PFL policy-implemented in 2004-improved parent health outcomes. Data were drawn from the 1993-2017 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a large diverse national cohort study of U.S. families (N = 6,690). We used detailed longitudinal sociodemographic information about study participants and a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analytic technique to examine the effects of California's PFL policy on families who were likely eligible for the paid leave, while accounting for underlying trends in these outcomes among states that did not implement PFL policies in this period. Outcomes included self-rated health, psychological distress, overweight and obesity, and alcohol use. We found improvements in self-rated health and psychological distress, as well as decreased likelihood of being overweight and reduced alcohol consumption. Improvements in health status and psychological distress were greater for mothers, and reductions in alcohol use were greater for fathers. Results were robust to alternative specifications. These findings suggest that California's PFL policy had positive impacts on several health outcomes, providing timely evidence to inform ongoing policy discussions at the federal and state levels. Future studies should examine the effects of more recently implemented state and local PFL policies to determine whether variation in policy implementation and generosity affects outcomes.

BACKGROUND:The United States is the only high-income nation without universal, government-funded or -mandated health insurance employing a unified payment system. The US multi-payer system leaves residents uninsured or underinsured, despite overall healthcare costs far above other nations. Single-payer (often referred to as Medicare for All), a proposed policy solution since 1990, is receiving renewed press attention and popular support. Our review seeks to assess the projected cost impact of a single-payer approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We conducted our literature search between June 1 and December 31, 2018, without start date restriction for included studies. We surveyed an expert panel and searched PubMed, Google, Google Scholar, and preexisting lists for formal economic studies of the projected costs of single-payer plans for the US or for individual states. Reviewer pairs extracted data on methods and findings using a template. We quantified changes in total costs standardized to percentage of contemporaneous healthcare spending. Additionally, we quantified cost changes by subtype, such as costs due to increased healthcare utilization and savings due to simplified payment administration, lower drug costs, and other factors. We further examined how modeling assumptions affected results. Our search yielded economic analyses of the cost of 22 single-payer plans over the past 30 years. Exclusions were due to inadequate technical data or assuming a substantial ongoing role for private insurers. We found that 19 (86%) of the analyses predicted net savings (median net result was a savings of 3.46% of total costs) in the first year of program operation and 20 (91%) predicted savings over several years; anticipated growth rates would result in long-term net savings for all plans. The largest source of savings was simplified payment administration (median 8.8%), and the best predictors of net savings were the magnitude of utilization increase, and savings on administration and drug costs (R2 of 0.035, 0.43, and 0.62, respectively). Only drug cost savings remained significant in multivariate analysis. Included studies were heterogeneous in methods, which precluded us from conducting a formal meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS:In this systematic review, we found a high degree of analytic consensus for the fiscal feasibility of a single-payer approach in the US. Actual costs will depend on plan features and implementation. Future research should refine estimates of the effects of coverage expansion on utilization, evaluate provider administrative costs in varied existing single-payer systems, analyze implementation options, and evaluate US-based single-payer programs, as available.

ObjectivesIn this study, we used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted August-October 2017 to examine electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) product preferences in a national sample of adult smokers (N = 1154) who were also using ENDS or had not ruled out future use.MethodsThe DCE evaluated 5 ENDS attributes: relative harm; effectiveness for helping smokers quit; nicotine strength; flavor; and price. We asked participants to choose among their own cigarettes, 2 ENDS products whose attributes varied across tasks, or none. We analyzed ENDS preferences using multinomial, nested, and mixed logit regressions.ResultsSmokers preferred ENDS that are less harmful than cigarettes, are effective in helping smokers quit, are lower priced, and are not menthol-flavored. The marginal willingness to pay for an ENDS product was $8.40 when less harmful than cigarettes, $4.13 when of unknown effectiveness in helping quitting ($13.90 when effective), and $3.37 when ENDS are not menthol-flavored. Furthermore, the overall flavor preference is driven by tobacco smokers, not by menthol cigarette smokers who do prefer menthol-flavored ENDS.ConclusionsPolicies that affect perceptions of ENDS effectiveness in promoting cessation and their relative harm may alter smokers' ENDS preferences. Regulating flavors and price also may influence adult smokers' ENDS preference.

BackgroundApproximately one in every five adolescent girls in Kenya has either had a live birth or is pregnant with her first child. There is an urgent need to understand the language and symbols used to represent adolescent pregnancy, if the current trend in adolescent pregnancy is to be reversed. Agreement on the definition of a societal problem is an important precursor to a social issue's political prioritization and priority setting.MethodsWe apply the Public Arenas Model to appraise the environments, definitions, competition dynamics, principles of selection and current actors involved in problem-solving and prioritizing adolescent pregnancy as a policy issue. Using a focused ethnographic approach, we undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent sexual reproductive health networks at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews.FindingsWe found that existing definitions center around adolescent pregnancy as a "disease" that needs prevention and treatment, socially deviant behaviour that requires individual agency, and a national social concern that drains public resources and therefore needs to be regulated. These competing definitions contribute to the rarity of the topic achieving traction within the political agenda and contribute to conflicting solutions, such as lowering the legal age of consenting to sex, while limiting access to contraceptive information and services to minors.ConclusionThis paper provides a timely theoretical approach to draw attention to the different competing definitions and subsequent divergent interpretations of the problem of adolescent pregnancy in Kenya. Adolescent reproductive health stakeholders need to be familiar with the existing definitions and deliberately reframe this important social problem for better political prioritization and resource allocation. We recommend a definition of adolescent pregnancy that cuts across different arenas, and leverages already existing dominant and concurrent social and economic issues that are already on the agenda table.

Nutrition assistance programs are the subject of ongoing policy debates. Two proposals remain uninformed by existing evidence: whether restricting benefits to allow only fruit and vegetable purchases improves overall dietary intake, and whether more frequent distribution of benefits (weekly versus monthly) induces more fruit and vegetable consumption and less purchasing of calorie-dense foods. In a community-based trial, we randomly assigned participants to receive food vouchers that differed in what foods could be purchased (fruit and vegetables only or any foods) and in distribution schedule (in weekly or monthly installments, holding total monthly value constant). The use of vouchers for fruit and vegetables only did not yield significantly greater improvements than the unrestricted voucher did in terms of fruit and vegetable consumption or Healthy Eating Index (HEI) score. Weekly vouchers also failed to yield significantly greater improvements than monthly vouchers did. Proposed policies to make assistance more restricted or more frequent, while holding benefit value constant, might not improve nutrition among low-income Americans.

BackgroundDespite the high burden of adverse adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, it has remained a low political priority in Kenya. We examined factors that have shaped the lack of current political prioritization of adolescent SRH service provision.MethodsWe used the Shiffman and Smith policy framework consisting of four categories-actor power, ideas, political contexts, and issue characteristics-to analyse factors that have shaped political prioritization of adolescent SRH. We undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent SRH networks between February and April 2019 at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews.FindingsSeveral factors hinder the attainment of political priority for adolescent SRH in Kenya. On actor power, the adolescent SRH community was diverse and united in adoption of international norms and policies, but lacked policy entrepreneurs to provide strong leadership, and policy windows were often missed. Regarding ideas, community members lacked consensus on a cohesive public positioning of the problem. On issue characteristics, the perception of adolescents as lacking political power made politicians reluctant to act on the existing data on the severity of adolescent SRH. There was also a lack of consensus on the nature of interventions to be implemented. Pertaining to political contexts, sectoral funding by donors and government treasury brought about tension within the different government ministries resulting in siloed approaches, lack of coordination and overall inefficiency. However, the SRH community has several strengths that augur well for future political support. These include the diverse multi-sectoral background of its members, commitment to improving adolescent SRH, and the potential to link with other health priorities such as maternal health and HIV/AIDS.ConclusionIn order to increase political attention to adolescent SRH in Kenya, there is an urgent need for policy actors to: 1) create a more cohesive community of advocates across sectors, 2) develop a clearer public positioning of adolescent SRH, 3) agree on a set of precise approaches that will resonate with the political system, and 4) identify and nurture policy entrepreneurs to facilitate the coupling of adolescent SRH with potential solutions when windows of opportunity arise.

Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a powerful, quasiexperimental research design widely used in longitudinal policy evaluations with health outcomes. However, DiD designs face several challenges to ensuring reliable causal inference, such as when policy settings are more complex. Recent economics literature has revealed that DiD estimators may exhibit bias when heterogeneous treatment effects, a common consequence of staggered policy implementation, are present. To deepen our understanding of these advancements in epidemiology, in this methodologic primer, we start by presenting an overview of DiD methods. We then summarize fundamental problems associated with DiD designs with heterogeneous treatment effects and provide guidance on recently proposed heterogeneityrobust DiD estimators, which are increasingly being implemented by epidemiologists. We also extend the discussion to violations of the parallel trends assumption, which has received less attention. Last, we present results from a simulation study that compares the performance of several DiD estimators under different scenarios to enhance understanding and application of these methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundAlthough studies have shown associations between neighbourhood quality and chronic disease outcomes, such associations are potentially confounded by the selection of different types of people into different neighbourhood environments. We sought to identify the causal effects of neighbourhood deprivation on type 2 diabetes risk, by comparing refugees in Sweden who were actively dispersed by government policy to low-deprivation, moderate-deprivation, or high-deprivation neighbourhoods.MethodsIn this quasi-experimental study, we analysed national register data for refugees who arrived in Sweden aged 25-50 years, at a time when the government policy involved quasi-random dispersal of refugees to neighbourhoods with different levels of poverty and unemployment, schooling, and social welfare participation. Individuals in our sample were assigned to a neighbourhood categorised as high deprivation (≥1 SD above the mean), moderate deprivation (within 1 SD of the mean), or low deprivation (≥1 SD below the mean). The primary outcome was new diagnosis of type 2 diabetes between Jan 1, 2002, and Dec 31, 2010. We used multivariate logistic and linear regressions to assess the effects of neighbourhood deprivation on diabetes risk, controlling for potential confounders affecting neighbourhood assignment and assessing effects of cumulative exposure to different neighbourhood conditions.FindingsWe included data for 61 386 refugees who arrived in Sweden during 1987-91 and who were assigned to one of 4833 neighbourhoods. Being assigned to an area deemed high deprivation versus low deprivation was associated with an increased risk of diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1·22, 95% CI 1·07-1·38; p=0·001). In analyses that included fixed effects for assigned municipality, the increased diabetes risk was estimated to be 0·85 percentage points (95% CI -0·030 to 1·728; p=0·058). Neighbourhood effects grew over time such that 5 years of additional exposure to high-deprivation versus low-deprivation neighbourhoods was associated with a 9% increase in diabetes risk.InterpretationThis study makes use of a pre-existing governmental natural experiment to show that neighbourhood deprivation increased the risk of diabetes in refugees in Sweden. This finding has heightened importance in the context of the current refugee crisis in Europe.FundingUS National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, US National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, US National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, Swedish Research Council.

A critique of cash assistance programs is that beneficiaries may spend the money on "temptation goods" such as alcohol and tobacco. We exploit a change in the payment schedule of Peru's conditional cash transfer program to identify the impact of benefit receipt frequency on the purchase of temptation goods. We use annual household data among cross-sectional and panel samples to analyze the effect of the policy change on the share of the household budget devoted to four categories of temptation goods. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach, we find that larger, less frequent payments increased the expenditure share of alcohol by 55-80% and sweets by 10-40%, although the absolute magnitudes of these effects are small. Our study suggests that less frequent benefits scheduling may lead cash recipients to make certain types of temptation purchases.

IntroductionA theory within the social epidemiology field is that financial stress related to having inadequate financial savings may contribute to psychological stress, poor mental health and poor health-related behaviours among low-income US adults. Our objective is to test whether an intervention that encourages financial savings among low-income US adults improves health behaviours and mental health.Methods and analysisA parallel group two-arm controlled superiority trial will be performed in which 700 participants will be randomised to the intervention or a wait list. The intervention arm will be provided an online Individual Development Account (IDA) for 6 months, during which participants receive a $5 incentive (£3.2, €4.5) for every month they save $20 in their account (£12.8, €18), and an additional $5 if they save $20 for two consecutive months. Both groups will be provided links to standard online financial counselling materials. Online surveys in months 0 (prior to randomisation), 6 and 12 (6 months postintervention) will assess self-reported health behaviours and mental health among participants in both arms. The surveys items were tested previously in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national health interviews and related health studies, including self-reported overall health, health-related quality of life, alcohol and tobacco use, depression symptoms, financial stress, optimism and locus of control, and spending and savings behaviours. Trial data will be analysed on an intent-to-treat basis.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Stanford University (Protocol ID: 30641). The findings of the trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication.Trial registration numberIdentifier NCT02185612; Pre-results.

BackgroundChina has long kept its tobacco taxes below international standards. The Chinese government has cited two rationales against raising tobacco tax, namely, the unfair burden it places on low-income smokers and the ability of consumers to switch to cheaper brands.ObjectiveThis study examines how different socioeconomic subgroups of Chinese smokers switch brands in response to cigarette price changes.MethodsWe model smokers' choice of cigarette tier as a function of tier-specific prices. We examine heterogeneous responses to prices by estimating mixed logit models for different income and education subgroups that allow for random variation in smokers' preferences. We use data from three waves of the longitudinal International Tobacco Control China Survey, collected in six large Chinese cities between 2006 and 2009.FindingsLow-income and less educated smokers are considerably more likely to switch tiers (including both up-trading and down-trading) than are their high-socioeconomic status (SES) counterparts. For those in the second-to-lowest tier, a ¥1 ($0.16, or roughly 25%) rise in prices increases the likelihood of switching tiers by 5.6% points for low-income smokers and 7.2% points for less educated smokers, compared to 1.6% and 3.0% points for the corresponding high-SES groups. Low-income and less educated groups are also more likely to trade down compared to their high-SES counterparts.ConclusionsOnly a small percentage of low-income and less educated Chinese smokers switched to cheaper brands in response to price increases. Hence, the concern of the Chinese government that a cigarette tax increase will lead to large-scale brand switching is not supported by this study.

In addition to quitting and cutting consumption, smokers faced with higher cigarette prices may compensate in several ways that mute the health impact of cigarette taxes. This study examines three price avoidance strategies among adult male smokers in Thailand: trading down to a lower-priced brand, buying individual sticks of cigarettes instead of packs, and substituting roll-your-own tobacco for factory-manufactured cigarettes. Using two panels of microlevel data from the International Tobacco Control Southeast Asia Study, collected in 2005 and 2006, we estimate the effects of a substantial excise tax increase implemented throughout Thailand in December 2005. We present estimates of the marginal effects and price elasticities for each of five consumer behaviors. We find that, controlling for baseline smoking characteristics, sociodemographics, and policy variables, quitting is highly sensitive to changes in cigarette prices, but so are brand choice, stick-buying, and use of roll-your-own tobacco. Neglecting such strategic responses leads to overestimates of a sin tax's health impact, and neglecting product substitution distorts estimates of the price elasticity of cigarette demand. We discuss the implications for consumer welfare and several policies that mitigate the adverse impact of consumer responses.

BackgroundRecent studies have found that Chinese smokers are relatively unresponsive to cigarette prices. As the Chinese government contemplates higher tobacco taxes, it is important to understand the reasons for this low response. One possible explanation is that smokers buffer themselves from rising cigarette prices by switching to cheaper cigarette brands.ObjectiveThis study examines how cigarette prices influence consumers' choices of cigarette brands in China.MethodsThis study uses panel data from the first three waves of the International Tobacco Control China Survey, drawn from six large cities in China and collected between 2006 and 2009. The study sample includes 3477 smokers who are present in at least two waves (8552 person-years). Cigarette brands are sorted by price into four tiers, using excise tax categories to determine the cut-off for each tier. The analysis relies on a conditional logit model to identify the relationship between price and brand choice.FindingsOverall, 38% of smokers switched price tiers from one wave to the next. A ¥1 change in the price of cigarettes alters the tier choice of 4-7% of smokers. Restricting the sample to those who chose each given tier at baseline, a ¥1 increase in price in a given tier would decrease the share choosing that tier by 4% for Tier 1 and 1-2% for Tiers 2 and 3.ConclusionsChina's large price spread across cigarette brands appears to alter the brand selection of some consumers, especially smokers of cheaper brands. Tobacco pricing and tax policy can influence consumers' incentives to switch brands. In particular, whereas ad valorem taxes in a tiered pricing system like China's encourage trading down, specific excise taxes discourage the practice.